The Tanmay Edge | India's pre-market edge 5 minutes, every trading day.

Three sessions ago, 24000 was the resistance. Tuesday it became 23500. Smart money does not slide a level 500 points lower in one session because they are predicting a move. They do it because they are reacting to one. And what they are reacting to is buyers waiting underneath.In Episode 38 of The Tanmay Edge, I walk you through exactly what happened on Tuesday, why the macro lane is firing, what the institutional positioning is telling us, and where I am buying with hedges on the next dip.Tuesday close. Nifty 23379.55 down 1.83 percent. Sensex 74559.24 down 1.92 percent. India VIX up to 19.26 . 24 basis points below the 19.50 regime gate. Brent crude crossed 107 dollars overnight. Rupee broke a fresh record low at 95.6300, snapping through the 95.50 trigger line. The macro lane is firing for the third session while the US sits at record highs. The decoupling is real.The Pro FII Client breakdown is where the real signal lives. Professional trading desks added 154000 MORE call shorts at 23500 in ONE day, going from minus 30000 to minus 184000 net calls. They also trimmed long puts from 249000 down to 186000 . profit taking on the floor break but stayed defensively long puts. FII covered some calls and added 63000 more long puts. Retail clients added 105000 MORE long calls and stayed short 7 lakh puts. Wrong side three sessions in a row.The levels in plain language. 23500 is the new resistance . Pro stacked 3.3M call shorts here. 23200 is the first support test . buy zone only with hedge in place. 23000 is the deep structural floor . heaviest single put strike on the chain at 4.39M contracts. The 20 day moving average just broke. The 50 day at 23550 matches resistance. The 100 day at 23200 matches the first support. The 200 day at 23000 matches the deep floor. When chart and chain agree, the levels are real.My POV. Buy on dips with hedges. Hedges are MANDATORY not optional. The dip I want is 23200 to 23300 with the 23000 put long as the floor hedge. Buy zone exits at 23500. If 23500 breaks with conviction, runway opens to 23800 and then back to 24000. Sharp reversal toward 24000 sets up once Brent breaks below 103 or rupee back below 95. Until either fires, defensive with conviction.RupeeCase Nifty 10 . my systematic portfolio. Tuesday alpha plus 0.80 percent. Strategy down 0.82 percent versus Nifty down 1.62 percent. ONGC up 4.70. HINDALCO up 1.86. The defensive metals and energy tilt absorbed the bleed. Track every position live on rupeecase.com.The Tanmay Edge drops 8:30 AM IST every trading day. Stream free on rupeecase.com. Available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube.#TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #FII #DII #ProTrading #DerivativesIndia #PreMonthly #OptionsChain #RupeeCase

Brent cracked 105 overnight. The escalation lane fired. GIFT Nifty opened down 117. India 10Y bid 7 basis points. Yesterday Pro flipped net calls from 58737 long to 30428 short in one session. The wall at 24000 multiplied 6x in a single day. The chain wrote the pin at 23800 and the fence at 23500.Tuesday is Nifty weekly options expiry. Two trades in one expiry day. Vol first. Pin second. Long gamma morning. Short gamma afternoon. Premium sellers cannot work the first 90 minutes. Pin gravity wins after lunch if 24000 holds.The POV. Buy 23700 PE on a test of 23650 in the first hour. Hold until VIX peaks. Flip to short strangle if spot recovers to 23800 by 12:30. Cover before 15:00 IST. The 24000 wall caps the rip. The 23500 floor catches the fall. Pro defends the wall. The chain runs the pin.Education today. Expiry day is two markets. Not one. The morning belongs to gamma. The afternoon belongs to theta. When you know which market you are in, you know which trade pays. Today is hard because both markets show up in 6 hours.Streaming free on rupeecase.com. India's first systematic investing terminal.Source. NSE BhavCopy 11-May-2026.

The Iran tail came back. Brent jumped 3.31 percent over the weekend from 101.29 Friday settle to 104.65 Monday open. GIFT Nifty 24060.50 down 179 puts spot near the 24000 floor on the first tick. The wing the chain priced Friday is about to pay this morning.The chain wrote 6111545 contracts at 24200 in one session Friday. Two walls 24500 and 25500 one thousand points apart. Three floors 24000 23500 23000 with the deepest built biggest. ATM 24200 straddle 291.30 prices a 23812 to 24540 four-day Mon-Tue range. GIFT opens 248 above wing floor.POV stays buy on dips with hedge. Expected IV up. Long gamma day rule. Stand down on premium selling until VIX cracks back below 17. Buy zone 23950 to 24050. Hedge 12-May 23800 PE.Three branches first hour. Base 50 magnet test. Escalation 35 floor break to 23812 with 23000 ultra-deep as live test. De-escalation 15 Brent below 100 by noon.RupeeCase Nifty 10 rebalance day. Last reshuffle 33 bps Day-1 alpha. Track live on rupeecase.com.Pro then FII then Client positioning order. Bank Nifty futures basis at open is the cleanest tell.Streaming free on rupeecase.com plus Apple Spotify Amazon Music YouTube.#StockMarket #Nifty50 #Sensex #BankNifty #Brent #IranTail #FII #DII #OptionChain #Hedge #LongGamma #IV #RupeeCase #SystematicInvesting #TheTanmayEdge

Yesterday's EP34 pin trade paid 5 for 5. Sensex 77,844 inside the 78,000 magnet by 44 points. Pin held. Wing held. Bank Nifty held. Best card S2 has produced.Then I opened the next-week chain. The wall doubled across 24,400 to 25,400. The floor slid down 500 points to 23,500. The pin moved up 50 points to 24,300 to 24,400. The chain priced a 5-day range of 23,924 to 24,776.Then Brent reclaimed 100 overnight. Plus 4 dollars 34 cents. Asia cooled. Dollar Index firmed. The chain priced calm. The tape printed something else.POV today: buy on dips continues. 24,000 is the level. Pro added 1.30 lakh long puts in one session, FII pressed all 3 legs short, Bank Nifty stays the lone long. Two desks, two tilts. And vol spike expected throughout the day, which means the wing isn't a hedge today. The wing is the trade.Plus this episode: education on why a wing buys vol expansion, not floor breaks. The two trades look the same. They are not the same trade.Streaming live on rupeecase.com. Apple Podcasts. Spotify.

Sensex expiry day. The chain has voted: pin 78,000, floor 77,500, cap 78,500.FIIs are sitting on 1,94,099 short index futures contracts. The market gave them a +1.22% rally yesterday — they covered 4,014. Two percent. The squeeze hasn't started.Global tape firing — Nasdaq +2%, Nikkei +5.67%, Europe +2% across the board. GIFT Nifty +170 pts implied gap-up to ~78,500. Crude collapse holds at $101. Rupee strengthened. Yields fell 10 bps — the rate-cut signal is hard-coded.POV: buy on dips. Watch the broader market — mid and small caps are where the real money is moving today.10 minutes. Every trading day.

Yesterday I called the pin at 24000. Nifty closed 24051. Inside the zone by 51 points. Today the wall fails.Brent cracked 5 dollars 73 cents overnight to 108.03. KOSPI ripped plus 5.87 percent on the Children's Day return. Hang Seng flipped green. GIFT Nifty up 193 points to 24303 = implied gap plus 252 above Tue close.Pro three legs bullish into the close (covered 19394 short calls, added 5634 futures longs, cut 39440 long puts).FII three legs bearish (added 5561 fresh shorts, wrote 20918 short calls, stacked 31059 long puts).Client three legs same side as Pro (long futures, long calls, short puts trapped).The 24300 wall was 12.61 million CE OI built plus 7.22 million Monday alone. The biggest single day call OI build of the May series. With Brent crack today, that wall is sticky paper not defense. Magnet 24000. Buy zone 24100 to 24200. Wall 24300. Next stop 24500.POV. Buy on dips. Continue with cheap hedges. Breaking 24300 most likely. Next stop 24500.Streaming live on rupeecase.com. Apple Podcasts. Spotify. Amazon Music. YouTube.I am building RupeeCase. India's first systematic investing terminal.You just got earlier.Streaming live on rupeecase.comApple Podcasts: linkSpotify: linkAmazon Music: linkYouTube: linkTwitter: @TanmayKurtkoti#TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #ProVsFII #SensexExpiry #1DTE #OptionsTrading #FII #DII #PinTrade #BreakoutTrade #RupeeCase #IndianMarkets #DerivativesIndia

The market gives you two trades from the same chain. Yesterday's wing paid. Today's pin pays. Same desks. Same open interest. Different strikes doing different work.In this episode I walk through what happened in the last 18 hours. Brent jumped 5 dollars overnight. The rupee broke 95. Hang Seng flipped negative. Yet the chain still wants to settle at 24000. Why? Because Pro wrote calls AND held futures long AND trimmed puts in the same session. That is not a desk getting bearish. That is a desk getting paid for the pin.I will explain it in plain English. I will give you the buy zone, the magnet, the cap, the wing. I will give you five predictions you can grade by close. And I will end on the rebalance reveal you have been waiting for since yesterday.Education today is on pin trade mechanics. When the same strike has heavy calls AND heavy puts, that strike is a magnet. When only calls are heavy, that strike is a wall. Yesterday wrote both. Today pays the magnet.The market always telegraphs. You just have to know where to look.You just got earlier.India's first systematic investing terminal that I am building. Streaming live on rupeecase.com.

Three days off the screen. The 76750 PE wing under Thursday's short straddle paid 492 points intrinsic at the intraday low and expired worthless at close. The straddle writer kept 210 points net premium and walked through the Hormuz tail without forced cover. That is the wing-paid mechanic.Asia came in hot Monday. KOSPI plus 3.93. Taiwan plus 4.02. Hang Seng plus 1.58. Brent backed off the Hormuz peak from 121 to 108 on Iran peace talks. Branch trigger of Brent above 125 by Monday EOD: unfired.Tuesday is Nifty weekly expiry. Pin thesis lives. IV at 15.29 percent is the cheapest front weekly of season two. Pro index futures plus 142365 deepened long. FII covering grind continues from peak short minus 288354 to current minus 171608. Client max bullish trapped on short puts.Stream the show live on rupeecase.com. India's first systematic investing terminal that I am building.Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube. Hit follow.#TheTanmayEdge #RupeeCase #NiftyExpiry #Options #FII #Hormuz

The Sensex 30-April future closed Wednesday at 77,444 — an 80-point discount to spot 77,525, on a green-day expiry-eve. That doesn't happen unless institutional money is committed to the pin.The pin is at 77,300 ATM. Straddle 596.85. IV crushed to 15.52%. One standard deviation times 1.25 wings: 76,750 and 78,242. Sell the 77,300 ATM straddle with 76,750 PE and 78,000 CE wings. If the pin holds, you collect 250-300 net premium by 3:30.Why it holds. Brent cooled overnight from $117.13 to $111.67 — the macro overhang is unwinding. Fed came in quiet, US closed flat post-Powell. GIFT mild gap-down. Asia mixed. No regional cascade flowing into the pin.Backstop. Yesterday's Nifty regime change — 24,200 broke at the high, but writers migrated the wall to 24,500 with 2.46 million fresh call OI AND flipped 24,200 to a put-defended floor with 2.64 million fresh put OI in the same session. Textbook regime change. Nifty floor 24,000-24,200 means no Nifty crash flowing into Sensex.Pro positioning, FII pair trade, Client crowd. Pro index calls flipped from -9810 short Tuesday to +56,652 long Wednesday — 66,462 contract reset in one session. Directional tell of the week. FII pair ratio 4.83:1 still load-bearing — short index futures hedging an 8.29 lakh contract long stock book.POV locked: buy on dips with hedge, mean-reverting tape works both ways. Hedge is mandatory. IV at 15.52% means cheap protection three to four times less than at VIX 25.Plus thirty-episode milestone coda. Drop a rating if this lands.Streaming free on rupeecase.com — India's first systematic investing terminal that I am building.

"The smartest desk on the chain doesn't take a side. It clears the book."Tuesday's monthly expiry printed and Pro went from plus 24000 long futures to plus 900. Sold 95000 net long calls. Both directional legs to flat by the bell. This is not bearish. It is a reset. Day one of May series opens with no smart money tell.The 24000 magnet rebuilt fresh at 7.38 million lines. New put floor 23800. New call wall 24200. May future closed plus 73 premium to spot. The bullish skew rolled into the next cycle even as Pro stepped aside.GIFT Nifty opens plus 115 above the magnet. Brent cooled to 110.43 overnight, did not crack 112. Nasdaq finished cleaner than mid-evening. Asia mixed not red, Hang Seng up 1.09 percent. The setup looks constructive on the surface.Tanmay's view stays buy on dips with hedge. Wars is escalating. Iran is not budging. Crude is going harder on a 7 session run. The dip opportunity will come this week. Stay patient. 24500 upside. 23500 bottom end. Not without protection.Pro re-establishment by Wednesday close is the read of the week.Streaming free on rupeecase.com, India's first systematic investing terminal we are building. Also on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.Pro vs FII vs Client positioning fully broken down with NSE BhavCopy data.

Yesterday on a green day, Pro cut 33000 long puts and FII cut 56000. At IV 15.89. That is not bleed at that vol level. That is conviction.Overnight Brent ripped to 109.38. Asia rolled. GIFT opened minus 93. Right at 24000. The magnet itself.Today is monthly plus weekly Nifty expiry on the same day. The biggest gamma collision of the cycle. A gap-down that lands exactly at the magnet does not make the pin easier. It makes it harder. The pin is not the target anymore. It is a question.WHAT YOU GET:→ The conviction tell. Smart desks tell you what they think not by what they buy but by what they trim. Hedges off at IV 15.89.→ Mon walk-up. Nifty 24092. Vol crushed 6.84 percent on a green day. Writers won fifth straight session.→ Walls migrate. 24200 trimmed 0.48M. 24300 NEW ceiling +1.91M fresh in one session.→ Overnight. Brent +2 dollars in 14 hours. AND gate live 6th session. EU yields up. Asia red. US records held.→ Pro / FII / Client. Pro long futures DOUBLED to 23894. FII pair trade ratio 4.37 to 1 (stock long 9.00 lakh vs index short 2.06 lakh) GROWING. Client trapped third week.→ The 28-Apr chain. 24000 magnet 19.4M lines PCR 2.2. 24050 NEW floor +4.28M. 24100 flip. 24300 NEW ceiling. Range 23827 to 24359.→ FII paradox. FII is not calling a crash. They are insuring a long. Read it that way.→ Honest uncertainty. Less certain today than Mon evening. Branch C materially in play. Maybe 1 in 4. Maybe 1 in 3.→ Playbook. Buy 24000 to 24050 if reclaim above 24050 first 30 min. Hedge 23900 PE. Cap 24300 not 24200. If 24000 breaks no reclaim by 10 AM, no buy. Sit in hedge. Wait 23950.You do not need direction today. You need one level. 24000.LISTEN FREEStream live on rupeecase.comApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube @RupeeCaseFOLLOW @TanmayKurtkoti on X, LinkedIn, InstagramThe traders who win consistently are not smarter. They are earlier. You just got earlier.Have a happy expiry.#TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #MonthlyExpiry #ProvsFII #RupeeCase #OptionsTrading #PinDay #IndianMarkets

Friday the index broke 24,000. Closed at 23,897. Down 275 points. Brent went 106. Rupee touched 94.25. Every WhatsApp group is asking the same question — is this the start of something bigger, or did we see a dead cat bounce?Tomorrow is monthly Nifty expiry — the biggest single gamma day of the cycle. The next 48 hours are going to decide a lot more than just one settlement.In this episode I break down the full positioning data and exactly what I am doing with my own book today.WHAT YOU GET IN 12 MINUTES:→ Global setup. GIFT Nifty +182, US printing fresh records, Brent still climbing, USD/INR holding above 94 with conviction.→ The signature Pro / FII / Client read. Pro doubled long puts adding 65,000 fresh contracts on the sell day. FII pressed shorts deeper instead of covering — but they are also long 8.68 lakh stock futures. Index short is hedging the stock long. It is a pair trade, not a directional bear. Client added 70,000 more short puts on Friday — third week running on the wrong side.→ Cash market story. FII sold 8,827 crore (heaviest single day of April by 2.7x). DII rescued with 4,700 crore. Apr cumulative DII +39,000 cr vs FII -56,000 cr. Handoff intact but every rupee was needed.→ Why the smart money is positioned for VOLATILITY, not direction. They want movement either way.→ The 28-Apr options chain map. ATM straddle 350 with IV at 16.98 — cheapest hedge IV in three weeks. 23,800 put floor (PCR 2.94). 24,000 max-pain magnet (8.56 lakh CE + 6.23 lakh PE stacked). 24,200 iron call wall. Gamma flip 23,950.→ Sector rotation. Energy and Metal Strong Buy, Pharma climbing. CNX IT, Reliance, Auto in Strong Sell. India VIX rated highest signal on the screener.→ Education: the FII paradox. How to read FII shorts the right way by looking at the ENTIRE book.→ My playbook. Buy zone 23,850-23,900. Hedge with 23,900 PE at 165. Pin target Tuesday 24,000. Upside cap 24,200.→ RupeeCase Nifty rebalance day. Energy and Metal weighted up, Pharma rising, IT and Auto out.Buy the dip. Hedge cheap. Sit through Tuesday's volatility. Let the chain pin.LISTEN FREEStream live on rupeecase.comApple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube @RupeeCaseFOLLOW @TanmayKurtkoti on X, LinkedIn, InstagramThe traders who win consistently are not smarter. They are earlier. You just got earlier.#TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #MonthlyExpiry #ProvsFII #RupeeCase #OptionsTrading #SystematicInvesting #IndianMarkets #BuyTheDip

Yesterday 24200 was the pin day. It held for six hours. Then somebody pulled the floor out and we closed at 24173. Twenty-seven points below the line both writers were defending. That wasn't a break from conviction. That was a pin giving up.This morning GIFT Nifty opens at 24247, plus ninety. And the one number I'm watching today is 24250. Above it, we have a trade. Below it, we don't.In this episode:Three overnight stories that shape the open. Infy Q4 headline beat (PAT +21 percent at 8501 crore, revenue +13.4 percent, 500 percent dividend) but a guidance cut to 1.5 to 3.5 percent constant currency and ADR minus 6 percent that confirms the IT de-rating. Oil at 106 dollars for a sixth straight session after Trump ordered the US Navy to engage anything laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Software crushed overnight in the US — IBM minus 8 percent, ServiceNow minus 18 percent on AI disruption.The positioning divergence you need to understand. Pro flipped to long gamma — added 9054 futures long AND doubled their long puts with 114605 fresh in a single session. FII pressed bearish on every leg — 190914 short futures, 246860 short calls, 375470 long puts. Client overloaded long calls and short puts, one miss from forced unwind. DII absorbed 941 crore while FII dumped 3254 crore cash, session three of selling.Levels that matter. 28 April straddle 374.60, one standard deviation 468 points. Market pricing a 24000 to 24600 range by Tuesday expiry. VIX 18.54, IV 17.60 with a 10.3 percent expansion on a down day. 24500 mega call wall at 10.65 million contracts, hardest ceiling of the cycle. 24000 put floor trimmed to 6.97 million. April futures at a 10 point discount to spot, rare conviction bear tell.The plan. Above 24250 on open plus a base build in the first hour = green day. Target 1 at 24400, target 2 at 24500 fade. Below 24250 in the first 30 minutes = flat, not short. Wait 24150 test. If 24150 holds, buy with stop 24100. If 24150 breaks, walk away. Hedge of the day is 24000 or 24050 puts. One rule. No naked anywhere.Plus event-weight mechanics. Why Friday is a one-stock day. How Reliance's 8 percent Nifty weight propagates through the index before the other 49 names even react. The RIL rules. Gap up more than 2 percent = fade. Flat and holds 1360 = accept. Gap down and Q4 in line = buy. Gap down with weak guidance = stand aside.For long-only investors: RupeeCase Nifty rebalance Monday, +Axis Bank +TechM, -SunPharma -DrReddy. Twenty sessions of FII selling has not broken the tape because DII absorbed 77000 crore.Markets don't owe us a direction. They owe us a decision. Today, Reliance gives us one.Stream free on rupeecase.com. Pro versus FII versus Client positioning every session.See you after the chaos on Monday.Connect with Tanmay- X / Twitter: [@TanmayKurtkoti](https://x.com/TanmayKurtkoti)- LinkedIn: [Tanmay Kurtkoti](https://linkedin.com/in/tanmaykurtkoti)- Instagram: [@TanmayKurtkoti](https://instagram.com/TanmayKurtkoti)- Telegram community: [t.me/TanmaysEdge](https://t.me/TanmaysEdge)

Thursday 23 April 2026. Sensex weekly expiry. Infosys Q4 post close. GIFT Nifty gapped down 180 points before the bell. Yesterday the bias was defensive. Today I am taking the other side of that.Episode 25 is the pivot episode. The overnight gap just did the work of the sell rally for me. The chain now says the first hour and the second half are two completely different trades.Pro flipped clean bear in one session. Futures flat. Calls 2 lakh sold. Puts 1 lakh 18000 bought. FII pressed deeper short. Futures minus 1 lakh 83000. Added 9000 shorts. Did not cover. Put book added 345946. Client did what Client does on a day like this. Longed 733000 calls into the fade. Shorted 519000 puts into the breakdown. Maximum wrong side exposure on both legs.On the cash tape, first dual sell day in April. FII sold 2000 crore. DII sold 1050 crore. The buyer of last resort sold too.This is the setup I walk through on tape. Squeeze then relief on a trapped Client book. Short puts squeeze first because they carry unlimited loss in the gap. Long calls fade second because they were on the wrong hedge from day one. Morning is violent. Afternoon is quiet. Close is a mean reversion into the magnet.Sensex 1DTE framework. Spot 78516. ATM straddle 679. One standard deviation 850 points. Real walls on the chain. 79000 major call ceiling. 78500 magnet. 78000 major put floor with PCR 7.4 and gamma minus 2423. We are sitting in the negative gamma zone into the open. Vol is expected to spike.Nifty 28 April cycle. Straddle 360. One standard deviation 451 points. 24500 biggest call wall now acting as resistance. 24300 put wall. 24350 intraday line. IV 16.88 makes hedges cheap if you want to run this longer than a day.Bias shifted overnight. Buy dips with hedge. Not buy the open. Buy the dip after the forced covers finish. Above 24300 Nifty close means mean reversion worked. Below 24200 is trend extension, stand aside.Five point prediction set on record for tomorrow grade. 78000 tests but holds. Second half relief prints. Nifty settles above 24300. Brent stays above 96. Pro trims some shorts into the relief.Prediction trail. EP22 7 of 7. EP23 4 of 7. EP24 1 of 5. EP25 grades Friday.Stream the live version of every metric, live NAV, and the full framework at rupeecase.com/podcast.You don't need more information. You need the right information.Pro vs FII vs Client on every episode. No guessing. Just the chain.

Tuesday's expiry pin failed. 24500 broke clean. The call writers stuck at the wall did not run. That broken ceiling is now the floor.GIFT Nifty 24454 down 121. Brent 98.18 still above 96. USD INR 93.49 still above 93.40. Both wrong side tells armed.FII Cash minus 1918 crore. DII Cash plus 2221 crore. FII still net short 173948 Nifty futures, sold 131k calls and bought 300k puts on a breakout day. Pro is long volatility. Client wrote 380k puts right at the wall. One book is wrong today.Bias: buy on dips with hedge. 24400 to 24500 is the floor zone. Cheap IV after expiry crush makes hedged longs the right structure. Stops below 24350. Target 24500, then 24600. Tomorrow stacks 1DTE Sensex weekly with Infosys Q4 post close.Stream the live data card at rupeecase.com slash podcast.The data doesn't lie. Narratives do

Nifty closed 24364 Monday. Flat on the surface. Underneath, the option chain moved 500 points and IV expanded 48 percent in one session. You do not get that print before a boring expiry.This morning GIFT Nifty is trading 24402, up 60 points. Asia is leading with KOSPI up 2.15, Nikkei up 1.34, Taiwan up 1.90. Europe closed heavy Monday. US futures are mixed. The set up is a gap up into mean reversion.The straddle is 267.45. One standard deviation is 334 points. Expected range today is 24031 to 24699. That is a 668 point band for an expiry day. The market is priced for a move, not a pin.The chain restructured bullish. Put writers walked up from 23000 to 23500 and 23700. Call writers covered 1.27 crore far out of the money contracts and stacked a trap at 24500. Pro flipped back long 3671 futures and doubled their long put book. FIIs sold cash but bought 641 crore of Nifty futures, which is short covering, not fresh shorting. Client is max bullish on futures and max short on puts, which is the contrarian tell.The thesis is simple. Buy on dips. Respect the vol. Expect a big move. 24500 is the trap to fade on first touch. 24200 is the dip to buy. 24000 is the line in the sand.This episode breaks down the overnight setup, the OI migration, the IV mean reversion trade, the institutional positioning, and the RupeeCase Nifty post-rebalance book which just clocked 1.11 percent alpha on day one with AXISBANK and TECHM added.Stream on rupeecase.com. Follow @TanmayKurtkoti for daily market structure.Pro versus FII versus Client read inside.

Pro flipped short Thursday, flipped back bullish Friday. 122000 long calls added, 66000 puts dumped in one session. The fastest reversal in Season 2. FII covering collapsed from 87000 to 5000 a day with 190000 still short. DII sold 8000 crores in 2 days while FII bought cash. Crude whipsawed 102 to 90 to 95 in a week. IV crushed to 14.58%, cheapest options since the tariff shock. The hedge window is open. Buy on dips, hedge the tail. Pro flipped back. FII grinding. Client cautious. Nifty weekly expiry Tuesday 21 Apr.Free on rupeecase.com | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | Amazon Music | YouTube

Pro dumped 93% of their call position in a single session and doubled down on short futures. FII covering collapsed from 87636 to 1729. Crude at $98.13, $1.87 from the March selloff trigger. Call wall fortress at 24300 to 24500 with 98 lakh new OI. Client at maximum bullish while Pro goes conviction short. Full F&O breakdown, the conviction short signal, crude danger zone, Wipro buyback reaction, gamma flip at 24200, and Nifty expiry levels for Monday. The Tanmay Edge, Season 2 EP21. Stream free on rupeecase.com or subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube#TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #FnO #CrudeOil #ProVsFII #StockMarket #Options #RupeeCase #PreMarketLINKS: rupeecase.com Apple Podcasts: [Apple link] Spotify: [Spotify link] Amazon Music: [Amazon link] YouTube: youtube.com/@RupeeCase X: twitter.com/TanmayKurtkoti

Every trading day, before 9:15 AM, Tanmay Kurtkoti gives you the one edge most traders miss before market open.FII covered 87636 index futures shorts in a single session. Season 2 record. Nifty closed 24231 above the 24200 line. Sensex broke 78000 for the first time. But Pro flipped net short at the highs and added 18511 long puts. Client is at max bullish with record short puts. Today is Sensex weekly expiry with ATM straddle at 677 implying 847-point intraday range. GIFT Nifty at 24317. Nikkei +2.45%. S&P above 7000 first time. Pro vs FII vs Client positioning decoded.Tanmay is the founder of QCAlpha Advisors ($75M+ AUM) and RupeeCase — India's systematic quantitative investing terminal. 16+ years in derivatives and quantitative trading including prop desk experience at Religare.No fluff. No filler. Just your edge — before the chaos begins.Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream free on rupeecase.com.Follow on X: @TanmayKurtkoti#TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #Sensex #FII #ProVsFII #WeeklyExpiry #Options #RupeeCase #PreMarket## LINKS- Stream free: https://rupeecase.com- Apple Podcasts: [Apple link]- Spotify: [Spotify link]- Amazon Music: [Amazon link]- YouTube: https://youtube.com/@RupeeCase- X: https://x.com/TanmayKurtkoti

Crude cracked from Mon morning's $102 peak all the way to $94.60. Below pre-shock levels. The Hormuz premium is fully unwound.Nifty opens Wed 15 Apr with a 368 point gap-up implied from GIFT at 24210. And for the first time in weeks, implied volatility is going DOWN on a gap-up day. 21 Apr ATM IV at 20.4, crushed −7.26% from yesterday. The 23800 straddle sits at 587. That is conviction, not panic.The FII book with −286227 index futures shorts at S2 peak is marking-to-market loss every tick above 24000. Options chain is bullish both indices — Nifty PCR 1.089, Sensex PCR 1.198.Sensex weekly expiry is Thursday 16 April. 1 trading day after reopen. Call wall cluster at 77000 and 77300. If gap extends above 77500, pinning setup for straddle sellers.Screener is Strong Buy across Defence, Metal, Energy, Mid Select, Chemicals, Finance, Pharma, Infra. IT is Neutral — the one sector that didn't react to Nasdaq +1.96%.24200 is the line. Close above it = rotation leg higher. Fail = back to 23900-24000 magnetism.Buy on dips continues. Watch volatility. If IV refuses to fall by 11 AM — get careful again.Stream full podcast at https://rupeecase.com#Nifty #Sensex #GIFTNifty #OptionsTrading #DerivativesTrading #FnO #IVCrush #Expiry #StockMarket #IndianMarkets #RupeeCase #TheTanmayEdge #BuyOnDips #Crude #Straddle

Brent crude spiked 7.5% overnight to $102. GIFT Nifty gapped down 335 points to 23,756. FII are sitting on -2,86,227 short contracts — the highest of Season 2 — and those shorts are printing. But the same FII were cash buyers on Friday at +672 Cr. Collar strategy, not panic. Clients are max bullish with -4.89L short puts and +1.43L long futures — all underwater this morning. Pro is flat at +91. GEX shows gamma flip at 24,050, we open 300 points below it in negative gamma. 24,000 strike holds 53L OI — the expiry magnet. Straddle 283, 1SD range 23,646-24,354. VIX will spike early, cool off later. This is a mean-reverting expiry day — negative close, buy the dip for the week. Plus: RupeeCase rebalance mechanics explained. Pro vs FII vs Client positioning breakdown. Stream free on rupeecase.com, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.#TheTanmayEdge #NiftyExpiry #CrudeShock #PreMarket #FII #OptionsData #Nifty #RupeeCase #IndiaMarkets #ProVsFII

FII covered 41,000 shorts in 2 days — then stopped and added 318 back. Client short puts exploded to -4.66 lakh. Screener flipped SELL, IV flipped BUY. Nifty under negative gamma below 23,850. Then TCS drops a 29% QoQ profit beat after hours. Pro vs FII vs Client — the positioning that matters. Plus: why options tell you more than futures when covering pauses. Stream free on rupeecase.com | Apple Podcasts | Spotify

Nifty rallied 874 points yesterday on the Iran ceasefire. FII covered 32,035 futures contracts — biggest single-day unwind in Season 2. Pro flipped to short puts. Client booked profits on 1 lakh short-put contracts as the gap-up played into their long-delta position. But FII is still short 2,27,400. Today is Sensex weekly expiry with an 800-point straddle — implied range 76,600 to 78,600. GIFT Nifty 24,005 this morning, down 94 from yesterday’s close. Asia is taking profits. Brent bounced 2% to $96.78. DXY back above 99. The vol crush from yesterday’s gap continues — IV dropped 41%. TCS Q4 kicks off earnings season. View: buy on dips, sell volatility. RupeeCase Nifty portfolio tracks live on rupeecase.com. Stream free on rupeecase.com, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.LINKS: rupeecase.com | Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #SensexExpiry #FII #ProVsFII #IVCrush #RupeeCase

Trump's Iran ceasefire crashed Brent 13% to $94 overnight biggest single-session crude drop since the 2020 Saudi price war. GIFT Nifty surged 700 points to 23,808. India imports 85% of its oil every $10 drop saves ₹43,000 Cr on the annual import bill, directly reducing inflation and giving RBI room to cut. RBI MPC decision at 10 AM. Pro added 9,459 long contracts with 24,591 protective puts — classic long-but-protected positioning. FII still short 2,59,000 futures contracts, now staring at massive MTM losses. Client added 36,000 more short puts betting on downside when the ceasefire was hours away. Dollar Index below 99. Gold $4,817. Asia ripping Nikkei +5.39%, KOSPI +6%. New 17 Apr chain building, OI is thin, resistance-less. 24,000 is the big psychological level. EP14 predictions: 5 scenarios mapped, 3 tested, all hit. View: long, long options, long volatility. RupeeCase Nifty portfolio tracks live on rupeecase.com. Stream free on rupeecase.com, Spotify, Apple Podcasts.LINKS: rupeecase.com | Apple Podcasts | Spotify | @TanmayKurtkotiHASHTAGS: #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #CrudeCrash #IranCeasefire #RBI #ProVsFII #RupeeCase

Nifty rallied 620 points intraday yesterday, but FII covered just 366 contracts — 0.14% of their short position. Now GIFT Nifty is gapping down below the GEX flip line on weekly expiry day. Tanmay breaks down the V-shape mechanics, the negative gamma setup, and 3 scenarios for Tuesday's high-volatility session.LINKS: rupeecase.com | Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTubeKEYWORDS: Nifty, weekly expiry, FII short, GEX, gamma, V-shape, options, derivatives, pre-market, GIFT NiftyHASHTAGS: #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #FII #WeeklyExpiry #GEX #RupeeCase #PreMarket #Options #IndianMarkets

Last episode, crude spiked 11%, FII sold ₹9,931 Cr, and markets shut for 4 days. I asked: what happens Monday? The answer — GIFT Nifty down just 28 points. Almost flat. Nikkei bounced 904 pts, KOSPI up 2.2%. The bloodbath didn't show up. But FII is still short 2,68,828 futures, clients are still exposed, and VIX sits at 25. I break down the overnight GIFT Nifty recovery, why Pro got it right, the 1DTE straddle setup at 531 Rs, and my trading plan — buy dips toward VWAP 22,500, sell vol with iron flies and credit spreads. Season 2, Episode 13. Monday, 6 April 2026.RSS Metadata:Publish date: Mon, 06 Apr 2026 08:30:00 +0530Episode slug: s2e13-monday-that-didnt-crashLinks:Stream: https://rupeecase.com/podcast/s2e13-monday-that-didnt-crashApple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/in/podcast/the-tanmay-edge/id123456Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/TheTanmayEdgeRupeeCase: https://rupeecase.comnifty, gift nifty, crude oil, FII selling, options trading, iron fly, credit spreads, VIX, VWAP, pre-market analysis, derivatives, KOSPI, straddle, momentum investing, RupeeCase#TheTanmayEdge #PreMarket #Nifty #GIFTNifty #CrudeOil #FII #OptionsTrading #IronFly #CreditSpreads #VIX #VWAP #Derivatives #RupeeCase #TradingIndia #StockMarket

Oil bounced from $101 to $106 overnight. GIFT Nifty crashed 461 points. Clients are sitting on 3 lakh long contracts — and it's Sensex monthly expiry with Good Friday tomorrow.In this episode:→ 48-hour reversal: from gap-up euphoria to overnight crash→ Trump escalation news — attack getting escalated in the next 2 weeks→ Why oil bouncing back kills India's biggest tailwind→ FII short 2.64L contracts and winning — clients trapped long 3L→ Sensex GEX: long gamma day, whipsaw reversals, 72,200-72,800 range→ Nifty range: 22,200-22,700, Call OI wall at 22,700 (23L contracts)→ Defence only Strong Buy — GRSE +20%, Mazagon +13%, Cochin Shipyard +14%→ TK ALGO in sell mode→ Long gamma explained — why VWAP becomes a magnet on expiry→ If you're going long, carry a hedge over the 3-day weekendBad but not that bad. Wars and tension will relax. But today's volatility is real.RupeeCase Nifty — alpha held. Portfolio rebalances Monday.https://rupeecase.comListen free on rupeecase.com | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | Amazon Music | YouTube#TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #Sensex #SensexExpiry #FII #CrudeOil #StockMarket #Trading #Options #LongGamma #RupeeCase

FY27 Day 1 opens with GIFT Nifty +367 at 22,800. Brent crashed from $116 to $105.49, Gold at all-time high $4,694, DXY below 100. Every global index is green — KOSPI +6.26%, Nikkei +4.13%, Nasdaq +3.83%. FII pulled a record -3.36L Cr in derivatives in March. They're massively short. Today's gap-up starts the squeeze. Pro reduced longs. Client is all-in bullish. Full risk-on.Timestamps:0:00 Cold Open — FY27 Day 1 Gap-Up0:35 Global + Commodities — Brent crash, Gold ATH, global rally1:30 Pro/FII/CLI — Record March outflow, positioning squeeze3:00 Options + Levels — Key strikes, OI, GEX4:15 TK Screener + Sectors — Recovery watch, momentum names5:15 Tanmay's Read — Full risk-on, FII squeeze setup6:30 CTAListen free on rupeecase.com | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | Amazon Music | YouTubeLinks:rupeecase.com #TheTanmayEdge #FY27 #Nifty #ProVsFII #BrentCrash #RupeeCase #IndianMarkets #Derivatives #GIFTNifty

The last trading day of FY25-26 and it's ugly. GIFT Nifty gaps down 238 to 22,589. Brent crude crosses 116. Nikkei crashes 4.5%. FII has pulled 1,14,000 crore from India in March. Pro and FII both short while retail sits long. I break down the global carnage, the positioning trap, and the 1 level I'm watching for a bounce. Plus — how the Nifty Momentum 10 on RupeeCase beat the benchmark by over 1% today.Host: Tanmay Kurtkoti Stream free: rupeecase.com00:00 Cold Open — Brent 116, Asia in freefall 00:20 Intro 00:35 Global Markets + Commodities — US, Europe, Asia all red 01:30 Pro / FII / CLI Positioning — Smart money vs the crowd 03:00 Options + Levels — TK Screener, 22,300-22,400 bounce zone 04:15 Screener + Sectors — What's working, what's not 05:15 Tanmay's Read — Last day of FY26, RupeeCase portfolio alpha 06:30 CTA CloseLINKS: Stream free: https://rupeecase.com #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #ProVsFII #RupeeCase #IndianMarkets #FII #BrentCrude #GIFTNifty #SystematicInvesting

Nifty closed at 23,191. GIFT Nifty gaps down to 23,145. Nasdaq sold off 2.38% overnight. But Pro traders are still going long 4th straight session. FII still adding shorts at -2,48,712 contracts. Sectors flipping to Buy inside a Sell signal. Someone's quietly accumulating. Today's read: consolidation, IV crush, buy on dips.Timestamps: [0:00] Cold Open — GIFT Nifty gaps down, but Pro vs FII divergence deepens [0:20] Intro [0:35] Global Cues — Nasdaq -2.38%, Europe all red, GIFT Nifty 23,145 [1:30] Pro/FII/Client — Pro accumulating, FII adding shorts, 4th day of divergence [3:00] Options — 23,000 pivot, 23,300 squeeze trigger, VIX crushing, IV expected to drop [4:15] TK Screener — Sell, BUT IT/Infra/Auto flip to Buy [5:15] Tanmay's Read — Consolidation, buy on dips, 23,000-23,200 zone [6:30] CTATrack the RupeeCase Nifty 50 model live: https://invest.rupeecase.com Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube Stream live: https://rupeecase.com#TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #ProVsFII #OptionsTrading #IndianMarkets #GIFT Nifty #FII #DII #RupeeCase #MarketAnalysis #DerivativesTrading #SwingTrading #BuyOnDips #IVCrush #NiftyOptions #Season2

Crude crashing — Brent -6% to $98. GIFT Nifty above 23,000. FIIs sitting on 2,48,712 shorts — added MORE into ceasefire rally. Sensex expiry at 74,000 GEX flip zone. Full positioning: FII (-2,48,712 short) vs Clients (+1,48,527 long) vs Pros (selling premium). 1 SD ranges: Sensex 73,569–75,031, Nifty 22,712–23,437. IV crush: Sensex ATM 42%→28%. TK Screener rotation (IT, Infra, Auto → Buy). GEX education. 5-min pre-market edge.Timestamps:[0:00] Cold Open — GIFT Nifty above 23K, crude crashing -6%[0:15] Intro[0:30] Global Cues — Crude -6%, Asia ripping, gold $4,583[1:15] FII/DII — Full positioning: FII vs Client vs Pro vs DII[2:15] Options — Sensex 74K expiry + 1 SD ranges + IV crush 42%→28%[3:15] TK Screener — IT, Infra, Auto flip Buy; indices Sell[4:00] Tanmay's Read — GEX education + trending day POV + RupeeCase[4:40] CTALINKS & RESOURCES RupeeCase — India's Systematic Investing Terminal → invest.rupeecase.com The Tanmay Edge — Daily Pre-Market Podcast → Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/in/podcast/the-tanmay-edge/id1795938739 → Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/the-tanmay-edge → RSS Feed: https://media.rss.com/tk-s-pre-market-radar/feed.xml Follow Tanmay Kurtkoti: → Twitter/X: https://x.com/TanmayKurtkoti → Instagram: https://instagram.com/tanmaykurtkoti_ → LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/tanmaykurtkoti → Website: https://rupeecase.com QCAlpha Advisors — Quantitative Trading ($75M+ AUM) → https://qcalpha.com --- If this episode added value — share it with one trader who needs it. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify — never miss a session.Hashtags: #TheTanmayEdge #PreMarket #IndianMarkets #FII #Nifty #Sensex #GammaExposure #SensexExpiry #CrudeOil #IVCrush #RupeeCase #QuantTrading

GIFT Nifty touched 23,500 overnight on ceasefire news — then faded 600 points back to 22,877. The squeeze came and went. It's expiry day, IV is at 55%, and 23,000 is the number everyone is watching.In today's episode: • Global cues — US mixed, crude bounces to $104, Asia modestly green • FII sold -₹10,414 Cr cash (heaviest since 13 Mar) — cumulative selling crosses ₹1 lakh crore • FII shorts deepened to -2,43,961 contracts — squeeze fading at current levels • 23,000 call wall with 74.93L OI — THE expiry pin strike • IV Crush education — why your straddle loses money even when the market moves 400 points • RupeeCase Nifty 50 model held +0.38% alpha through the drawdown — rebalances todayTimestamps: [0:00] Cold Open — Ceasefire fade + 600-point giveback [0:15] Intro [0:30] Global Cues — US mixed, crude bounces to $104, Asia modest [1:15] FII/DII — ₹10,414 Cr selling + shorts at -2,43,961 [2:15] Options — 23,000 call wall, IV crush, expiry pin setup [3:15] TK Screener — All Strong Sell, watching for flip [4:00] Tanmay's Read — IV Crush education + RupeeCase rebalance [4:40] CTA🔗 Track the RupeeCase Nifty 50 model live: invest.rupeecase.com 🎧 Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify#TheTanmayEdge #PreMarketAnalysis #NiftyAnalysis #Nifty50 #OptionsTrading #ExpiryDay #IVCrush #FIIData #DIIData #IndianStockMarket #StockMarketIndia #Ceasefire #GIFTNifty #BankNifty #QuantTrading #QCAlpha #RupeeCase #TanmayKurtkoti #MarketAnalysis #TradingEdge #OptionSelling #GammaExposure #VIX #Season2

Three things happening at once today. GIFT Nifty down 338 points this morning — opening below 23,000. FIIs added shorts for the second straight Friday. And RupeeCase rebalances — right at 23,000.The data: FIIs sold ₹5,518 crores in cash on Friday and added another 5,556 futures shorts. Their net short position is now −2,34,508 contracts — heading back towards the −2,60,540 peak. Cumulative cash selling is approaching ₹1 lakh crore. But DII cash buying was +₹5,706 Cr — almost perfectly absorbing the sell. The 23,000 put OI grew from 6.75 lakh to 7.29 lakh on Friday. Someone is adding protection, not removing it.Tomorrow is the 24-Mar weekly expiry. IV at 22%. Pre-expiry Monday with a gap below 23,000 = one of the most volatile setups of S2. Watch the first 15 minutes carefully. Sharp volatility expected — IV can spike above 28. Long gamma in play.Asia this morning: Nikkei −3.74%, Hang Seng −3.11%, KOSPI −5.29%. Global risk-off. Brent at 112.76. Gold at $4,371. USD/INR at 93.71.RupeeCase rebalances today — the quant model resets at this exact price level. The model outperformed by +0.98% alpha on the worst day of the month. Track the new portfolio at rupeecase.com.→ RupeeCase: rupeecase.com | @TanmayKurtkoti | #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty23000 #Rebalance #FIIData #Expiry24Mar #QCAlpha

Nifty fell 687 points in two days. This morning GIFT Nifty is up 101. Does 23,000 hold and where does the bounce go?The data: FIIs sold ₹7,558 crores in cash yesterday and added back to futures shorts (now -2,28,952 contracts). VIX spiked 21% to 22.74. But this morning Dow futures are up 519 pts and Brent crude is pulling back from $111 to $105 the inflation pressure that triggered Thursday's fall is easing.Today's framework: 23,000 has 6.75 lakh puts written it held yesterday and it's the floor. Weekly VWAP at 23,400 is the first bounce target. Monthly VWAP at 24,000 is the gravitational pull for the 28 March expiry. Clients are still massively long index futures some unwinding pressure is likely in the first 30 minutes. Don't chase the gap up. Range today: 22,800 support, 23,381 upside target.RupeeCase quant fund outperformed by +0.98% alpha yesterday even on the worst day. ONGC was the only green stock. Rebalance on 23 March at 23,000. Track it at rupeecase.com.→ RupeeCase: rupeecase.com | @TanmayKurtkoti | #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty23000 #VWAP #MonthlyClose #QCAlpha

Brent crude surged to $111.59 (+3.92%) overnight — a double negative alongside the banking shock. Asia broadly red: Nikkei -2.53%, Hang Seng -1.60%, Nasdaq -1.46% at US close. This isn't a normal gap down. But it's also not a broad market collapse — it's a single heavyweight stock repricing.The setup: HDFCBANK has ~12.5% weight in Nifty. A 7.5% fall in one stock explains most of the 510-point drop. Once that shock absorbs, 23,400–23,500 is the mean reversion zone. VIX expected to spike to 20+ — long gamma day, buy options, don't sell into the opening. FII short cover trend was 3 days running — watch if they hold or reverse today. That data point tells you everything about the next move.→ RupeeCase: rupeecase.com | @TanmayKurtkoti | #TheTanmayEdge #HDFCBank #NiftyOptions #GapDown #QCAlpha

Bulls won the expiry. Can they hold above 23,600?Yesterday's story: Nifty closed 23,581 (+172 pts), IV crushed 88% on expiry, VIX dropped 8.38% to 19.79. And for the first time in weeks — FIIs bought index futures (+₹1,247 Cr) while still selling cash (-₹4,741 Cr). A small number, but the first crack in the short wall. FII net short position reduced to 2,40,775 contracts.Today's setup: GIFT Nifty +82 at 23,664 signals a moderate gap up straight into 23,600 resistance — where 20 lakh calls are written. Post-expiry consolidation likely between 23,500 and 23,650. Brent crude pulling back from $104 to $102 — constructive for India. Sectors to watch: Auto (Strong Buy), Finance (Strong Buy). Avoid IT. VIX at 19.00 — fear is fading but the trend hasn't reversed yet.→ RupeeCase: rupeecase.com→ Follow on Apple Podcasts + Spotify→ Twitter: @TanmayKurtkoti#TheTanmayEdge #NiftyOptions #FIIData #PostExpiry #IndianMarkets #QCAlpha #RupeeCase #23600

It's expiry day — and Nifty wants to gap up 140 points straight into the 23,500 wall.GIFT Nifty at 23,496. Asia broadly green — KOSPI +2.77%, Hang Seng +1.11%, Taiwan +1.77%. Brent crude still above $100 at $102.95. But don't let the green fool you: FIIs sold another ₹9,365 crores in cash on Monday and are sitting on 2.48 lakh short index futures contracts. The structural sell hasn't changed.In options: 23,500 has 52 lakh calls sold against it — the wall of the day. IV at 26.03 with straddles at ₹410. TK Screener says sell IV today. VIX dropped 4.5% yesterday — panic easing but trend still down. Key levels: 23,500 resistance, 23,300 support, 23,200 secondary. Watch the first 30 minutes.→ RupeeCase: rupeecase.com→ Follow on Apple Podcasts + Spotify→ Twitter: @TanmayKurtkoti

Markets open green — but don't be fooled by the gap.GIFT Nifty is trading 77 points higher at 23,280, up 0.33%, signalling a flat to positive open for Monday. Asian markets are mixed — Nikkei down 1.23%, Jakarta down 2.62%, while Hang Seng and Straits Times are holding slight gains. Dow futures are showing early morning strength after European markets closed marginally negative on Friday.On commodities: Brent crude is trading above the $100 mark at $104, up 1.36%. Gold is cracking — down 0.33% at $5,005 per ounce. MCX gold closed at ₹1,58,400 and silver at ₹2,59,279.The real story is in the FII/DII data. On Friday's cash market close, FIIs sold ₹10,700 crores of equity while DIIs bought ₹9,900 crores — net negative. For the month of March, FIIs have now sold ₹56,000 crores cumulatively. The cumulative yearly figures stand at FII selling of ₹2,67,000 crores vs DII buying of ₹7,67,000 crores — and the gap is worsening.In F&O positioning, clients are holding 1,56,000 long index futures contracts. FIIs are on the other side with 2,60,540 short index futures. On options: clients are long 3,69,744 calls and short 5,48,501 puts — a clear long delta, short skew positioning. FIIs hold 2,60,556 short calls and 4,55,524 long puts. Pros mirror the same — short calls, long puts. The tug of war is set: FIIs and Pros positioned for reversal, clients positioned completely long.Key levels for today: 23,200 is the gamma flip zone. Below that, 23,000 is first support with 71 lakh puts sold, followed by 22,800 where 47 lakh puts are written. On the upside, 23,400 is first resistance with 31 lakh calls sold, and 23,500 is the major wall with 51 lakh calls. One standard deviation range for today's expiry sits at 22,564 on the downside and 23,800 on the upside. IV is at 24.64 — elevated — with straddles at ₹500. Long gamma conditions are in play.Today's read: the morning gap up is unlikely to sustain. Expect a sell-off in the first half, with a potential bounce later if indices attempt recovery. Sectors showing relative strength: Energy, Pharma, Defence, FMCG, Mid Cap, Chemicals. Sectors losing ground: IT, Infra, CNX 500, Finance, Auto.Know your levels. Trade the data, not the emotion. That's your edge.Subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify — 5 minutes, every trading day. RupeeCase — India's systematic investing terminal: rupeecase.com Follow: @TanmayKurtkoti#TheTanmayEdge #NiftyOptions #FIIData #PreMarket #IndianMarkets #QCAlpha #RupeeCase

Friday, 13th March — GIFT Nifty trades at 23,510, down 206 points, signalling a weak open near 23,500. US markets closed sharply lower — S&P 500 down 1.52% and Nasdaq down 1.78% — while European markets shed 0.5%. Asian markets are broadly in the red this morning, with Nikkei down 1.24% and Kospi down 1.52%.FIIs were net sellers of ₹7,049 crore yesterday, while DIIs absorbed ₹7,449 crore. For March, FIIs have sold ₹46,166 crore versus DIIs buying ₹60,549 crore. Since April 2024, FIIs have offloaded ₹2,56,000 crore while DIIs have bought ₹7,57,000 crore, continuing to provide a strong backstop.On positioning, FIIs are aggressively short 2,26,327 index futures contracts. Clients have sold a massive 5,15,027 put contracts — a crowded bet on a bounce — while FIIs and Pros have bought puts and sold calls, positioning for further downside. The gap down today is likely to squeeze client stops.Trade Setup:Key support at 23,500 with 44 lakh shares on the put side; resistance at 24,000 with 52 lakh shares.Gamma flip level sits at 23,650 — below this, negative gamma accelerates moves.Scalping opportunity: play a 23,500–23,000 put spread and a 23,500–24,000 call spread through the session.Metals and energy are the only sectors showing relative strength; CNX Energy worth watching given geopolitical tailwinds.IV is running at 21.95 with a one standard deviation range of 23,000–24,300. Expect a volatility spike to 27–28 on the open, with a pullback towards 22 in the second half. Use spreads, protect capital, and keep stop losses intact.

Friday, 22nd August — GIFT Nifty trades at 25,057, down 50 points, even as Asian markets hold steady in the green. US indices slipped overnight, with the Nasdaq down 0.34% at a crucial 21,000 level.Flows turned supportive, with FIIs buying ₹1,246 crore and DIIs adding ₹2,546 crore. For the month, however, FIIs remain net sellers (-₹24,128 crore), while DIIs continue to absorb supply (+₹66,512 crore).Positioning data shows clients maintaining their long stance with 4.43 lakh shares net long, while pros remain net short at 1.21 lakh shares, balancing the risk. With implied volatility at just 8.5 for the August expiry and realized volatility still running higher, long gamma strategies remain the preferred play.Trade Setup:Core directional bias: Stay long gamma.Bull Put Spread is attractive: Sell 25,500 PE, Buy 25,100 PE. The spread is trading near 320–330 points, with risk and reward both capped near 40-50 & 350 points.Pharma continues to show sectoral strength, while CPSE remains a weak spot.In commodities, gold trades near ₹99,390 with a slight bullish bias, silver is stable, crude has bounced to ₹5,545, and natural gas shorts should be covered at ₹240. Bitcoin remains weak at $1,13,440, while the Dollar Index stays firm above 98 and USDINR holds at 87.26.With vols suppressed but realised moves still sharp, the theme remains the same trade with long gamma, use spreads to define risk, and focus on sectoral outperformance.

Friday, 22nd August — GIFT Nifty trades at 25,057, down 50 points, even as Asian markets hold steady in the green. US indices slipped overnight, with the Nasdaq down 0.34% at a crucial 21,000 level.Flows turned supportive, with FIIs buying ₹1,246 crore and DIIs adding ₹2,546 crore. For the month, however, FIIs remain net sellers (-₹24,128 crore), while DIIs continue to absorb supply (+₹66,512 crore).Positioning data shows clients maintaining their long stance with 4.43 lakh shares net long, while pros remain net short at 1.21 lakh shares, balancing the risk. With implied volatility at just 8.5 for the August expiry and realized volatility still running higher, long gamma strategies remain the preferred play.Trade Setup:Core directional bias: Stay long gamma.Bull Put Spread is attractive: Sell 25,500 PE, Buy 25,100 PE. The spread is trading near 340–350 points, with risk and reward both capped near 40-50 & 400 points.Pharma continues to show sectoral strength, while CPSE remains a weak spot.In commodities, gold trades near ₹99,390 with a slight bullish bias, silver is stable, crude has bounced to ₹5,545, and natural gas shorts should be covered at ₹240. Bitcoin remains weak at $1,13,440, while the Dollar Index stays firm above 98 and USDINR holds at 87.26.With vols suppressed but realized moves still sharp, the theme remains the same — trade with long gamma, use spreads to define risk, and focus on sectoral outperformance.

It’s expiry day, Thursday 21st August, and markets are trading steady near the 25,000 mark. GIFT Nifty is higher at 25,109 (+29 pts), even as US markets saw weakness (Nasdaq -142 pts) and Asian markets trade mixed. Crude has bounced back above $67, gold is inching higher, and USDINR trades firm above 87.Flows remain divergent — FIIs sold another ₹1,100 crore while DIIs bought ₹1,806 crore, keeping the monthly totals wide apart (FIIs -₹25,375 crore vs DIIs +₹63,966 crore).Positioning shows clients still holding net longs (~3.16L shares), while pros have cut their shorts to ~56k. Synthetic futures are aligned near spot, indicating expiry action around 25,000–25,150. Weekly IVs have collapsed to 8.8, with the 25,050 straddle pricing just ₹106 — implying an ultra-narrow expiry range of 24,950–25,150.Today’s trade setup:Avoid naked option selling in the morning; vols can spike.Calendar trades remain attractive (realized vols > implied).Consider a Long Call Butterfly around 25k: Buy 24,950 CE, Sell 2× 25,050 CE, Buy 25,100 CE — defined risk, expiry-aligned.Sectoral strength continues in IT, Realty, Capital Markets, Small/Midcaps, and FMCG, while Pharma and CPSE remain neutral. In commodities, crude is weak, silver is falling, gold is stable, and Bitcoin trades soft.The broader market mean remains at 25,000, with upside potential towards 25,200 if momentum builds.Stay light, trade smart, and let expiry work for you.

Welcome to Trade Setup with Tanmay — your 5-minute audio podcast before the chaos begins.It’s Wednesday, 20th August, and markets are holding steady near the 25,000 mark despite weakness in global equities. Asian indices are sharply lower (Nikkei -1.6%, Taiwan -1.8%, Kospi -1.85%), while US markets saw a tech-led selloff with Nasdaq dropping 1.5%. Brent crude remains under $66, gold continues to slip, and USDINR has cooled off after rejecting 87.50 resistance.Flows remain divergent — FIIs sold ₹634 crore while DIIs bought ₹2,261 crore, keeping the monthly trend intact: FIIs net sellers (₹24,200 cr) and DIIs strong buyers (₹62,160 cr).On the positioning front, clients have trimmed longs to ~3.96 lakh shares, while pros have cut shorts sharply to ~65k. With both sides reducing extremes, the market positioning looks balanced. The implied range from the 25k straddle is 24,800–25,200, keeping 25k as the mean reference. Volatility remains subdued at 9.46, making calendar spreads (21st vs 28th Aug) a favored trade.Sector strength is visible in Autos (GST relief-driven), Realty, Metals, Smallcaps, and Midcaps, while CPSE stocks lag. IT is showing early signs of a turnaround. In commodities, crude remains weak, gold bearish, silver neutral, and natural gas stable. Bitcoin trades steady near $115,000.Today’s trade view:Use dips near 24,800–24,750 to go long.Monthly expiry target stands at 25,500.Avoid naked option shorts at low vols; look at calendar trades for safer setups.Key event triggers include FOMC Minutes tonight and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which could shift volatility expectations.Stay tuned, trade safe, and let’s decode the setup before the chaos begins.

EP26: Nifty Steadies Near 25,000, Range Trade Likely — Expiry Watch & Sector Cues | 19th August, TuesdayGlobal Cues:US markets rallied overnight.Asian markets mostly weak: Hang Seng (-0.3%), Taiwan (-0.58%), Kospi (-0.5%), Nikkei (-0.1%).Brent crude slipped below $67, trading at $66.28.Dollar Index at 98.20, USDINR testing resistance at 87.50–87.75.Institutional Flows:FIIs finally turned buyers, +₹550 crore.DIIs bought ₹4,103 crore.MTD: FIIs net sold ₹23,740 crore, DIIs net bought ₹59,899 crore.Derivatives Positioning:Clients: Net long ~5.54 lakh shares (92k long calls, 4.32 lakh short puts, 1.15 lakh futures long).Pros: Net short, continuing defensive stance.Volatility & Range:IVs at 11.09 (21st Aug expiry).24,950 straddle ~₹211, implying range: 24,700 – 25,200.Expect consolidation in the morning; possible breakout in second half.Sectors to Watch:Strength: Pharma, Metals, Capital Markets, Smallcap turnaround.Weak: IT, select Financials.Commodities:Gold ~₹99801 (neutral).Silver firm.Crude weak.Game Plan:Expiry day for Sensex contracts — expect volatility.Short options early on spike; watch for breakout later.Buy dips near 24,800–24,850 with upside target of 25,200.It’s Tuesday, 19th August, and markets open steady near the 25,000 mark. Global cues are mixed — US markets rallied, but Asian indices are largely in the red, and Brent crude slipped below $67. On the domestic front, FIIs finally turned buyers (+₹550 cr), while DIIs added another ₹4,103 cr, continuing their strong monthly inflows.On the derivatives side, clients remain heavily long with over 5.5 lakh shares in net exposure, while pros continue to stay short. Weekly IVs are at 11.09 with a 24,950 straddle pricing in a 24,700–25,200 trading range. Expect a volatile morning, but keep an eye on a possible breakout in the second half.Sector rotation is clear — Pharma, Metals, Capital Markets, and Smallcaps are leading strength, while IT and select Financials are lagging. In commodities, gold is neutral to sell and silver remain firm, while crude continues to weaken. USDINR is testing resistance around 87.50–87.75, while the Dollar Index holds steady near 98.20.Today’s trade plan:Use dips towards 24,800–24,850 to build longs.Watch for upside levels near 25,200 if 25k holds.Expiry in Sensex contracts today — expect intra-day volatility.

A very good morning and welcome to Trade Setup with Tanmay — your 5-minute audio podcast before the chaos begins.As of this morning, GIFT Nifty is trading at 24,924, up nearly 270 points, indicating a positive start to the week.Key Market DriversGST Reform Impact: The recent next-gen reforms in GST, with tax rate changes, could influence individual stocks and entire sectors. This will be the key theme to watch.Global Cues:Nikkei: +361 pts (43,740)Taiwan: +86 pts (0.36%)Shanghai: +0.58%On the weaker side: Kospi (-1.2%), Strait (-0.66%), Jakarta (-0.4%)→ Overall, Asia is trading mixed.Commodities & Currency:Crude: 65.77 (pulling back)Gold: steadyDollar Index: 97.89 (below 98)USDINR: 87.55, testing resistance near 87.80FlowsFIIs: Net sellers of ₹1,926 crore (as of 14th August)August net outflow: ₹24,191 croreDIIs: Net buyers of ₹3,895 croreAugust net inflow: ₹55,795 croreSectors & IndicesPositive strength: Auto, Pharma, IT, InfraWeakness: Realty, Metals, FMCGIndices: Nifty, Bank Nifty, Sensex all in long mode on TK ALGO combined signals.Volatility & Options SetupThursday’s close triggered a long IV signal on TK ALGO at 10.1 IV → still stable at the same level.Expectation: Large jump in vols today.Synthetic futures (21st Aug expiry): 24,653 → about 250 pts lower than this morning’s open.24,650 straddle: ~₹282, implying range 24,920–24,940 (near current open).Likely first-half consolidation → pullback → second-half trending rally possible.Strategy Setup:Continue with long gamma bias.Trade via short calendar: Buy near-dated straddle, sell far-dated straddle.Avoid naked long vols; pair with calendar to reduce bleed.Derivatives PositioningClients:Net long 5.62 lakh shares (options)Calls bought: 1.7 lakhPuts sold: 3.9 lakhFutures long: 1.24 lakh→ Clients are heavily long; advisable to book partial profits on the open, re-enter on dips.Pros:Net short 2.34 lakh contractsCalls sold: 1.45 lakhPuts bought: 90k→ Likely to be hit on the positive open, could add to second-half volatility.Game Plan for TodayExpect consolidation in the first half, but bias remains positive.Profit booking on the open makes sense; re-enter on pullbacks.Keep eyes on 24,800–24,850 support zone and 25,200 upside target.Long gamma strategies remain favored as realized moves > implied vols.

GIFT Nifty is trading flat near 24,650 this morning as markets gear up for expiry. Global cues are mixed — US markets closed positive with Nasdaq at 21,713 (+137 pts) and S&P 500 at 6,466 (+20 pts), while Asian markets are split: Jakarta and Shanghai in the green, Nikkei higher by 267 pts (+0.66%), but Hang Seng and Taiwan slightly weaker.Institutional Flow (13th Aug):FIIs: Sold ₹3,644 Cr (MTD: -₹22,264 Cr)DIIs: Bought ₹5,623 Cr (MTD: +₹51,899 Cr)Earnings Watch – Final Day of the Season:Over 530 results expected today, including:IOC, Ashok Leyland, Vodafone Idea, Glenmark Pharma, Inox Wind, Hindustan Copper.Derivatives Positioning:Clients: Net long 4.15 lakh shares in options50,000 long calls3.65 lakh short putsFutures: Long 1.26 lakhPros: Net short 1.41 lakh sharesCalls: FlatPuts: Long 1.41 lakhKey Expiry Levels:24,700 is the big hurdle — heavy build-up at this strike.24650 straddle: ₹11324650 calendar: ₹175Strategy: Short calendar + long today’s straddle / sell next week’s straddle (long gamma bias).Sectors on TK Screener:Strength: Pharma (leading), Auto, Capital Markets, Metals, CPSC, Smallcap.Weakness: Realty, select Banking & Financial stocks.Volatility & Ranges:14th Aug IVs: 9.4Implied move:Downside: 24,520 (support), watch 24,500 as SL.Upside: 24,770, breakout possible above 24,700.Commodities:Gold (MCX): ₹1,40,XXX — strong.Silver: ₹1,12,XXX — firm.Crude: Soft at ₹5,696 — sell bias.NatGas: Buy zone around ₹272.FX & Crypto:USDINR at 87.45 — key resistance 87.50.Dollar Index near 98.Bitcoin steady at ₹1,11,XXX.TK Algo Signals:Both slow and fast modes are in buy territory — bias remains positive if 24,520 holds. Expect early volatility, possible breakout in second half.Key Watch:Above 24,700 → Rally toward 25,000 mean.Below 24,550 → Risk of test to 24,520.Avoid heavy shorts while IVs remain low; long gamma trades still preferred.🎙 Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti — your 5-minute edge before the chaos begins.

As of this morning, GIFT Nifty is trading around 24,644, down by nearly 40 points, indicating a soft start to the day. But global developments are more significant, with renewed 25% tariff discussions and ongoing geopolitical tensions weighing on sentiment.Global Market Snapshot:US markets closed higher overnightNikkei rallied over 2.16%, up nearly 900 pointsJakarta and Taiwan also opened strongHang Seng bucked the trend, down 0.86%Brent Crude remains under pressure, trading near $67.5Gold continues to show strength, currently at $3,381Dollar Index is near 98; USDINR testing 88.00Institutional Flow:FIIs were net sellers again, offloading ₹4,997 crore→ August net outflow now at ₹15,951 croreDIIs bought ₹10,864 crore worth of equities→ Monthly net buying by DIIs now at ₹29,070 croreEarnings to Watch Today (234 Companies):State Bank of IndiaTata MotorsGrasimSiemensVoltasExpect significant stock-specific moves based on earnings announcements.Derivatives Positioning:Clients:Net long 4.43 lakh option contracts→ 67,000 long calls→ 3.76 lakh short putsNet long 1.19 lakh contracts in futuresPros:Net short by 1.3 lakh contracts→ 21,000 short calls→ 1.08 lakh long putsMinor long exposure on futures (18,000 contracts)Volatility & Implied Range:Weekly IVs remain suppressed at 9.74Synthetic Futures (14th August expiry): 24,67224,650 straddle priced at ₹269, implies:→ Upside: ~24,980→ Downside: ~24,430Realized volatility continues to outpace implied, supporting long gamma strategies—buying near-dated straddles and selling back-dated ones can offer favorable setups.TK ALGO Signal:Buy signal on both fast and slow variantsMean reversion target remains: 25,000Sectoral View:Strength: Auto, Metals, IT, FinanceNeutral: Most indicesWeakness: Pharma, Realty, Smallcap – best avoided for long tradesCommodity Check:Crude Oil: ₹5,696 (MCX) – Sell zoneNatural Gas: ₹272 – Buy zoneBitcoin: ₹1,11,123 – Strong momentumUSDINR testing the 88 level; a breach could lead to broader market pullbacksKey Technical Levels:Resistance: 24,700 → Breakout here could trigger a sharp rally to 25,000Support: 24,350 → Formed after Thursday’s sharp bounceWatch levels:→ Below 24,520: Exit long positions→ Above 24,640: Fresh longs can be initiated→ Sustained breakout above 24,700 = potential rally to 25,000Suggested Strategy:Long Gamma remains the preferred approach, especially with low IVs and expanding realized moves. Consider broken wing butterflies or short calendars around 24,900–25,000.This was Tanmay Kurtkoti, founder of QCAlpha, and you’re listening to Trade Setup with Tanmay — your 5-minute pre-market audio podcast before the chaos begins.

The expiry starts on a weak note with Gift Nifty down 69 points around 24,561 — weighed down by continued FII selling and fresh US tariffs on oil imports.Despite a strong global setup (Nasdaq +1.2%, Dow Futures up), Indian markets are bucking the trend.Big Headlines:RBI kept repo rate unchanged at 5.5%U.S. slapped 25% tariffs on key oil-linked importsApple-led tech rally boosted NasdaqVolatility likely to rise into the second halfGlobal Markets Snapshot:Nasdaq: +1.2% | 21,169S&P 500: +0.73% | 6,345Dow Futures: +146 ptsAsia: Mixed, with Taiwan leading (+2.28%), while India underperformsBrent Crude: $67.50Gold: $3,381 | Strength returnsUSDINR: 87.73 | Near key 88 resistanceFII/DII Flows (6th Aug):FIIs: Sold ₹4,999 CrDIIs: Bought ₹6,794 CrMTD Net:FIIs: -₹10,954 CrDIIs: +₹18,207 CrEarnings Watch (250+ results today):Titan, LIC, Godrej CP, HPCL, GIC, BSE, Kalyan JewellersSector View (TK Screener):Weak: Pharma, IT, FMCG, Realty, Midcap, InfraNeutral/Bullish pockets: Capital Markets, select Finance & Bank Nifty stocksTK ALGO: Sell on both fast and slow signalsLevels to Watch:Open: 24,562Synthetic Futures: 24,577Straddle (24,650): ₹150 → Range: 24,700 / 24,450Support Zone: 24,500Resistance Flip Zone: 24,660–24,700Option Strategies:Broken Wing Butterfly @ 24,700 for expiry pinAvoid put selling early in the day — clients overloaded on putsVolatility Play: IVs rising → 7 Aug IV at 12.29, could open at 14+Positioning Snapshot: Clients:Long Futures: 1.4 lakhCall Longs: 1.29 lakhPut Shorts: 4.62 lakhNet Bullish: 5.91 lakh contractsPros:Call Shorts: 76kPut Longs: 1.71 lakhNet Bearish: 2.47 lakh contractsFutures: 18k long (negligible)Commodities:Gold (MCX): ₹98,795 – BuySilver: ₹1,13,906 – StrengthCrude: ₹5,817 – SellNatural Gas: ₹261 – WeakStay light in the morning. Wait for volatility spike post initial jerk. Avoid naked short vol trades. Market still in sell mode. Keep an eye on 24,500 for support.🎧 Listen now to prep your expiry day in 5 mins — clear levels, flows, sectors & trades.#TradeSetupWithTanmay | Daily at 8:30 AMYour edge before the chaos begins.

EP 21: RBI Policy Day, Flat Open, Long Gamma Still in Play, Clients vs Pros Diverge 6th August ( Wed ) Market SnapshotGift Nifty trades flat at 24,704RBI’s MPC policy meet today at 10 AMNo rate change expected, but some calls for 25 bps cutGlobal MarketsNasdaq: -137 pts (20,916)S&P 500: -30 pts (6,299)Dow Futures: +146 ptsAsia Mixed:Nikkei: +267 ptsJakarta, Shanghai: Mildly positiveTaiwan: -140 ptsHang Seng: -146 ptsFII/DII Cash Flow (5 Aug)FIIs: Sold ₹22 CrDIIs: Bought ₹3,840 CrMTD Totals:FIIs: -₹5,955 CrDIIs: +₹11,413 CrEarnings Watch (6 Aug)145 companies to report. Key names:Bajaj AutoDevis LabsHero MotoCorpPFCPidiliteBajaj HoldingsPositioning DataClientsLong Futures: 1.18 lakhCall Longs: 27,000Put Shorts: 4.25 lakhNet Long Exposure: 4.53 lakh contractsProsLong Futures: 16,000Call Longs: 11,000Put Longs: 2.8 lakhNet Short Exposure: -1.96 lakh contractsTakeaway:Clients remain strongly bullish, Pros remain cautious and defensive.Sector Trends (TK Screener)Strength:AutoMetalsRealtyWeakness:BankingSmallcapCapital MarketsTK Algo SignalFast Signal: BuyCombined Signal: Still in SellVolatility and Option Setup7th Aug IV: 11.177th Aug Synthetic Future: 24,65824,650 Straddle: ₹176Calendar (24,650): ₹154Implied Range:Upside: 24,800Downside: 24,520Long gamma remains in focusNo short volatility trades before 10 AM (RBI policy)Post-policy, short calendars may be initiatedMean stands at 24,900As long as 24,600 holds, play for bounce towards 25,000Final WordVolatility is at lower end of range, policy outcome could shake things up. Stay light till 10 AM. Directional clarity may emerge post-RBI. Bias remains mildly bullish with controlled risk.Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti is your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins. Join every morning at 8:00–8:30 AM.

Market SnapshotGift Nifty is flat at 24,720 — suggesting a muted open. After yesterday’s volatile bounce, markets are consolidating below the 24,700 zone. Volatility has risen from extreme lows, and real moves are starting to exceed implied expectations — setting the tone for long gamma plays.🌍 Global MarketsDow Futures: +35 ptsNasdaq: Closed +0.3% at 20,710S&P 500: Closed flat at 6,238Europe: Slight recovery, FTSE & CAC marginally positiveAsia: MixedNikkei: -0.4%Hang Seng: +0.2%Taiwan, Shanghai: Flat📊 FII/DII Cash Flows (Monday, 4 Aug)FIIs: Sold ₹2,968 CrDIIs: Bought ₹3,105 CrMTD TotalsFIIs: -₹8,356 CrDIIs: +₹9,960 Cr📈 Derivatives PositioningClientsLong Futures: +11,000Long Calls: +25,000Short Puts: -4,30,000Net Long Bias: +4,66,000 contractsProsLong Futures: +9,000Short Calls: -18,000Long Puts: +2,21,000Net Short Bias: -2,30,000 contractsInterpretation:Clients continue to load up on bullish trades — long futures, short puts — creating exposure risk. Pros remain cautious, long on protection. Trap setups possible if early rally fails.📍 Key Levels & Option DataSpot Close: ~24,7227th August ATM Straddle (24,750): ₹225Upside Implied: ~24,980Downside Implied: ~24,520IVs Rising:Weekly (7 Aug): 11.88Monthly (28 Aug): 12.1Strategy View:Long Gamma preferredShort Calendar trades (front straddle long, back straddle short)Bullish Butterfly at 24,900–25,000 as tactical idea📊 Sectors (TK Algo Screener)Strength:FMCGCPSE (mild improvement)SmallcapRealtyITPharmaMidcapAutoMetalsNifty Trend: Still in Buy Mode (Fast + Combined) on TK Algo📦 Earnings to Watch (5 Aug)Over 90 results expected. Key ones include:Bharti AirtelNMDCIndian Overseas BankMahindra LogisticsTorrent PharmaFlat start expectedMarket may consolidate earlyWatch for dips to buy into gamma setups24,600–24,700 remains the baseMean reversion can lift Nifty toward 25,000 later this weekVols are picking up — don’t get complacentTune in every market morning for the edge you need.Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti — your 5-minute pre-market prep before the chaos begins.