The Hinrich Foundation Trade Podcast

In this special edition of the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA sits down with Dawn Shackleford, President of Looking Glass Trade, LLC, to analyze the Trump administration’s pivot to Section 122 tariffs as a rapid, temporary workaround after legal setbacks, examining the credibility of its balance-of-payments justification and the roles of the IMF and WTO in assessing its implications for US trade policy. The Trump administration’s turn to Section 122 tariffs reflects a search for speed and legal durability in advancing its trade agenda after the Supreme Court blocked the use of emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.   Designed as a temporary measure, Section 122 allows tariffs of up to 15% for 150 days, positioning the policy as a stopgap while more permanent tools — such as Section 232 and Section 301 — are pursued. Yet its reliance on a balance-of-payments justification raises questions about credibility, as such crises typically involve acute external imbalances and are subject to scrutiny by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) within World Trade Organization (WTO) processes.  Shackleford explains how the United States may be leveraging timing, procedural complexity, and partial product coverage to sustain the tariffs while remaining formally engaged in multilateral rules, arguing that the move underscores both the constraints of existing trade commitments and the continued relevance — and tension — of the WTO system. Tune in to this podcast as Dawn Shackleford, President of Looking Glass Trade, LLC, and Consultant at the Hinrich Foundation, joins the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA to discuss the Trump administration’s Section 122 tariffs, what they reveal about US trade policy, and the roles of the IMF and WTO. The podcast follows up on Shackleford’s recent article for the Hinrich Foundation, “Trump asserts trade payments problems. The IMF may want to sharpen its pencils.” Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In an Asia Insight podcast, Doug Strub moderates a discussion with Evan Medeiros and Gerard DiPippo on Dr. Medeiros’s Asia Policy essay “A New Era of U.S.-China Interaction: From Competing to Racing.” The essay examines the U.S.-China trade war in 2025 as a possible turning point in the U.S.-China competition, arguing that the trade war created new power dynamics around a supply chain race that centers on leveraging chokepoints in critical minerals and advanced technologies.Access the full report here. Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA sits down with Keith Rockwell, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, to examine why the WTO has reached an existential turning point as longstanding principles such as MFN treatment and consensus decision-making come under growing strain, and why modest reforms may not be enough to revive a system rooted in decades-old rules. The World Trade Organization (WTO) is facing mounting pressure as its core rules and negotiating processes struggle to keep pace with a more fragmented and politicized global economy. What was once designed as a forum for consensus among a small group of 23 like-minded economies has become increasingly difficult to manage with 166 members and divergent interests. At the same time, key principles such as “most-favoured-nation" (MFN) treatment and consensus decision-making — once central to the system’s transparency and predictability — are now contributing to the WTO’s institutional paralysis. Rockwell argues that the current crisis has been years in the making, pointing to early warning signs such as governments blocking even routine steps like approving meeting agendas, as well as a growing shift toward plurilateral agreements among groups of willing members. As governments explore alternative pathways outside the WTO framework, the risk is not only institutional drift but a broader shift in how global trade rules are written. The discussion examines what happens if the WTO can no longer deliver and what is at stake for the global trading system. Tune in to this podcast as Keith Rockwell, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, joins the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA to unpack the WTO’s growing paralysis and dysfunction, from blocked negotiations to the rise of plurilateral agreements, and what this means for global trade governance. The podcast follows up on Rockwell’s recent paper for the Hinrich Foundation, “In dire distress: Modest reforms won’t save the WTO.”   Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA sits down with Mariko Watanabe, Professor with the Faculty of Economics at Gakushuin University, to examine how China’s pursuit of industrial scale has driven manufacturing dominance while fueling systemic overcapacity and mounting tensions in the global trading system. China’s manufacturing dominance — now accounting for more than 30% of global output — reflects four decades of industrial strategy, state planning, and coordinated investment that have built one of the world’s most integrated production ecosystems. Yet the same system, anchored in the government’s Catalogue of Industrial Guidance, has also encouraged waves of investment into favored sectors regardless of market demand. This has fueled persistent overcapacity in industries ranging from steel and solar panels to electric vehicles and batteries, contributing to falling prices, global trade frictions, and what some economists describe as “immiserizing growth,” where expanding output depresses prices to the point that export earnings remain modest. As geopolitical rivalry with the United States intensifies, China increasingly treats industrial scale as a strategic asset, reinforcing a cycle of capacity expansion that risks deepening supply-chain fragmentation and destabilizing global markets.  Watanabe argues that addressing these pressures will require both domestic rebalancing toward consumption in China and stronger international cooperation — including more effective trade rules, safeguards, and coordinated action among middle powers — to prevent the gains from industrial scale from concentrating in a single economy.  Tune in to this podcast as Mariko Watanabe, Professor with the Faculty of Economics at Gakushuin University, joins the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA to assess how China’s catalog-based industrial policy has driven remarkable manufacturing growth while generating structural distortions at home and growing frictions abroad. The podcast follows up on Watanabe’s recent article for the Hinrich Foundation, “China’s industrial policy a recipe for overcapacity.” Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA sits down with Stewart Paterson, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, to unpack China’s rare earth monopoly and strategies taken by the West to break its dominance.  China’s control over rare earth minerals stems less from geology than from decades of industrial strategy, subsidies, lax environmental standards, and dominance over processing and refining. Recent export controls have exposed Western vulnerabilities, many rooted in offshoring and the loss of industrial ecosystems needed for advanced technologies. While the United States, the European Union, and allies have begun responding through legislation, investment, and initiatives such as the Minerals Security Partnership, diversification will take at least a decade and cannot be achieved through one-off interventions. Paterson emphasized that rare earths are only one example of broader hidden dependencies, warning that true economic security requires coordinated, cross-border industrial and trade strategies grounded in geopolitical alignment rather than isolated national solutions.Tune into this podcast as Stewart Paterson, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, joins the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA to break down how China built its rare earths monopoly and what it means for global economic security and supply-chain resilience. The podcast follows up on Paterson’s recent paper for the Hinrich Foundation, “Lessons from how China played its rare earth card.”Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this edition of the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, Yuka Hayashi, Vice President of The Asia Group, sits down with former Wall Street Journal senior editor Paul Beckett to unpack the effects of the Trump administration’s tariffs on automakers around the world amid heightened global trade tensions.  The impact of President Trump’s auto tariffs has been uneven, with Japan, South Korea, and Germany most affected due to heavy reliance on US auto exports. Company exposure varies widely — Mitsubishi Motors faces full tariffs due to total imports for US sales, while Tesla and Ford are less affected due to complete domestic production.  Despite the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, Trump imposed steep tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, citing national security under Section 232. Automakers have partly absorbed costs, but consumer prices are rising. The competition for auto production is fuelling political and economic strains globally. Tune into this podcast as Yuka Hayashi, Vice President of The Asia Group, joins former Wall Street Journal senior editor Paul Beckett, in an interview hosted by the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA and supported by the Hinrich Foundation, to break down how Trump’s auto tariffs are reshaping global supply chains as key automakers are hit and trade relations become strained. The podcast follows up on The Asia Group’s recent paper for the Hinrich Foundation, “Tariffs hit some automakers more than others.” Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, Bloomberg's technology editor Vlad Savov sits down with Hinrich Foundation research contributor Michael Enright, professor in Global Business at Northeastern University, to unpack how smartphones have become a central battleground in the US-China tech rivalry.  The smartphone industry has become a key front in the US-China tech rivalry, with Chinese brands holding 60% of the global market share. China's industrial policies, such as Made in China 2025, have been crucial in advancing its tech sector though Chinese firms still rely on foreign technology. The US-China trade tensions have led to a decoupling in tech, but deep interdependence in manufacturing makes full separation difficult. Enright presents that going forward, both nations will likely pursue separate supply chains, with the US leading in advanced tech while global manufacturing becomes more dispersed. Both the governments and the tech companies will need to delicately balance the cost, competitiveness, and strategic independence in a rapidly shifting trade environment.Tune into this podcast as Michael Enright, Pierre Choueiri Family Professor in Global Business at Northeastern University, joins Bloomberg tech editor Vlad Savov in a podcast co-organized by the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA and the Hinrich Foundation to break down how smartphones now represent a convergence of national security, corporate interests, and supply chain economics in the US-China technology competition. The podcast follows up on Enright’s recent article for the Hinrich Foundation, "China’s smartphone producers take on the world."Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA sits down with Naoise McDonagh, Senior Lecturer, Edith Cowan University, to unpack the crucial role of rare earth minerals in the global economy.  Rare earths are vital for advanced manufacturing, powering industries like electric vehicles, defence, and robotics. China dominates their supply, controlling 90% of processed rare earths, which gives it significant geopolitical leverage. Rare earths are classified as critical minerals due to their strategic importance and supply chain vulnerabilities. While countries like the US and Australia are seeking alternatives, China's processing monopoly and price volatility complicate efforts. Australia, with projects like Lynas, aims to reduce dependency, but global demand, especially from China, poses ongoing challenges. McDonagh concludes that the rare earth market is shifting towards strategic, state-backed production partnerships, particularly with allied nations. Tune into this podcast as Naoise McDonagh, Senior Lecturer, Edith Cowan University, joins the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA to break down the crucial role of rare earth minerals and how Australia is laying the grounds to position itself as an alternative supplier of China in rare earth elements. The podcast follows up on McDonagh’s recent paper for the Hinrich Foundation, “Australia’s rare earths lie between economic security and liberal markets.” Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA sits down with Senior Research Fellow Stewart Paterson to unpack the US dollar’s global dominance and what we are still getting wrong. As the linchpin of the international monetary system, the US dollar’s role extends far beyond America's borders, influencing trade flows, shaping investment decisions, and anchoring global financial stability. Beneath the surface of this dominance lies a host of unresolved tensions, from sustained trade imbalances and currency misalignments to the political and economic strains these dynamics impose on both emerging and advanced economies alike. While the Trump administration has imposed protectionist measures, such as tariffs, to address concerns about domestic industry and employment, the prolonged weakening of the dollar since January has resulted not from these policies but from a deeper set of worries among investors across asset classes over the intense and ongoing fiscal and business uncertainty created by the administration’s policies. Though Paterson found much to dislike about the way Trump’s tariffs were derived, he notes that an inadvertent outcome may be the real effective depreciation of the US dollar. Such weakening is needed if the policy goal is to return the American economy to external balance, given the dollar’s overvaluation and persistent US deficit spending. Tune in to this podcast as Senior Research Fellow Stewart Paterson joins the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA to break down the driving factors behind the dollar’s global dominance, which follows up on Paterson’s research paper for the Hinrich Foundation, “Trump, the US dollar, and American trade policy.” Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents sits down with Craig Allen, former President of the US-China Business Council, to assess how China is redefining innovation, what the US gets wrong about it, and why this global race is more complex and consequential than ever.Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents sits down with Senior Research Fellow Stewart Paterson to unpack why China has struggled to rebalance its economy toward the consumption-led growth it desperately needs.  China’s economic slowdown is sending shockwaves across global markets, raising concerns about the future of the world’s second-largest economy. Once a key driver of global growth, the country now faces a range of challenges, from a sluggish property sector and mounting local government debt to declining foreign investment and weakened consumer demand. These issues, coupled with the government’s cautious approach to stimulus and ongoing geopolitical tensions, has sparked debate about whether China can regain its economic momentum. As businesses and investors worldwide watch closely, the question remains: why it is almost impossible to re-engineer China’s political economy? Central to the issue is China’s investment-led growth model, which has driven massive infrastructure development, but it has also led to diminishing returns. The state-controlled, bank-dominated financial system has resulted in a surge of non-performing loans, highlighting inefficiencies in the country’s investment strategy. With capital accumulation now outpacing returns, China faces escalating financial risks, including the potential for a major crisis. Furthermore, despite years of effort, China has struggled to shift toward a consumption-driven economy, where domestic demand could play a more significant role in growth. Structural barriers such as income inequality, high savings rates, and an undervalued currency make this transition difficult. The government’s reluctance to relinquish control over the economy, prioritizing trade surpluses and state-directed investments, further complicates the shift. To pivot towards a consumption-based model, China would need to implement sweeping reforms, including a more progressive tax system, improved social security, and higher wages. Without these changes, China risks prolonged stagnation and financial crises that could derail its long-term growth and geopolitical aspirations.  Tune into this podcast as Senior Research Fellow Stewart Paterson joins the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA to break down the key factors behind China’s sluggish growth and what it means for global markets.  Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents sits down with Senior Research Fellow Keith Rockwell to discuss how Europe plans to deal with Trump and the impact on the world’s most important alliance.  On 10 February, Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on aluminum and steel imports, followed days later by a plan for "reciprocal tariffs." As promised during his campaign, he plans to expand his tariff blanket further. Europe's longstanding alliance with the US is in crisis. While European leaders claim they are better prepared for Trump’s second term, the reality is they are in a far weaker position than in his first.With a major war on its eastern border, crushing energy costs, and political turmoil roiling the union’s anchor members Germany and France, stability across the continent is at risk as Trump forges ahead without the EU to cut a deal with Russia President Vladimir Putin.  Tune into this special podcast as Senior Research Fellow Keith Rockwell sits down the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA to probe Europe’s strategy and the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs on the most important alliance in the world. Rockwell’s recent research for the Hinrich Foundation explores Europe’s two-pronged approach to deal with Trump and his tariffs. The European Commission is preparing both carrots and sticks, seeking to strike trade deals or retaliate forcefully if necessary. Even as European leaders weigh retaliation against the US on LNG imports, investment in US manufacturing, and military purchases, many in Europe believe negotiation is the best path forward, aiming to avoid a tit-for-tat trade war by increasing imports from the US rather than facing broad restrictions on EU exports. There is a lot to lose on both sides of the Atlantic. Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA sits down with Jia Hui Tee, Senior Trade Policy Analyst at the Hinrich Foundation, to discuss the rise of industrial policies and potential implications to trade and sustainability. In recent years, industrial policies have become a primary focus for governments worldwide. These policies, aimed at strengthening domestic industries, have significant implications for global trade and sustainability. As identified in the Hinrich-IMD Sustainable Trade Index 2024, global trade is experiencing a protectionist shift, with nations implementing measures to fortify their domestic sectors and secure supply chains for strategic goods. This year's STI indicates a notable increase in both tariff and non-tariff barriers, particularly by economies such as the United States, India, and China. With the heightened emphasis on supply chain resilience and national security, countries are increasingly focused on ensuring the production of strategic goods and technologies to maintain their competitive advantage. Such actions may have profound effects on trade outcomes, as highly protectionist policies could potentially strain international trade relations. It is, therefore, crucial to strike a balance in the application of industrial policies to prevent adverse consequences such as resource misallocation, trade fragmentation, and environmental harm. Tune into this special episode as Jia Hui Tee, Senior Trade Policy Analyst at the Hinrich Foundation, delves into the rise of industrial policies, how they impact trade and sustainability, and what governments can do to minimize their negative impacts on their trading partners.  Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

After a long dormant period, industrial policy is back and dramatically reshaping global manufacturing. As large-scale subsidies proliferate, countries that used to take a laissez-faire approach to market governance have entered a race to subsidize strategic sectors. Companies are responding. Tune in here for an experimental 'podcast' on Kieran Thompson's 'Fighting subsidies with subsidies' article, created with Google's AI research assistant NotebookLM. Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents sits down with Keith Rockwell, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, to discuss the future of Europe’s trade dynamics in light of its shifting political landscape.While the recent elections in Europe have not yet led to significant shifts in its trade and business landscape, the steady rise of far-right parties is setting the stage for future upheavals. These political movements challenge the very foundation of the European Union’s (EU) single market, which is built on free movement and multilateral cooperation. The Hinrich Foundation’s recent research examines how the surge in nationalism is driving new divisions within Europe, potentially undermining the region’s commitment to open borders and international trade. As these parties strengthen their foothold, their push for protectionist policies could reshape the flow of talent and capital, affecting not just trade but also the broader integration of European economies. Some right-wing factions, especially in countries like France and Germany, are adopting pro-business approaches, tempering their traditionally anti-trade rhetoric to appeal to a broader electorate. However, this shift may be more tactical than permanent, as the underlying nationalist and protectionist ideals remain deeply embedded in these movements. The growing influence of such ideologies across Europe raises questions about the long-term stability of trade and economic policies within the EU. Tune into this special episode as Keith Rockwell, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, discusses the rising influence of far-right parties across Europe and its potential impact on the region’s trade policies, immigration, and the core principles of the EU. Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents interviews Deborah Elms on the WTO’s landmark e-commerce agreement.In July, The Joint Statement Initiative (JSI) on Electronic Commerce achieved a historic milestone in global trade, as 82 World Trade Organization (WTO) members released a “stabilized text”, potentially setting the first digital trade rules. This is a significant development, addressing the WTO's previous lack of a digital trade framework and aiming to create unified, consistent regulations for e-commerce. This agreement, remarkably, was reached without the participation of United State, with major players like China and the European Union joining forces with smaller nations such as Benin and Laos. The JSI's impact is particularly significant for developing countries, which face significant challenges due to regulatory fragmentation. By addressing these challenges, the JSI aims to foster a more equitable digital trade landscape worldwide. The initiative’s inclusive approach includes commitments for cooperation and development, helping them integrate into the global digital economy. The agreement also aims to facilitate trade for smaller firms by allowing electronic paperwork and signatures, simplifying cross-border transactions. Despite the progress, achieving consensus at the WTO remains a challenge. Although 82 WTO members have endorsed the JSI’s text, some remain dissatisfied, complicating the integration of these rules into the broader WTO framework. Any dissenting member, including the US, can block progress, leaving the signatories to navigate these disagreements and determine the path forward. Tune in to this special episode as Deborah Elms, Head of Trade Policy at the Hinrich Foundation, dissects the WTO's historic e-commerce agreement and its potential impact on the future of digital trade.    Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, Patrícia Vasconcellos from the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents and Robert York, Director of Regional Affairs at the think tank Pacific Forum, delve into how shifting oil trade dynamics are fueling global fragmentation.Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the West imposed stringent sanctions on Russia to cripple its oil exports and economy. Despite these efforts, Russian oil shipments have remained resilient, mainly due to new buyers entering the market.Russia has surpassed Saudi Arabia as the primary oil supplier to China. This shift in the global oil markets, driven by falling oil prices and Western sanctions, has significantly influenced global trade dynamics. While the European Union’s reduced dependence on Russian oil is seen as a positive outcome, the increase in oil imports by India pose a challenge, as the US is concerned about strengthening trade ties between India and Russia.In response to Western economic pressures, Russia has strategically increased its oil exports to Africa and Asia. This move highlights the need for the US to bolster its diplomatic efforts in the Global South to counterbalance the influence of Russia and China. Furthermore, the environmental risks associated with oil transportation, particularly through poorly maintained "shadow tankers," pose substantial threats of oil spills and ecological damage.These insights were highlighted in the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents’ interview with Robert York, Director of Regional Affairs at Hawaii-based think tank Pacific Forum.Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, Patrícia Vasconcellos from the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents interviews Hinrich Foundation Research Grant recipient Rodrigo Fagundes Cezar about the impact of unilateral green rules and voluntary standards on Brazil’s green transition.Amid efforts to promote sustainability through trade, import policies have taken centerstage. The European Union (EU), for example, has unilaterally launched the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) to help the single market achieve its ambitious climate goals by 2030. As a result, several countries have established or plan to adopt private standards and certifications, such as Brazil's sugar agency Bonsucro, to ensure compliance with these new regulations.In Brazil, however, the results of adopting these voluntary standards have been mixed. While the country’s exports of sugar and ethanol to Europe have generally increased, these gains are often limited to municipalities with established trade ties with the EU. On the other hand, areas with fewer prior trade ties have seen declining exports. Furthermore, compliance with these standards may inadvertently lead to land concentration, favoring larger agricultural units and potentially exacerbating land inequality within Brazil.This special episode delves into the findings of a report titled ‘Unilateral green rules and voluntary standards: A balancing act for Brazil’, commissioned under the Hinrich Foundation Research Grant, which supports up-and-coming academics. Rodrigo Cezar and his team analyze the impact of these voluntary standards on Brazil’s sugar and ethanol exports and land concentration. They also discuss the heterogeneous effect and history of trade across Brazilian municipalities. The research highlights the role of policymakers in developed nations can mitigate adverse spillover effects to achieve their sustainability goals.Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, Patrícia Vasconcellos from the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents talks to Inu Manak, fellow for Trade Policy at the Council for Foreign Relations, discussing the role of US trade policy in current presidential election year.Trade exerts a profound impact on our daily lives as it plays a pivotal role in shaping consumer choices, production processes, and overall economic resilience. The historical trajectory of US trade policy reveals a gradual shift towards protectionism, driven by factors such as the economic disruptions and the lack of effective worker adjustment programs. While the move towards protectionism predates the Trump administration, it is important to note that Trump’s intensification of protectionist sentiment is viewed more as a symptom than the cause.Looking ahead to future trends, the anticipation looms over the continuation of the trade restrictions in US trade policy, regardless of the election outcome. The dynamic interplay between security concerns and trade decisions highlights the need for a balanced approach.Moreover, a discernible gap exists between public perceptions, which generally acknowledges the positive aspects of trade, and political narratives that often carry a negative connotation. Bridging this gap necessitates engagement with everyday Americans to capture their perspectives on the global economy.This episode dissects the evolving landscape of US trade policy during the ongoing presidential election year with guest Inu Manak, PhD in government and an expert in international political economy. Manak's insights offer a nuanced understanding of the intricacies shaping US trade policy, shedding light on the challenges and potential future trends.Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, Patrícia Vasconcellos from the US Association of Foreign Press Correspondents and Keith Rockwell, former WTO director and senior research fellow at the Hinrich Foundation delve into the evolving global trade patterns.  There is a notable shift in global trade patterns, particularly in case of the US. This is a result of deliberate decoupling initiatives spanning two successive US administrations, marked by tariffs on Chinese imports. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, sometimes characterized as NAFTA 2.0, emerges as a pivotal factor, fostering enhanced trade relations among the US, Mexico, and Canada. Proximity and integrated economies, as well as the challenges in global shipping routes, contribute to Mexico's increasing competitiveness in supply chains, especially in areas like electric vehicle (EV) production. The Biden administration's trade policy alignment with its predecessor reflects a prevailing skeptisim towards trade. Prioritizing industrial and environmental policies, the administration has achieved significant legislative milestones, including the infrastructure bill, semiconductor bill, and the Inflation Reduction Act. That said, the convergence of trade and environmental policies, particularly in the context of EV production and domestic manufacturing requirements, poses a challenge in realizing the government's multifaceted policy objectives. Moreover, the ongoing conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and the Middle East, continue to have physical and economic repercussions to global trade. The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming WTO ministerial meeting's ability to forge comprehensive agreements is heightened by challenges ranging from agricultural disputes to disagreements on e-commerce and tariff issues.  Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, Alan Herrera of the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents in the United States (AFPC-USA) and Hinrich Foundation Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms explore the complexities of decision-making within the World Trade Organization (WTO) as the 13th Ministerial Conference looms.---Getting 166 diverse staff to agree on a single lunch order without a boss is a difficult exercise. This is, roughly, an analogy to the situation facing the WTO. Consensus-based decision making has become increasingly strenuous as membership grows and the agenda for managing global trade expands. Over the years, the WTO and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade have tried to provide alternative pathways to getting to yes. Key among these are agreements between smaller subsets of members before they are offered organization wide. While recent experiences with the Joint Statement Initiatives puts forward some reason for optimism, the broadening scope of challenges facing the trade policy landscape is poised to underscore more questions than answers for the future of the multilateral trading system.Tune in to this special episode of Current Accounts, based on our policy brief titled “The challenge of getting to yes at the WTO” authored by Hinrich Foundation Head of Trade policy Deborah Elms. Download Full Transcript  Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

The semiconductor is at the forefront of the convergence of global trade and geopolitics.McKinsey projects the industry will reach a trillion dollars by 2030, up from US$574 billion last year according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. The industry, however, is increasingly at the mercy of the most intense geopolitical contest in the world today. Makers of the world’s most advanced chips are based in a handful of countries, though they depend on tens of thousands of components and hundreds of suppliers across the planet. Much of the brain trust for the tech design of advanced chips is American while much of the market demand for chips as components to assemble final products lies in China. The two superpowers are locked in a battle for global domination on nearly every level, including in the semiconductor space. Can US allies in the handful of key chokepoints in the chip supply chain, including Taiwan and the Netherlands, be counted on to keep foregoing trade with China in service of US objectives? And is the industry built for the kind of self-sufficiency that both the US and China appear to want for themselves?   US chip giant Intel Corp.’s Senior Policy Director and Managing Legal Counsel Robb Gordon joins us for a podcast with our partners at the think tank Pacific Forum, moderated by the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents-USA. Pacific Forum authored a series of papers for the Hinrich Foundation on the American friend-shoring policy, including a paper on de-risking semiconductor supply chains.Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, guest host Nii Akrofi Smart-Abbey from the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents in the United States (AFPC-USA) and Executive Director of Asia Trade Center Deborah Elms, discuss how lack of standardization is proving to be a challenge in decarbonizing the steel industry.  Iron and steel production accounts for 8% of annual carbon emissions, according to a WTO climate change brief on decarbonizing the steel industry, and global steel production has tripled in the past 50 years with 1.8 billion tons produced in 2020. This is mainly due to the methods used to produce steel which includes combining iron with carbon, recycled steel, and other elements. But that is not all. Decarbonization standards in the iron and steel industries are proliferating. Navigating different standards can create costs and inefficiencies at a time when efforts must strive to be as effective and affordable as possible. The industry is committed to going green but with the lack of standardization, will it be possible for the industry to agree on a single blueprint for reducing carbon emissions? Dr. Deborah Elms of the Asian Trade Center and Nii Akrofi Smart-Abbey from the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents in the United States (AFPC- USA) discuss the challenges of the steel industry and how feasible its goal of producing low-carbon steel is. Download Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast on global trade, guest host Nii Akrofi Smart-Abbey from the Association of Foreign Press Correspondents in the United States (AFPC-USA) talks to Hinrich Foundation Research Fellow Stewart Paterson, delving into a discussion centered around the question of whether globalization is under threat. This episode was first featured in the AFPC podcast series. Globalization is often associated with the notion of technology, making the world a global village after the advent of computers. In fact, it is a complex phenomenon showcasing how trade and technology have made our world a more connected and interdependent place while resulting in economic and social transformations. As globalization has become less appealing due to the stagnant trade intensity and declining foreign trade investment flows, it is imperative to pay attention to the current state of globalization and the evolving dynamics of nation-states within this sphere. Globalization is increasingly under threat as it lacks support from a large part of the world where the authoritarian tendency threatening international trade is on the rise.  This special episode of Current Accounts highlights the thought-provoking findings of a report titled ‘What went wrong with globalization’, authored by Hinrich Foundation Research Fellow Stewart Paterson. The report examines contemporary globalization, shedding light on the four factors that have hindered its progress. Additionally, he discusses the diminishing authority of the WTO and proposes remedies. Tune into this episode to uncover valuable insights into the future of global integration. Download Full Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this fifth edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation's podcast on global trade, Hinrich Foundation Research Fellow Stewart Paterson speaks with former New Zealand trade negotiator Stephanie Honey on the seeming ubiquity of trade digitization and the resistance in parts of the global trade supply chain to digital facilitation.  In the last few decades, the internet enabled a new trade ecosystem in which digital technologies forged new ways to trade and created new products and services. While digital technologies now seem ubiquitous, the rules applied to the digital economy remain disjointed and major parts of the supply chain remain resistant to digitization.This episode of Current Accounts turns its attention to this much talked-about but seldom understood area of trade digitization with guest Stephanie Honey, director of Honey Consulting and a former trade negotiator. The episode discusses the definition and prevalence of digital trade, the difference between digitized and digitalized trade processes, and how to address the lack of regulatory guardrails for newer kinds of digital tools that can be used in trade.  Download Full Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this special edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation’s global trade podcast, guest host former US Representative Charles Boustany leads a discussion on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum 2023 with former US Deputy Trade Representative Robert Holleyman and Shihoko Goto of the Wilson Center. The episode was first featured in Asia Insight, the podcast of the National Bureau of Asian Research.  The United States will host the APEC forum in 2023. Under APEC’s 2023 theme, “Creating a Resilient and Sustainable Future for All”, the United States is set to spearhead efforts on key issues such as supply chain resilience, digital trade, connectivity, opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises, climate change, and environmental instability.  Things have changed rapidly since the last time the US hosted such a forum in 2011. This year, the US has chosen to cast a wide net in setting priorities and faces the challenge of bringing a disparate group of countries together on key issues.  While there are a lot of expectations of US leadership, skepticism abounds in equal measure. Another US-led regional initiative, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity, has received a lukewarm response from many in the business and policy communities. APEC provides an opportunity for the US to prove its global economic leadership capabilities.  What are the opportunities for the US to make tangible progress in its host year? What are the challenges it faces? As APEC members prepare for the November summit, this podcast unpacks the economic and geopolitical factors that may impact its agenda. Download Full Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this fourth edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation's podcast on global trade, Research Fellow Stewart Paterson speaks with Naoise McDonagh, Senior Lecturer in the School of Business and Law at Australia’s Edith Cowan University, on the national security calculus driving decoupling and the crucial role of legal contestability of such measures undertaken by the US and China against each other. China’s heft in the global trading system fueled its rise to a stature that is challenging US hegemony throughout the world. The rivalry now has become enmeshed in national security interests and its impact is shaking the multilateral trading system. In many ways, the tensions resemble those of the Cold War between the US and Soviet Russia – but for one key difference, says McDonagh.  During the Cold War, there was almost complete separation between the rival giants. But since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the contesting superpowers are among the most closely integrated economies in history.Geopolitical confrontation and economic disentanglement between Beijing and Washington have been far more consequential in a painful, near-anarchic reshaping of global networks. The drastic change in relative power between superpowers led to sharply spiraling risks. And there’s no global policeman any longer, McDonagh says, as the US turns against the multilateral governance frameworks it created.  As both economies invoke national interests, the legal interpretation of the term in the world’s rules-based organizations has become a key measure of its ability to come to terms with the geopolitical changes – not least at the WTO.  States “are not going to allow an impingement of their national security, and so it is just not going to work for them to bow down to a legal interpretation, because national security issues are too important,” McDonagh says. “So that is why the WTO did not want to rule on this. People will not adhere to it, and that undermines the credibility of the system.” As nations struggle to figure out the new fissures created by decoupling, Paterson and McDonagh contemplate the abyss in this Current Accounts podcast. Download Full Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this third edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation's podcast on global trade, our Research Fellow Stewart Paterson speaks with Emily de la Bruyère, co-founder of Horizon Advisory and a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defence of Democracy, on China’s growing global export prowess, its leverage on world markets, and trade dependency in the technology sector. When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, it accounted for about 4% of global exports. That figure had risen to 15% in 2022. China’s growing export prowess reflects its dominance in global markets. Today, China maintains oligopolistic power in technology-oriented sectors and manufacturing exports, de la Bruyère said.  The view that China remains the factory of the world for low-end consumer products is outdated. The nation has moved up from the lower rungs of critical value chains, and now enjoys comparative advantages in the higher value-added end of the chain. However, rather than being a market-driven outcome, this dominance, especially in technology, derives from a larger state-driven strategy for China to gain leverage and project its power internationally, she said. Scale matters. China’s success is in large part due to its huge and centralized state system. Its ability to decide which sector to prioritize, identify champions within those sectors, provide generous capital and funding, and leverage on strong network effects to scale cannot be overstated. In Bruyére’s view, the role of the Chinese government in amplifying market advantages through subsidies and lower regulatory standards to encourage vertical and horizontal integration is critical for Chinese companies to build as much scale as possible.  While China expands its reach across global markets, regulatory bodies such as the WTO is key to ensuring fair play amid increasing competition and trade tensions. However, the effectiveness of such international institutions has deteriorated in recent years amid rising global geopolitical tension. Trade policies have become so intertwined with national security that geopolitics now often dictates or muddles trade relations. Paterson and de la Bruyère discuss these complexities in this Current Accounts podcast. Download Full Transcript Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this second edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation's podcast on global trade, our Research Fellow Stewart Paterson speaks with Jeff Ferry, chief economist at the Coalition for a Prosperous America, on how globalization has evolved from a worldwide success for multinational corporations to a dilemma for the American economy, blamed for job losses, low wages, and slow growth. In key parts of the world, and not least in the planet’s largest economy, trade has become something of a dirty word. In democracies, politicians that advocate for greater levels of global trade are finding themselves ever more unelectable.Many voters in the US, in particular, have in large swaths turned against the idea that trade is a boon for economic growth. In Washington, leaders and lobbyists no longer dare speak in favor of free trade agreements or offering market access to foreign economies for fear of getting run out of office.In large part, the belief is that trade – and its byproduct, globalization – has benefited a select slate of large corporations and elites, but left many industrial belts jobless and stagnating. Meantime, China and other Asian economies that bid to manufacture the products that the US chose to offshore have sustained stratospheric growth rates and persistent current account surpluses against the US that has aggravated, in Ferry’s view, de-industrialization, social inequalities, and, increasingly, national security threats.In trade policy circles, such views are by no means theocracy. Many believe that globalization remains inevitable, though its restructuring – or a “reglobalization” led by geopolitics – is equally inescapable in the rising Great Power rivalry between the United States and China. Supply chains have grown so complex that attempting to reshore all of them is a fool’s errand, some argue. These arguments too will be showcased as the Current Accounts series progresses.---Here’s an excerpt of Ferry’s conversation with Current Accounts: Stewart Paterson: The clear barrier seems to have been over the last 20 years, or much of the last 20 years, a reluctance on China's part or the current account surplus countries generally, to stimulate domestic demand to a level that brings their current account back to balance. And therefore, a disproportionate amount of the responsibility for ensuring there is sufficient demand in the world has fallen upon the United States, it has become this kind of consumer of last resort. But implementing a more balanced global economy or encouraging a more balanced global economy is going to require a lot of cooperation, isn't it? And the level of cooperation that existed in the World Trade Organization in the early part of this century seems to have been sort of inadequate for the job at hand. And that was before the organization and the multilateral trading system generally started to fray at the edges. So, do we not enter into a period here of sort of trade anarchy? Jeff Ferry: Yes, you could call it trade anarchy, or you could call it, the revolt of the 'dumping-ground countries'. As you say, the United States has been the dumping ground for dozens of countries, really, that want to expand production.  Download Full Transcript  Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.   

In this first edition of Current Accounts, the Hinrich Foundation's newly launched trade podcast, our Research Fellow Stewart Paterson speaks with Jan David Bakker, of Bocconi University, on the rise of non-tariff barriers to trade, their impact on economic welfare, and the nature of data analysis on traded goods from horses to salt.As the United Kingdom takes the first tentative steps into Brexit, after voting to leave the European Union in mid-2016, it triggered a prolonged negotiation between the two parties that led eventually to the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) between the two sides coming into effect in January 2021. TCA allows tariff-free and quota-free trade between the two parties, however, since the UK is no longer in the European single market, and no longer in the Customs Union, some previously non-existent non-tariff barriers to trade have come into operation. This has given rise to an opportunity for trade economists to examine the impact of trade legislation and particularly non-tariff barriers on economic welfare.The recently published paper by the Centre for Economic Performance titled- "Non-tariff barriers, and consumer prices: the evidence from Brexit" co-authored by Nikhil Datta, Richard Davies, Josh De Lyon, and Jan David Bakker, takes a data-driven approach to unpacking the impact of non-tariff barriers on consumer prices. Jan David Bakker, co-author of the paper and Assistant Professor of Economics at Bocconi University in Milan talks to Stewart Paterson, Senior Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation about the findings of the paper and the impact of Brexit on British consumers.Among other issues including how geopolitics and globalization have driven food prices, and how specific classes of products drive non-tariff barriers, the discussion also focuses on the nature of trade data analysis.In the discussion, Bakker and Paterson talk about the granularity of UK data versus the readily available international trade data provided by the United Nations Comtrade system, commonly used by economists. The challenge in aligning the datasets drill down to singling out commodities from salt to domesticated horses, and how that has a bearing on economic observations.Download Full Transcript  Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.