The Market Call

This week Jeremy & Gareth comment on the Middle East situation, its potentially huge and long-term impact on supply chains but also the ability of humanity to reinvent and rearrange very quickly.Jeremy suggests that the equity market's buoyancy is partly a short-squeeze on Mag 7 as AI spend continues to reach new frenzied highs, and asset managers want "safe" US Dollar assets. The US may have started this war, but their assets and their energy are largely safe from its immediate effects.Meanwhile Kevin Warsh is suggesting a new - and more nuanced - approach to Central Bank structures...lower interest rates for sure, but with a dose of academic justification.  Playing to the crowd, perhaps...persuading the bond markets, hard to tell. 

This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the only thing that matters - the "cardiac event" threatening the world's circulatory system for its oil lifeblood.Echoes of Suez reverberate - and the "petrodollar" arrangements of arms sales and protection look thoroughly undermined.  Jeremy points out that this feels like "hypernormalisation"....everyone knows that the world order is changing, but is afraid to say it out loud. China may be the silent victor, but Japan's financial position and/or the bond markets could pose the real risk to markets.Investors might do well to look to real-world assets, especially if energy exploration is about to become important once again.Latin America could benefit from a more hinterland-focussed USA.  Good luck to the soon-incoming Fed Chairman....what a time to be Kevin Warsh.

Jeremy and Gareth discuss the ongoing challenges emanating from the Middle East. Unlike last year's tariff news, where the Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) trade often won out, it takes two to TACO in a war like this - and Iran so far is not helping.Markets have been stung, although the US Dollar is once again the "safe haven" asset, making the inflationary impact worse for non-USA countries.  Those inflationary risks abound, and the independence of central banks in this critical period will once again be an issue.Equity markets appear to be less worried than bond investors, although this could change, depending crucially on how long the current impasse persists in the all-important Strait of Hormuz.When the oil price is more volatile than bitcoin, you know we're in interesting times... 

This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the obvious (and only) story that really matters - the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.  What is obvious is that America's "complete control of the airspace" has not resulted in reopening the Strait of Hormuz - small Iranian missiles and drones remain a problem.  Less obvious is that America's "no limits on availability of munitions" presumably leaves Ukraine's supply at risk, and Taiwan less protected.  Oil prices are up by 25-30%, and inflation will follow unless this is very short-lived.  Bond yields are rising globally.  A regime-changed Iran (with free-flowing cheap oil for the world) would be a wonderful outcome, but is currently very far from assured. Jeremy explains the importance of Kharg Island...let's hope it stays out of the headlines. 

The Market Call returns to analyse market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and the impact of the Trump administration on the global economy and markets. Jeremy and Gareth explore U.S. GDP hitting 4.4%, and a historic precious metals boom with gold nearing $5,000 and silver approaching $100 an ounce. Discover key insights on the U.S. real economy, bond yields, and six critical investment themes for the year ahead, including the Space Economy, Robotics, and the "Great Rotation" of capital. Key Topics & Highlights:Geopolitics & Trump 2.0: Analysis of the Trump administration's aggressive stances toward NATO and Europe, and its impact on global relations.Market Volatility: How the "Davos circus" and recent fears have driven investors into a risk-off mode, with strategies for navigating the uncertainty.The Commodities Boom: Discussion on the dramatic ascent of precious metals, driven by a weakening dollar and rising geopolitical insurance premiums.The Inflation vs. Growth Debate: An exploration of a hot U.S. economy (near 5% growth) versus moderating Western consumer price inflation, and its bond market implications.Six Themes for ’26: A breakdown of top investment themes for the year:Robotics and Autonomous Driving.The Space Economy.The Rise of the Chinese Consumer.Healthcare Catch-up.Energy will join the Commodities Party.The Ongoing "Great Rotation" (Capital moving from Dollar assets/Treasuries to gold and other geographies). Never any kind of advice, for information purposes only. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. Don't forget to subscribe and leave a review to help us reach more investors navigating the 2026 markets!

In the last episode of 2025, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the significant events of the week, including volatile equities, what precious metals prices are telling us, and the ups and downs of oil prices, with the US Navy on patrol offshore of Venezuela.  There has been a data dump of macro numbers and rate decisions, and an important decision by Europe's leaders not to seize frozen Russian assets. Overall, the critical question for investors in 2026 is whether central banks have done enough to tame inflation and pave the way for lower rates. Jeremy again highlights Japan as a source of risk to the bullish scenario. Next week will be quiet, but always worth noting who might be sneaking out RNS's last thing on Christmas Eve. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

Jeremy and Gareth discuss the main events of the last week in financial markets. The primary focus is on the mixed messaging from the Federal Reserve with its interest rate decision described as a hawkish cut. Jeremy describes how we might interpret this move, which is now signalling only one further rate cut in 2026. Kevin "The Real Asset" Hassett is widely expected to be announced as Jay Powell's successor in January. Further, this has also been widely interpreted as allowing inflation expectations to run wild, thereby impacting the prices of gold and silver.   However, the Fed decision makers are also looking at their responsibilities for employment and the functioning of financial markets. To this end, you might be mistaken that they have restarted QE. The move to inject liquidity into the short-term money markets might not be strictly QE, but it does expand the Fed's balance sheet, at least in the short term.Jeremy points to Japan as the source of the market dysfunction that policymakers might be preempting via this (temporary) injection. In US megacap land, news comes of a $1.5 trillion IPO for SpaceX, and a busy week for the Ellison family. Larry Ellison's Oracle highlighted the risks around the AI data centre build-out, but also his son and other high-profile backers were behind the $108bn hostile bid for Warner Bros. Jeremy highlights the precedent for such giant hostile bids, and it is an interesting list! Surely nothing to see here. Looking ahead, there will be further evidence next week of the weakening US jobs market.The events in Venezuela and the Ukraine peace process will also be centre stage. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.       

This week Jeremy and Gareth discuss mainly the apparent confusion of bitcoin falling while other “inflation hedge” or “real asset” measures like gold and silver are at or close to all-time highs.  Jeremy has four or five reasons why this might be the case - all of which highlight the usefulness of bitcoin’s “always on” trading 24/7 as a barometer or investor opinion.Macro markets have helped Rachel Reeves avoid short-term repercussions of the Budget. Next week’s Fed rate decision may be overshadowed by gyrations around the potential seizure of Russian monies - and what that means for the value of the dollar in the eyes of anyone who might one day upset the West. 

As Americans took a break to overindulge on Thanksgiving, we Brits were forced to listen to our government explain how they had overindulged recently and how we must now pay for it.  This week, Dowgate's three wise men mansplain the Budget and its implications.  Jeremy and Gareth are joined by Progressive building and construction analyst and Property Week columnist, Alastair Stewart, to offer his views on the likely impact on the UK housing and housebuilding markets following Rachel Reeves' second Budget. Spoiler alert, he's bullish. Looking ahead, Jeremy expects an easing of financial conditions from the US as, among other things, the White House considers ways to improve the Republicans' chances in next year's Congressional midterms. Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

This week Jeremy and Gareth start by talking about the market changing its mind twice, and quite materially.  The positive reaction to the US government's reopening was shortlived, as was the delight at NVIDIA's blowout earnings on Wednesday.  In both cases, prices were boosted by good news, only to drift - in NVIDIA's case by 8% top-to-bottom in the course of just a day.  Markets always move, but these are huge deltas on some very large amounts of capital.  Lots of things are overlapping so discerning worries about AI from worries about the economic outlook is almost impossible.  Our traditional reminder to keep one eye on Japan, where 10-year bond yields are soaring and the currency dropping...beware the carry trade unwinding with a bump.  In the UK, we're all waiting to see which of the many-mooted taxes will be inflicted on us - the chances of a real surprise look pretty small.  Progressive client Gear4Music delivered a strong H1 result, perhaps demonstrating the resilience and operational gearing that we've been discussing may be a feature of a large number of UK micro-caps.  They have weathered Brexit, Covid, supply chain pressure and now consumer pain - with costs kept lean and strong operational efficiency, any recovery will flow straight to the bottom line - which is exactly what G4M has demonstrated. Next week we have US retail sales and durable goods data, and FOMC members with a number of speeches in the diary.  Confusion and contradiction remain, as the US economy sees Wall Street (mainly the Magnificent 7) whose AI and capex-fuelled world is growing rapidly, contrast sharply with Main Street where the average American is feeling real pain.  Should interest rates be set to rein in tech-bro exuberance and gently deflate a potential bubble, or to give some cost-of-living relief to the down-trodden masses ? 

Jeremy and Gareth discuss the week's events, with a greater focus on the UK, following the Reeves bombshell overnight that she has pivoted away from her previous indication that she would raise income tax for the first time in 50 years at the upcoming Budget on November 26th. This suggestion across most front pages today has thrown the gilts and the value of the pound into some turmoil. Meanwhile, in the US, the government is reopening, but to the realisation that continuing to borrow without spending has exacerbated tight dollar liquidity, as evidenced by the sharp fall in Bitcoin.   We are entering a more volatile market phase amid the absence of official US government data on October's employment and inflation. Essentially, investors must fly blind through a period of stormy weather. What could go wrong?In the UK equity market, despite the politics, things are looking incrementally better, with the IPO market showing signs of fully opening up. Gareth highlights FDM and Jeremy 4imprint as examples of how to cope with difficult times and manage expectations. Both companies had inline or marginal upgrades, and their share prices responded strongly. Looking ahead, with the US remaining quiet, it's about inflation data from the UK and Japan, both high and sticky, and increasingly problematic. Investors in the UK will be on the latest developments from the rumour mill at No. 11. In the US, investors will be looking for unofficial signs that the authorities might be prepared to loosen conditions to ease the impact of the shutdown. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.   

This week Jeremy and Gareth discuss a relatively calm week in the markets - China and the USA have reached a deal of sorts, the USD is slightly stronger but not so strong as to cause trouble elsewhere.  The Fed is confused (and will be careful, likely meaning rates staying higher) because America remains in Federal shutdown and data is scarce.  Still, US equity markets remain robust, and Elon Musk is rejoicing at his trillion-dollar deal. The UK, however, is still quaking at the impending budget, with so many possible taxes discussed that they can't all be needed...there may even be relief once the bad news is out.  Trainline's results looked solid, but Tim Martin at Wetherspoon used a trading update as a platform to berate the government on everything from corporate regulation to nuclear power.Next week - and perhaps many weeks to come - will see the US Supreme Court deliberate the legality of Trump's tariffs...so this week's lack of fireworks may be a postponement rather than a cancellation.  What will happen when Liberation Day meets its own Judgement Day...? 

Jeremy and Gareth discussed the week's main market news, starting with the historic meeting between Trump and Xi, and praised Treasury Secretary Bessent for his role in positioning the market. The Fed FOMC delivered a hawkish rate cut, which sent markets higher; however, things might get more uncertain as the US government shutdown starts to affect the collection of macroeconomic data for future releases.  They also discuss the improved prospects for Javier Milei to deliver his small-state solution in Argentina, following a surprisingly positive congressional midterm election result.  Meanwhile, the Mag Seven US mega tech companies continue their remarkable rise, with Nvidia still the clear winner. And the primary constraint on these tech titans' ambitions is reliable baseload energy, so it was unsurprising that Bill Gates and the UK government are signalling a retreat from specific net-zero policies and targets.   Finally, the backdrop and outlook for the UK's stock market is looking and feeling more positive than perhaps was feared only a few weeks ago, ahead of next month's Budget. A string of IPOs and anecdotal evidence, including the update from broker Cavendish, suggests we could have a better run into year-end after the Budget is out of the way. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the fragile peace in hot wars and trade wars.There is a sense of finality about Trump's latest attempts to get Putin and Zelensky to agree on ceasefire terms. Trump is losing patience with both parties. The choice of Budapest as the location for Trump and Putin's meeting was no coincidence. Meanwhile, Trump's on-and-off talks with Xi seem to be on again. The prospect of an emergent Grand Bargain remains on the table, giving equity markets hope.Asset markets saw a significant rotation on Tuesday, with a dramatic collapse in precious metals prices and a spike in bond prices, leading to a decline in key sovereign yields. Helpful for both Rachel Reeves and Scott Bessent.   However, it remains unclear if this is just a short-term price correction in gold or a longer-term structural shift. Should investors, still fearful of the pending fiat collapse, buy the dip in precious metals?   Similarly, one needs to ask why bond yields are falling. Jeremy doesn't think there is any reassessment of governments' fiscal responsibility, but rather that it reflects worries about slowing economies or worsening credit quality in private markets.Regarding the ongoing debate on the AI bubble, they discuss whether former UK deputy PM Nick Clegg can add any value to the issue. What do you think? Looking ahead, Jeremy covers imminent US and Japanese inflation data and also notes the prospect for updates from the Mag Seven NASDAQ giants over the coming few weeks. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.     

This week, Jeremy and Gareth consider Trump's quick switch from declaring peace in the Middle East to opening a (new) trade war with China - which has almost as quickly subsided, with the Trump/Xi meeting now "back on".  Jeremy highlights the ongoing strength of gold - FOMO bubble or long-term trend driven by debasement of currencies ?  And the great rewards of being a gold miner - with unparalleled revenue per ounce, and costs of drilling and transport (often oil-based) in decline.   Bitcoin hasn't participated in the recent gold rally - although over a longer timeframe than the last few months, it has hugely outperformed.  Perhaps both can be safe havens in a world of unaffordable government debt and spiralling-down currencies ?  Meanwhile equity markets have been relatively stable, although slightly spooked by the current pressure on US lenders, driven by greater-than-apparent losses flowing from a number of insolvencies that shouldn't have rippled the way they have.  Gareth talks about Gear4Music, Sanderson Design Group and Oxford Metrics, all of which this week have highlighted decent trading (or better) along with the benefit of much cost-control, in each case well received by investors.   Next week we have Chinese growth data and UK inflation which could exceed 4% for the first time in over a year.  The end of the week will bring US inflation (they're still publishing despite the government shutdown) - anything much above 3.0% will both rattle markets and possibly cost someone at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics their job.  Finally, don't forget Japan...Friday also brings their latest inflation print; as always we better hope there's nothing too surprising. 

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the highlights of the last week in financial markets.Gold (and other precious metals) move to all-time highs, representing a foot on the brake. What are they worried about? Well, there are emerging risks around credit conditions in private markets and increasing concerns that the AI capex cycle is turning into a fully fledged bubble, one that Jeff Bezos, no less, called a good bubble. Jeremy mentioned the under-reported British Bicycle Bubble of the 1890s. See link for details: https://www.historyhit.com/the-great-british-bicycle-bubble-of-1896/ Trump, the peacemaker, is making progress in the Middle East, but not in time to win this year's Nobel Peace Prize. However, the consequences for any deal could involve much lower oil prices and maybe a disruption to the ascent of precious metals prices.   Gareth discusses the UK car loan mis-selling update from the FCA, its impact on Vertu Motors and Secure Trust, and this week's results from Beeks Financial Cloud.Looking forward, the macro news includes trade and inflation data from China, as well as employment and GDP data from the UK. With the US government shut down, there are question marks over what to expect from the US market or whether the inflation data on October 15th will even be released.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.    

After a short break, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the current state of markets as we head into Q4 of 2025. Jeremy suggests that the US recession has been cancelled, and while the music is playing, equity investors feel compelled to dance. Over Q3, the $ has stabilised and the £ has weakened. The US is "boom baby boom", while the UK is flatlining with no economic growth and a long wait for the Budget on November 26th.  The primary driver of growth in the US is a vast circular investment pattern in AI data centres. With increasing political pressure, the Fed is being compelled to initiate a rate-cutting cycle. However, AI might be a world-changing technological revolution, but as the dot-com bubble showed us, it can also be a financial bubble.  In a week that Open-AI was valued at $500bn Gareth talks about the similarities to the early 2000s. To complete the bearish take, there are also some early signs of stress in the US credit sector, which some compare to the early stages of the GFC.   Gareth covers updates from some UK companies, including Pharos Energy, Watkin Jones, and Xaar, that continue to show resilient performance. Finally, there are signs of life in the IPO market as Beauty Tech begins life as a new £300m market cap company, which might be the first of several new issues on their way to the London market in the coming months. Looking forward, the US government shutdown has put the production of economic data in doubt, with the inflation numbers for October 15th also in question. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the key factors that have impacted financial markets over the past week and take a look ahead to what lies ahead for investors. Bond markets got the yips over talks of IMF visits for France and the UK. However, no one informed the FX market, and the value of the £ remained solid, helped in part by the weakening of the $. However, it's all relative, and the real value of things is reflected in gold and other real assets.US labour markets showed more signs of weakness, but with persistent inflation. US tech giants continue to dominate, but with little scrutiny of the returns that their substantial AI capital expenditures might yield. Oracle was in the spotlight this week, with some extraordinary results, launching its founder back into the top spot on the world's richest person leader board.  Despite our volatile politics, UK equities remain in demand, and risk assets more broadly remain in good fettle.The long wait for the UK Budget might be because they are working on a cunning plan for growth, or they are simply waiting for things to improve. Of course, both could be true. Either way is a frustrating wait. Meanwhile, the results and updates offer a mixed bag, indicating that the UK consumer remains active.  Jeremy offers a view on Treatt's fall from grace and its Board's disappointing acceptance of the modestly pitched PE offer the company received this week. Looking ahead, the main focus will be on the Fed's rate decision, where the overwhelming expectation is for a 25 bps cut to 4.25%. But most people will be more interested in President Trump's second state visit to the UK, which begins on Tuesday. Shhh, nobody mention Jeffrey Epstein. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.    

This week, Jeremy and Gareth debate Trump's ongoing attacks on the US Fed...perhaps Powell is rolling over, but the recently "sacked" board member Lisa Cook is not.  The dollar fell and long bond yields rose, but not by much.  France is showing renewed (and traditional) political risk, and the landscape across Europe feels pressured.  The UK is once again facing an Autumn of Worry as the budget's tax-more-or-spend-less balancing act seems destined to repeat last year's wheel of fortune on which part of the economy will bear the brunt of new taxes.  In the absence of much small-cap news, the pair consider the misfortunes of Drax, the former coal-fired power generation group, now reinvented doing the "green thing" of burning wood pellets to produce electricity.  This week saw news that the FCA is investigating the veracity of some of the their historic claims around the source of these pellets (Drax claims they're mainly "off-cuts" of wood that's already being logged).  Whether or not there's an issue, it is possible that the attention might focus minds on the genuine green credentials of shipping wood across the Atlantic to burn it, and then claiming that by capturing the carbon released and then burying it, the whole process is "carbon negative".  More broadly, some governments are actively against the renewables agenda, and others actively can't afford it.  Next week we get the excitement of US jobs data - Trump wants data weak enough to prompt a big interest rate cut, but not weak enough to look like a recession. Whoever's in charge of "deciding" the number better tread a careful line, or they might join the jobless stats for the following months. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

This week has been relatively quiet. Gareth and Jeremy discuss the prospects for peace in Europe, the not quite so bad news, but still not good news, about the UK economy and our public finances.UK inflation and the long end of the gilt market both look like they might be getting out of control. UK inflation has now been above target for 49 out of the last 51 reports. Not conventionally a scenario in which to cut rates, unless, of course, it is transitory.   Jeremy talks about the significance of Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole later today (3 pm UK time) and asks whether he is prepared to die on the hill of inflation and central bank independence. Gareth then highlights the dramatic warning and share price reaction from WHSmith this week and its potential implications.Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

In their usual weekly chat, Jeremy and Gareth cover the macro market news and events with a few thoughts on what it all means.While the UK reporting season is a bit dull, the US Q2 reports have been more positive. There is a long wait for the Autumn Budget in the UK, and many companies are likely to face a long wait for the inevitable tax increases. Lots of comments out there about gambling taxes, IHT and maybe VAT increases. Overall, the UK economic news this week has been poor but not calamitous.Equity markets are moving to all-time highs, with powerful rallies seen from the early April lows, particularly in the US.  Maybe investors are looking ahead to a period of policy easing. However, in bond markets, the message is more mixed. Will the Fed cut rates next month? A stronger-than-expected US PPI print for July indicates that tariff-induced inflation might be on the way, giving Powell a reason, or excuse, to keep rates on hold.  There is a setup for a big showdown between the White House and the Fed. If Powell is focused on his legacy, then he might want to go out as the man who stood up to Trump and defended the economy from inflation, as Paul Volcker rather than Arthur Burns. Gareth covers the updates from Xaar and Zoo Digital. Jeremy highlights the warning from Shoe Zone and suggests the shares might have overreacted to the news. Almost certainly meaning there is worse to come!   Looking ahead, next week, there is UK inflation data, which might increase to 4%. So, it's not the typical environment in which to cut rates.  We also have Japan's inflation data, which is expected to remain at a tricky 3.3%. The main event is likely to be the outcome of the talks in Alaska. Will Trump and Putin move the lines on the map of Europe?  Brought to you by Progressive Equity.               

Gareth and Jeremy discuss macroeconomic developments and how they might impact financial markets. Plenty of noise around tariffs still, and still difficult to determine any signal. Meanwhile, the Fed and the BoE have both had contentious rate-setting meetings, highlighting the unprecedented way in which like-minded policymakers have differing views about the future path of monetary policy. Jeremy questions whether we are seeing the end of the era of central bank global orthodoxy. There will be much chat at Jackson Hole about the existential threats to central bank independence and their ability to operate under the auspices of their increasingly fiscally challenged political masters. Meanwhile, US company reporting is more positive than the newsflow from the UK, although equity markets are grinding higher on stronger capital flows.On this point, Gareth mentions the divergent fortunes of Sanderson Design, which updated this week, in the US and the UK.Looking ahead, we can expect a UK unemployment report, which is not likely to be encouraging for Rachel Reeves; US inflation data that is likely to confirm an ongoing rise in the core measure; and a UK Q2 GDP print, again, which might signal bad news for Rachel. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.     

This week, Jeremy and Gareth talk Turnberry and trade deals - with a backdrop of some tech titans' Q2 earnings reports with such strong results that "American Exceptionalism" seems as strong as ever.  The anticipated dispersion of capital to other venues will have to wait, as AI spend dominates and American giants are mainly the beneficiaries.  The US FOMC decision (to leave rates unchanged) allowed Jay Powell to highlight that the credibility of the Fed relies on his ability to not bow to political pressure - highlighting that risks lie in both directions.  Jeremy's comment is that reduced rates could let the genie out of the bottle, with inflation expectations significantly heightened and permanently elevated. If the US is run like an emerging market, it could well end up with emerging market inflation - and interest rates - with major implications for all of us.  Meanwhile, Scott Bessant is looking to stablecoin mechanisms and untapped bank liquidity/leverage to help plug the gap in demand for US treasuries...  Next month sees the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers - but next week we have the UK MPC interest rate decision.  Markets are expecting a 25 basis point cut - but Jeremy cautions that the UK doesn't often like to jump the gun on rate moves, so the US "hold" this week might spell trouble for those expectations.  Gareth talks about Progressive clients STV, IG Design Group, Forterra and SDI Group, and Jeremy highlights the strength of the UK market, buoyed partly by bid activity - with £3bn of incoming capital for IPF and Just Group, both of which saw takeover announcements. Looking to the next week, US non-farm payroll data will show how the economy is coping with both tariff impacts and the changed migration dynamics in the US job market.  US PMI and UK rate decisions are due next week, but the main event is still likely to be Trump-related, whether and how much he provokes genuine and material trade wars with China, Canada, Mexico, Brazil...or others !  Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Jeremy & Gareth, having skipped a week, cover the macro news of the last fortnight. Trump's new tariff "magic money tree" has encouraged him to ramp up the rhetoric on tariffs. Critically, the inflationary impact of higher tariffs is now coming into focus, impacting the growing feud between the White House and the Federal Reserve.  Japan has struck a deal with the US, but the EU and China are awaiting their turn. Both of these larger trading partners present difficulties that the market seems relatively sanguine about. The risk that China plays hardball has been all but discounted. Macro data shows that inflation remains elevated in both the US and the UK. The UK labour market has softened over the past eight months as the economy faces rising taxes in the Budget and the government deals with higher-than-expected borrowing.  EY has reported on the highest level of UK profit warnings in 25 years. Several businesses, such as Treatt and Judges, have warned due to exposure to the US market and the weaker dollar. The UK market, meanwhile, continues to move higher, which appears to be more a result of capital flows than fundamentals. Gareth discusses recent results from Van Elle and Severfield in the construction space. Looking ahead, it is jobs week in the US, which should indicate a further slowing in the labour market. Additionally, the Fed Chair's press conference should be worth watching, even though no one is expecting any movement in rates. We also receive the BoJ rate decision, which, as ever, can send shockwaves through the rest of the world's financial markets. Let's see.   Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss how an emboldened Trump has raised the tariff temperature while also considering the potential for a version of the future to be one of US economic growth. But whatever the path forward, Paul Tudor Jones' mantra, that all roads lead to inflation, seems increasingly appropriate. Risk assets continue their march higher with Nvidia and Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. Nvidia is the first company to be valued at over $4 trillion.  In the UK, Gareth talks about housebuilder Springfield and merchanting business Lords Trading as prime examples of UK small-cap companies executing well on sensible capital allocation policies. Looking ahead, it is mainly about inflation with data releases in the US, the UK and Japan. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Jeremy and Gareth discuss the week's macro market news and developments, comparing the plight of the Trump and Starmer administrations, which are six months and a year in, respectively. The differing outcomes, at least in part, reflect the degree to which the bond markets constrain the UK government more than the US. We are halfway through 2025 and have had a turbulent Q2. Equity markets are recovering everywhere, but persistent dollar weakness has made the US seem less exceptional than usual. In H2, the pressure will be on Scott Bessent to deliver some magic in the treasury markets and refinance well over a $1 trillion of longer-duration paper. The stronger-than-expected labour market, as measured by the non-farm payrolls yesterday, is not helpful. He is still wishing for a 10-year rate below 4. The UK equity market remains attractive, and there are signs that the IPO market may reopen during H2. Let's see. We discuss Secure Trust Bank's decision to put its motor finance activity into run-off, which investors appear to have welcomed. However, it is a sign that the regulations are driving this lending activity away from the transparency of the PLC world, which would be a shame. Looking ahead, we have some UK GDP data, and Wednesday marks the deadline for Trump's tariffs, which could lead to increased volatility. 

WW3 is over, oil prices are plummeting, inflation is dead, Daddy Trump is putting the world back together, including doing a trade deal with China and getting interest rates down, even if it means sacking the man who is in his way. And the UK smaller company sector has discovered the Bitcoin magic money tree and is bathing in the prospect of free money. What a time to be alive! What could possibly go wrong? This week, Gareth and Jeremy spend some time discussing the new Bitcoin Treasury Company model being developed among a cohort of UK smaller companies. Is it magic money or a dangerous bubble? Gareth also covers updates from Sanderson Design, Gear4Music and Vertu Motors. Next week is jobs week in the US, and we will get inflation data for the Eurozone. Watch for a non-farm payroll number below 100,000, which the market is likely to take positively. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the market reaction to Trump's potential intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict, as well as interest-rate "holds" from the US and UK in the face of ongoing inflationary pressure.  Japan continues to confuse - and to present major risk - with high inflation and close-to-zero interest rates, while the US/Japan trade deal is still conspicuous by its absence.  Progressive client news focussed on one stock, Oxford Metrics, whose H1 results statement highlights H2 weighting along with a skew towards US academia - a market segment clearly under pressure from Trump's defunding of large chunks of US educational budgets.  Smart Manufacturing growth will, over time, diversify the group away from these risks, but investors are worrying about the near-term.  Following a recent IPO, the UK now has its own version of the US-based Strategy (fka Microstrategy) - a "bitcoin treasury" business known as The Smarter Web Company. The stock has rocketed post its recent float, and Jeremy and Gareth discuss the fact that, from almost all bubbles and collapses, there are persistent changes, and some survivors... Speaking of survivors, Thomas Moore's fund at Aberdeen has now moved to trading at a PREMIUM to its NAV - after a decade of discounts...and the fund is raising new capital.  Evidence of green shoots then, both in terms of micro-cap investor risk appetite, and investor perceptions of value at a steady and high-quality long term investment trust.  Next week looks quiet - US GDP and inflation data will allow Trump to blame "Too Late Jay" Jerome Powell (and maybe Joe Biden) although clearly events in the Middle East will be key. 

This week, Jeremy and Gareth talk about the dramatic overnight events in Iran, as Israel's actions have led to spikes in the prices of oil and gold, but not driven the usual "flight to the dollar" in any meaningful way - the USD is trading at three-year lows. Does this signal a loss of status as a safe haven, or is it simply that investors expect the conflict to be contained and localised?  More broadly, we have seen the US / China trade deal being pieced together, although President Trump couldn't help himself launching some other tariff threats even as the China situation appears to be stabilising.  Look for an interesting discussion next week about Jay Powell's competence if the FOMC dares to not lower rates... On the UK front, Jeremy makes the point that the ongoing M&A departures are nowhere near to being replaced by IPOs - by a factor of 30:1, based on some work by Peel Hunt.  UK stocks are disappearing at a steady (and worrying) rate - those who remain are clearly "resilient" as we discussed previously, and they're becoming more and more scarce....hopefully this scarcity makes them attractive - a positive sign for valuations among those not (yet) acquired by mainly American bidders.  We had Progressive client news from Gear4Music, who acquired some cut-price assets from a failed competitor, Idox, who saw 9% y/y growth in their order book in the H1 they reported, and Intuitive Investments Group who raised just under £10m to propel activity in Hui10, a business involved in modernising and streamlining the antiquated Chinese state lottery.   Next week we have UK inflation and a rate decision (likely no change), and the US Fed rate decision (likely no change but watch for Trump's response).  Also, keep an eye on Japan -  they have a rate decision on Monday and inflation data on Friday; hopefully no surprises, although as Jeremy reminds us, at some point Japan could make headlines again.  In the meantime, we hope that the Middle East sees a degree of calm returning.Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

This week, Jeremy and Gareth and describe what felt like a more-normal few days, with signs of a slowing US economy and falling bond yields.  This was suddenly upended by the public and bitter (and very rapid) falling apart of the Trump-Musk relationship.  Musk's backing of Trump was at least partly predicated on promises of a smaller state, but Musk (and DOGE) have failed to deliver the meaningful cuts promised.  Now we have Musk shouting from the sidelines about the unsustainability of the budget deficit, which could lead to downward pressure on the dollar, upward pressure on yields and increased expectations of inflation - hence buying of Gold. The UK has had growth forecasts downgraded by the OECD, to levels well below the OBR (and presumably Rachel Reeves's) expectations - so the likelihood appears to be further tax increases and spending cuts.  The Mansion House Accord and the Pensions Investment Review give some (but potentially morally questionable) impetus and cause for optimism - but Wise Technologies plans to move to a main US listing, and a pulled cobalt-related IPO bring us back to earth. Progressive stocks mentioned include IG Design Group, tinyBuild, SDI, all with news, but most broadly relevant is Van Elle whose early-stage involvement in housebuilding projects is being delayed by building regulator logjams....alongside earlier news from MJ Gleeson this points to a more-cautious view on the recently-rosy prospects for housebuilders. Next week is all about US data - non-farm payrolls, inflation data and sentiment from the University of Michigan...Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

This week, Gareth and Jeremy continue their discussion about the bond market's predicament. Japan's Ministry of Finance thought that sending a questionnaire to its bond investors would resolve its problem. But it soon encountered another difficult auction, suggesting that its first step in acknowledging the problem was insufficient. Meanwhile, Japan's manufacturing prowess is under attack from China, its biggest competitor and from the US, its largest customer. The fact that Japan holds over a trillion dollars of US Treasury debt is a card to consider in its trade talks with the US. Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs have encountered a judicial roadblock, causing a sharp recovery in risk assets. However, this was not so helpful for bond markets, where investors had hoped that tariffs might plug some of the fiscal hole left by Trump's Big Beautiful Bill. In the UK, Rachel Reeves has signalled her intention to term forward its debt, increasing her interest rate exposure but lowering her short-term funding costs. Additionally, the IMF is offering air cover for her to bend her unbendable fiscal rules. A treat not afforded to her predecessors. Watch out for the spending spigots to turn fully on.   The takeaway is that long-term global inflation expectations are out of the bottle, the bond market term premia hares are running, and there is a return to the old idea of outrunning the looming debt crisis. This raises the risk of monetary debasement, which should be beneficial for Bitcoin, gold, and (selectively) equities.  Gareth covers updates from Beeks, and Watkins Jones. Looking ahead, it's jobs week in the US. We get EA inflation data and the ECB rate decision. Additionally, confirmation that the economy slowed sharply in Q1 could raise concerns about the potential for a recession in the US.   Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss Moody's downgrade of US debt, Donald's Big Beautiful Bill (yes, that is what it is called), and the bond vigilantes' work at the long end of the yield curve. Jeremy discusses Japan's special place in all this and wonders how the world's monetary authorities can put the long-term inflation genie back in the bottle. In the UK, inflation and government borrowing were higher than expected, making it a bad week for Rachel Reeves. But at least we have rejoined the EU (well, agreed to agree with them about a few things). Despite all this, the UK market remained in a decent mood with small and mid-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks.Gareth discusses updates and results from Forterra, IDOX and SDI Group.   Next week, some US Q1 GDP data is widely expected to show a sharp decline in activity. However, investors' main focus is likely to remain on the long end of the bond market and how to avoid the impact of FX and bond volatility.  Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the US-China trade deal and Donald's many other activities: investment advice, trade deals, a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, huge win/win deals in the Middle East, and a crackdown on big pharma. However, although the market has round tripped from the lows of early April, there is lasting damage to financial market confidence from the weaker dollar and stubbornly higher long-term bond yields.   The Saudis traded lower oil prices for US weapons and AI chips to help it turn its energy to power AI data centres.But, the probability of a US recession has reduced. The UK economy grew faster than any other G7 economy in Q1, and the UK equity market continued to perform better.   Gareth discusses news from Progressive research clients: Idox announced an acquisition, Gamma Communications gave an AGM update, Vertu Motors released FY 2025 results, which talk of a good start to the year, Nexus Infrastructure released H1 results, which report on the housebuilding recovery progress, and Secure Trust Bank reported a good start to their new financial year. Looking ahead, we have inflation data from the UK and Japan, both signalling increases, which looks like a particular challenge for Japan. We feel that they should take some advice on how Argentina has coped with its much greater inflation problem over the last 12 months! Brought to you by Progressive Equity.   

This week Jeremy and Gareth discuss a smorgasbord of newsflow... from trade deals to interest rate cuts (or lack of them) and the selection of Maro Itoje as captain of the Lions team.UK stocks discussed include ZOO Digital and Van Elle, and Jeremy describes the divergent outcomes for Alpha Group and Argentex...two payments/FX trading platforms who have had their resilience tested in recent years, with wildly different results.Next week will see UK unemployment and GDP data, with US retail sales, inflation and consumer sentiment... watch for an angry Trump.   Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Jeremy and Gareth discuss a slightly more normal week - Larry Fink and Jamie Dimon are talking up the UK market just as capital is being freed-up from the Mag Seven. The UK small-cap space is delivering strong performance from stocks able to deliver not-worsening performance...we discuss Watkin Jones, Sanderson Design Group and IG Design as well as global shipping heavyweight Clarkson.Jeremy highlights that lower energy prices could help pressure Putin towards peace, as well as potentially saving Labour's bacon - if they can wean themselves off Net Zero....Next week is all about interest rate decisions...Trump vs Powell back in the headlines. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

This week, Jeremy and Gareth wonder whether there are signs of life... UK plc is perhaps "priced for failure" and recent share price moves suggest that even in-line performance (or only a small warning!) can lead to material upside.  Severfield is a case in point, but this week has seen a number of examples. Jupiter and AJ Bell are also talking more positively. Still, risks abound, as the unfortunate Argentex investor base have seen - a canary in the coal mine, showing that volatility or abnormal market activity can lead to unforeseen consequences. Jeremy wonders whether the attack on US university funding could likewise lead to unexpected outcomes.... Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

This week, Jeremy and Gareth consider the ongoing shocks to the global system - and wonder whether the UK (or UK plc at least) is unusually well positioned, as well as attractively priced.  Although Trump's "shock and awe" has calmed this week, gold is rising, the dollar is falling and US government debt is highly volatile...it feels as though we've had "America's Brexit moment", a "global Liz Truss event" and now a re-run of Covid supply chain pressures - as we hear reports of ships halted in ports awaiting instruction, and markets can't tell whether current demand is real or stocking-up for an uncertain future. The UK has had more than its fair share of such volatility - and maybe we can manage it better. Micro-cap news from Progressive clients tinyBuild and Gear4Music shows that stocks delivering "not worsening" news, having cut their costs and adapted their models, can perform strongly - both up 20% at one point this week.The Easter weekend weather in the UK is forecast to disappoint - let's hope the UK's broader performance across the rest of the year reflects what we see as quite some potential. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

This week, Jeremy and Gareth  talk less about tariffs and more about their impact on capital markets - bonds in particular.  Jeremy makes the point that the USA is now experiencing a Brexit AND "Liz Truss" moment at the same time - resulting in a falling dollar and rising rates.  Keep an eye on those two, and the gold price, and you have three metrics which give dashboard of the current situation - and level of trust in the US administration. While Trump's economic guns are all trained on China, Scott Bessent is on his way to Japan - a major owner and buyer of US treasuries....remember the carry trade unwind panic of mid-last year...?  Closer to home, we hope that the UK is next on Bessent's list, with a trade deal in the offing. Small-cap news was from Nexus Infrastructure, Beeks and SDI Group.Big data next week includes China GDP (required to be c.5%), UK inflation for March, US retail sales and hopefully a rate-cut from the European Central Bank. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Jeremy and Gareth react to Donald Trump's tariff pronouncements - major downward moves in US equities, and increased risk of a US slowdown. But there is  some hope that the UK could navigate these choppy waters cleverly - and even a small proportion of the capital currently being reallocated could make a huge difference to the UK markets. UK stock news from Gear4Music, Pharos, tinyBuild, Intuitive Investments, Peel Hunt and Alphawave.  Next week - in addition to early responses to the US tariffs - we get Chinese inflation data, plus both inflation and sentiment survey info from the USA.Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

This week, Jeremy and Gareth discuss some home truths about the UK economy - Rachel Reeves has reassured bond investors for now, but the low-growth stubborn-inflation structural problems persist.Ironically, Trump's erratic tariff-wielding tactics could drive capital AWAY from the USA, to the benefit of China, Germany and even the UK equity market.And this week, a couple of UK stocks with "reasonable" news - Xaar and SRT Marine - saw 25%+ price moves suggesting that many stocks are priced for pessimism.  Gamma Communications delivered a solid 2024, and we think investors are more wary than they should be of German expansion.Next week sees Chinese confidence data, European inflation and crucially US jobs...as well as 2 April seeing Trump's tariffs (probably....) come into effect.  Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Headline grabbing Trump noise from Washington has died down but with concerns around tariffs, and issues in the Ukraine and the Middle East still not settled, Jeremy and Gareth discuss the common theme this week which has been central bankers and companies talking about trade related uncertainty.Overall the forecasts of GDP growth in the major economies in the world are coming down, but inflation expectations remain heightened. Big US corporates such as Nike and FedEx cited trade uncertainty as a major issue and it’s been referenced increasingly in UK RNS announcements. With US focus seemingly now more on longer term interest rates than the level of the US stock market, overriding market sentiment is one of capital flight from the US to the rest of the world. A survey documenting the capital allocation intentions of the world's largest asset managers listed the biggest one month allocation away from US equities ever recorded. Some has gone to Germany and the wider European market, some has gone into China and there's also been a big allocation into US treasuries. Although there's no direct evidence of much of this capital finding its way into the UK market yet, Jeremy and Gareth remain hopeful! In the UK, Gareth talks about Beeks (BKS) and FDM who both had results. Employment data this week was pretty much as expected. However UK government borrowing data was running ahead of expectations,which doesn’t bode well for next week's Spring Statement and the brewing government dispute about whether they should continue to look to raise taxes or to reduce government spending.Next week we have UK inflation data on Wednesday, and on Friday we get US PCE data (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure). Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

This week, Jeremy and Gareth mull over the macro situation - the US economy seems to be slowing (but inflation persists) while Europe, especially Germany, has been bullied into spending more than ever.  The UK, and arguably Europe, haven't yet seen much benefit from the outflow of capital from the MAG Seven, but remember, the whole German market cap is not dissimilar to the value of Microsoft - so there's a lot more to go for.UK companies discussed include STV, Forterra, Van Elle, Secure Trust Bank, Cakebox, Care REIT, Hornby and Science Group/Ricardo. Next week the big news is around inflation - hope for no upside surprises (especially from Tokyo). Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

This week, Gareth and Jeremy try to keep up with the gyrations from across the Atlantic - both around defence alliances and tariff policies.In terms of the impact on Europe and the UK, Germany is stepping up and spending big, which is driving up both (European) stock markets and (German) borrowing costs.  Trump seems to be ignoring the stock market and is probably happy that US borrowing costs are falling - crucial for the upcoming refinancing of a significant chunk of US government debt.  Closer to home, Severfield is seeing tough conditions which reflect a sluggish broader economy, and XP Power's £41m raise shows that UK markets aren't completely closed.  Next week, we'll discuss US jobs data and inflation...unless Trump 2.0 delivers another surprise! Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Jeremy and Gareth talk this week about Trump 2.0 launching with a number of "adults in the room" who Trump trusts, and who can get things done. One thing that might get done is a US/UK trade deal...Jeremy describes how the stars could align, and how the UK's separation from Europe might save us from the worst of Trump's tariffs. Absent much other UK stock news, Jeremy talks about LSEG, whose results demonstrate just how small the London Stock Exchange actually is, relative to the rest of the group's business. This leads to discussion of the US, where the OTC is generating real interest, and Singapore, where the authorities are actively promoting local investment and local listings. Next week is jobs week in the USA...fingers crossed that all is well. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

This week, Gareth and Jeremy catch up on the week that marked one full month since Trump's return to the White House. Following JD Vance's lecture to Europe in Munich, the US initiated peace talks with Russia in Riyadh. This confirmed that the old world order has moved to a new one involving power projection by strong men operating in their own economic and strategic interests. Europe, the UN, and NATO are not involved. Starmer's meeting with Trump will be a career-defining event for him and a pivotal opportunity for the UK as a potential bridge between the US and the rest of Europe at this critical juncture for the West. It also represents Trump's desire to tidy up Ukraine and Gaza to get to his main match-up, the strongman heavyweight contest between the US and China.  Xi has been boosting China's stock market and technology sector through a symbolic handshake with Jack Ma at a conference this week. The pair infamously fell out in 2021, with Ma disappearing from public view for a few years.   Alibaba shares and the wider Chinese stock market have performed much better than the US Mag Seven over the last month but remain well below their peak values of 4 years ago. Gold had another strong week, and Trump says he is going to Fort Knox to check that the gold is still there. Gold and real assets have become more central to investor options as bonds have lost their appeal as risk-off assets in a more inflationary world. Japan records much higher inflation, which seems to require much higher rates. However, the yen carry trade worries of last summer have not recurred. In the UK, there remains mixed economic data, but, on balance, there is less likelihood of significantly lower rates soon as inflation trends up for the next few months.     Gareth runs through the week in company news, with caution from Thruvision and Zoo Digital and positive updates from Oxford Metrics, Beeks and Springfield Property. The main event will be the German election on Sunday, which will have consequences for wider European politics, but don't expect things to happen quickly.  There are some US GDP and PCE inflation data, but the headlines will likely remain dominated by politics, with Starmer's trip to DC and Trump checking his gold reserves in Texas.  Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

This week, Gareth and Jeremy tackle the investment implications of Trump 2.0. After shocking the world with his suggestion of turning Gaza into the Riviera of the Middle East, Trump has moved on to Ukraine. Such events illustrate how the accepted World order has broken down. Where is the UN in all of this? One outcome has been a new all-time high in the gold price, indicating heightened risks and uncertainties for global investors. The US inflation data also came in hot. Yet, counter-intuitively, it didn't dent the gold bull market, indicating perhaps investor concerns over policy errors or breakdown in the relationship between the Treasury and the Fed.Relative to other monetary metals, gold looks expensive, and silver or platinum might offer better opportunities to protect against fiat money debasement. Not advice; do your own research.  China's equity values have recovered strongly after the Deep Seek AI revelations. Alibaba's stock has risen over 40% in less than a month, indicating the impact of the dispersal trade. The UK economy unexpectedly grew in Q4 last year. While negative sentiment surrounds the economy, UK assets remain relatively attractive to global investors. This week, one example of how the UK government prioritises economic growth is emerging in the newsflow of the motor finance and retail sectors. With significant exposure to car loans, Close Brothers and SU made constructive updates this week, indicating that motor finance might avoid the protracted drag on consumer lending that PPI became.  Gareth covers the impact of government policy on Secure Trust Bank and Vertu Motors.    Looking ahead, we will get UK inflation data next week, which is likely to indicate a flat annual rate of 2.5%.  Also, we get Japanese inflation data, and the accompanying risk of the yen carry-trade unwind.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.    

This week, Gareth is joined by Progressive's Building & Construction analyst, Alastair Stewart.  The pair muse on Trump's tariff-based discussions with various world leaders, with Xi Jinping (the obvious and most-dangerous outlier) adding a bit of Chinese spice to the mix, with some largely-unreported moves.  Alastair describes the UK building stocks, and their reaction to the Bank of England's rate cut, as well as some (good and bad) fundamental drivers of sector activity.  Progressive clients with news included tinyBuild and STV Group.  Next week we have US inflation and both UK and EU GDP...which could put this week's halving of expectations in context...Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

With Jeremy enjoying sunnier climes, Gareth is joined by George O'Connor, the Progressive tech analyst.  The week has been dominated by DeepSeek's sudden unveiling of a low-cost Chinese-created competitor in the AI (large language model) world.  George provides some useful perspective on what this means more broadly.  If the Magnificent Seven US tech names lose some of their lustre, the much-vaunted dispersal trade might follow, as investors look to move capital elsewhere...maybe even as far as the UK market.  The pair discuss SThree, Manpower, FDM, Sage & Computacenter, and Progressive clients Idox and Van Elle (both with relatively upbeat updates).Next week we have the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday, sandwiched by US PMI data earlier in the week and employment (non-farm payrolls) due on Friday.  Unless China drops another (figurative) bombshell in the meantime... Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

Jeremy and Gareth talk through the first week of Trump's second term - tariffs are delayed and perhaps downgraded, and Donald has told the Davos attendees how to grow their economies so they can pay for NATO.  Closer to home, Rachel Reeves is unveiling policy after policy designed to spur growth...can it last? And can it work?   This week saw a slew of announcements from UK stocks - builders are doing better than retail, and in the Progressive camp, both Intuitive Investments Group and SRT Marine caught our attention. Next week, we have US and European interest rate decisions, and US inflation...Donald will surely have something to say!Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

With peace breaking out in the Middle East, and Trump taking back the keys to the White House, the world is changing fast...Jeremy and Gareth discuss the ways that the USA is causing trouble for other countries - and Rachel Reeves.  But some benign inflation data rode to the rescue, and UK companies reporting "in line" trading are putting on double-digit percentage price gains: perhaps too much negativity is priced in?? We discuss Genus, Trustpilot, Hunting and Vistry, as well as Progressive clients Petro Matad, Xaar and Gamma.  Next week, watch for Japanese inflation - and their interest rate decision. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.