The Political Notebook

William F. Buckley was the founder of modern American conservatism. In this episode, we talk about how Buckley fused together a conservative coalition while also drawing the boundaries that defined the movement. How did Buckley deal with the John Birch Society, and how does this compare to how Kevin Roberts today is dealing with Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes? Is there any hope for traditional conservatives to regain political significance in the modern era?

Republicans are blaming Katie Hobbs for the condition of the state economy and the state budget. Fair or foul? *** Links: - Robert Robb column on Hobbs's narrow political playing field (https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/hobbss-narrow-political-playing-field) - Go big on civics education (https://chollaexpress.substack.com/p/go-big-on-civics-education)

Can a Reagan conservative win a primary in the MAGA Republican Party?

How are the Democrats doing in opposition? What about Kelly and Gallego?

What are the political and practical consequences of Trump's on-again off-again tariffs? Is Karrin Taylor Robson the new Martha McSally?

Are Trump and the U.S. Senate headed for conflict? Can divided government in Arizona produce results? Links: "The beginning of the end of U.S. leadership of the free world" https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/the-beginning-of-the-end-of-us-leadership "A big GOP win, but not really a mandate" https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/a-big-gop-win-but-not-really-a-mandate "Politics Will Return, Part 2" https://thedispatch.com/article/politics-will-return-part-2/

Kathy Petsas is a long-time Republican activist in Arizona. She was recently featured in a book about how the MAGA movement has taken over the Republican Party at the ground level. Kathy shares her first-hand experience dealing with MAGA true believers who started showing up in waves to precinct meetings in 2021. We also discuss the defining characteristics of MAGA movement, and how MAGA's ideology is different from conservativism. The book is titled "Finish What We Started: The MAGA Movement’s Ground War to End Democracy" Link: https://www.amazon.com/Ground-Game-MAGA-Movements-America/dp/0316497517

What are Harris and Trump's end game strategies? Will they work? What would be the effect of a Lake loss on the future of the Republican Party?

Does Lake really have it wrapped up? Can a Haley conservative win a Republican primary for Congress? What's at stake in the GOP primaries for County offices?

What should be done for housing affordability? What is happening with the Prop 123 extension? Show notes: - Robert Robb column on the Starter Home Act: https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/hobbss-veto-message-inadvertently - Column on Prop 123: https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/refer-a-simple-clean-permanent-state - Column on Katie Hobbs triangulating against MAGA: https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/hobbs-channels-clinton-bill-that - The Dispatch article on YIMBY momentum: https://thedispatch.com/newsletter/capitolism/yimbys-are-winning-local-housing-battles-but-can-they-win-the-national-housing-war/

What's next for Arizona and the country? *** Show notes: *** - Robert Robb column on Sinema and Haley: https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/sinema-haley-and-the-end-of-hope - Tim Steller column on Sinema: https://tucson.com/news/local/tim-stellers-column-sinemas-self-indulgent-senate-term-doomed-her/article_08ccdf9e-dbe5-11ee-8d05-cf89651b7f4e.html - Arizona Republic Editorial on Sinema: https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/editorial/2024/03/06/kyrsten-sinema-reelection-consequential-senate/72857151007/ - The Summit, hosted by Tucker Carlson (Kari Lake appearance starts at 8:24:44, after Nikki Haley's interview with Tucker): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuAGkW4KOEw

Will Lake have a pragmatic conservative opponent? What about the MAGA melee in congressional district 8?

Is the new right's critique of market capitalism any sounder than that of the left? Is it realistic for populist conservatives to beat liberals in seizing and exercising government power? *** Links: "In Defense of the American Free Market" -- The Optimistic American podcast -- Paul Johnson interviews Robert Robb Audio: https://optamerican.podbean.com/e/in-defense-of-the-american-free-market-robert-robb/ Video: https://youtu.be/BiSIOvTQhwU

Is there anything that can happen between now and the convention to shake his hold on primary voters? Should Trump opponents consolidate behind a single candidate? Should that be DeSantis?

Who gets the blame if there's a state government shutdown? Can there be a bipartisan approach to the housing shortage?

Is Hobbs going to govern as a moderate? Does Sinema have a chance as an independent? Will the Republican MAGA fever ever break?

Are there any legitimate arguments against Prop 308? How is the immigration issue playing generally in the 2022 election? *** Show Notes: *** Op-Ed by Fred DuVal: "Arizona doesn't have to be the SB 1070 state. Proposition 308 can right many wrongs" https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/2022/10/11/prop-308-gives-dreamers-equal-opportunity-state-tuition/8199900001/

How will the failed referendum play in the 2022 election? What reforms of the current law might be considered? Are district and charter schools being treated fairly? *** Show notes: *** Robert Robb column: "Referendum failure dramatically changes the politics of universal private school vouchers." https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/the-political-notebook-93022 *** Billy Robb on state testing: "Proficiency and its discontents: Could you pass the AASA?" https://chollaexpress.substack.com/p/proficiency-and-its-discontents

All about water policy. Where does our water supply come from? Who has the rights to use water from the Colorado River? What happens as the drought gets worse? Do we need a new source of water, such as a desalination plant? *** Show notes: *** Robert Robb column (3/6/2022) https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/robertrobb/2022/03/06/gov-doug-ducey-water-authority-isnt-even-half-baked/9365898002/ *** Grady Gammage Jr. response (3/8/2022) https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/2022/03/08/we-have-time-but-we-need-move-now-big-water-projects/9417805002/

Is the Democratic party moving toward the center? Has Sinema helped or hurt Democratic prospects?

Can Republicans win in Arizona by increasing MAGA turnout? How much can states actually do to secure the border?

Is there any prospect of a counter-revolution to Trumpism in the Republican Party? How should Democrats approach the general election? What happens if the Trump slate wins the general?

How should the state address Covid-related learning losses? What effect are the January 6th hearings having? Links: - Robert Robb on Substack: (https://robertrobb.substack.com/) - Robert Robb post on Covid-related learning loss: (https://robertrobb.substack.com/p/the-political-notebook-72222) - Billy Robb on Substack (https://chollaexpress.substack.com/) - Arizona Agenda post on the Republican Party divide: (https://arizonaagenda.substack.com/p/the-daily-agenda-when-does-reconstruction) - Download the Substack App on your Apple device: (https://on.substack.com/p/substackapp) - Cheney Closing Statement At Select Committee’s Eighth Public Hearing: (https://cheney.house.gov/2022/07/21/cheney-closing-statement-at-select-committees-eighth-public-hearing/)

Is there now a political space in GOP politics to challenge the big lie? Is Joe Manchin rescuing Mark Kelly? Subscribe to Robert Robb on Substack: https://robertrobb.substack.com/

Subscribe to Robert Robb on Substack: https://robertrobb.substack.com/ On this episode of the podcast, we talk about the new school voucher law in Arizona. How will the upcoming political fight play out? Also: Should Ducey endorse Robson?

Also: Should independent voters choose a Democratic or Republican ballot? Links: Arizona Agenda: What candidates for Gov, SOS and AG say about 2020 election (https://arizonaagenda.substack.com/p/cheatsheet-what-candidates-for-gov?s=r) Arizona Republic Editorial: Where's the choice? (https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/editorial/2022/06/05/arizona-primary-races-senate-governor-legislature-secretary-state-show-dysfunction/9706589002/) Robert Robb column: Arizona desperately needs a non-Trump GOP candidate (https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/robertrobb/2022/06/05/arizona-desperately-needs-non-trump-gop-candidate-georgia-lesson/7487615001/) Arizona Mirror: Arizona’s independents are largely powerless in primary elections (https://www.azmirror.com/2022/06/06/arizonas-independents-are-largely-powerless-in-primary-elections/) Abe Kwok column: Independent voters have a lot of power in Arizona's primary election – if they show up (https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/abekwok/2022/06/05/independent-voters-could-change-primary-election-if-they-show-up/7488913001/)

Will swing voters be more influenced by their dissatisfaction with the Biden administration or their antipathy toward Trump?

Will bad blood keep a grand bargain from being reached? Is Kari Lake unstoppable in the Republican primary?

A review of school choice in Arizona and a discussion of its future.

Why isn't any Republican candidate following the Youngkin path? Is there any chance for win-win policies in the Arizona legislature? Also: What Europe owes the Ukrainian people.

A conversation with Matt Beienburg about the value of American federalism. Can it be reclaimed? Robert Robb is pessimistic. Matt is more of an optimist. Matt Beienburg is the Director of Education Policy at the Goldwater Institute. He also serves as director of the institute’s Van Sittert Center for Constitutional Advocacy. Here's a link to read Matt's article on federalism, discussed on the podcast: https://www.realclearpublicaffairs.com/articles/2021/11/17/its_time_to_reclaim_american_federalism_803955.html

How will the education issue play in Arizona’s 2022 election? What are the prospects for backpack funding? Where in the heck is Arizona on income taxes?

Sinema as an independent? A new conservative party? Primary election reform?

From running as a conservative reformer to governing as a pragmatic problem solver to thumping the cultural issues on behalf of Republican governors nationally ... who is the authentic Ducey?

By funding the Arizona “audit” what do Trump conspiracy advocates expect? Can Ken Bennett make it semi-honest? Can any Republican candidate be trusted? Robert Robb columns for reference: On the difference between Michigan's election review and Arizona's farce https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/robertrobb/2021/07/16/michigan-election-review-responsible-arizona-audit-farce/7983475002/ Trump visit spotlights continuing complicity of Arizona Republican leaders https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/robertrobb/2021/07/28/trump-visit-spotlights-continuing-complicity-arizona-republican-leaders/5389925001/

An early grade for Biden. Sinema’s filibuster pickle. Arizona Democratic prospects in 2022.

A discussion of the factors driving the teacher shortage in Arizona. For reference: https://chollaexpress.substack.com/p/why-is-there-a-teacher-shortage-in

Tax cuts or tax reform? Also: Can charter schools attract the support of Democrats?

Should Trump be impeached? How do Republicans deal with Trumpism from this point forward?

How alarmed should we be about Trump's attempts to overturn the election results? What will it mean for the future of the Republican Party -- both in Arizona and nationally?

Does Biden have a mandate other than not being a jerk? What happened to the blue wave -- nationally and in Arizona?

What are the consequences if Prop 208 passes? What are the consequences if Prop 208 fails? Also, do we need new ways to teach in a Covid environment?

A breakdown of the campaigns of Martha McSally and Mark Kelly. Also, a preview of the possible legal fights surrounding the 2020 election. Are judges helping or hurting the confidence that Americans will have in the results?

Should we trust the polls? Can Trump ride the law and order issue to an upset victory? Can McSally turn the tide on Kelly?

Discussion of propositions 207 and 208 on the November ballot.

Something a bit different. A collection of previously recorded conversations around the theme of congressional dysfunction and the imbalance of powers. Structural reforms, including the filibuster rule and term limits, as well as immediate calls to action.

Trump says he will substantially reduce troops in Afghanistan before the election. Will he? What will be the consequences? Plus key takeaways from the primary election. Is Schweikert in trouble?

-After Trump's tweet about delaying the election, Republicans swiftly rejected the notion. Is this a sign of a larger shift? -Covid-19 in Arizona: Should there be firm metrics for reopening, particularly for schools? -Arizona primaries: What will Daniel McCarthy's primary vote be, and what will it mean for McSally?

The teacher says yes, the pundit has his doubts. Also: Will the court strike down some of the state ballot initiatives? How much can be squeezed into a 100-word summary?

Does McSally have anything to fear from McCarthy? Will lack of competition leave Mark Kelly unprepared?