The Market Chronicles

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

https://www.themarketchronicle.com/subscribe Welcome to the Market Chronicles podcast, hosted by Michael Kramer. Stay ahead of the curve with in-depth analysis of the stock market, including S&P 500 trends, bond yields, global currencies, and key indicators like GDP, PCE, and employment reports. Plus, explore macroeconomic themes, from Federal Reserve strategies to the latest updates from the ECB, BOJ, and beyond. Don’t miss timely discussions on major earnings releases from companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla, as well as weekly previews of economic calendars and market-moving events. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Volume levels in the S&P 500 Futures have fallen to their lowest levels since mid-December. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

The VIX, Rates, and Oil all fell on Tuesday January 21, 2025 Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

In this episode of The Market Chronicles, Michael Kramer dives deep into the latest economic data and market trends shaping the financial landscape. Starting with a detailed analysis of the December jobs report, he unpacks the impressive drop in unemployment, significant labor market revisions, and how these changes set the stage for January’s anticipated updates. Michael also explores inflation expectations, highlighting critical findings from the University of Michigan survey, and discusses the implications of rising consumer inflation forecasts despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes. Looking ahead, Michael previews key economic reports, including CPI, PPI, and retail sales, while examining how these indicators might influence Federal Reserve policy decisions and market sentiment. He provides insight into movements in the bond and currency markets, the steepening yield curve, and the S&P 500’s recent performance. With volatility on the rise and the Fed entering its blackout period, this episode offers a comprehensive overview of the data and events driving the markets in the week ahead. Tune in to stay informed and prepared for the financial week ahead! Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

The stock market had a relatively quiet day, with the S&P 500 closing essentially flat, up just 16 basis points. Key focus remains on the 5870 support level, which has been tested multiple times. A breach of this level could signal a larger decline, potentially completing a head-and-shoulders pattern. Equity markets are closed tomorrow, while the bond market remains open until 2 PM. Friday’s reopening coincides with the jobs report, and today’s rise in the VIX suggests hedging ahead of this event. Globally, rate movements in the UK, Japan, and Europe are notable, with implications for market volatility. Bitcoin’s decline signals possible liquidity concerns, while collapsing equity financing costs hint at reduced demand for leverage. These dynamics, along with activity in Chinese and global markets, underscore complex trends in the current environment. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Today’s episode of Market Chronicles dives into the market’s volatile reaction to stronger-than-expected economic data. Key reports, including the ISM Services Prices Paid Index and JOLTS, revealed persistent inflationary pressures, sending bond yields sharply higher. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.69%, and inflation swaps broke out, signaling rising inflation expectations. Stocks took a hit, with the S&P 500 down over 1% and the Nasdaq falling nearly 1.8%, as rate-sensitive sectors struggled. Nvidia was a notable drag, contributing significantly to the broader market decline. With upcoming data releases and Fed minutes on the horizon, the focus remains on inflation, rates, and market resilience. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

In this episode of The Market Chronicles, Michael Kramer breaks down a choppy trading session on January 6, where the S&P 500 closed up 55 basis points after giving back earlier gains. NVIDIA stood out with a 3.5% rise, driving much of the day’s strength, while broader market breadth deteriorated significantly, with more decliners than advancers by the close. Key sectors like energy, financials, and industrials were in the red, while technology led the gains. Michael discusses the impact of rising interest rates, upcoming auctions, and major economic data, setting the stage for the days ahead. Tune in for insights on today’s market action and what’s next. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

This week on The Market Chronicles, host Michael Kramer dives into the critical economic data that could shape interest rate movements. With key reports like JOLTS, ISM Services, and non-farm payrolls on the horizon, the stage is set for potential breakouts in 10- and 30-year Treasury yields. Will stronger-than-expected data push rates higher, tightening financial conditions and impacting markets globally? We’ll analyze what these developments mean for U.S. inflation, Fed policy, and global liquidity. Join us as we explore the ripple effects of rising rates, a strengthening dollar, and shifting credit spreads on equity valuations and risk assets. From the Federal Reserve to the ECB, we’ll cover the international perspective on rate movements, along with the potential for big moves in global bond markets. Don’t miss this timely episode packed with insights to keep you ahead of the markets! Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

This week is set to be pivotal for the financial markets as critical economic data rolls in, shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy path. Since September, markets have significantly adjusted their rate cut expectations, now projecting fewer than two cuts for 2025. Strong economic data in the coming days could reinforce the view that the rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its end—or even hint at the possibility of rate hikes. The S&P 500 finished last week down 50 basis points, but a Friday rally helped offset further declines. Key technical levels, including the 50-day and 10-day moving averages, are acting as resistance points, making this a crucial moment for market movements. Interest rates are also in focus, with the 10-year Treasury yield approaching significant resistance at 4.60%, a potential breakout level that could drive rates higher. This week’s economic calendar includes S&P Global PMI data on Monday, JOLTS and ISM Services on Tuesday, and the highly anticipated ADP employment report and nonfarm payrolls later in the week. Market sentiment is sensitive to any upside surprises in jobs data, wages, or unemployment rates, as these could challenge current expectations for rate cuts in 2025 and reignite fears of a return to tightening. Additionally, shifts in the yield curve and rising term premiums on longer-dated bonds reflect growing inflation and duration risk concerns. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Join Michael Kramer on The Market Chronic for an in-depth analysis of today’s market moves, including significant swings in the S&P 500, Nvidia’s pivotal role, and the implications of falling demand for leverage. Stay ahead with key insights on economic data, market sentiment, and what’s next for investors. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Welcome to Market Chronicles! In this episode, host Michael Kramer dives into the latest developments in the financial markets as we begin 2025. Michael discusses the critical factors shaping the year, including liquidity challenges, the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo facility trends, and the rising interest rate environment. Key economic data like the ISM Manufacturing Index and inflation swaps are analyzed, alongside their potential impact on equities and fixed-income markets. This transcript also explores technical market patterns, such as the S&P 500’s head-and-shoulders formation and its implications for investors. With insights into Treasury issuance strategies, leverage trends, and macroeconomic forecasts, this episode provides a comprehensive overview of the factors influencing markets today. Whether you’re an active trader or a long-term investor, this detailed transcript is your guide to staying informed and prepared in 2025.

Today’s market action highlighted ongoing challenges, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.07% and market breadth continuing to show significant weakness. Of the S&P 500, 470 stocks declined, while only 31 advanced, signaling bearish sentiment. Key breadth indicators, such as the McClellan Oscillator (-43) and Summation Index (-351), underscore the fragility beneath headline numbers. Secondary indices like the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) and Russell 2000 (IWM) show sharper declines, down 7.5% and nearly 10%, respectively. Sector-specific weakness is particularly evident in housing (HGX, -18% from peak) and materials (XLB, -15% from peak). Without the support of the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks, broader market losses would be even more pronounced. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields fell 9–10 basis points, possibly reflecting rebalancing ahead of year-end. Patterns of early-morning futures selling suggest coordinated flows tied to reallocation efforts. With most global markets closed on December 31, U.S. markets remain a key source of liquidity heading into year-end. As the S&P 500 hovers around key support at 58.75, the formation of a potential head-and-shoulders pattern warrants close attention. Stay tuned for further developments as we enter 2024.

Michael Kramer of the Mott Capital Chronicles Podcast discusses the week ahead in markets as we approach 2025. With a holiday-shortened trading week and limited economic data, key focus points include housing data, continuing jobless claims on January 2, and the ISM Manufacturing Report on January 3, expected at 48.2. Last week’s spike in jobless claims to 1.91 million could raise concerns if not revised downward. Equity markets ended last week with weak breadth despite a late rally, while major tech names like Nvidia and Apple contributed to losses. Additionally, a sharp decline in S&P 500 total return futures for March 2025 reflects potential end-of-year deleveraging or reduced demand for leverage, with more clarity expected when FINRA margin balance data is released. The bond market saw the 30-year Treasury yield rise to 4.82%, signaling a steepening yield curve as longer-term rates climb faster than shorter-term ones. This bear steepener could pressure equities in the months ahead, echoing historical patterns from the 1960s when rising rates and negative equity risk premiums challenged markets. Forward-looking Treasury contracts suggest rates may rise further in 2025, potentially increasing equity financing costs. Kramer emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquidity trends, margin demand, and yield curve shifts as these dynamics will shape the market’s direction in the coming year. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

Stocks closed the week with significant turbulence as liquidity constraints and rising rates continued to pressure the market. The steepening yield curve and climbing long-term rates are placing additional strain on already fragile conditions. Questions are mounting about whether this is the start of a fundamental shift or a temporary reaction to year-end balance sheet adjustments, with volatility and market sentiment on edge. Following the Fed’s recent announcement, markets saw dramatic swings: a sharp two-day decline, a retracement rally, and another drop before recovering slightly on Friday. Liquidity has emerged as a growing concern, with levels contracting sharply post-Fed meeting. Key indicators, such as bid-ask spreads in S&P 500 futures and SPY ETFs, widened significantly, signaling tighter market conditions and heightened volatility. Additionally, the demand for leveraged equities appears to be fading, as evidenced by collapsing funding costs in futures contracts and a sharp decline in repo market activity. With long-term rates like the 10-year nearing potential breakout levels, the pressure on equity markets may intensify. As we look ahead, the possibility of further yield curve steepening looms, creating a challenging environment for investors. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

In this post-holiday market update, the S&P 500 remained flat amid light trading, with futures volume reflecting the season’s subdued activity. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the 10-year settling at 4.59% after a strong seven-year auction, signaling continued investor interest in U.S. debt. Technical patterns on the 30-year Treasury suggest potential upward movement, hinting at further yield curve normalization. Equity financing costs and repo activity for equities saw significant declines, raising questions about reduced leverage demand—possibly year-end adjustments or broader market shifts. With fewer anticipated Fed rate cuts next year, markets appear to be reassessing risk, making this a critical time to watch developments closely. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

The S&P 500 rallied by about 75 basis points today, but it remains a market where solid breadth is lacking. Breadth was notably weak in the morning, though it improved slightly as the day progressed. Nvidia emerged as the leading stock, contributing 34% of the day’s gains according to data from the Bloomberg 500 Index, while Broadcom added 15%. This translated to the Bloomberg 500 gaining nearly 15 points, with Nvidia accounting for five points and Broadcom for 2.25 points. By the end of the day, S&P 500 breadth showed 275 stocks advancing versus 225 declining. Trading volume was light, with the SPY ETF trading just 35 million shares, well below the 20-day average of 46 million. S&P 500 futures also saw lower activity, trading only 1.3 million contracts compared to the 1.5 million average. Short interest volume in SPY and QQQ ETFs showed notable increases in recent days, reaching some of the highest levels since December 2023 for QQQ and March 2024 for SPY. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose six basis points to 4.59%, hitting a new high since its September 17 low. This steepened the yield curve, with the 10-2 spread widening by four basis points to 25 basis points. The Powell Indicator, measuring the spread between the 3-month Treasury yield 18 months forward and the current 3-month yield, rose to +15 basis points, its highest level since November 2022. This suggests the market anticipates higher short-term rates in the future, possibly reflecting expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. With today’s light trading and technical levels holding steady, the market awaits further developments in the coming sessions. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

This holiday-shortened trading week will bring limited market activity, with US markets closing early at 1 PM Eastern on Christmas Eve and fully closed on December 25th. European markets will be shut on December 25th and 26th, while Japan and China will remain open, offering some global trading opportunities. Key focus will be on Treasury auctions for 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes, following weak results in recent weeks that have contributed to rising yields. The 10-year Treasury yield is targeting resistance at 4.75%, while the 2s/10s curve could steepen further, possibly narrowing to 15 basis points. Friday’s market volatility was driven by options expiration and a negative gamma environment, as the S&P 500 reversed at its 10-day moving average and closed near the 50-day, while the Nasdaq 100 saw a bearish engulfing pattern that may indicate a potential trend reversal. Expect thinner liquidity this week, which could amplify stock market and bond market moves. Last week’s PCE inflation report aligned with the Fed’s 2.8% year-end target but had minimal market impact, as Fed funds swaps and two-year inflation expectations remained steady. The US dollar index showed resilience but softened Friday due to yen volatility and a euro rebound. Funding pressures have eased, with BTIC January contracts retreating from recent highs. As we approach year-end, watch the Fed’s reverse repo and standing repo facilities, which play a key role in managing liquidity and controlling short-term interest rates. With global markets largely subdued, these facilities could signal financial stress or volatility. Traders should remain cautious of potential equity market swings and sharp moves in Treasury yields as year-end trading dynamics unfold. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

The stock market plunged sharply this week, and I’m here to explain why we might be on the brink of a massive deleveraging event, triggered after a period of eerily low realized volatility. Adding fuel to the fire, margin levels have skyrocketed over the past month, even as reserve balances have plummeted. Investors seem to be turning desperately to the overnight repo market to amplify their leverage—a precarious move as funding costs have surged. Let’s start with the obvious: the S&P 500 dropped about 2% this week after a sharp 3% decline, following the Fed’s hawkish pivot. This was followed by a brief rebound on Friday to the 61.8% retracement level, where it failed. Over the next few weeks, we’ll need to monitor how this plays out. Clear shifts have already occurred in the market, with early warning signs appearing at the start of December. For instance, the VVIX, which measures the implied volatility of the VIX, began climbing after the jobs report and continued through the FOMC meeting. In early December, realized volatility levels were exceptionally low. Ten-day realized volatility was around 5% on December 3, while 20-day realized volatility stood at 6% on December 13. Using the rule of 16 (the square root of 252), this implies daily S&P 500 moves of only 31 to 40 basis points before realized volatility increases. With key events like the jobs report, CPI report, Fed meeting, and Bank of Japan meeting on the calendar, it became clear that implied volatility would rise—and the VVIX reflected this anticipation. This could signal broader issues ahead. If we’ve entered a period of heightened volatility, historical parallels suggest it could persist. For example, we saw a similar spike in July, which led to elevated volatility through November due to the election. Last spring, a similar pattern emerged, with volatility rising rapidly before stabilizing by mid-May. One of the biggest challenges now is the sharp decline in reserve balances held at the Fed throughout the year. Last year, rising reserve balances helped inject liquidity into the market, but this year, we’ve seen a reversal. This is tied to quantitative tightening, the drawdown of the Bank Term Funding Facility, and the normalization of the Treasury General Account. Compounding this, the reverse repo facility recently hit its lowest level in years. Despite declining reserve balances, margin levels jumped 9% in November alone, an unusual increase given the liquidity backdrop. This suggests investors are sourcing liquidity elsewhere, possibly by leveraging collateral in the form of stocks through the repo market. This activity has pushed total securities outstanding to a new high, indicating investors are extracting cash for further leverage. However, financing costs have soared, as shown by the DTIC S&P 500 total return futures, which measure leverage costs. These costs have surged since mid-September, hitting record highs. The rise in financing costs, coupled with increased dealer activity in the repo market, underscores the strain on dealer balance sheets. Investors are scrambling for leverage as costs climb, and while there was some relief late in the week, the futures curve suggests this strain won’t ease soon. Historical comparisons with 2021-2023 highlight how much cheaper financing was in prior years, further emphasizing the current pressure. Rising realized volatility and funding costs could deter additional leverage in a more uncertain market environment. If volatility remains elevated—signaled by moves of 1-2% daily—the VIX could stay in the 16-20 range for some time. Monitoring primary dealer reports, reserve balances, and BTIC S&P 500 futures will be crucial for understanding how leverage and market conditions evolve. I hope you found this analysis helpful. Don’t forget to like, share, and subscribe for more updates. Have a great weekend, and see you next week! Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.

The Market Chronicles is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.The Dow broke its 10-day losing streak today; however, the bad news is it only finished the day up 0.04%. So, while the streak was broken, it was just barely. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 ended the day essentially flat. It was up about 70 to 80 basis points earlier in the day, but those gains evaporated as the day progressed. The Nasdaq didn’t fare well either, closing about 50 basis points lower and, more importantly, breaking below support at 21,160—a significant level. We’ll need to see how this plays out tomorrow with the PCE report. The next support region for the Nasdaq might not come until around 20,740, roughly 400 points lower.Today was the day before OpEx. Typically, on the day before OpEx, the QYLD ETF buys back the covered call it sold on the Nasdaq index the prior month. These flows generally start around 2 PM. Despite the market being higher earlier in the day, it fell apart toward the close, even with the QYLD ETF buying back its December 21st option at the 20,475 strike. This should have been more bullish, given the delta notional value of nearly $10 billion. The fact that the market still finished down suggests significant selling pressure throughout the afternoon.Tomorrow, the QYLD ETF will sell an option in the Nasdaq index for January’s OpEx, which may create downward pressure due to market makers' hedging-related flow. This could weigh on the market, particularly in the morning when these actions occur. Today’s price action wasn’t encouraging, with the S&P 500 appearing to close near a key support level at 4,875, which could lead to a gap fill at 4,780 or even as low as 4,690.The PCE report tomorrow will be critical. While the Fed has indicated its estimate of 0.2% core inflation aligns with analyst expectations, the average market estimate is closer to 0.17%. A result above 0.2% could surprise the market and further pressure rates, which rose again today. The 10-year yield climbed five basis points to 4.57%, and the 30-year rose six basis points to 4.74%. This steepened the yield curve, with the 10-2 spread increasing ten basis points to 25, breaking out of a bull flag pattern. This steepening phase could signal a bear steepening cycle where the 10-year yield rises away from the 2-year, a particularly adverse scenario for equities. Today’s five-year TIPS auction was notably weak, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.1, down from the previous 2.4, and an indirect participation rate of just 51.4%—the lowest since 2013. This pushed real yields higher, with the five-year real yield up five basis points to 2.09% and the 10-year real yield up seven basis points to 2.26%. Rising real yields, if they outpace nominal rates, can suppress breakeven inflation expectations, as observed today with the two-year swap falling two basis points to 2.52%. While inflation expectations have stopped rising for now—a positive sign for the Fed—they remain elevated compared to September. Market breadth remains a concern, with small caps underperforming. Today, the IWM fell another 44 basis points, aligning with widening credit spreads. The CDX High Yield Credit Spread Index rose five points to 318, suggesting small caps may struggle further as credit spreads widen. Historically, small caps correlate strongly with credit spreads rather than nominal or real rates.See you Sunday!-MikeCharts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment. To hear more, visit www.themarketchronicle.com

Take Advantage of Special Discounts on The Market Chronicles Paid ServicesAs expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but the market was caught off guard by the Fed’s positioning regarding future rate cuts. Looking back, it was somewhat obvious. Earlier today, I shared a video for Market Chronicles paid members, highlighting how analysts were expecting more rate cuts than what the Fed Funds Futures and overnight swaps markets were pricing in. Historically, in my experience, the FOMC aligns more closely with Fed Funds and swaps markets than with analysts’ expectations, so the analysts seemed overly optimistic.We may see fewer—or potentially no—rate cuts next year. The Fed swaps market is currently pricing in just one rate cut for next year, with the odds of more than two cuts essentially at zero. Currently, the market projects the Fed Funds rate to end 2025 around 4%, which implies just one more small rate cut. This marks a significant shift from where expectations stood three to six months ago—or even last year.(BLOOMBERG)The two-year Treasury yield, currently hovering around resistance at 4.35%, could rise significantly. A breakout above 4.35% might push it towards 4.61%. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield, now trading at 4.52%, is breaking out and could reach 4.75% or higher. Ultimately, if Fed Funds settle in the upper 3% range and you add a premium of 2–3% above Fed Funds, the 10-year yield could approach 6%. Similarly, the two-year yield in the high 4% range suggests another 200 basis points higher for the 10-year, reinforcing the potential for it to reach 6%.The dollar strengthened sharply today, hitting 108, its highest level since November 2022. This puts the Bank of Japan in a bind ahead of its policy decision tonight. The yen, which is weakening against the dollar, has risen to 155. I doubt the BOJ wants further yen depreciation, so it may be forced to either raise rates or adopt a hawkish tone on future rate hikes.This scenario continues to reflect the higher rates, stronger dollar, and tighter financial conditions we’ve discussed before. Credit spreads also widened significantly today. The CDX High Yield Credit Spread Index rose 17 points to 315—still low by historical standards but much higher than the sub-400 levels of a year ago. A widening in credit spreads typically translates to higher earnings yields on the S&P 500, which could lead to multiple contractions.The S&P 500 dropped 3% today, closing below 5,900. If the index breaks this level, it could decline into the 5,600s. The VIX also spiked, ending the day at 27.6—up 12 points. The one-day VIX rose 32 points to 45.75, signaling sharply higher implied volatility. Realized volatility is also climbing, with the 10-day measure rising to 17.5, the 20-day to 13.5, and the 30-day to 12.Small caps had a rough day, falling 4.5% and erasing all their post-election gains. The Russell 2000 is now back to November 2023 levels. Regional banks dropped about 5%, and the housing sector also saw significant declines, with the Philly Housing Sector Index (HGX) down almost 4%. Finally, the three-month forward rate (18 months out) rose to 4.40% today, above the three-month Treasury spot rate for the first time in a long while, This marks the end of a prolonged period of inversion since the fall of 2022. The curve's uninversion may further signal that the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle has concluded, as it closed above 0% at 0.06% today.Have a great night, and I’ll see you next time.-MikeCharts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment. To hear more, visit www.themarketchronicle.com

See 2024 Year-End TMC Specials It was another weak day for the markets. The S&P 500 closed lower by 39 basis points, but weakness was more pronounced in the RSP equal-weight index, down 80 basis points. The Dow dropped for the ninth consecutive day, losing 66 basis points.Breadth continues to deteriorate across the marketplace. In the S&P, 378 stocks were down, while only 120 were up. Looking at the Bloomberg 500 proxy for the S&P, the decline would have been worse had Tesla not gained 3.5%, which contributed approximately 2 points to the index, even as it finished 9 points lower. Broadcom notably unwound, falling 4%, while Nvidia dropped about 1%. Signs of deterioration are increasingly apparent.(BLOOMBERG)The NYSE McClellan Oscillator ratio-adjusted finished today at -73.5, which is not an extremely oversold condition. For context, it hit -100 in April, so there is still room for further decline, but a reasonably low level. More importantly, the NYSE Summation Index—essentially a cumulative measure of the McClellan Oscillator—closed at 88. This index becomes particularly significant if it drops below zero, which could signal broader market changes. We will need to monitor this closely.Another key indicator today was NYSE new highs minus new lows, which showed 119 more new lows. On a cumulative basis, this metric appears to be rolling over, although it’s still early, and such patterns have reversed in the past. In the S&P and broader cash markets, the index continues to hold together by finding support where it can. Currently, key support lies around 6,030, while resistance remains near 6,100.Looking ahead, tomorrow brings the Fed meeting. Implied volatility in this meeting is relatively low, with one-day IV at 13.5. This number is likely to climb as we approach the meeting and then fall after the press conference begins, creating that volatility crush and potential SPX spike higher.Today’s retail sales data was solid, yet the 10-year yield remained flat, finishing just a little lower. What’s particularly notable is the global rates setup, especially in the UK and Japan. British 10- and 30-year yields are approaching big levels last seen during the fall of 2022 and summer of 2023. We are now back to the highs reached during the September 2022 “mini-budget” turmoil under Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng. If tomorrow’s UK CPI data comes in hot, it could delay BOE rate cuts and push yields higher.Similarly, Japanese 10-year JGBs are near their highs and appear poised to break out. This suggests the bond market is pricing in a potential rate hike from the BOJ on Thursday—something that would defy expectations of inaction. If global rates continue rising, particularly in the UK and Japan, U.S. 10-year yields could follow suit, as global markets are highly interconnected.Lastly, financing costs for equity exposure are becoming increasingly expensive. Today, January contracts for the BTIC S&P 500 Total Return Futures settled at 227 basis points above Fed funds rates, while March contracts closed 180 basis points above. December contracts, meanwhile, sit at 121.5 basis points. The January contracts are now trading 105 points above December, and March contracts are trading 47.5 points below January. These levels suggest some of the highest financing costs for equity exposure since 2008. I hope to share more visualized data on this tomorrow.Have a great night, and I’ll see you soon!-MikeCharts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment. To hear more, visit www.themarketchronicle.com

The Market Chronicles is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.The S&P 500 finished the day about 38 basis points higher. It had been up earlier, reaching a peak of around 55 basis points. The index climbed to approximately 6,085, filling the gap from the December 12th opening. That level acted as resistance for most of the afternoon.However, market breadth was weak, with more decliners than advancers. In the S&P 500, about 320 stocks closed lower, while 182 finished higher. This trend has persisted for some time. Decliners also outpaced advancers on the NYSE.(BLOOMBERG)As a result, the RSP, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, finished the day down 33 basis points. This marks a continuation of a recent trend, with the RSP down about 4% from its high on November 24th. The index broke an uptrend that had formed on August 5th, connecting with the November 5th lows. It has now fallen out of its prior trading channel.Another notable development today was the VIX index, which rose to around 14.70. The VIX has been trending higher since its December 6th low, driven by increasing realized volatility. Historically, low levels of realized volatility make it difficult for the market to move significantly higher or lower without a subsequent increase in volatility. Today, 10-day implied volatility rose to 8.08, while 20-day implied volatility was 6.63—still very low historically.The implied correlation index increased to about 8.5, a modest rise of 30 basis points but a very low reading overall. Rising implied correlation and volatility often coincide with market peaks and reversals.Looking at the S&P 500 gains, Broadcom and Tesla were the primary drivers. Broadcom accounted for about 53% of the day’s gains, climbing 11%, while Tesla contributed 35% with a 6% rise. On the downside, NVIDIA declined, contributing 25% of the day’s losses(BLOOMBERG)Tesla is seeing a sharp rise in implied volatility, which could pose challenges. The skew has flipped negative, with 105% moneyness one-month implied volatility levels now exceeding 95% moneyness levels, indicating high demand for calls. At these levels, call trading becomes less profitable. For example, today, Tesla’s most active options were Friday’s $500 strike calls, priced at about $4. For holders to profit, the stock would need to rise to $504 by expiration—about 7–9% above its closing price of $465–470. If the stock doesn’t rally enough, these options will expire worthless.This dynamic may lead to a reversal as call traders unwind positions and market makers adjust their delta hedges. The increasing cost of leverage, reflected in the widening spreads of S&P 500 total return futures, further complicates the outlook. January contracts are now trading 78.5 points higher than December contracts, while March contracts trade 43 points below January. Rising financing costs for these futures add to the market strain.Interest rates didn’t move much today, but tomorrow’s retail sales data could shift focus back to rates. A hotter-than-expected number could trigger a spike in yields, while a weaker number might lead to a sharp decline.Overall, significant undercurrents in the market suggest growing strain beneath the surface. While mainstream sentiment remains bullish, it is important to consider the less visible dynamics at play are essential.Have a great evening, and we’ll see you again soon.-MikeCharts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment. To hear more, visit www.themarketchronicle.com

See Holiday Specials: The Market Chronicles is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.We have a hectic week ahead. The Fed meeting is on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan meeting on Wednesday night and Thursday morning in Japan. We’ll also get retail sales on Tuesday and PCE on Friday. A lot is happening this week. After that, there won’t be much activity for the rest of the year. Whatever impressions the market takes away this week will likely drive the final weeks of trading until we head into 2025.The yield curve has begun to steepen. I posted a video over the weekend discussing the yield curve, which you can find on my YouTube channel. In particular, the 2-10 spread has been widening again. Based on the chart in the write-up, it appears to be forming a bull flag. If that projection plays out, the 2-10 spread could widen to around 85 basis points. This is something to watch closely, especially if the Fed can’t cut rates as much as people expect due to persistent inflation and a relatively stable job market. In that scenario, we’re likely to see a bear steepener, where the 10-year rises relative to the 2-year, driven by higher rates on the long end of the curve.Interestingly, the real yield curve (based on TIPS) is already positive across the entire curve. That’s an important development. The nominal curve is still inverted, but it’s moving closer to being positive, with the 10-year minus the 3-month Treasury bill turning positive recently. This breakout could lead to a spread as wide as 114 basis points.The way this steepening unfolds is critical. If the steepening comes from the 10-year rising, it could be problematic for risk assets due to higher long-term rates.Liquidity strains are also becoming apparent in the market. Last week, we discussed deteriorating euro basis swap spreads, euro spreads, and 10-year SOFR spreads. U.S. dollar/Japanese yen swap spreads are also showing signs of stress, indicating tighter liquidity. Central banks globally, engaging in quantitative tightening, are straining dealer balance sheets. This pressure is reflected in metrics like the New York Stock Exchange advance-decline line, which has been declining, as well as the equal-weight S&P 500, which isn’t performing well.In the S&P 500 total return December futures contracts (BTIC), carrying costs are rising, particularly for January and March contracts, while December contracts have declined. The spread between January and December contracts has widened to 55 basis points, signaling increased carrying costs. Additionally, March contracts are trading 26 basis points below January contracts, which could indicate backwardation and rising liquidity strain.Cycles are also playing a role in the market narrative. The 10-year Treasury futures are coming out of a 195-week cycle bottom, which took the form of a lengthy consolidation. This suggests the 10-year rate could reach a new high in this cycle, potentially surpassing the 5% peak from October 2023. (CYCLES.ORG)A similar cycle is playing out in the dollar index, which appears to be turning upward after a 180-week cycle bottom. The dollar index could rise past its October 2023 highs.(CYCLES.ORG)Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is nearing a 180-week cycle peak, which may signal a period of sideways movement or a decline heading into 2025. Historically, these cycles have aligned well with market peaks and troughs, such as in 2000, 2007, and 2021. This suggests we’re heading into a period of stronger dollar, higher rates, and potentially weaker equity markets as we approach 2025.(CYCLES.ORG)I hope you found this helpful. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and follow me. You can find more of my work on The Market Chronicles website or my YouTube channel. Take care, and see you Monday!-MikeCharts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment. To hear more, visit www.themarketchronicle.com

The Market Chronicles is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.The S&P 500 fell today by about 50 basis points, with the NASDAQ down roughly 65 basis points. PPI came in slightly hotter on the headline numbers, but as I reviewed with members earlier, if you strip out the components that feed into the PCE report, nearly all of those metrics were lower than last month. This has led some analysts to believe that core PCE may not be as strong as previously anticipated, which helped push yields slightly lower to start the day.This morning, The ECB rate decision caused rates in Europe to fall, as the statement was interpreted as dovish. However, following the press conference, rates in Europe rose sharply. Notably, the Italian-German 10-year spread increased by about seven basis points to 1.13%. This move may have received little attention, but it is significant. Spreads tend to move in tandem, and the Italian-German spread reaching levels last seen in late 2021 or early 2022 is noteworthy. Today’s considerable increase could signal the beginning of a bottoming process in credit spreads.European rates closed higher, with Italian 10-year yields rising by 14 basis points and German 10-year yields by seven basis points. U.S. 10-year yields also rose following a weaker-than-expected 30-year auction, ending the day at around 4.33% to 4.34%. This level is essential, as the 10-year yield closed just above a key trendline and horizontal support at 4.34%, suggesting a potential breakout toward 4.75%. Over the long term, nominal 10-year yields could trend as high as 6%.We’ll get import-export price data tomorrow, with retail sales coming Tuesday and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to announce a rate cut, but the dot plot may lean more hawkish, potentially pushing rates higher.U.S. two-year inflation swaps rose by one basis point to 2.61% today. While still below 2.7%, a sustained rise above that level could shift market expectations toward potential rate hikes in 2025 rather than cuts. Two-year inflation swaps have historically been a leading indicator of Fed policy direction.The U.S. dollar strengthened by 34 basis points today, with key resistance on the dollar index at 107.25. A breakout above this level could push the dollar index back toward 109, a significant move, as the dollar has not been above 107.25 since late 2022.In equities, the S&P 500 declined by 54 basis points, with market breadth showing continued weakness. The relative strength index (RSI) is trending downward, and the advance-decline line is falling, suggesting liquidity strains are beginning to appear in equity markets. Support for the S&P 500 lies around 6,000, with additional support at 5,860 to 5,690. Resistance may be near the upper Bollinger Band at approximately 6,150.I will be back on Sunday.MikeCharts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment. To hear more, visit www.themarketchronicle.com

  To hear more, visit www.themarketchronicle.com

The Market Chronicles is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Today, we saw the S&P 500 fall by about 60 basis points, while the Nasdaq 100 declined by approximately 85 basis points. Nvidia was the leading stock, dropping 2.5% after China launched a monopoly probe into the company. Nvidia accounted for about 25% of the decline in the Bloomberg 500 indexes, which serve as proxies for the S&P 500.U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose slightly, closing at around 4.20%, up by about five basis points. The dollar index also gained, rising by roughly 20 basis points. Two-year inflation swaps increased slightly to 2.56%, continuing to hover within the 2.55%–2.60% range seen in recent weeks. These levels remain a focus as we approach Wednesday’s CPI report. Current expectations are for a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a 2.7% year-over-year rise—both slightly higher than October’s readings. Core CPI is projected to remain in line with the previous month at 0.3% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year. Additionally, we’ll receive PPI data on Thursday and import/export price data on Friday, making this a key week for inflation indicators.Credit spreads widened slightly, with CDX high-yield spreads increasing by 3.5 points to 292 basis points. While still depressed, these levels are worth monitoring for potential shifts in market sentiment.The one-month implied correlation index rose nearly 2 points to just over 10, still at low levels but trending higher. Other volatility metrics followed suit, with the VIX climbing 1.5 points to 14.20. Realized volatility also ticked higher, with 10-day realized volatility closing up about 1 point to 7 and 20-day volatility rising to 8. These moves suggest that volatility, while still relatively subdued, is beginning to show signs of life as the market remains range-bound.On the technical side, the S&P 500 tested significant support at 6,050, filling a gap created on December 4. The index broke out of a diamond reversal pattern, signaling the potential for further declines. A break below 6,050 could pave the way to 6,000 or lower, where additional gaps remain. The broader concern lies with the rising wedge pattern since August, which appears to be nearing its conclusion.Similar conditions persist in the Nasdaq, where the rising wedge pattern also appears close to resolution. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether the market breaks lower.Have a great evening, and see you next time!-MikeCharts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer’s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer’s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer’s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment. To hear more, visit www.themarketchronicle.com

Audio Update only To hear more, visit www.themarketchronicle.com