The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more

As I’m sure you know, it is all but impossible to destroy gold. Yes, yes, nuclear explosions, blah blah, mercury, aqua regia, but to all intents and purposes gold is permanent. It’s been here since before the earth itself, and it’ll be about long after it’s gone, shining away.That also means that all the gold that has ever been mined still exists. Some of it has been lost, of course, but it’s still there somewhere, even if it’s sitting in sunken Spanish galleon off the coast of Tobago.There are just under 7 billion ounces of gold in the world, and just over 8 billion people, so about 4/5 of an ounce per person. Until the gold rushes of the 19th century, there were roughly 2/5 of an ounce per person.As you can see by the chart below there is now more gold per capita than ever before.What’s really interesting, however, is how closely cumulative gold supply tracks global population growth. The two rise at remarkably similar rates over centuries.Gold supply expands slowly, organically and roughly in line with humanity itself. No central bank planned it that way.Right there is why gold is nature’s money. But there are some changes afoot.Population growth is slowing rapidly. It is actually going backwards in some parts of the world. The Matt Ridley argument is that this is a result of prosperity. Merryn Somerset Webb thinks it’s even more specific than that. She blames smart phones. She may have a point. South Korea is perhaps the most advanced smart phone nation. When I went there in 2015 I remember thinking that, technologically, it was a good 10 years ahead of Western Europe. Recently we learn it has the slowest population growth of the lot.Annual gold mining supply is at record levels, however: 3,600 tonnes last year. Does this mean gold per capita is set to increase?Probably but there is a big but and it looks like this.How about that for a table?No new major discoveries - 2 million ounces or more - in 2023 or 2024. As far as I know there were three in 2025 - in China, in Saudi Arabia and in Iran.But look at the trend. We have been below the 10-discovery threshold since 2009. Discoveries peaked in 1995.The long-term implications of this are enormous. If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.Gold is not like other commodities, copper, oil or wheat, say, where annual production dramatically affects price because so much of what was produced previously has already been consumed. Almost all the gold ever mined still exists somewhere, as i say.But mining supply still matters at the margin.The collapse in discoveries has not yet translated into falling production because it takes such a long time to bring a deposit into production. The average time from discovery to production is now around 17 years.But we are now roughly 17 years on from the late 2000s, when the discovery rate began to fall off a cliff.In other words, we may not be far away from the point where the collapse in discoveries finally starts feeding through into stagnating or declining mine supply.And unlike previous cycles, there do not appear to be dozens of giant new deposits waiting quietly in the wings.(Obviously, a higher gold price offsets some of this because lower-grade ore becomes economic to mine.)Here is the long-term production chart. You can see how supply has largely plateaued over the last ten years .Perhaps that also helps explain why, after 50,000 years of use (yes, that figure is correct), demand for gold from individuals, institutions and central banks remains so strong.Lots of interviews to share with you this weekI’ve been promoting the release of The Secret History of Gold in the US. First up with my US BFF, Tom WoodsOn Financial Sense with Jim Puplava (audio only)On Kitco News with Jeremy SzafronAnd, finally, Clem ChambersLast, but not least, here is this week’s commentary, in case you missed it, looking at the precarious state of the UK’s finances.Thank you for being a subscriber to the Flying Frisby.Until next timeDominic This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comIt is always nice to be a national of a country that is leading the pack. It makes one proud to be a world leader.When it comes to cracking sovereign debt markets, however, you do not want to be leading the pack.But that is where we are in the UK.Even Mohamed El-Erian is tweeting about it.Yields on 30-year gilts, ie UK long-term government borrowing costs, hit 5.75% this week, the highest level since 1998, and the highest in the G7.It’s local election day in the UK today, one of those events when we are kidded into thinking that a cross on a piece of paper is going to make the slightest iota of difference. This has barely been discussed as an issue, when it should be front and centre.The cost of servicing UK debt is now north of £100 billion, roughly 7% of annual expenditure.All you young folks grinding away at your desks to pay Income Tax, that’s what much your effort is being expended on: servicing debt. It’s not like you are contributing to anything new. As I say in Daylight Robbery, debt is a tax on the future. UK public spending is now £48,000 per household. That’s how out of control things now are.This is only going to get worse. You have to own gold.One reason sterling has held together better than many expected is that UK interest rates remain high.Whether the Bank of England formally raises rates further or not, the market itself is already tightening financial conditions. Happy mortgage day, everyone. The post-2008 era of low rates is well and truly over.So-called yield curve control will have to come, to stop the government admitting they are insolvent. And that means further currency debasement.All the political turmoil that’s coming as Labour tries to get rid of Keir Starmer after today’s rout is not going to help. The next General Election is still three years away. Labour will put that off for as long as possible as half of them are going to lose their seats.If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.When the next General Election does come, the result is going to be, as they say in women’s circles, “well hung”. No party has more than 25% of the vote. Reform is currently polling highest on 25% (next are the Tories and Labour on 19%), but thanks to our electoral system Reform’s 25% will not necessarily translate into 25% of seats, unless deals are done. The most likely victor will be a coalition, probably RefCon, but don’t discount the possibility of GreenLab.I should perhaps say this. 5.75% is not “instant crisis” serious, and the yield has come off a little amidst the latest potential for peace in Iran. Today it’s 5.63%. We are now at the “the market is starting to ask questions” stage.For context, in 1992 long-dated yields went to 9% even while the base rate hit 15% on Black Wednesday itself.We can survive 5.75% for a little bit, but as you can see from the chart below: this is a upwards trend and it is going higher.The UK is uniquely vulnerable: large fiscal deficits, persistent current account deficits, high debt-to-GDP, high taxes, high energy costs, heavy state-spending commitments, no political appetite for belt-tightening, low growth, low productivity, a service-sector-led economy much of which can be replaced by AI, financial services suffocated by regulation, short average debt maturity rolling constantly into new rates, the Bank of England now selling gilts not buying. Then there are the demographic issues: an ageing population, the most productive leaving, and a reliance on foreign capital which, at present, is not coming but going.What does this all translate to? Higher mortgage rates, increased government refinancing costs, higher taxes as a result, forced spending cuts, pension funds and leveraged financial institutions coming under pressure, weaker growth and sterling vulnerability.If you are a reader from outside the UK, you can look at the UK and know what is likely coming to you soon after. The government itself will get into a terminal loop: higher yields → higher debt servicing → larger deficits → more issuance → higher yields.

Something of a thought experiment today, motivated by the fact that I don’t want to go through another bear market in mining. I’m done with them. The false dawns, the endless grinding declines, the frustration.You might remember me saying, mid bear market a few years ago, “One more bull market and I’m done.”So the question I’m asking today is, “when can we expect this bull market to end?” It might already be over, for all I know. Or there might be another five years in the tank.I’m asking this question because I’m finding myself more and more tempted by high-risk mining exploration plays. I’m seeing value in companies that today have a market cap of C$50 million that a year ago I would have been more reluctant to invest in when their market caps were under C$10 million.Last week I bought one. I like it. But the way I bought it ignored all the risk-aversion built up over ten years of bear market.If we are in a secular bull trend for metals, then companies like this will do very well. But come a bear market, they will grind lower and lower, eventually reaching a point where they trade for little more than their cash value.My broad thesis for gold and silver, as you know, is that we trade sideways for a year, while the market works through the excesses of 2025. A mid-cycle pause, so to speak, before we eventually go to the $7 to $10,000 by the end of the decade. At present I feel more bullish about base metals such as copper and zinc. Rising prices here will preserve the bull market in mining more generally.But this is just one writers’ thesis.The mining cycleSo today we are going to study two long-term charts.I have got a fantastic chart of the copper price, adjusted for inflation, going all the way back to 1900. Copper is a good proxy for industrial metals and to some extent gold and silver as well. There is a lot to learn from this chart, some of it quite unexpected.Yes, mining and mining methods have changed over the years. Grades used to be a lot higher (there were higher amounts of metal in the rock) but this is offset by improved extraction methods meaning lower grade rock is now economic. Bottom line the world is consuming more copper than ever before.The mining cycle however still exists. Today, if anything it takes longer than ever before. If there is a shortage of supply of metal resulting in a price rise, it still takes many years and a lot of investment to increase supply from existing mines. Companies, which tend to be risk-averse, have to be persuaded for example that the higher price warrants the extra investment - that the higher price is here to stay. Once the investment is made it can take a long time to build out the mine. Then there are regulators to get past. This can take years too.As for new mines it can take over a decade or more to take a mine from discovery to production. Making the discovery in the first place can take years too.All the while there is a shortage of metal and prices keep on creeping up.Eventually there will be an excess of metal and prices start falling again. Then all the mines need to be shut down. That takes time. Once they’re shut and everyone has lost their shirt, there is considerable reluctance to ever do anything again (see my opening comment)Then the metal price starts going up again.The world may be unrecognisable from the first half of the 20th century. The mining cycle is unchanged however.So what do these cycles actually look like over the long term? And more importantly, where are we now?To answer that, we need to look at two charts. One, as I say, goes back to 1900. The other is the oldest mining index there is.One thing to keep in mind as you look at these charts: the biggest gains in mining don’t come at the end of a bull market. They come early. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

The US dollar is rising fast – and that’s caused a fundamental shift in the investment landscape, says Dominic Frisby. Here, he explains what that means for you. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe