The Flux by Epistemix

At the Complex Systems Society of the Americas conference in Santa Fe, host John sits down with archaeologist and complexity scientist Stefani Crabtree to explore the unexpected paths that lead to agent-based modeling. From studying theater and music to traveling the world on a fellowship and working in contract archaeology, Stefani’s journey into computational modeling was anything but linear.In this episode, Stefani shares how agent-based models help researchers reconstruct the past from exchange networks in the American Southwest to the rise and collapse of hierarchy in ancestral Pueblo societies. She explains why modeling human systems is both powerful and controversial, how simple models can resolve decades-long academic debates, and why thinking like a modeler changes the way scientists approach complex questions.The conversation also explores how insights from archaeology can inform modern policy, including work with Aboriginal communities in Australia that influenced government decision-making. Along the way, Stefani reflects on “What the Flux” moments turning points where different choices might have changed history or her own life, from the halted expansion of the Mongol Empire to a near-career in music.It’s a wide-ranging discussion about complexity, history, and the power of asking “what if?”

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix, sits down with Paolo Gaudiano, a complexity scientist turned DEI innovator, whose journey spans neuroscience, agent-based modeling, and the business of inclusion. Together, they explore what happens when we stop treating diversity as a box to check and start understanding it as an emergent property of complex systems.Paolo shares how he uses agent-based modeling to connect individual experiences to organizational outcomes, revealing why attempts to “fix diversity” often fail and how measuring inclusion can transform both workplace culture and financial performance. He also explains the danger of “big data, little brain” thinking and how true insight requires combining domain expertise with dynamic modeling.Whether you’re a data scientist, executive, or systems thinker, this episode will challenge how you see data, decisions, and the future of organizational design.

Les Craig joins us to discuss how simulation and synthetic data are changing the way organizations prepare for infectious disease outbreaks. From helping public health leaders visualize complex scenarios to enabling pharmaceutical companies to explore new R&D pathways, Les explains how advanced modeling technology empowers faster, smarter decisions. This episode unpacks how simulation can move ideas from theory to action and why creating low-risk environments for experimentation is key to building long-term trust and value in emerging tech.

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier sits down with innovation pioneer Mickey McManus to explore what it means to design for uncertainty in a world where complexity is the norm. Mickey draws on decades of experience from leading Maya Design and shaping decision-support tools for DARPA, to helping build the Future of Learning team at Autodesk to share insights on how human-centered design, systems thinking, and simulation can empower better decisions when the stakes are high and clarity is scarce.Together, John and Mickey unpack stories ranging from battlefield strategies in Iraq to fifth-grade prototyping workshops, illustrating how the right tools, environments, and mindsets can turn chaos into creativity. They dive into the importance of creating interaction physics in digital tools, the role of cognitive diversity in teams, and how simulation both technological and social builds resilience and foresight.Whether you're a designer, strategist, educator, or technologist, this episode offers a compelling lens on how to build for adaptability, foster innovation, and empower decision-makers in an age of flux.

In this episode of The Flux, we explore how modeling trust, belief, and social sentiment can unlock deeper insights in public health. Our guest, Philippe Giabbanelli, shares how agent-based models are evolving to capture not just behaviors, but the opinions and social dynamics that drive them like vaccine hesitancy or trust in institutions. We discuss the challenges of representing complex human psychology in simulations, the importance of sentiment in shaping real-world outcomes, and how these models are being used to support decision-making in uncertain, high-stakes environments. If you’ve ever wondered how data can reflect what people think, not just what they do, this conversation offers a compelling look into the future of predictive modeling.

In a world full of linear thinking, Dan Eichelsdoerfer is building a company grounded in complexity. In this episode, Dan joins The Flux to discuss why agent-based models are finally ready for prime time and how Macrocosm is creating tools to simulate economic and energy systems with more nuance, flexibility, and realism than ever before.Dan talks about the interdisciplinary “glory days” of modeling inside Macrocosm, where economists, physicists, and data scientists come together to break old paradigms and challenge assumptions. From applying agent-based models to simulate energy markets to envisioning what sustainable economics might actually look like, this is a masterclass in thinking differently to make better decisions.If you'd like to reach out to Dan and his team, email them at [email protected].

On this episode of The Flux, agent-based models (ABMs) have long lived on the fringes of mainstream economics but that’s changing. Doyne Farmer breaks down how advances in computing and data are fueling a new era of bottom-up modeling. He explains where ABMs outperform traditional models, why certain fields (like epidemiology and traffic systems) adopted them earlier, and how economics is finally catching up. We explore the structural and behavioral complexity that ABMs are uniquely suited to handle and what it will take to shift institutional thinking in policy and business.

In this episode of The Flux, we talk with Laura Sheppard, a research fellow at University College London’s Centre for Longitudinal Studies, about how data mining can uncover powerful insights from unexpected sources. Laura shares her work using the British Library’s Ethos dataset, a comprehensive record of UK doctoral theses - to explore gender inequality in higher education. We discuss the process of inferring gender from names, the challenges of working with messy or incomplete data, and how publicly available datasets can be creatively repurposed to answer socially important questions. Laura also touches on her work with The Trussell Trust, combining geographic and census data to map food bank accessibility in the UK.This conversation is a deep dive into the art and science of data mining, and how thoughtful assumptions, transparent methodology, and a bit of creativity can turn raw data into meaningful research.

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier sits down with Andrew Crooks at the Complex Social Systems Society Conference in Santa Fe. They dive into the world of agent-based modeling (ABM) - what it is, why it matters, and how it helps us simulate and better understand human behavior in complex systems. From simulating traffic jams to modeling social influence on vaccine uptake, Andrew shares how data, geography, and synthetic populations are revolutionizing our ability to forecast and inform decisions. They also explore the growing role of AI tools in democratizing modeling, the evolution of computational capabilities, and even ask: what if we had run a simulation before Brexit?Whether you're a policy maker, student, or just ABM-curious, this episode is full of insights on how to think more strategically about the future - no flux capacitor required.

What if we could predict the impact of a pandemic, a policy change, or even a war before it happens? Hamdi Kavak joins The Flux to discuss how agent-based modeling enables researchers to explore "what if" scenarios and simulate real-world behaviors at both small and massive scales. We dive into the applications of ABM in government-funded projects, the difficulties of modeling millions of agents, and how better communication of simulation insights could improve public trust in data-driven decision-making. If you're curious about the future of modeling and simulation, you won’t want to miss this conversation.

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix, sits down with Paul Amoruso to explore his unexpected journey into the world of agent-based modeling (ABM). What started as a course recommendation turned into a passion for understanding complex systems and using data to drive better decisions.Paul shares insights from his academic path, the value of interdisciplinary collaboration, and why ABMs foster explainability in research. He also discusses how modeling could reshape fields like education and improve knowledge diffusion. Plus, in our What the Flux moment, Paul reflects on how we might have transformed traditional learning methods if we had embraced active learning sooner.Tune in for an engaging conversation on curiosity, computational social science, and the power of modeling to inform the future.

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier interviews Jim Malone at the Complex Social Systems Conference in Santa Fe. Jim, an experienced government acquisition professional, shares his fascinating journey from contracting to pursuing a PhD in Computational Social Science. He discusses the importance of understanding complexity in systems, particularly in government contracting and policy-making. Jim explores how modeling and data analysis can revolutionize our approach to measuring value in federal spending and its impact on various sectors. This thought-provoking conversation delves into the intersection of complexity science, policy, and the potential for creating more effective and value-driven government processes.

Welcome to The Flux! In this episode, host John Cordier, CEO at Epistemix, explores the intricacies of agent-based modeling and its impact on decision-making with Aaron Frank. Recorded live at the Complex Social System Society of America's conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico, Aaron shares his journey from traditional national security research to computational models and agent-based simulations. The discussion covers the evolution and application of agent-based modeling in national security, urban planning, public health, and beyond. Dive deep into how these models can create more informed decisions amidst uncertainty and their potential to transform various sectors. Join us for an enlightening conversation on modeling, data, and the future of complex systems analysis.00:00 Introduction to The Flux00:47 Meet Aaron Frank01:16 Journey into Agent-Based Modeling01:39 War Gaming and Computational Models04:30 Challenges in Gaming and Simulations08:32 Advancements in Agent-Based Modeling18:39 Agent-Based Modeling in Urban Design23:12 Policy Implications and Future Directions35:47 Advice for Aspiring Modelers

In this episode of The Flux, hosted by John Cordier, CEO at Epistemix, we delve into the fascinating world of agent-based modeling (ABM) with Tom Pike, co-lead for MESA. Recorded live at the Complex Systems Society conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico, Tom shares insights on democratizing ABM through Python, its significance in decision-making, and innovative applications such as COVID-19 policy modeling in Costa Rica. The discussion explores the accessibility challenges of ABM, the potential of large language models, and the transformative vision of 'Democracy 3.0.' Tune in to learn about the impact of ABM in fields ranging from economics to public policy and how it can lead to better decisions for a complex world.00:00 Introduction to The Flux00:47 Meet Tom Pike: Agent-Based Modeling Expert01:29 The Origins and Growth of MESA04:05 Innovative Applications of Agent-Based Modeling05:06 Future of Agent-Based Modeling and Accessibility06:58 Economic and Policy Implications10:17 Challenges and Opportunities in Complex Systems20:47 Advice for Aspiring Modelers

This episode explores the economic development potential of technology developed in New Mexico, focusing on industry-based research and the collaboration between companies, universities, and government labs. It delves into the evolution of technology, highlighting key insights from Dr. Brown of the Santa Fe Institute, whose work integrates the concepts of evolutionary technology and complexity economics, particularly through agent-based modeling and combinatorial science.00:00 Introduction to Economic Development in New Mexico00:09 The Triple Helix Model: Industry, Universities, and Government00:40 Shout Out to Dr. Brown and His Contributions00:54 Complexity Economics and Technology Evolution01:12 Understanding Combinatorial Science

In this episode of The Flux, hosted by John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix, we hear from Timothy Clancy, a researcher from the University of Maryland's START program. Recorded at the Complex Social Systems Society of the Americas Conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico, Clancy shares insights from his career, which spans government work and applied studies on national security. They discuss the evolution of modeling in policy-making, the challenges of visualizing complex data, and the importance of building trust with policy-makers. Clancy emphasizes the need for simplicity in communication, the enduring nature of integrating soft skills with technical models, and the crucial role of understanding organizational dynamics to drive impactful decisions. The conversation also touches on specific models he has worked on, including those related to countering ISIS and studying violence and instability, illustrating the importance of robust, scenario-driven simulations in informing policy.00:00 Introduction to The Flux00:47 Meet Timothy Clancy01:03 Timothy's Background and Work01:45 Challenges in Policy Making with Data02:58 Visualization and Communication in Modeling05:29 Timothy's Career Shift and Focus07:00 Emerging State Actor Model12:40 Modeling Sentiment and Radicalization20:35 Counterfactuals and Policy Making23:08 Navigating Policy Making Institutions31:41 Conference Insights and Conclusion

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier, CEO at Epistemix, interviews Sherwin Brown from MITRE. Sherwin shares his journey into agent-based modeling, starting from his background in health management and policy. He discusses the role of data science and analytics in solving complex problems, such as monitoring the impact of the Affordable Care Act and tackling issues like homelessness and opioid overdoses. Sherwin emphasizes the importance of visual storytelling in agent-based modeling and its potential to support decision-making in policy contexts. The episode also highlights the importance of community and curiosity in the field of agent-based modeling.00:00 Introduction to The Flux Podcast00:45 Meet Sherwin Brown from MITRE00:59 Sherwin's Journey into Agent-Based Modeling01:59 Affordable Care Act and Data Science Competitions02:21 Exploring Natural Language Processing04:04 Agent-Based Modeling in Policy Making05:54 Complex Relationship Between Homelessness and Opioid Overdoses07:04 Complex Social Systems Society Conference08:05 Future of Agent-Based Modeling09:11 Advice for Students Interested in Agent-Based Modeling10:17 Closing Remarks

In this episode of 'The Flux,' we dive deep into data-driven decision making with Bill Rand from NC State University. Join us as Bill discusses his work in agent-based modeling, social media misinformation, and various innovative projects. Discover how agent-based modeling can provide insights into human behavior, business analytics, and even intergenerational trauma. Learn how different modeling approaches can help forecast outcomes, refine decision-making processes, and provide better policy and business strategies. Perfect for anyone interested in AI, data science, and the social sciences.00:00 Introduction to the Flux Podcast00:20 Meet Bill Rand: Data-Driven Decision Making02:42 Applications of Agent-Based Modeling31:21 What the Flux Moment32:02 Reflections and Methodological Insights

In this episode of The Flux, join Dave Freed, Senior Director at Ansys, as he delves into the transformative world of computer simulations. With a rich history from Exa Corporation to OnScale and Ansys, Dave explores the evolution and future of simulations, highlighting their pivotal role in automotive, aerospace, and nuclear engineering. Discover how simulations have advanced to replace costly physical testing, improve accuracy, and prevent errors. Learn about intriguing real-world applications, the integration of AI in automating complex tasks, and the surge of simulation in life sciences. Dave also shares personal experiences and acknowledges mentors who've shaped his illustrious career.00:00 Introduction to The Flux Podcast00:19 Meet Dave Freed: CTO and Simulation Expert00:41 Dave's Career Journey in Simulation11:59 The Value of Simulation22:18 Simulation Accessibility and User Experience31:49 Future of Simulation and AI Integration

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier interviews Matt Madden, Director of the BYU Marketing Lab, about his work in making complex statistics and marketing analytics accessible. Madden discusses the lab's unique approach, which allows students to apply their skills in real-world consulting projects. They delve into key topics like market research techniques such as conjoint analysis, which helps students and clients understand consumer behavior more accurately than traditional surveys.Madden shares his journey from math education to statistics and ultimately to marketing, providing insights into how data can guide consumer insights while acknowledging its limitations. He highlights the challenges of relying solely on past data, emphasizing the need for creativity and risk-taking in decision-making. They also discuss integrating newer technologies, like AI and machine learning, into marketing analytics, exploring both the opportunities and concerns associated with increased data availability. Madden further addresses the importance of qualitative data, its challenges, and the evolving nature of market research.The episode closes with advice for students entering the marketing field, focusing on the importance of resilience, saying "no" to prevent burnout and the necessity of balancing data-driven decisions with human creativity and empathy.This episode is a must-listen for marketers, data enthusiasts, and business professionals seeking to harness data analytics while maintaining a consumer-focused, ethical approach.00:00 Introduction to The Flux00:45 Meet Matt Madden: BYU Marketing Lab Director01:03 The BYU Marketing Lab: Real Consulting Experience02:08 Conjoint Analysis: A Market Research Technique05:59 From Math Education to Marketing Analytics07:32 Predictive Modeling in Healthcare11:14 The Future of Marketing Analytics13:39 Challenges in Data Privacy and Forecasting20:02 Entrepreneurship and Qualitative Data at Scale24:18 Industry's Overexposure to Surveys24:44 Consumer Feedback Fatigue25:32 A Rare Example of Effective Feedback27:04 The Importance of Data in Business Decisions27:58 Challenges for Small Businesses in Using Data30:30 Disaster Recovery in Data Analytics32:59 The Future of Modeling and Machine Learning35:33 Advancements in User Interface and Visualization37:28 The Evolution of Programming Languages41:19 Advice for Graduating Students

In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier sits down with Don Burke, co-founder of Epistemix and a trailblazing epidemiologist, to explore the fascinating intersection of infectious disease research, artificial intelligence, and agent-based modeling (ABM). Burke shares his journey from a traditional career in infectious disease research to becoming a passionate advocate for modeling and simulation, offering a behind-the-scenes look at his groundbreaking work with HIV, vaccines, and global disease prevention.Burke recounts his early days in the military, developing vaccines for tropical diseases and his epiphany when he first encountered genetic algorithms and artificial intelligence. This moment sparked a shift in his approach to public health, leading him to apply simulation methods to complex biological and social systems, ultimately culminating in his co-founding of Epistemix. He discusses his pivotal role in creating agent-based models for predicting disease outbreaks like smallpox, avian flu, and most recently, COVID-19, illustrating the power of simulation in making better decisions in public health.Beyond infectious disease, Burke reflects on the future of modeling, emphasizing its potential to not only tackle epidemics but also simulate human behavior, social contagions, and decision-making processes—showing how these tools are critical for addressing broader societal challenges. Throughout, Burke conveys his belief that interdisciplinary collaboration and data-driven insights are essential for solving today’s most pressing global issues.This episode offers an in-depth, accessible exploration of how AI, computational social science, and agent-based modeling are shaping the future of public health and decision-making across industries.Timestamps:00:00 Introduction to the Flux Podcast00:19 Meet Don Berg: From Infectious Disease Physician to Modeler00:30 Early Career and Vaccine Development01:47 HIV Research and Genetic Algorithms04:29 The Epiphany: Modeling Viral Evolution06:52 Transition to Johns Hopkins and Building Modeling Skills08:16 9/11 and the Rise of Biodefense Modeling12:42 The MIDAS Program and Agent-Based Modeling20:23 Expanding Agent-Based Modeling Beyond Infectious Diseases26:43 The Campfire Concept: Collaborative Modeling30:12 Lessons from DA Henderson and Smallpox Eradication32:49 Reflections on a Career in Modeling and Simulation34:49 The Future of Modeling and Simulation39:11 Current Projects and Historical Insights

In this episode of The Flux, John Cordier interviews Rob Axtell fromGeorge Mason University, where he leads the largest graduate programin agent-based modeling (ABM) globally. Axtell shares his journey intocomplex systems modeling and how the field has evolved since the1990s. He explains how George Mason’s Ph.D. program inComputational Social Science is shaping the next generation of expertswho go on to roles in government, research, and the private sector.They discuss the power of agent-based models to simulate real-worlddynamics, from consumer behavior to macroeconomics, highlighting theincreasing availability of data and computing power that allows ABM tocompete with traditional models used by institutions like central banks.Axtell emphasizes the need for more empirical grounding in ABM andthe potential to build large-scale, highly detailed models, including theexciting possibility of simulating entire economies.Axtell also touches on the importance of modeling social complexity atthe individual level, the challenges of past limitations in data, and theunique potential of ABM to provide a more accurate picture of systemslike financial markets.For those new to the field, Axtell offers practical advice on gettingstarted, emphasizing the value of tools like NetLogo as a gateway toABM. Whether you're a student, researcher, or data enthusiast, thisepisode provides a deep dive into the cutting-edge applications of ABMand its future impact.00:00 Welcome to The Flux Podcast00:18 Meet Rob Axtell: Expert in Agent-Based Simulation01:07 Overview of George Mason's Computational Social Science Program01:45 Career Paths for Graduates03:34 Rob Axtell Journey into Agent-Based Modeling05:58 The Evolution and Impact of Agent-Based Models08:37 Applications and Future of Agent-Based Modeling11:35 Challenges and Opportunities in Agent-Based Modeling14:06 The Importance of High-Fidelity Models16:31 Policy Implications and Real-World Applications29:41 Technical Advances and Future Directions36:44 Advice for Aspiring Agent-Based Modelers39:09 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In The Intersection of Science Fiction and Reality episode of The Flux podcast, host John Cordier engages in a conversation with Sam Arbesman, Scientist-in-Residence at Lux Capital and Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation. They explore how science fiction, video games, and computational social science intersect to influence real-world innovations.Harbisman shares how early experiences like playing SimCity and reading Isaac Asimov's Foundation Trilogy sparked his interest in complexity science and computational modeling. They discuss the concept of psychohistory from Foundation, and how it inspired modern computational social science to analyze societal behaviors on a large scale.They also touch on how venture capital plays a role in transforming science fiction ideas into reality, with Lux Capital supporting innovations that blur the lines between science fact and fiction. Arbesman reflects on the increasing complexity of technological systems, emphasizing how understanding these systems requires new tools and thinking, akin to studying biological systems.Ultimately, this episode highlights the value of scenario planning, counterfactuals, and complexity science in decision-making and innovation, making a compelling case for the importance of these methodologies in navigating an uncertain future.Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:16 Meet Sam Arbesman01:00 Sam's Journey into Complex Systems01:34 The Influence of SimCity and Science Fiction03:03 The Foundation Trilogy and Psychohistory07:01 Science Fiction's Real-World Impact13:08 The Role of Venture Capital in Innovation14:19 The Future of Deep Tech and Emerging Technologies19:12 The Importance of Counterfactuals and Scenario Planning30:20 Encouraging Complexity Science Education35:44 The Future of Simulation and Computational Science

In this episode of The Flux, John Cordier interviews Matt Kohler, Applied Complexity Scientist at MITRE and President of the Computational Social Science Society of the Americas, about the transformative power of agent-based modeling (ABM). Kohler explains how ABM simulates complex human systems and helps decision-makers understand the ripple effects of their choices. From anthropology to economics, Kohler shares examples of how ABM is helping scientists and leaders explore new insights.As technological advancements in data, hardware, and software drive ABM to new heights, Kohler discusses its expanding role in solving real-world challenges, from traffic modeling to financial crises. With its potential to revolutionize industries by providing a clearer view of how complex systems evolve, ABM is poised to become an indispensable tool for policy-makers, researchers, and organizations.This episode is for anyone interested in the intersection of complexity science and decision-making, and how ABM is shaping the future of predictive modeling.Timestamps:01:00 Matt Kohler's Flux Moment03:17 Agent-Based Modeling Insights05:13 Applications and Future of Agent-Based Modeling08:56 Challenges and Successes in Agent-Based Modeling23:41 Economic Theories and Agent-Based Modeling26:58 Getting Started with Agent-Based Modeling29:10 Future of Computational Social Science

In the inaugural episode of The Flux, John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix, interviews Josh Epstein, Director of the Agent-Based Modeling Lab at NYU and a prominent figure at the Santa Fe Institute. The discussion revolves around the potential and progress of agent-based modeling (ABM), particularly in public health, economics, and beyond.Epstein shares insights into how ABM creates simulations of artificial societies to generate real-world patterns like epidemics or wealth distributions. He highlights the generative explanatory standard, which uses individual agent behaviors to explain macroscopic phenomena, contrasting it with traditional models that assume rational actors. Epstein introduces Agent Zero, a framework offering an alternative to the rational actor model by incorporating emotional, cognitive, and social elements into agent behavior. His work emphasizes the need for cognitively plausible agents in simulations, moving beyond simplified assumptions in fields like epidemiology and economics.This episode underscores the transformative potential of ABM in areas such as public policy, disease modeling, and economic forecasting, stressing the importance of integrating human behavior into models to improve decision-making. Epstein envisions ABM becoming a core tool in tackling complex, real-world problems, with the field poised for continued growth as computational power advances.Timestamps00:00 Introduction to The Flux Podcast00:23 Meet Josh Epstein: Pioneer in Agent-Based Modeling02:32 Exploring Agent-Based Models04:59 Generative Social Science and Agent Zero07:31 Inverse Generative Social Science15:58 Behavioral Dynamics in Epidemiology19:00 Leadership and Decision Making in Modeling19:33 Future of Agent-Based Modeling20:35 Global Adoption of Agent-Based Models22:34 Visualization and Pandemic Modeling33:46 Why Model?37:34 Optimism for the Future