The Julia La Roche Show

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down why the stablecoin boom may be running out of road — giving the Clarity Act less than 50/50 odds and arguing it could strip the yield out of coins, force issuers offshore, and turn the survivors into banks. He makes the case that stablecoins are little more than "prepaid gift cards," lays out why he's bullish on gold and silver as central banks and China chase physical metal, and warns that real inflation — measured by commodity inputs like energy and sulfur (up 150% since the Iran war), not the CPI — is closing in on double digits. Whalen also sees the 10-year Treasury pushing past 5% and mortgages settling into a "higher for longer" 6.5–7%, flags the mortgage sector as the earnings story to watch, takes aim at Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy, points to safer places to find yield, and keeps circling back to one unsettling parallel: today looks a lot like the 1920s, right before the party ended.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 – Intro 0:45 – The Clarity Act: will it kill stablecoins? 3:34 – Do stablecoins have any real use case? 5:17 – Why we may need fewer banks — and more insurers 8:22 – Do stablecoins actually create Treasury demand? 10:16 – Chris's next book: gold 12:20 – Gold's pullback and the bull case for silver 16:37 – Goldman's $4,900 target & John Paulson on gold 17:53 – The BLS quietly redefines inflation 19:40 – A 2% target, a 6% deficit, and 5% yields 22:07 – Why mortgage earnings are the story to watch 24:29 – Affordability, home prices & the blue-state squeeze 26:42 – Why it all rhymes with the 1920s 28:44 – Viewer Q&A: the real double-digit inflation 32:12 – MSTR yields, Saylor & where to find safe income 36:28 – Closing thoughts: the mortgage shakeout ahead

Financial commentator Chris Irons, also known as Quoth the Raven on X and author of the popular QTR Fringe Finance substack, returns to the show with a sobering assessment of markets he says are at or above the highest valuations in history — propped up by a passive bid, options-driven flows, and ten mega-cap names carrying everyone's retirement. Irons explains why he's stepped back from active trading permanently, why he believes the SpaceX IPO's $2 trillion ask may have marked a top in AI euphoria, and why Kevin Warsh's inflation-fighting promises will crumble the moment equities fall 10-20%. He shares where he's finding opportunity — including his early psychedelics call that's crushed the market this year, emerging markets, and beaten-down gold miners — and warns that the most underappreciated risks lie in stablecoins, crypto leverage, private credit, and regional banks. His bottom line: a sharp deleveraging is coming, the Fed will fold at the first sign of discomfort, and gold could hit $7,500 or higher after the next round of money printing.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: X: https://x.com/QTRResearchSubstack: Viewers/listeners of The Julia La Roche Show get 80% off an annual subscription of QTR's Fringe Finance https://quoththeraven.substack.com/subscribe?coupon=7c8478df&utm_content=207295644Timestamps:00:00 Introduction and welcome back 00:57 Big picture: Fed stuck between a rock and a hard place 03:18 Out-of-control fiscal policy and the "sovereign Ponzi scheme" 05:41 Private equity repackaged in insurance wrappers (2008 echoes) 06:30 SpaceX IPO as a possible top signal for the AI bubble 07:38 Why Chris stepped back from active trading permanently 12:01 "Being right vs. making money" 13:15 Life after trading: clarity, priorities, and more content 14:45 Diagnosing the market: passive bid, gamma squeezes, and index distortion 16:35 The case for equal-weight (RSP) over cap-weighted S&P 18:30 Michael Burry's AI build-out vs. dot-com comparison 21:10 Opportunities: the psychedelics thesis and how it played out 27:00 Gold and miners: buying the pullback, $7,500 gold scenario 30:45 What to expect from a Kevin Warsh-led Fed 34:36 Should inflation even be the Fed's mandate? 36:04 Arbitrary prices and permanently distorted markets 37:45 The vocal track analogy: too many plugins on the economy 40:10 Why active trading is impossible in a headline-driven market 41:27 Most underappreciated risks: stablecoins, Tether, and crypto contagion 43:30 Corporate fraud, private credit, regional banks, and subprime auto46:01 Closing thoughts and subscriber discount

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors and former Fidelity fund manager under Peter Lynch, returns with a stark warning: the global liquidity cycle has turned. Citing "liquidity king" Michael Howell, Noble argues that surging deficits, sticky inflation, and a worldwide capex boom have stripped away the policy safety net markets have relied on since 2009 — setting up a potential "Wile E. Coyote moment" where stocks take a dirt nap and the Fed can't respond. He says the Fed isn't in control, Mr. Market is, and bond yields at 4.5% are "much too low" — fair value may be closer to 5.5-6%. Noble calls the AI trade "far worse than dot-com," with malinvestment 17 times larger, hyperscalers destroying free cash flow, and semis a "huge short." His playbook: ditch the 60/40 portfolio, own the reflation trade — gold, silver, energy, copper, uranium — and he names specific stocks including SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, and CRGY. Plus: why the yen carry trade could break, the TLT-in-Turkish-lira lesson on real money, and his most emphatic call of all — "run, don't walk" from SpaceX before the float unlock. And details on his Best Stock Ideas Summit, July 22nd.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: George Noble's Best Stock Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/X: https://x.com/gnoble79Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenobleTimestamps: 0:00 — Intro; George's Best Stock Ideas Summit July 22nd1:10 — The global liquidity cycle has turned: Michael Howell's warning4:31 — "Risk assets are extremely challenged" — rotation and dispersion is the real story5:30 — Energy vs. Mag 7: free cash flow tells the story7:03 — Tech is really 50% of the market — why the indices will struggle8:20 — "Warsh is not in control, Mr. Market is"10:04 — Why Warsh will blink: the market will force the Fed's hand10:28 — America's Liz Truss moment? Lending to "the Bank of Julia" at 4.5%13:34 — Policy options are gone: why this time the Fed can't rescue markets14:55 — The "Wile E. Coyote moment" ahead for markets16:17 — Japan: 30-year high JGB yields, the yen, and the carry trade risk19:01 — Path vs. prediction: why bond yields are "much too low" — 5.5-6% fair value23:27 — Why the economy shrugs off higher rates (and why that's bearish)25:17 — All fiat is devaluing against real assets: the dollar fell 60% against gold27:17 — Buying the gold correction; why miners could double or triple28:05 — The TLT in Turkish lira: a lesson in your unit of account30:10 — Why 60/40 is the worst allocation right now — "certificates of confiscation"34:07 — "Far worse than dot-com": the margin bubble and 17x the malinvestment36:29 — The internet grew 25 million percent — and the stocks still crashed 90%39:21 — George names names: SSRM, Coeur, Valaris, CRGY, uranium, junior copper40:42 — Parting thoughts: the golden age of stock picking41:45 — SpaceX: "run, don't walk" — why the float unlock means a crash is coming43:00 — The Best Stock Ideas Summit: 15 investors, one pick each, July 22nd

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down a blockbuster week of bank earnings — and why the record numbers mask a growing problem. Wall Street trading and investment banking revenues are exploding, but banks aren't making money on money, as asset yields fall for a sixth straight quarter and private credit giants like Apollo poach deals. Whalen flags roughly $4 trillion in bank exposure to non-depository financial institutions, warns "there are no regulators in Washington" watching the risks, and says the housing market's business-purpose loan boom "feels like 2005." He sticks with his double-digit inflation call, arguing diesel — not oil — is the real story, and predicts fuel shortages, maybe even rationing, before the midterm elections. Plus: Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed debut, gold's selloff as a buying opportunity, viewer questions on Annaly, and a World Cup prediction.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira869Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 — Intro and welcome 00:55 Bank earnings and oil prices soar as Middle East war reignites2:36 — Bank earnings disconnect: Wall Street booms, lending shrinks3:55 — Why big deals keep going to private credit (Apollo, Blackstone)5:59 — The hidden risk: banks lending directly to private credit funds9:06 — The $4 trillion exposure — "no regulators watching the hen house"10:07 — The "Everything Bubble": rising rates, falling yields, record home prices12:06 — Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed: "inflation is a choice"14:40 — Rate hike odds cool — will the Fed wait until after midterms?15:42 — Energy shortages building: why the Trump administration stays quiet16:45 — Double-digit inflation call stands; possible rationing by Election Day17:53 — Iran destroyed Gulf refining capacity — years to rebuild21:52 — Housing: sales fall 2.4%, median price hits record high23:14 — "It feels like 2005" — DSCR and non-QM loans flash warning signs27:19 — Gold selloff: why Chris is buying more (especially silver)29:37 — Viewer Q: How rates affect Annaly (NLY) — it's all about the spread31:03 — Viewer Q: Warsh's 2% target vs. $80 oil — a double whammy?32:27 — Chris's World Cup prediction: Argentina

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss his latest letter, "Stick to Your Principles," and why he believes today's market is anything but normal. He warns that 10-12 companies now make up half the S&P 500, speculation via leveraged ETFs is in the billions, and stocks are roughly three standard deviations above the norm — a setup he says could eventually correct 40% or more in a generational bear market. Oakley explains why investor complacency is the biggest mistake he sees, with three-quarters of all financial assets in stocks and Americans over 70 owning a third of the market. He shares where he's finding value now — energy names like Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, and Antero, plus beaten-down gold miners like Agnico Eagle — and recounts the hard lesson he learned chasing hot oil stocks in the late 1970s. His biggest worry: unsustainable government debt. His surprising source of optimism: a severe downturn, which he views as the buying opportunity of a generation.Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 – Introduction: Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors returns0:53 – Semiconductors dominating the market; 10-12 companies are half the S&P2:10 – "The Gambler": leveraged ETFs and speculation in the billions3:16 – How leveraged ETFs amplify volatility4:25 – A market high that "sticks for a while" coming in the next 6-12 months5:41 – Risk/reward has flipped: 6-8% upside vs. 25% downside6:38 – A generational bear market could mean a 40-45% correction8:04 – Investor complacency: 75% of financial assets in stocks, an all-time high9:26 – Oxbow's positioning: ~60/40 stocks and short-term treasuries11:04 – The bond market: a possible trade in long-dated treasuries, but not worth the risk12:19 – Cooler CPI and why inflation could fall further on oil prices13:36 – What oil industry insiders are saying about drilling and cash flows14:54 – Everyone's bearish on oil — Ted sees $100+ within 18 months16:26 – What Ted's buying: Northern Oil & Gas, Kimbell Royalty, Antero, NESR19:22 – Gold miners cheap after 35-40% correction; Agnico Eagle is Oxbow's top holding21:09 – Momentum players washing out of gold sets up the next move22:45 – "Stick to Your Principles": valuation discipline and why pros abandon it24:16 – Ted's own lesson: getting burned in the late-'70s oil boom26:00 – The Intel example: sold in '99, took 26 years to hit a new high27:50 – Why hot IPOs disappoint (SpaceX down 30% from IPO)29:27 – The boomer risk: over-70s own a third of all stocks32:04 – Biggest risk: unsustainable government debt and interest costs33:33 – Why Ted is optimistic about a downturn: liquidity to buy the sale

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to lay out why he believes markets are entering a major regime shift. He points to a historic rotation out of mega-cap tech — roughly $2 trillion has already exited the "Mag 7" since October — as sophisticated institutional investors grow wary of unsustainable AI/data-center capital expenditures and the off-balance-sheet financing propping them up. McDonald warns of a coming credit crisis driven by private credit weakness and commercial real estate stress, while arguing that Washington's stablecoin push and "financial repression" tactics are being used to force more Treasury buying and inflate away the $39 trillion national debt. With sticky inflation, midterm election risk, and a volatile August-September seasonal pattern ahead, he's positioning in hard assets — gold (targeting $6,500), silver, natural gas, and select energy names — as the trade of the next several years, while sounding the alarm on an S&P 500 he calls dangerously concentrated in tech.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMKTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/00:00 – Intro & welcome back01:11 – Big picture macro setup: bullish-to-bearish rotation among top institutional investors02:19 – "Under the seat cushions" — what's really going on beneath bank earnings04:55 – The AI/data center malinvestment cycle & Mag 7 outflows05:57 – Economic outlook, Druckenmiller's rule, Trump/Middle East risk08:10 – Recession odds & consumer divergence (Home Depot, Pepsi, Costco)10:34 – Why the midterms matter for investors12:53 – Passive investing, S&P concentration, fiduciary "reconstruction"15:07 – Energy sector picks (Occidental, Schlumberger, XLE)16:23 – Treasury market "control" — stablecoins, Clarity Act19:00 – "Bessent's bag of tricks" & debt dynamics20:33 – Fiscal dominance explained (Lehman vs. post-2020 response)23:02 – 3% inflation target implications, growth-to-value rotation25:08 – Hard asset thesis: Bitcoin, natural gas, precious metals29:21 – Gold outlook & the "hot money flush"33:14 – Gold price target: $6,50033:46 – Biggest risks: data center debt, private credit, commercial real estate37:28 – Kevin Warsh's Fed approach & yield curve control prediction40:30 – What to watch in H2: seasonality, volatility, August/September risk42:52 – Closing

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris expects the Federal Reserve will deliver one rate hike before Labor Day despite Warsh's preference to delay—the White House has greenlit it to maintain Warsh's credibility as chairman, and this one hike will likely lead to more because incremental Fed policy changes don't stop at one when fighting inflation. The Iran ceasefire has shattered and won't be fixed: Iran has zero incentive to reach peace with the U.S., wants to tax Strait of Hormuz traffic, and will force Gulf states to build pipelines and avoid the strait entirely—oil refineries won't be rebuilt while shooting continues, causing permanent structural supply damage. U.S. oil stocks are at their lowest level in 20 years, diesel is up 30% this year and ripples through every part of the economy, and California is facing potential rationing after it runs down reserves and stops getting refined products from Asia. Whalen stands firm on his double-digit inflation call despite prediction markets showing lower odds, arguing the real economy—not market probabilities—determines consumer and producer behavior, and rising consumer inflation expectations (3.7% one-year) are changing psychology and forcing real estate hedging. Bank earnings next week will reveal whether credit costs continue rising as spreads widen between Treasuries and corporate bonds, signaling medium-term economic slowdown ahead as speculative companies lose financing access.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira866Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    The Entropy Trap: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Warsh slow walking rate cut, White House greenlit one hike1:32 FOMC divided, one rate hike likely before Labor Day2:35 White House supporting Warsh to maintain credibility3:39 One hike doesn't typically happen alone4:42 Warsh reducing Fed presence, pulling back on forward guidance5:10 Fed's 2% target won't change consumer behavior on inflation7:29 Oil stocks at 20-year low, diesel shortage critical11:40 Iran ceasefire fragile, no incentive for lasting peace13:41 U.S. must build pipelines, avoid Strait of Hormuz14:08 Physical oil stocks depleted, refined products in short supply15:26 Diesel is political issue - impacts economy, employment16:06 California facing potential rationing without supplies16:36 Diesel up 30% this year, ripples through entire economy17:32 Double-digit inflation thesis still stands despite market skeptics18:46 Prediction markets vs real economy - spreads tell story20:06 Consumer inflation expectations hit 3.7% one-year (3-year high)20:27 Psychology of inflation changes spending and investment behavior21:34 Real estate traditional hedge, prices skyrocketing22:20 Spreads widening, economy slowing medium-term23:35 Earnings season next week - credit costs key indicator24:19 Midterms - Democrats take House, Trump faces impeachment25:32 Politics won't change, nothing gets done26:41 Pfizer building conversion collapsing, structural problems29:17 Bunker Hill Mining penny stock opportunity, silver revival31:28 Banks earnings - watch credit costs, mortgage issuers follow

Danielle DiMartino Booth praises the FOMC minutes as "clean" under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh—no manipulation of data like Janet Yellen did in 2013—and notes Warsh has successfully convened consensus around "less is more" Fed communications with an unusually quiet media environment. The real bombshell is the July jobs data: the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% only because 720,000 Americans gave up looking for work in a single month, representing a 50-year low in labor force participation since 1976, while 49% of adults under 30 now live with their parents as affordability collapses and job insecurity rises. Danielle warns the official narrative of economic strength masks a deteriorating real economy: revolving credit declined (a sign lenders are tightening), consumer confidence shows jobs are hard to get, and vacation spending has crashed to Great Recession levels—yet mainstream media remains fixated on an inflation narrative unsupported by broad data. The biggest systemic risk is the "too big to fail" stock market: 51% of global assets now sit outside the regulated banking system, asset managers hold assets larger than major banks, and the government can't allow equity market collapse when 401(k)s are the only retirement plans left, implying inevitable Fed monetization and the "end of capitalism." Her source of hope: summer interns aged 18-28 who are hungry, hardworking, and reject the "too big to fail" mentality—representing a generation determined to work their way out rather than accept billionaire UBI schemes designed to maintain inequality.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome back Danielle DiMartino Booth 00:40 FOMC minutes from June - Clean, Warsh didn't manipulate data1:30 Warsh convened consensus, less is more communications working2:57 Forward guidance removal, Fed less visible, refreshingly quiet3:20 Elizabeth Warren defends bloated 12 district banks, Waller calling it out4:38 Warsh has convened consensus around leadership position5:13 Warsh refuses forward guidance, hints at ending dot plot6:23 Inflation cooling seen but Iran hostilities change calculus6:59 No press conference if nothing to say - Hail Mary move7:25 Mervyn King taking communications, five task forces with outsiders8:49 Kalshi traders: 79% hold rates in July, 76% expect no cuts 20269:36 Labor force participation 50-year low since 197615:35 720,000 Americans gave up looking for work in one month16:05 Unemployment fell to 4.2% but for wrong reasons16:59 Full-time jobs destroyed, replaced by gig workers17:36 Labor market called stable but disconnect with data18:18 Jobs hard to get at highest level, Americans aware19:30 Revolving credit down, unusual sign of lender tightening20:20 49% of adults under 30 living with parents21:12 Five of 20 K-Shiller metro areas below 2000 price levels22:35 Young people disenfranchised, AI destroying college degree value24:32 Stock market too big to fail - implies Fed buying equities25:01 Inequality gap - bottom 10% stock holdings fell 3% to 1%26:14 Top 0.1% holdings doubled, bottom K getting bigger26:33 Worry about social fabric fraying with K-shaped economy29:16 Billionaires pushing UBI while controlling AI benefits30:14 Work ethic is what made America great30:30 Writing piece on too big to fail for weekly flagship32:08 51% of global assets outside regulated banking system33:34 Summer interns give hope - bright, hungry, great work ethic34:45 Young generation rejects too big to fail narrative 

Michael Every, Global Strategist for Economics and Markets at Rabobank, presents a radical framework: everything is now about economic statecraft and geopolitics, not traditional monetary or fiscal policy, meaning central banks, interest rates, and economic structures are all subsets of national security objectives. Central bank models are broken because exogenous geopolitical supply shocks (Iran war, Ukraine, COVID) constantly disrupt equilibrium assumptions, and the old playbook of managing demand through one global interest rate no longer works in a fragmenting world with different sectors having different national security priorities. He warns the biggest risk is far more war ahead, specifically predicting Iran war will resume after the midterms because tolls, sanctions, uranium, and Lebanon remain unresolved—Iran is losing leverage as oil flows increase and the world moves on, so it will need to "rock the boat" to regain attention. Interest rates will trend higher due to massive fiscal pressures on defense spending, reshoring, supply chain security, and infrastructure investment, and differential interest rates will emerge where sectors critical to national security borrow cheaper than speculative sectors. He argues the private sector will be tasked with moonshot innovations (like AI and Manhattan Project-style programs) that governments can't afford alone, with government potentially taking stakes in critical companies like OpenAI and Intel. On the Strait of Hormuz, he dismisses markets pricing 45% chance of normalization before October 1 as too optimistic, noting ships run dark, ship-to-ship transfers hide traffic, and geopolitics will escalate after midterms—Hormuz will never fully normalize as countries build alternatives. America will retain primacy going forward but must completely reinvent itself economically and politically, with broader appeal to allies while accepting a world where other powers have their own sphere of influence, and whoever holds office will face the same underlying reality that American power projection equals American living standards.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/our-experts/011085368/michael-everyhttps://x.com/themichaeleveryTimestamps: 0:00 Everything now about geopolitics, not traditional economics2:00 Michael's background - 30 years, 9 countries, cross-border analyst5:20 Economic statecraft framework - national power is driving force6:06 Policymakers getting it, but many still don't understand8:16 Central bank models don't work, they never did8:40 Exogenous supply shocks (Iran, Ukraine, COVID) keep breaking models11:36 One interest rate doesn't work in fragmenting world15:33 Central banks being cagey about structural changes19:21 Geography matters - some countries will thrive, others fail23:20 Rates going higher, not lower for longer23:29 Massive fiscal pressures on defense, supply chains, infrastructure26:25 Differential interest rates by sector based on national security priority27:06 Biggest risk - far more war coming28:19 Iran war after midterms, not resolved yet31:59 Defense contractors won't make huge profits - government controls pricing34:40 AI is about national security, not making money35:31 Government may need private sector to fund moonshots they can't afford36:19 Government taking stakes in strategic companies (OpenAI, Intel, Trump)39:04 Strait of Hormuz assessment42:59 Iran needs to rock the boat, leverage slipping away44:19 Kalshi market too optimistic on Hormuz normalization45:08 Hormuz won't ever fully normalize again46:04 US still primary power but must reinvent itself49:15 America can retain primacy but it will look different50:09 Whoever's in office has to return to same arguments on American power

Chris Whalen kicks off the July 4th episode of The Wrap by diving into private credit implosion with BDCs turning unprofitable, using the acronym POOP (Principal on Outstanding Principal) to illustrate how debt is being converted to equity because companies can't pay—essentially turning investors into equity holders in insolvent companies. The June jobs report shocked with only 57K payrolls added (far below expectations) while household employment actually fell by 500K, making the data contradictory and unreliable despite the overall labor market still showing relative steadiness in many markets. Housing shows sharp bifurcation: sales above $1 million hit a record high while overall volume is down, revealing that only luxury properties are moving as the broader market softens. Goldman Sachs projects gold could hit $4,900, and Whalen is holding silver as a hedge against dollar debasement and inflation, noting the Chinese are aggressively buying silver in both futures and spot markets. Trump has profited handsomely from his various crypto ventures while most investors in those same ventures have lost significant money—a familiar pattern from Trump's business history. With the US national debt now at $39.35 trillion on America's 250th birthday, Whalen warns the Democratic Party will split between socialists and Republicans, with policies like New York's rent freezing turning cities into slums while hurting mom-and-pop landlords. He recommends watching interest rates, the Fed under Kevin Warsh, and expects another uptick in gold and silver prices after recent selloffs, while cautioning on BDCs and private credit exposure as the distress signals mount.Thank you to today's episode sponsor, The Entropy Trap by Mickey Maini. Order your copy: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1 Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira864Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:00:00 — Intro and World Cup chat1:09 Gold rebounds, AI stocks slump1:38 Private credit - BDCs turning unprofitable2:40 POOP acronym - Principal on Outstanding Principal, crap debt4:07 POOP emoji Bloomberg article, Victor Hong invented term5:54 AI stocks slumping, pressure on private credit portfolios6:00 Market doesn't like it right now11:23 June non-farm payrolls - 57K added, much worse than expected11:44 May/June comparisons all over place, household employment down 500K12:21 Can't take a lot out of these numbers13:33 Labor market steady to extent we can rely on statistics14:12 Housing costs up, Americans work harder to compensate14:12 Goldman Sachs says gold could hit $4,90015:31 Chinese aggressive buyers of silver, not changing view16:06 Gold/silver hedge against dollar and inflation17:40 US national debt at $39.35 trillion on country's birthday18:12 Democratic Party gonna get torn in half18:50 Rise of democratic socialist candidates19:49 Rent freezing turning NYC into slum, mom and pop landlords hurt20:17 How much money to live in NYC reasonably? Way more than poverty level21:45 Trump crypto - Done well, investors lost a lot23:32 Book - Entropy Trap by Mickey Maini29:33 90% of mortgage market government insured, no systemic bailout needed32:43 Silver good play medium to long term as hedge34:13 Back half of year focused on interest rates35:13 Watching Fed, Kevin Warsh, uptick in gold/silver coming

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, returns for his quarterly update to argue that markets and the economy are telling two completely different stories. While equities keep melting up toward a likely blow-off top, his models show the "quiet hand" of the real economy — labor market deterioration, rising full-time job losses, record credit card delinquencies, and a struggling housing sector — already rolling over into what he calls a structural recession. He walks through his indicator framework, explains why he's not calling an imminent recession yet (two more liquidity and yield signals are needed), and lays out his "Zeberg Solomon Protocol" for when he'd fully rotate out of stocks into bonds. The conversation also covers his contrarian views on inflation (he thinks disinflation, not inflation, is coming), his skepticism on Bitcoin's long-term value despite expecting a short-term bounce, a near-term gold and dollar bounce followed by major dollar strength, and his boldest calls for a year from now — including a bursting AI bubble and Bitcoin below $20,000.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: X: https://x.com/HenrikZebergSubstack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4HTimestamps:00:00 – Intro: welcoming back Henrik Zeberg, head macroeconomist at SwissBlock01:05 – Recap: the rally he called last quarter played out as predicted01:36 – Stock market hasn't topped, but the real economy is quietly rolling over03:50 – The split between the "financial economy" and the "real economy"04:42 – His "structural recession call" — what it means and what's still missing05:25 – Kalshi's recession odds (10.4%) vs. what Henrik's model is showing06:25 – Why almost nobody sees a recession coming until it's already here07:06 – Breaking down GDP: why the consumer (70%) is the real signal to watch09:58 – Labor market red flags: falling participation, part-time vs. full-time jobs, long-term unemployment12:33 – The "avalanche" analogy — how a slow buildup becomes a sudden crisis14:59 – Credit card delinquencies now above 2009 recession levels16:04 – Why housing is the earliest domino to fall19:30 – Structural recession call, explained in full — and the two triggers he's waiting on24:45 – The market's "loud hand": no top yet, more melt-up ahead27:07 – Risk rotation theory — from mega-caps into small caps and speculative names29:16 – Why he thinks the inflation narrative is wrong (savings rate argument)32:57 – Stock vs. flow: the bathtub analogy for inflation vs. price levels33:28 – What could still push this "blow-off top" rally further34:32 – His own portfolio moves — how much cash vs. risk he's holding36:57 – The "Zeberg Solomon Protocol" — his signal for exiting stocks entirely into bonds39:37 – Bitcoin: why he's bullish on a short-term bounce but bearish long-term42:23 – Gold outlook tied to a weakening (then re-strengthening) dollar43:43 – Dollar forecast: DXY to 93–94 short term, then a run toward 120+44:56 – One-year-out contrarian calls: AI bubble bursting, Bitcoin under $20K, recession confirmed47:06 – Where to find Henrik's work47:25 – Parting thoughts: don't trust a crowded consensus trade

Andrew Pancholi, founder and CEO of the Market Timing Report, joins the show for his debut to explain his framework of mathematical cycles—repeating patterns spanning 36, 60, 90, 100, 144, and 250 years that he uses to forecast turning points across markets, commodities, and geopolitics. He argues we're broadly tracking the 1920s bull market toward a potential 2029 peak, but warns he's turned more bearish near-term after Friday's data showed smart money leaving US equities, eyeing the third week of July as a major turning point. Pancholi shares striking targets—$183 oil if Middle East conflict escalates, $6,900 gold by March 2027, and a continued bearish view on Bitcoin—while tying current events to historical cycles, including the 36-year anniversary of Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the US 250-year empire cycle. A commercial Boeing 777 pilot, he closes by connecting aviation's risk management and situational awareness to disciplined trading, emphasizing incremental gains over any "holy grail."Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:x.com/AndrewPancholilinkedin.com/in/andrewpancholiyoutube.com/@markettimingreportinstagram.com/andrew.pancholifacebook.com/markettimingcyclesanalysisTimestamps:00:00 – Intro: who is Andrew Pancholi01:21 – The big picture: mathematical cycles framework02:00 – The 100-year cycle & path to 202902:30 – 90-year geopolitical cycle & polarization05:29 – Equity markets: top or pullback?08:21 – Smart money leaving US equities10:43 – Kalshi prediction markets & 7,800 S&P target13:15 – Third week of July turning point explained14:12 – Charts: how the timing system works20:17 – "You can't time the market" — the pushback24:39 – The cycles explained: 30, 36, 45, 90, 144, 250 years27:40 – War & revolution cycles, US civil strife28:48 – The major war cycle nobody's talking about31:41 – Oil outlook: $183 target33:35 – Gold: bearish near-term, $6,900 target35:12 – Bitcoin outlook35:48 – The 250-year empire cycle & America's birthday40:03 – Zero Hour book & cycles that failed42:28 – From Boeing 777 pilot to cycles analyst43:51 – COVID pandemic forecasted by the 100-year cycle46:04 – Risk management lessons from flying51:35 – Parting thoughts & where to find his work

Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche on this week's episode of "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" to break down what he calls a "slow motion train wreck" in private credit, where public and private funds alike are getting hammered with redemption requests just as the firms behind them sit on impaired assets like DSCR business-purpose loans. Whalen argues we're living through a replay of 2005 — high tide before the crack — and predicts a housing reset by 2027-2028 ("misery on the eights"), with home prices falling 10-20% and recent borrowers landing underwater. Along the way he covers double-digit inflation driven by energy supply shocks from the Strait of Hormuz, why Chair Warsh can't slow-walk rate hikes, the volatility added by agentic AI trading and ETFs, his long-term bull case for gold and silver, the unwinding of Wall Street's crypto trade, the futility of Mamdani's NYC rent freeze, and viewer questions on inflation measurement and Annaly's common vs. preferred shares. Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira861Fred Ramberg interview: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira860 Signed copy of Seeing Around Corners: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/shopTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:00:00 — Intro01:09 — Private credit: the "slow motion train wreck" and redemptions02:24 — Rates higher-for-longer, double-digit inflation & the Strait of Hormuz04:02 — The hidden cost of war and inflation as a tax05:33 — Private credit shops buying insurers & DSCR loans06:46 — "It's 2005 again" and the road to misery on the eights07:46 — Signposts: institutional fraud in business-purpose loans08:45 — What a DSCR loan is vs. a residential mortgage11:55 — The private credit gates connection12:32 — Predicting the 2028 housing reset & price declines14:52 — How rising prices have masked defaults15:27 — A 10-20% home price reset explained15:46 — Which markets crack first (Florida, Miami, blue-state Northeast)17:10 — Mom-and-pop investors and fix-and-flips17:49 — Advice for homebuyers: stay below the conforming limit18:42 — AI & semiconductor stock volatility19:15 — Agentic trading bots and market manipulation20:35 — Precious metals: gold below 4,000, silver near 5722:37 — PCE data, sticky inflation & the gold-silver case23:13 — Crypto falling apart, MicroStrategy & BlackRock selling24:33 — CME suing over perps (perpetual futures)25:34 — The NYC rent freeze / Mamdani hot take26:49 — Viewer mail: changing the definition of inflation28:20 — Viewer mail: is the debasement trade over?29:08 — Viewer mail: Annaly common vs. preferred31:03 — What's ahead next week (plus World Cup talk)32:46 — Wrap-up

Veteran market analyst Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company joins Julia for a mid-year macro check-in, and his message is decidedly cautious: after 42 years in finance, he believes the time has come to prioritize capital preservation over capital appreciation, especially in U.S. equities. Grandich lays out his bearish case across political, social, and economic lines—warning of a deeply divided Congress that couldn't manage another 2008-style crisis, a likely Democratic House sweep in the midterms that could derail Trump's agenda, runaway federal and state deficits, the looming threat of wealth and unrealized capital gains taxes, and the displacement of jobs by AI and robotics. He explains why he favors Asian equities over American ones, why he's cautiously back in gold (but not a "gold bug"), and why passive investing—once the market's biggest tailwind—could become its biggest risk. Closing with a vivid craps-table metaphor about a market overdue for a "seven," Grandich ultimately pivots to faith and family, reminding viewers that net worth shouldn't be confused with self-worth.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: https://x.com/PeterGrandichhttps://petergrandich.com/https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6Timestamps: 00:00 — Welcome back & catching up with Peter Grandich01:06 — Big-picture macro: "live chicken vs. dead duck"06:28 — Midterms outlook & the political divide10:54 — Echoes of 1929 and why this time is different12:00 — State deficits, surcharges & "revenue enhancement"13:11 — Taxes17:30 — Congressional & presidential stock trading20:20 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh & rate policy22:59 — Inflation: is the 2% target dead?25:07 — Wealth inequality & the jobs picture28:18 — Allocation strategy: why "cookie cutter" fails30:40 — Gold32:00 — Spend less than you make33:19 — Why look outside the U.S. market34:00 — Passive investing: the market's biggest risk38:38 — The craps table metaphor41:32 — Parting thoughts: faith, family & "what good is it to gain the world?"

Peter Schiff warns the bubble is popping as crypto leads the decline, while the bond market faces another breakdown with the 10-year potentially breaking above 5%. He emphasizes inflation is a choice—all Fed chairs chose it, and Warsh will too despite tough talk, because the alternative is politically unacceptable. He reveals the May deficit surged 30% while interest expense jumped 44%, with annual interest payments now hitting $1.6 trillion and will be $2 trillion by next year. Schiff identifies Japan as a looming harbinger with 250% debt-to-GDP, yields climbing above 4%, and the yen collapsing below 160 with potential for another 30-50% decline. His end game thesis: the US dollar loses reserve currency status, US assets get repriced down, and he's positioning to "have all the chips" at the finish line. Gold's pullback from $5,600 to $4,200 is a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" move, while silver at $65 is headed to $200 and Bitcoin at $64,000 should be sold. GDP growth is an illusion created by faulty deflators that understate inflation; the economy hasn't really expanded, just become more expensive, and stagflationary depression is locked in. Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:https://x.com/PeterSchiffhttps://www.youtube.com/@peterschiffTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Peter Schiff 00:50 Air coming out of bubble 1:16 Markets too complacent on inflation risks1:45 Warsh has a problem - Hike or no hike, both bad3:36 Inflation is a choice - All Fed chairs chose it5:11 Warsh will choose inflation despite tough talk5:24 Bond market breakdown coming - 10-year to 5%, 30-year to 5.5-6%7:42 May deficit up 30%, interest expense up 44%8:13 Interest payments $1.6 trillion/year, will be $2 trillion next year9:39 Government spending up 50% since COVID, taxes reduced10:57 Inflation is hidden tax - Government prefers it11:52 Iran war costs through inflation, not direct taxation13:49 Wealth tax - Slippery slope, will hit middle class eventually19:56 Japan crisis - Debt to GDP 250%, yen collapsing below 16020:29 Japanese bond yields at 4% on 30-year, rising fast21:45 Japan could sell $1 trillion in US treasuries24:41 Japan harbinger for US crisis24:54 Treasury Secretary Paulson says crisis inevitable27:18 Gold warning sign - Pullback to $4,200 from $5,600 normal29:24 Silver at $65, headed to $20032:39 Stock market at highs but economy worse than Biden36:56 GDP illusion - Deflator too low, just prices not growth39:48 End game - Dollar won't be reserve currency40:40 Playing for end game, wants all chips at finish43:31 Contrarian predictions - Higher rates, higher oil, higher gold44:30 Japan crisis first domino, then dollar next45:01 Summary - Stagflation and end game thesis

Chris Whalen is back for The Wrap after his fishing trip in Maine, where he caught a 21-inch smallmouth bass! He's very positive on Kevin Warsh's "less is more" approach at the Fed—no forward guidance, likely removing the dot plot, and refocusing on letting the numbers speak for themselves rather than trying to control expectations through communication. Whalen argues the bond market has already delivered a rate hike on its own, and if he were Warsh, he'd wait and see how the Iran peace deal holds before making more moves, given that war inflation is transitory and external to Fed policy. He reveals the definition of inflation will likely be narrowed to minimize rate hikes and avoid tanking the economy, and he's watching a massive rebalancing from equities to bonds at record allocation levels. Whalen sold most of his AI stocks and locked in serious gains, but he's holding SpaceX as a long-term play given Elon's monopolies on space launch and global internet. He warns the AI bubble is going south with Mike Saylor and Bitcoin spiraling, sees gold and silver as a great entry point after being beaten down, and is adding to positions. He explains silver's manufacturing and technology demand while copper faces supply constraints. On Iran, Whalen argues the MOU doesn't solve underlying inflation drivers—diesel, fertilizer, energy ripple through the economy—so double-digit inflation is locked in with no Fed rate cuts coming. He's concerned about private credit festering with two-and-twenty fees still common, distressed debt exchanges now over 70% of defaults since 2022, and he likes Annaly as a mortgage REIT with government-insured assets and mortgage servicing rights providing protection. Whalen notes precious metals could still rise despite rate hikes because central banks will keep accumulating gold as reserve assets. Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira858Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen1:47 Warsh sets different tone - No forward guidance, likely no dot plots3:33 Less is more approach - Fed was communicating too much5:43 Bond market has already done the rate hike6:50 War inflation is transitory - External factor Fed can't control7:19 Definition of inflation will be adjusted/narrowed9:10 Bond market doing tightening, not Fed funds rate10:34 Rebalancing from equities to bonds at record levels11:50 Sold most AI stocks, took profits, holding SpaceX12:07 SpaceX monopoly on space/internet - Long term play13:57 AI trade, Bitcoin15:57 Gold/silver beaten up but good entry, adding positions17:02 Silver manufacturing and technology demand17:49 Copper supply/demand - Not enough copper globally19:32 Iran MOU doesn't solve underlying issues21:45 Double-digit inflation locked in - Diesel, fertilizer ripple22:34 Fed can't fix war-driven inflation23:52 No rate cuts coming - Business banking on cuts won't get them24:48 Private credit festering problem - Two and twenty fees26:16 Distressed debt exchanges over 70% of defaults29:27 Annaly - Mortgage REIT with government insured assets30:00 Precious metals could rise despite rate hikes - Central banks buying31:43 Precious metals dollar strength question32:07 Next week

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, gives Kevin Warsh a 9 out of 10 on his first FOMC meeting and press conference, saying "it sounds like he's fed up too" after witnessing a dramatic departure from Powell's approach. Warsh delivered a remarkably short statement (140 words vs Powell's 341 words), removed the dot plot entirely ("show don't tell"), eliminated forward guidance, and created five task forces including communications overhaul, data exploration, and inflationary frameworks review. Danielle was thrilled he's revisiting the arbitrary 2% inflation target, moving away from core PCE (which she calls "a bunch of BS" because stock market gains inflate the metric), and exploring trim mean inflation instead. Warsh went to a grocery store asking people if Fed policy actually helps with gas, beef, and egg prices—demonstrating he understands Fed policy cannot address supply-driven inflation. He called non-farm payroll data "echoes of history" and demanded accountability, slamming the NBER for being "derelict in their duty" to call recessions when bankruptcy filings are up 38% year-over-year and personal bankruptcies surged 8%. Danielle warns the market is "calling his bluff" after today's sell-off, notes no junk bonds have been sold in 41 days signaling credit stress, and says to watch the MOVE index and credit spreads closely as the next tell. She's cautiously optimistic but "wait and see," drawing comparisons to Powell's 2018 pivot when he reversed course after market pain. Warsh managed a unanimous vote despite the aggressive reform agenda.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10.⁠ http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Fed day with Danielle DiMartino Booth 1:37 Statement very short - 140 words vs Powell's 341, "fed up too"2:14 No forward guidance, removed dot plot - "show don't tell"3:13 Warsh strategic approach - "I'm going to fix this broken institution"5:20 Five task forces including communications and inflationary frameworks7:48 Revisit 2% inflation target - Arbitrary and unnecessary14:10 Rate cuts - most traders on Kalshi expect zero16:57 Markets lower today, Wall Street calling his bluff17:51 Bankruptcies up 38.4% year over year, personal up 8%19:00 NBER derelict in recession calling - Should have called 202524:43 Non-farm payroll data unreliable until third revision - "echoes of history"26:09 Financial markets work best reacting to real data, not Fed speak27:20 Overall impression 9 out of 10, cautiously optimistic29:15 Watch MOVE index and credit spreads for next signal30:00 Warsh got unanimous vote - Corralled all governors

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, warns the market is exhibiting all the markings of late stage using a Warren Buffett 1999 quote: "when you get to the point where every single thing that people do, any kind of strategy is up in the market...you're probably toward the end." He describes it as a "lemmings market" where followers are piling in, notes IPOs are bursting (90% lose money over 135 years), and reveals the Mag 7 is mostly down since November with only semiconductors rallying. Oakley warns baby boomers are "brain dead" and way over-invested in stocks at historic highs as a percentage of assets—if a bear market hits like 2000-2003 (down 55%), they lack the liquidity to sustain their lifestyle during down years. He's adding back gold after it corrected from $5,500 to $4,000, buying copper and natural gas as plays on AI infrastructure needs, and positioning for a commodity supercycle in early innings driven by countries hoarding raw materials. Oakley reveals energy is "dramatically cheap" with 6-8% dividends, oil reserves are depleted, and he's building a "well to the end" strategy with producers and pipelines that "can't be replaced"—like railroads. He explains gold is becoming the new currency reserve as countries dump treasuries for gold, warns private credit is a blowup risk at 11.75% rates, and emphasizes that for SpaceX windfall employees, they should take money off the table and ice enough for life. His parting advice: stick with your principles and don't let the hype throw you off.Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Opening and introduction1:23 Market assessment 2:40 IPOs3:49 Late stage market indicators 7:14 Added back gold after trimming early year, mining stocks down 30%8:05 Copper and natural gas needed for AI infrastructure8:25 Companies on fundamentals, not macro chasing11:16 Next 10 years commodity-based market12:51 Commodity supercycle early innings18:54 Energy thesis21:47 Gold thesis - Currency reserve replacing treasuries28:30 Bifurcated economy29:18 Baby boomers way overinvested32:30 Everybody's in market more than any time37:25 Biggest risk - Government nobody believes in39:53 Private credit issue 42:24 SpaceX windfall employees - Take some off table44:07 Parting thoughts - Stick with your principles

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals an "explosive" John Dizard interview dropping next week on rationing of synthetic lubricants for turbines and hybrid cars before the midterms, while the Trump administration stays blind to the supply crisis from destroyed Persian Gulf refineries. Markets are already processing the damage, but the Trump admin lacks the organization to prepare Americans for coming energy rationing and diesel shortages. Whalen argues the Fed is "powerless" against external war-driven shocks, yet double-digit inflation is "locked in" for certain categories. He's taking profits on AI stocks (AMD, ARM) after 150-200% gains, bought back into Chevron, and declares Bitcoin "toast" as the crypto bubble bursts. He warns communities blocking data center projects will become "very significant negatives" for AI, and describes the current market as "manic"—driven purely by Fed Covid cash into AI stocks as people chase shiny objects rather than value. Monetary-Metals.com/julia Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira852Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome 01:00 Markets this week - Tech hit hard, gold erased gains, Bitcoin crushed4:02 John Dizard interview - Rationing synthetic lubricants before midterms5:30 Trump admin blind to crisis, needs WWII-level mobilization7:58 Suppliers already rationing, July/August shortages pronounced10:41 Double-digit inflation locked in, Fed powerless against external shocks11:58 Taking profits on AI - Sold AMD, ARM, back into Chevron13:19 Fed doesn't understand financial markets or mortgage servicing14:40 Bond spreads tight - Scarcity of quality assets17:28 Bill Pulte as Acting Director of National Intelligence - Political payback20:20 Trump shoots from hip, alienating Republicans, can't get anything done21:02 Kevin Warsh quote - 3% inflation destroys economies22:10 Gold erased 2026 gains - Higher rates, Bitcoin collapse23:48 Bitcoin toast - BlackRock selling, crypto bubble burst25:19 Manic market not driven by value, chasing AI26:00 Communities blocking data center projects - Politics killing AI27:07 Bubble driven by Fed Covid cash flood28:43 Parting thoughts - Fishing in Maine, Dizard interview next week

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-studio episode. In this episode, Howell reveals money is flowing out of financial markets into the real economy, marking the end of Wall Street's era and the beginning of Main Street's turn. He warns the market is in a "speculation phase" with low quality returns built on narrow foundations—only AI and semiconductors are racing while most securities stagnate—and the next phase will be "turbulence" as liquidity slows and the bearish flattening yield curve continues. Howell details how the system has monetized with the Treasury refinancing $600 billion per week in short-term bills, notes there is "unquestionably way too much debt," and makes the contrarian call that the Fed will raise rates in the next 12 months because the economy is too strong at 7-8% nominal GDP growth. He positions commodities and energy as the place to be, argues gold is a hedge against monetary inflation (not CPI), and suggests the gold-oil ratio could imply oil prices of $200 per barrel.Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercapSubstack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/30303929020:00 Opening - Money leaving financial markets for real economy1:29 Speculation phase - Low quality returns on narrow foundations6:49 Liquidity rolling over - Rate of change critical7:38 Money flowing from financial sector to real economy13:23 Debt refinancing phenomenon - 4 out of 5 transactions15:25 Way too much debt, only monetization is the way out16:40 China monetizing like Japan did with Abenomics19:32 US monetization already happening - $600B weekly debt refinancing24:28 MOVE index suppressed through treasury buybacks30:12 Kevin Warsh expectations for new Fed chair32:01 Inflation no longer transitory - Now illusionary35:48 Monetary inflation hurdle 7-8% per year37:26 What to own - Diversified into commodities, energy, gold40:10 Gold-oil ratio could mean oil $200 per barrel40:50 Contrarian call - Fed must raise rates in 12 months43:15 Find him at Capital Wars Substack

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals bank incomes are up but the real story is the trading side of the house driving earnings, not lending, as deposits grow faster than assets forcing banks into trading operations. He warns private credit default rates have hit a record 6%, nearly 10 times worse than bank default rates, signaling the end of the credit cycle as non-banks now lead lending. Whalen predicts double-digit inflation remains likely, expects QE5 to come despite Warsh's denials since the Fed balance sheet must grow proportionally with federal debt, and argues Fed policy is losing efficacy against external war-driven inflation that raising rates won't fix. He discusses massive housing consolidation and M&A deals coming as mortgage lenders face crushing higher rates, details how private equity is rolling up every service provider imaginable (plumbers, electricians, dentists, oncologists) and "screwing them up terribly," warns TIPS aren't reflecting true inflation, and predicts major housing lender mergers between now and year end. Whalen maintains his thesis that the Fed doesn't control long-term rates and that shrinking the balance sheet would be more effective than raising the Fed funds rate, argues the AI momentum trade is crowded and silly, and expects no action from the Fed in June but potential rate hike language removal from statements. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira847Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Introduction - Bank Income Up, Stocks Sideways01:00 Banks recap5:06 Private credit default rate record 6% - 10x worse than banks6:14 Who's most exposed to private credit losses?7:36 Reversal in low rate environment impact9:39 Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet strategy10:01 Double-digit inflation still likely?10:40 What were worst impacts of QE?11:00 Housing was the headline impact of QE12:43 Fed housing subsidy went outside their mandate12:51 Fed is progressive institution out of control13:49 We may be closer to QE5 than Bessent knows15:05 Fed balance sheet must grow with federal debt16:04 New leadership - what about Fed funds rate?16:18 Potential for cut or hike?18:06 Base case still stagflation?20:12 Private equity excess cash looking for yield22:10 Politics of housing affordability daunting23:35 Viewer questions - TIPS24:26 Municipal bond default risk 26:24 Why higher inflation won't drive down gold28:42 AI craziness - momentum market29:31 Trump wanted cuts but prospects disappearing29:54 June FOMC - don't expect action31:20 Fed balance sheet more important than Fed funds rate33:11 Next week - bank report Monday

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down how the Iran war situation is sinking GOP hopes for the midterms as he predicts double-digit inflation by year end driven by critical petroleum product shortages, with John Dizard warning rationing is coming to the United States for intensive products like gas turbine lubricants. Whalen explains the Fed will be forced to hike rates as early as July according to Diane Swonk, representing a dramatic shift from rate cut expectations just weeks ago, though raising rates won't help with external war-driven inflation and politics will eventually force cuts if the economy slows. He reveals real gas prices are actually low when adjusted for 15 years of dollar purchasing power loss, discusses how the politics of affordability will reshape the landscape with Republicans at risk of losing both House and Senate, and maintains his long gold position as inflation hedge while viewing silver as a commercial play on technology demand. Whalen details Kevin Warsh's strategy to shrink the Fed balance sheet while credibly cutting short-term rates by forcing markets to absorb more duration, explains why the 1970s stock market stagnation differs from today due to demographics and higher stock ownership, predicts Social Security will eventually be means-tested as the math has reversed from 10 workers per retiree to the opposite, and argues passive investment mechanisms killed crypto with Wall Street ETFs now controlling price action. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira847Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Introduction - Inflation sinks GOP, private credit drama0:37 Fed will have to get in front of inflation now1:35 Iran situation sinking GOP hopes for midterms2:21 Rationing coming to the United States - John Dizard prediction3:21 Could hit double-digit inflation by year end3:51 Walk through the double-digit inflation thesis5:58 Real gas prices are actually low when adjusted for inflation7:00 Knock-on effects of double-digit inflation7:23 Politics of affordability will reshape US landscape8:01 Republicans in danger of losing House and Senate8:45 Diane Swonk thinks rate hike as early as July9:01 How big of a shift is this in Fed's thinking?9:53 Last time asset holders benefited - Will it be different this time?11:49 Gold and silver behaving differently lately13:09 Long gold as inflation hedge, silver as commercial play14:01 Kevin Warsh could shrink Fed balance sheet while cutting short rates17:39 Viewer mail - Inflation scenario with liquidity trap20:11 Viewer question on Annaly dividend22:11 1970s inflation vs today - Why stocks didn't make new highs then24:05 Blue state housing policies debate27:06 Social Security funding crisis - Means testing coming?28:36 Third rail of American politics28:49 Stablecoin reserve status question31:02 Chris's parting thoughts - Significant change in narratives33:03 Closing thoughts

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss the stark disconnect between Wall Street momentum and the collapsing consumer, revealing credit card and auto loan delinquencies are now at Great Financial Crisis levels while the economy has shifted from K-shaped to "i-shaped" with only a tiny dot at the top. He explains his letter "The Gambler" addresses how younger investors have abandoned real investing for a betting culture of sports gambling, one-day options, and Bitcoin, while most advisors no longer know when to "hold 'em or fold 'em." Ted maintains 50% cash in short-term treasuries, predicts inflation will hit 4.25% in May rising to 4.75% by fall with financial repression as the only way out of the debt trap, and reveals energy is his largest position up 35% year-to-date despite being only 3% of the S&P (it was 33% in 1980). He expects energy to rip like gold and silver did last year since nobody owns it yet, outlines his "well to the end" strategy covering producers to pipelines to rigs, confirms we're in early innings of a commodity super cycle, and warns speculation will continue pushing until a recession breaks the momentum. Ted draws parallels to 1999 when shorts got killed for nine more months, sees no recession on the horizon yet to break the fever, and cautions that baby boomers age 65+ hold more stock than ever in history making them the worst positioned he's ever seen for the eventual wealth transfer.Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Ted Oakley returns, founder of Oxbow Advisors0:56 Two different things - Wall Street vs. the economy1:42 Consumer keeps falling apart - Credit card delinquencies at GFC levels2:24 K-shaped economy becoming more like an "i-shaped" economy3:32 "The Gambler" letter - Younger investors just betting, not investing4:02 Betting culture - Sports betting, one-day options, Bitcoin5:21 Know when to hold them, know when to fold them5:39 Cash position at 50% in short-term treasuries6:41 Long bond move - Topped 5.19% on 30-year6:57 Late 70s/early 80s parallel - Inflation went from 5% to 18%7:49 Are bond vigilantes coming back?7:54 Bond market eventually rules everything8:21 Expectation of more inflation ahead8:27 May CPI could come in at 4.25% or higher, 4.5-4.75% by fall9:30 Financial repression is the only way out10:36 Can't see how Fed cuts rates at all11:09 Asset holders benefited from inflation but that changes in linear inflation12:18 Energy is largest position - Up 35% vs. S&P's 20%13:11 Big tech stocks barely up from November/December levels13:41 Semiconductors probably at high for next 5 years14:34 Energy dramatically underweight in portfolios - Only 3% of S&P15:03 1980: Energy was 33% of S&P15:54 Energy names - Well to the end strategy16:53 Producers, midstream, rigs - The whole package17:34 Where we are in commodity cycle - Early innings18:38 Commodity positions - Rio Tinto, Vale, uranium, antimony, critical minerals19:18 Oil price and energy thesis20:16 AutoZone warning on motor oil shortages coming20:54 Precious metals positioning today21:54 Gold could go to $4,000 or $3,800 - Shake out momentum players23:12 1999 parallel - Momentum could continue 9 more months24:19 No recession on horizon - Need that to break momentum25:14 Speculative nature pushes until recession breaks it25:51 Second Generation Wealth - Massive wealth transfer concerns26:31 Baby boomers 65+ have most stock in assets ever in history27:22 Closing thoughts

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, returns to review his February predictions on bonds, energy, and the AI trade, warning that the margin of safety is particularly small right now as there's no room for error with stocks highly valued, companies over-earning, and policymakers unable to ease on either fiscal or monetary fronts. He explains bond vigilantes are awakening as yields hit 30-year highs in Japan and 20-year highs in Europe, predicts the Fed cutting rates against surging inflation will backfire spectacularly, and reveals forward oil contracts are finally rising as the market believes this situation won't pass quickly. Noble declares we're in the "golden age for stock picking" after active managers got killed by ETFs for years, warns the consumer is already in recession with stocks like Home Depot, Lowe's, McDonald's, and Lululemon making multi-year relative lows, and explains his long resources/short consumer-tech spread has generated 10% returns in six weeks. He argues many stocks are in a bubble not because of high PEs but because of unsustainable margins (using shipping stocks as an analogy), reveals consumer ETFs are actually 40% Mag 7, confirms his "death of financialization" thesis as bond markets discipline politicians, and explains why Kevin Warsh is stuck between a rock and hard place with limited policy tools as the buy-the-dip mentality dies.Links: George Noble's Best Income Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/X: https://x.com/gnoble79Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenobleTimestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Big picture macro update since February0:40 Reviewing previous predictions - Energy, bonds, AI trade3:32 Margin of safety particularly small right now5:30 Forward curve moving up - Market believing oil situation won't pass quickly6:02 Rising oil prices and bond yields - Not positive for risk assets8:40 Tech leadership unsustainable - Tremendous blow off top11:00 Buying semis on 8x book historically not a good idea12:26 Equal weight S&P underperforming - Broader market not doing well14:21 Long resources, short consumer and tech - 10% return spread17:03 Bond market move confirming death of financialization thesis19:52 Fed cutting rates against surging inflation and exploding deficits will backfire21:15 Bond market vigilantes being awakened23:38 Japan as canary in coal mine on debt problem25:33 Gold miners outstanding right now - Out of favor27:04 Regime shift happening - 60-40 model is dead29:36 Fed is not in control - They follow the market32:16 This is the golden age for stock picking34:21 AI trade - Biggest misallocation of capital in history of the world36:44 Many stocks in a bubble - Margins are the problem, not PEs38:37 Shipping stocks example - Bubble in earnings, not valuation40:20 Consumer is in recession42:06 Inflation permeating - Gold to energy to food43:28 Rates won't matter until they matter - Temperature analogy45:51 Kevin Warsh stuck between rock and hard place46:38 Margin of safety explained - Seth Klarman's wisdom50:11 Death of buy the dip mentality51:27 ETFs are not the answer - Do you know what's in your ETF?52:53 Golden age of stock picking - Active managers killing it now54:41 Shorting is a bad business - Just avoid garbage stocks56:50 Best Income Ideas Conference - May 20th59:05 Closing thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair and explains why this represents a dramatic shift from the progressive, statist Fed created by Mariner Eccles in the 1930s to a supply-side approach. Whalen reveals that Fed chairs have enormous unilateral power and predicts Warsh will reduce the balance sheet and reserves while trading off lower short-term rates, ending the regime where "every time the market hiccupped, the Fed ran in and dumped more reserves." He warns the 30-year bond topping 5% is just the beginning, with the long end potentially hitting 6% as Iran war impacts drive inflation to double digits by year end, possibly requiring rationing of key petroleum byproducts before the midterms. Whalen explains why silver is surging (Chinese tech demand, solid-state batteries, reduced mining) while discussing non-bank mortgage drama with United Wholesale Mortgage potentially becoming "the next Countrywide." He argues stocks will continue rising as inflation hedges, dismisses apocalyptic debt scenarios since the world needs dollars for trade, and predicts we'll need to get used to mortgages in the 6-7% range instead of 4-5% under higher-for-longer.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira845Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Introduction - Silver soars, Warsh confirmed, 30-year bond tops 5%0:32 Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair - What changes now?6:14 Market7:29 Banks bought back more stock than they made money9:00 30-year bond hits 5% for first time since 20089:56 Planning rationing strategies for key materials from petroleum11:04 Could get to double-digit inflation by end of year12:28 Long end of curve could get closer to 6% than 5%12:56 Trump meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing - How big of a deal?14:25 Dow hitting 50,000 - Blow off top or still runway?19:02 Silver surging - What's going on?21:03 The next Countrywide?24:29 End game with higher for longer under Warsh27:09 Viewer mail - National debt and market impact29:19 Will Warsh treat Iran war inflation as self-correcting?30:33 What Chris is watching next week/closing thoughts

Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for an in-person episode to discuss the frozen spring selling season and reveals disturbing signs of distress bubbling beneath the surface, including mortgage delinquencies rising at the exact time of year they should be falling. She exposes the "rage delisting" phenomenon where stubborn sellers refuse price cuts despite a massive inventory buildup, explains why the housing shortage narrative is a myth perpetuated by builders seeking a bailout, and warns that prime mortgages are now showing weakness for the first time. Melody argues that a 35-50% price correction is needed for median household income to afford median home prices, with the first wave of 10-12% likely over the next couple years. She reveals a massive shadow inventory wave from boomers that could add 20% more homes each year for the next decade, discusses how investors are fire selling (one investor dumping 300 rentals in a single market), and predicts the back half of 2026 could be "really ugly" as forbearance programs expire. Her advice: sellers should cut prices quickly to avoid cutting further, while buyers should stay patient because "the supply is coming."Links:YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melodyX: https://x.com/m3_melodySubstack: https://m3melody.substack.com/Timestamps0:00 Introduction - Melody Wright returns, spring selling season1:59 Housing market assessment - "Take three of another year frozen"5:28 Distress bubbling under the surface8:15 Why the shortage narrative is so pervasive11:46 Tracking 86 markets now 15:05 Most worrisome areas - The delusional northeast16:11 Boomer stubbornness and shadow inventory wave16:38 How big is the shadow inventory? 20% increase for next 10 years18:22 How far do prices need to correct? 35% to 50%20:42 Warning signals24:25 Most important thing overlooked27:36 Base case - 35% to 50% correction over significant time28:46 Spring season warning 29:54 Back half of year could be really ugly30:17 Shortage of affordable homes because they're mispriced30:58 Advice for sellers - Get real appraisal, cut quickly32:36 Advice for buyers - Stay stubborn, wait for math to work33:04 How does this feel different from 2008?36:45 Who's buying now if institutionals are fire selling?37:57 Parting words - Patience for buyers, supply is coming 

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 368 to warn that the three asset bubbles in stocks, credit, and real estate continue growing to unprecedented levels, with total market cap now at 230% of GDP versus a 90% average. He reveals that Powell has quietly printed $170 billion since December in an undeclared QE program, calls Powell's tenure "horrific," and celebrates his departure. Pento explains he's "nervously long" the market using his five-sector inflation-deflation model, currently positioned for stagflation with commodities, precious metals, and energy. He warns that credit markets will fracture first, with private credit now at $2 trillion (bigger than the $1.3 trillion subprime market in 2008), and predicts June redemptions could trigger a death spiral. Pento believes we need a 50% market correction to return to normalcy, warns we could see 15% interest rates like the 1980s but with a far worse debt backdrop, and argues the bottom 80% of Americans are already living in depression-like conditions while crony capitalism enriches the top 20%. He sees two paths forward: voluntary asset price reconciliation or forced hyperinflation leading to currency reset.Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento0:00 Introduction - Michael Pento returns after 6 months0:59 Big picture macro view - Bubbles grow bigger2:19 Powell's "horrific tenure" - $4.5 trillion printed3:32 QE program continues - $170 billion since December4:39 Kevin Warsh-led Fed - What changes are coming?5:52 Warsh will punish Wall Street, boost Main Street7:06 Stock bubble metrics - 230% of GDP (average is 90%)8:24 Crony capitalism vs. free market economics9:10 Why capitalism gets a bad name10:01 Home price to income ratio at all-time highs11:01 Disconnect between stock market highs and consumer sentiment lows11:35 Only top 20% doing well - The "i-shaped economy"12:33 AI spending reminds Michael of 1999 tech bubble13:33 Are you confident Kevin Warsh can get us back to normalcy?14:41 What would normal market valuations look like?15:06 Would need 50% correction to return to normal17:05 Wouldn't printing just set us up for more problems?18:57 Either scenario leads to higher rates19:37 Implications of double-digit rates on everything20:38 Are you still nervously long the market?21:19 Michael's not a perma bear - History of market crashes23:02 How dangerous can this bubble be when it bursts?24:03 Michael's 5-sector inflation-deflation model25:14 Precious metals trade - Why only 6% position26:41 Energy thesis - After Iran war27:30 Explaining the 5 sectors - Which is most worrisome?28:25 Stagflation is the base case going forward29:01 Post-recession: $6 trillion deficits, $12 trillion Fed balance sheet29:55 Could we see 15% interest rates like 1980?31:17 What's the end game here?33:21 Are we past the point of no return?34:58 Which bubble bursts first - The epicenter?35:44 Watch credit markets first - Private credit warning36:46 June redemptions could trigger death spiral37:47 Is private credit too big to fail now?38:21 Risk not getting attention - Pressure on middle class40:00 Buy now pay later defaults surging40:29 Bottom 80% living in depression conditions41:18 Preventing tremors creates epic shocks42:48 Has anyone talked about $170 billion of QE since December?43:24 What makes Michael hopeful for the future44:01 Closing thoughts

Warsh's arrival at the Fed actually means in practice — significant personnel changes, new models, and what Chris calls nothing short of an "earthquake at the central bank." Chris explains why there will be no rate cuts for a while, why the Fed balance sheet is growing again despite Warsh wanting to shrink it, and the one-to-one relationship between the balance sheet and public debt that most people aren't talking about. Plus: silver is in physical shortage and can't be delivered in parts of Asia, private credit is getting quiet as the bad headlines pile up, AMD is Chris's AI play of choice, and why the Iran war means "traumatic shortages by June" even if a deal were struck tomorrow. Chris also answers viewer questions on Warsh shrinking the balance sheet, gold under a tightening regime, the PennyMac LIBOR lawsuit, and Annaly Capital earnings. And Julia closes on her first house. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira842Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Welcome & intro 0:49 Fed balance sheet growing again even though Warsh wants to shrink it 1:08 The one-to-one relationship between the Fed balance sheet and public debt 3:28 Will we continue to see a more inflationary environment? 3:37 Silver on a tear — physical shortage, can't deliver the metal 4:41 Still money pouring into private credit 8:32 Too many dollars chasing too few returns — what this means for markets 11:10 Are we setting up for a longer term risk? 12:13 GameStop CEO's bid for eBay — what does Chris make of it? 14:08 Changing the models, retiring staff — "an earthquake at the central bank" 16:32 "No rate cuts for a while" — Warsh has to establish rapport first 19:25 Iran hostilities dragging on — how much longer is this a major risk?the year 23:02 Adding to gold positions — "the selloff was a gift" 25:36 Mortgage sector — rates up, companies waiting for cuts that aren't coming 26:16 Banks not attractive right now — what would make them more attractive? 27:30 Viewer Q — How could Warsh shrink the Fed balance sheet? 27:56 Scarce reserve regime — T-bills, discount window, can he get it done?29:02 Viewer Q — Is gold a good investment under a tightening regime? 29:52 Viewer Q — PennyMac lawsuit over LIBOR/SOFR transition 31:31 Viewer Q — Annaly Capital earnings — "good earnings, beat expectations" 32:13 What is Chris watching next week? 33:17 GoldCo sponsor — goldco.com/thewrap — 855-573-0817

Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 366 to break down what he calls the most important and overlooked structural shift in financial history — the rise of passive investing. Green argues that the market isn't broken in the way most people think: it's not fraud or irrational exuberance, it's the mechanical consequence of a regulatory change in 2006 that turned 401k contributions into an automatic, valuation-blind buying machine. With passive now at 55% of the market — and rising 4% per year — Green shares new research showing that somewhere between 65% and 80%, a 1987-style crash stops being a possibility and becomes nearly inevitable. He also connects the dots between our retirement system, the housing crisis, and why both boomers and millennials are scared — just for completely different reasons.Links:Follow Mike on X: https://twitter.com/profplum99Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/Timestamps00:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green1:04 - What "broken markets" actually means today 2:40 - The Costanza market and how Mike's research began 6:21 - Passive went from 2% to 55% of the market since 1992 7:05 - Why passive investing is just momentum with no valuation filter 9:45 - The 2006 Pension Protection Act — the legislation nobody talks about 10:13 - Why Vanguard and Bogle aren't the ones to blame 10:19 - The book: The Greatest Story Ever Sold 10:39 - The academic paper that forced Mike to rewrite the book 13:59 - Type A vs Type B savers — and the snow cone moment 14:35 - Prices don't move because of information. They move because of flows. 15:08 - The threshold: 65–80% passive and the market becomes unstable16:07 - Why the coming crash could be worse than 1987 19:37 - The XIV collapse — and what it taught Mike about predicting crashes 22:00 - Is there a disconnect between markets and the economy right now? 22:19 - Nvidia's margins, vendor financing, and the Cisco parallel 24:10 - The S&P could be worth less than 2,000 on a pure DCF basis 25:29 - Pushing back on the "we've never been better off" narrative 27:21 - The valley of death and the precarity line 28:36 - Why demographics are at the center of everything 29:29 - Why boomers are terrified too — and why that matters for younger people 31:14 - The housing trap: boomers won't sell, millennials can't buy 34:21 - What does all this say about the social fabric? 35:18 - "Tax wealth, not work" — the tax code we had in the 1950s 36:41 - Why a wealth tax is actually the wrong solution 38:11 - Wrap up

Veteran natural resource investor Rick Rule, CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to break down a rapidly deteriorating macro picture, warning that oil markets are currently pricing in anticipation of a shortage — not the shortage itself — and that the next seven to ten days could be a watershed moment if the Gulf conflict doesn't de-escalate. He explains why gold may moderate near term despite the chaos (strong dollar, rising yields), but remains convicted it will preserve purchasing power over the next decade as the US dollar loses 75% of its purchasing power. Rick also flags uranium and nuclear power as the clearest long-term beneficiary of the energy crisis, updates his silver miner trade (up ~21%), and sounds the alarm on a potential credit crunch in private and junk bond markets that few are talking about.00:00 — Introduction00:43 — Oil crisis: why prices are "anticipatory" & what happens in 7–10 days06:07 — The truth about gold & fear (it's not what you think)08:03 — Long bonds breach 5% — what that means for you11:31 — How to protect yourself: liquidity, gold & balance sheets15:36 — Gold at $4,800 & the silver miner trade update19:35 — Oil above $100 and what it signals about the global economy22:47 — Why the next 7–10 days are critical27:28 — The biggest unsung winner of this war: uranium & nuclear31:07 — How to actually invest in uranium (names & tickers)32:53 — Near-term bleak, long-term better — Rick's full outlook34:05 — Why is the stock market hitting new highs during a war?37:06 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: hawk or not?38:54 — Where we are in the commodity super cycle41:44 — Battle Bank update + Symposium + free portfolio ranking offer

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what he calls one of the most significant weeks in Fed history — Powell's final press conference as chairman, his decision to stay on as a Fed governor to block Trump from a second appointment, and what it means for Kevin Warsh walking into a hostile committee with the most dissenting votes since 1992. Chris explains why the Fed has been "the key engine of progressive socialism in Washington" since 1935, what a Warsh-led Fed actually looks like in practice, and why the Trump White House missed a political layup by not hanging "the burning tire of home price affordability" around Powell's neck. Plus: why sulfur — not oil — is the one word that sums up the biggest threat to the global economy right now, what China's sulfuric acid export ban means for copper, silver, and inflation, and why distressed real estate is "the next trade."Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira840Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Welcome & intro — what a week it was 2:05 Powell staying as fed governor 5:08 Warsh — "a hawk on inflation but a supply sider" 7:15 Powell's warning about regional Fed presidents8:10 What can we expect from a Warsh-led Fed?11:30 "The burning tire they should have hung around Powell's neck" 12:25 "What would be the message?" — Chris on political messaging and affordability14:44 What change is Chris most looking forward to at the Fed?16:41 Inflation is accelerating17:28 Sulfur — the one word that sums up the global economic threat20:17 What is Chris doing with his precious metals right now?21:17 US equity markets hitting record highs — what does Chris make of it? 24:30 Distressed real estate is "the next trade" 29:40 One year anniversary of Inflated — reflection and what's come to fruition 34:32 What is Chris watching next week?

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, explains why she's "less fed up" despite disagreeing with Fed policy - praising Jerome Powell's decision to stay on as governor to protect Fed independence, drawing parallels to Marriner Eccles' 1948 stand against President Truman. Danielle calls Powell's move "patriotic" while warning we're "flirting with a liquidity crisis" as non-banks have become "too big to fail." She discusses the challenges Kevin Warsh will face as incoming chair, argues the Fed has failed its employment mandate, and explains how the economy cannot withstand persistently high oil prices and interest rates simultaneously.Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Fed day with Danielle DiMartino Booth0:32 Powell's last time at the podium - Takeaways1:48 The Eccles parallel - Fed independence fight in 19482:39 Why Danielle is "less fed up" today2:57 The Powell move - Staying on as governor4:20 Risk of being perceived as shadow Fed chair?5:39 Triple hawkish dissent 6:16 Unprecedented dissent levels - Early resistance signs?7:57 Powell's legacy and how it changed today9:22 The Eccles legacy - Established as governor, not chair10:27 Powell's move was "patriotic" - Protecting Fed independence11:27 What is your read on Kevin Warsh?12:48 Liquidity crises take precedence - The Mike Tyson test13:40 0% chance of rate cut - Should they have cut?14:47 Fed has failed its employment mandate16:48 Oil prices and disinflationary demand destruction17:17 Bankruptcies accelerating, layoffs increasing18:01 Home prices falling - Thinking about inflation wrong19:16 The valley of death at $100k income level19:32 Higher for longer means more pain20:34 How does building consensus at the Fed work?22:04 Flirting with a liquidity crisis - How big is the risk?22:38 Pummeling the housing market23:26 More sellers than buyers - Biggest disconnect ever24:09 Investment boom or panic stockpiling ahead of tariffs?25:27 Economy can't withstand high oil and high rates28:07 Base case for rest of 2026 - Fed cuts30:43 If you could advise Kevin Warsh, what would you say?32:17 Bloomberg chat - hot takes with institutional investors33:34 What's keeping you up at night and making you hopeful?35:37 Non-banks now too big to fail37:06 Systemic risk from non-banking system37:25 Mother's Day tribute - Legacy and three graduating kids38:03 Closing thoughts