The Watson Weekly: eCommerce Strategy & News

Retailers quietly deduct three to five percent of a brand's invoice for compliance mistakes that have nothing to do with the product itself: a label an inch out of place, a carton that breaks the routing guide, a shipping notice the retailer's scanner can't read. Across the US that's roughly $40 billion a year, and it comes off the top line, not the cost line. You made the product, you shipped it, and you simply don't get paid for part of it.Rick Watson sits down with Elle Smyth, cofounder and CEO of RetailReady, and Art Nimbley, IT Director at Pierre Fabre USA, to work the chargeback problem from both sides. Ellie built an AI-native compliance platform that ingests the 399-page Walmart routing guide so warehouse operators don't have to memorize it. Art rolled it out during a 3PL switch and watched technical chargebacks fall to near zero on the very first order.They get into what a routing guide actually is, why an ASN transmitted at 12:55 and 55 seconds still isn't always enough, how one Pierre Fabre employee was losing 40 hours a month building shipping notices by hand, and why Art keeps challenging billion-dollar retailers when he's convinced they're wrong. He's three for three so far. If you sell into retail and you've been writing off chargebacks as the cost of doing business, this conversation is worth your time.The Watson Weekly interview is sponsored by Radial and Avalara.

Nike says net income jumped 407%. Strip out a single tariff refund and full-year profit actually fell. That gap is the whole week in one number.Rick Watson runs through it: Shopify moving its incentivized-review ban from partner guidelines into hard App Store policy, and deleting reviews tied to fake accounts across listings. Nike's headline quarter and the one-time $986M refund propping it up, with profit down 3% and China still unresolved. Walmart pulling Walmart Connect, Connect International, and Sam's Club Connect into a single ad business built on data from 10,000-plus stores. Target Plus adding Forever 21 and Clarks, chasing K-beauty, and offloading electronics risk while its marketplace grows nearly 60%, though curation may be too small to matter at Target's size. And the Investor Minute: Kroger and Giant Eagle at $1.65B, Jersey Mike's filing to IPO, and The Zero Proof buying The New Bar.Sponsored by Avalara.

The Swift–Kelce wedding turned into a marketing free-for-all, and Rick and Jessica sort the brands that pulled it off from the ones that face-planted. The Knot circled Madison Square Garden with billboard trucks. A fake antique-shop ad about furniture rolling into the arena still racked up 11,000 likes. From there they get into Target finally waking up to the marketplace it's ignored for years, and Shopify's promise to clean up fake app-store reviews, which will probably sweep out a pile of legit ones too. Retail news with opinions attached.The Watson Weekly is sponsored by Avalara. It works with platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce, helping teams manage compliance faster and scale with confidence. Learn more at avalara.watsonweekly.com.

The era of the weird, different storefront is over. On Shopify, design that converts beats design that surprises.That is the argument in the third and final episode of our Enterprise Shopify series. Rick Watson sits down with Elara Verret, Chief Digital and Customer Officer at Reitmans, and Isaac Newton, Co-Founder of Pattern (part of Domaine).Reitmans is a 100-year-old retailer with roughly 400 stores. It moved its flagship onto Shopify in under a year. Elara's own team had scoped that work at two to three years.The conversation stays specific. Why the enterprise case for Shopify is agility and focus rather than cost cutting. Where customization earns its keep and where it just leaves you a maintenance bill. What happens when merchants start editing the storefront in VS Code and someone has to ask, politely, to turn off their Sidekick access. And the plateau Isaac sees over and over: brands that grew fast three to five years ago, then watched a dozen copycats erase what made them different.Headless comes up. Both have opinions.The Big Green Bag Of Promise: Enterprise Shopify Webinar Series is sponsored by Avalara, Domaine, and Pattern.The Big Green Bag Of Promise: Enterprise Shopify Webinar Series is not sponsored by Shopify.

Every big commerce name put up growth in the first half of 2026. Rick's question is what it cost them.Shopify had its best quarter in years and passed $100 billion in GMV, though loan losses at Shopify Capital crept up over the same stretch. Amazon beat estimates and then turned around and spent $44.2 billion in three months on AI infrastructure. UPS is doing something stranger. It's shrinking revenue on purpose, walking away from Amazon volume and booking about $1.2 billion in separation costs to chase higher-margin work. Walmart's real growth engine now looks like advertising. FedEx spun off its freight business and is trying to pull a billion dollars of cost out of the network. And PayPal keeps moving more money while the profitable part of the business sits nearly flat.The Watson Weekly is sponsored by Avalara. It works with platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce, helping teams manage compliance faster and scale with confidence. Learn more at avalara.watsonweekly.com.None of that shows up in a headline growth number. Rick's case is that the cash flow does, and that it separates the companies actually getting healthier from the ones renting the look of it.#watsonweekly #shopify #amazon #ups #walmart #fedex #paypal

Half of 2026 is behind us. We went back through the first six months and split the big commerce and AI stories into two groups, the bold moves and the cold ones.Start with Anthropic. While the attention stayed on OpenAI, it kept its head down and aimed at one customer, the enterprise buyer. The Snowflake deal landed. Opus shipped over the holidays and picked up real developer momentum. Claude Code gave those developers somewhere to work that wasn't a browser tab. That's a company that knew what it was ignoring.The Watson Weekly Weekend episode is sponsored by Avalara. Its Agentic Tax and Compliance automates behind-the-scenes work for ecommerce brands, enabling accurate checkout tax calculation, clearer tariff and duty visibility, and fewer customer surprises. Avalara integrates with platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce. Learn more at avalara.watsonweekly.comThen Ryan Cohen. He aimed GameStop at eBay, took the board's rejection on the chin, raised his stake to 7.8%, and told anyone listening he wants to own it. Gutsy. The follow-through has been weaker than the opening move.The cold list is shorter and sadder. eBay's roughly $1.2 billion deal to buy Depop from Etsy is still sitting in regulatory review, and Depop sellers are already watching boost fees jump to 12% and wondering what the integration does to the rest. eBay does not have a great record of making acquisitions work. OpenAI, for its part, backed away from checkout. Commerce has a way of humbling anyone who thinks returns, fraud, and merchant-of-record rules are somebody else's problem.

Unified commerce is a data strategy first and a Shopify decision second. Rick Watson tests that idea with two operators who have lived it. In episode two of the Shopify roundtable series, Rick talks with Elara Verret, Chief Digital and Customer Officer of Reitmans and Max Rolon, CTO of Domaine, about what enterprise retail runs into on the way to unified commerce. They get into the back-end systems large retailers cannot rip out, the staging environment Shopify does not give them, and the BOPUS and promotion gaps that still need work at scale. There is a stack conversation too, covering where a PIM, a dedicated IMS, and orchestration tools earn their place. The panel keeps returning to one idea. The software is rarely what stalls a migration. The people are.The Big Green Bag Of Promise: Enterprise Shopify Webinar Series is sponsored by Avalara, Domaine, and Pattern.The Big Green Bag Of Promise: Enterprise Shopify Webinar Series is not sponsored by Shopify.

This week on the Watson Weekly, four stories about who controls what you see and what you buy.Papa John's wanted to reach you the moment your fridge runs empty, so it bought the data to know when that happens. Instacart supplied it. The company confirms this is the first time it has handed first-party purchase data to a brand outside packaged goods, served on NBCU streaming inventory. The targeting is clever. The results do not exist yet.Amazon moved Prime Day to June for the first time since 2021. The stated reason is a crowded July. The real reason is a holiday Amazon never has to share. Adobe projected $26.3 billion in spending across the window, but CPI rose 4.2% in May and average order values fell 17%, with more shoppers reaching for buy now, pay later. Read that headline slowly.The Watson Weekly is sponsored by Avalara. It works with platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce, helping teams manage compliance faster and scale with confidence. Learn more at avalara.watsonweekly.com.FedEx grew revenue 13%. Strip out the fuel surcharge and adjusted operating income grew 3%, with margins down 70 basis points. The company spun off freight on June 1st at the bottom of its cycle and switched its fiscal calendar. The December report covers a seven-month stub year.Cannes sold agentic commerce for five days on the Riviera. Amazon launched agentic ads on Alexa. Retail media hit a number near $150 billion, according to the people selling it. Capability and intent were everywhere. Proof was not.Plus the Investor Minute: Redo, Orderful, Walmart's $1.4 billion move on Vibe, Tiger Finance and Glossier, and Bed Bath & Beyond buying a real estate platform.#watsonweekly #papajohnspizza #instacart #fedex #amazon #cannes

Tourists flew in for the World Cup and went viral filming trips to Buc-ee's and Waffle House. Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky unpack what that attention is actually worth, then move to two bigger bets.The Watson Weekly Weekend episode is sponsored by Avalara. Its Agentic Tax and Compliance automates behind-the-scenes work for ecommerce brands, enabling accurate checkout tax calculation, clearer tariff and duty visibility, and fewer customer surprises. Avalara integrates with platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce. Learn more at avalara.watsonweekly.comOpenAI is selling ChatGPT as an ad platform, with claims of 900 million weekly users and a target of a $100 billion ad business by 2030. The pitch is conversational intent. The problem is everything the older platforms already learned the hard way about guardrails, minors, and regulated categories.Then Shopify Editions Spring 2026, where the catalog is suddenly the whole strategy. Shopify wants to be the feed AI shopping agents read from, and Shop Pay is now available on any platform, anywhere. Rick makes the case that this is Shopify finally aiming at Amazon#watsonweekly #bucees #wafflehouse #worldcup #openai #shopify #ShopifyEditionsSpring2026

Most brands still evaluate enterprise Shopify on license cost. The operators in this conversation evaluate it on opportunity cost, and that reframe changes the whole decision.Rick Watson opens a three-part series on the business case for enterprise Shopify with three people who have actually run the migration. Elara Verrett, Chief Digital and Customer Officer at Reitmans made the move to get closer to the customer without standing up an army of engineers. Renee Halverson, CMO at Marine Layer, has run on the platform for more than a decade and scaled the brand without hiring a CTO to babysit the stack. Scott Lux, VP of Digital Commerce at Stanley 1913, came from the Salesforce and Demandware world and now uses Shopify to survive high-heat drops, where the only question that matters is how many orders per minute the platform can clear.The number that came up: one brand cut its tech partner count from 40 to 10. The argument underneath it: a fashion retailer's core competency is retailing, not running a development shop.It isn't all upside. Scott's warning is blunt. The front end is nimble, but the downstream integrations into OMS and ERP are where "easy" goes to die, so pressure test them before anyone signs. Lara's warning is about people, not software. The agility is real, and most large organizations are not built to absorb it.One point they all landed on, and it cuts against instinct: standardization beats customization where it counts. Checkout is the example. Shoppers trust the flow they already know, and rebuilding it rarely pays for itself.The Big Green Bag Of Promise: Enterprise Shopify Webinar Series is sponsored by Avalara, Domaine, and Pattern.

Shopify wants to be the checkout layer under every AI agent, and its Spring 2026 edition shipped 150-plus updates to prove it. Meanwhile air freight spot rates climbed 41% year over year while demand grew 4%. Somebody is paying for that gap.Shopify Spring 2026: building the plumbing for agents Checkout now runs inside Microsoft Copilot, paid with Shop Pay. There's a universal commerce protocol built with Google. A new agentic commerce plan lets brands sell across ChatGPT and the Shop app without ever being on Shopify. Native B2B is getting pushed down to every plan, aimed at a $36 trillion market. The bet is clear: own the merchant-of-record layer before the agents do.Kimberly-Clark: $3 billion to fix the supply chain Two years into a five-year productivity program. CFO Nelson Urdaneta points to simpler manufacturing, a redrawn distribution network, and more automation. A $1 billion automated DC is going into Beech Island, South Carolina, plus an advanced plant in Ohio. The Kenvue merger closes in the back half and lets them pack trucks tighter by mixing heavy and high-volume goods.Amazon's Peter DeSantis at VivaTech: AI is nowhere near done DeSantis says models need to get 100 to 1,000 times more efficient before they're genuinely useful. The next leap comes from speed: a 40-millisecond reaction time to match human conversation. His fix is a flywheel where chips and models get designed together to drop cost and lift performance.Air freight: 41% up on 4% demand Spot rates hit $3.40 per kilo in May. Surcharges, fuel swings, and Middle East instability are doing the work, not volume. Northeast Asia is up 39%, Southeast Asia up 33%, and Europe to North America has softened. Most of that cargo is data center hardware and semiconductors.The Investor Minute contains 5 stories this week.The Watson Weekly is sponsored by Avalara. It works with platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce, helping teams manage compliance faster and scale with confidence. Learn more at avalara.watsonweekly.com.

TikTok Shop moved $4.4 billion in beauty and wellness. Saks wants $9 billion by 2030. Castle claimed $1.4 billion and was worth $16 million. This week is about which numbers actually hold up.Three companies put big figures on the table. Only one of them earned it, and even that one comes with an asterisk. Rick Watson and Nick Kaplan have a thought provoking conversation on these 3 stories. TikTok Shop: reach without trustRoughly $4.4 billion in wellness and beauty sold since the 2023 launchBrand executives call it a "mafia" because of the traffic it forces through them. The honest scorecard is the halo it throws onto Amazon and Ulta, not the checkouts happening inside the appAwareness is the strength. The weakness is trust: missing shipping confirmations, sellers you can't place, a buying experience that still feels provisionalThe Watson Weekly Weekend edition is sponsored by Avalara. Its Agentic Tax and Compliance automates behind-the-scenes work for ecommerce brands, enabling accurate checkout tax calculation, clearer tariff and duty visibility, and fewer customer surprises. Avalara integrates with platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce. Learn more at avalara.watsonweekly.comSaks Global: out of bankruptcy, into a targetA Texas court approved the Chapter 11 exit plan. Debt cut 75% to about $1.2 billion$500 million in fresh financing, paired with a mandate to reach $9 billion in GMV by 2030The model that got Saks here is still intact: leveraged, low-margin, carrying expensive real estate. And the vendors who went unpaid earlier this year are not feeling generousCaaStle (Gwynnie Bee): a $1.4 billion fictionThe rental subscription business once known as Gwynnie Bee was sold as a $1.4 billion company. The real number was around $16 millionFounder Christine Hunsicker admitted to securities fraud in MarchThe part that should worry everyone: professional investors and auditors missed invented financials. One investor was reportedly paid off to stay quiet, and audit documents from a recognizable firm were falsifiedWhat ties these together is how cheap a number is to produce and how hard the thing underneath it is to fake. TikTok has the reach but hasn't built the trust. Saks has the target but not yet the model to hit it. CaaStle had neither and sold the story anyway. The question worth sitting with: how many of the valuations you read this week are closer to Saks, and how many are closer to CaaStle?

Salesforce renamed Commerce Cloud to Agentforce Commerce and calls this its biggest release in years. Rebrand, or substance? Nitin Mangtani makes the case.Every enterprise vendor is bolting "agentic" onto its roadmap this year. Salesforce went further and renamed the whole product. Nitin Mangtani, who runs Commerce and Retail Cloud, came on to defend the release line by line.We get into Storefront Next, the new storefront meant to serve both the merchant who wants clicks and prompts out of the box and the developer writing code with AI-native tools. The agentic layer: a search engine built on shopper intent instead of keywords, native chat, a ChatGPT catalog integration going live in June, and a shopper agent that's supposed to behave like the associate you'd get in a good store. The B2B story the B2C headlines tend to bury, including round-trip quoting, multicart, and a buying flow that runs on WhatsApp. And modern POS, where the bet is that systems nobody has rethought in twenty years are finally worth rebuilding.Nitin came in through the PredictSpring acquisition two years ago and ran Google's shopping team back in the early 2000s, so he's watched the discovery layer move before. His line throughout: technology for its own sake is worthless. Tie it to ROI and a better customer experience, or don't ship it.So I pushed on the question every merchant on the platform is actually asking. Hear Agentforce Commerce, Storefront Next, and a ChatGPT integration in the same week, and what changes for you, and how soon? Listen and decide whether the rebrand earns the airtime.The Watson Weekly interview is sponsored by Avalara - the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. For more details: https://avalaratax.watsonweekly.com.

She told investors $440M. The real number was $15.7M. This week: the CaaStle fraud, Walmart's Subway play, and Shopify's $5B bet.In this episode:Walmart + Subway. Walmart folded Subway into its delivery app, with express orders coming off the Subway counters already sitting inside its stores. Live now in six states (Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas), with roughly 1,400 locations targeted by end of summer. Flat delivery fee, in-store menu pricing, 30 minutes or less. It rides on the Spark drivers and drones Walmart is already paying for, pointed straight at Uber Eats and DoorDash.The CaaStle fraud. CaaStle told investors it booked $440 million in net revenue for fiscal 2023. The real figure was $15.7 million. Founder and CEO Christine Hunsicker confessed to doctoring the financials on a video call with her board in December 2024, then kept her job for three more months while investors heard nothing. She controlled that board. Co-founder Jaswinder Pal "JP" Singh sold $6 million in stock back to the company around the time investors started asking questions. Hunsicker pleaded guilty to securities fraud in March, admitting she defrauded investors of $283 million, and she's scheduled for sentencing this summer.Apple rents the brains. At WWDC on June 8, Apple introduced Siri AI: a rebuild that reads what's on your screen, pulls context from your messages and email, and takes actions across apps. The part Apple said less about is who's powering it. Reporting puts Apple at more than $1 billion a year to Google for a custom Gemini model running Siri's cloud features. The China rollout waits on regulators. For a company that has spent decades insisting it owns its entire stack, renting the model from a rival is the real headline. Tim Cook hands the company to John Ternus in September.Shopify's $5 billion vote. Shopify added $3 billion to its repurchase program on June 2, taking total authorization to $5 billion. Buybacks usually get read as "we've run out of ideas." Then Q1 revenue rose 34% to $3.2 billion and merchants cleared $100 billion in GMV for the second quarter in a row. Decide for yourself which signal you believe.

This week on the Watson Weekly weekend edition, Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky discuss: Shopify pushes its buyback to $5 billion while every other tech giant pours cash into AI. We ask the obvious question: built for the AI era, or built for the next earnings call? Then Apple's new Siri arrives at WWDC running on Google Gemini, a roughly $1 billion-a-year arrangement that sits next to the $20 billion Google already pays to be Apple's default search. And Anthropic drops a memo on three possible AI futures on its way to an IPO, with Rick putting the whole thing on an 18-month-to-two-year clock. The Watson Weekly Weekend episode is sponsored by Avalara. Avalara integrates with platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce. Learn more at avalara.watsonweekly.com

Software agents are now the highest-converting shoppers on the web, and most stores are built to lock them out. Rick Watson sit down with Stripe's Danny Smith, who leads global agentic commerce solution architecture, to work through what changes when your buyer is a piece of software.The Watson Weekly interview is sponsored by Avalara - the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. For more details: https://avalaratax.watsonweekly.com.They cover why agents convert about 4x better than humans, why two-thirds of agent checkouts fail on sites built for people, and the four ways merchants can let agents pay, from approving every purchase by hand up to agents transacting with each other directly. Danny closes with three concrete moves to make now, starting with treating your robots.txt like a doorman instead of a bouncer.

It's June 8th, 2026, and Rick Watson breaks down the week's e-commerce news with his usual habit: put the press release down and look at the calendar.This week: Amazon yanks Prime Day forward to June 23rd–26th and blames the World Cup and America's 250th birthday. Rick isn't buying it. With Q2 closing June 30th and a nervous consumer pulling back, this looks like a P&L decision aimed squarely at Walmart's grocery turf.Then FedEx Freight starts trading on its own as FDXF and the new CEO promises to "leapfrog" the competition. The stock closed down 7% on day one. Rick stress-tests that word against the actual target: 15% operating margin by 2029, up from roughly 12 today. That's catching up, not leaping.This week's episode is sponsored by Avalara. It works with platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce, helping teams manage compliance faster and scale with confidence. Learn more at avalara.watsonweekly.com.Plus Anthropic's confidential IPO filing and why "confidentially" is the word everyone's skipping. The growth is real and genuinely insane, but most of the eye-popping numbers are run rate, the real annual figure is $10 billion, and the gross-margin question under 5 gigawatts of Amazon-funded compute is the one nobody can answer yet.And the ShipStation Global merger: WEX and Auctane combine into a 3-billion-shipment Thoma Bravo roll-up. Rick's read on whether welding a freight desk to label-printing software actually holds together.

Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky sit down to unpack a busy stretch across tech, shipping, and commerce. They open with Anthropic's confidential IPO filing, submitted to the SEC on June 1st, and what it signals about the AI lab's trajectory. After a $65 billion Series H that pushed its valuation to $965 billion, Anthropic now sits ahead of OpenAI on that measure, and Rick and Jessica dig into how it got there: a revenue run rate that climbed from roughly $10 billion a year ago to about $47 billion by May 2026, helped by a developer-first bet through Claude Code that has made it a serious contender for enterprise spend.The Watson Weekly Weekend episode is sponsored by Avalara. Its Agentic Tax and Compliance automates behind-the-scenes work for ecommerce brands, enabling accurate checkout tax calculation, clearer tariff and duty visibility, and fewer customer surprises. Avalara integrates with platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce. Learn more at avalara.watsonweekly.comFrom there the conversation turns physical. USPS and DHL have signed a multi-year contract valued at well over $10 billion, with DHL handling pickup, sorting, and transport while USPS covers final-mile delivery. It lands at an awkward moment for the Postal Service, which posted a $9.5 billion loss in fiscal 2025 and whose Postmaster General has warned of a possible cash crisis within a year absent action from Congress.The last segment covers Salesforce's push to wake up a commerce cloud that had been growing under 2%. The reported Contentful acquisition (somewhere in the $1 to $1.5 billion range) fits a long pattern that runs through MuleSoft, Tableau, Slack, and PredictSpring. Rick and Jessica close on whether the integrated Agentforce suite can hold up against focused players like Shopify.

Christina Hagopian has spent 24 years running her own brand strategy and creative practice. In this episode she joins Rick Watson to explain why a brand is far more than a logo: it's what people think and feel about you before your message ever lands, and it has to trace back to a company's actual mission, vision, and values.She and Rick talk through the real and the overstated parts of AI in marketing. It earns its keep on brainstorming, competitive audits, brand voice, and rough first drafts of positioning or naming. It falls down on original, trademarkable work because it leans on the average of what's already out there, and Christina describes a case where it couldn't get something as specific as REM sleep brain waves right for a medical site. Her argument: AI replaces average design, not designers.The Watson Weekly interview is sponsored by Avalara - the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. For more details: https://avalaratax.watsonweekly.com.The throughline is differentiation. In a crowded digital space, a clear point of view is what gets you noticed, and a strong brand is the foundation everything else stands on. You have one either way. The only question is whether you've built it on purpose.

Rick Watson runs through a busy week in retail. Walmart posted a $177.8 billion quarter, with revenue up 7.3%, U.S. comps up 4.1%, and global e-commerce up 26%, yet free cash flow landed at negative $1.9B as automation capex climbed. Advertising grew 37%, marketplace sales jumped close to 50%, and new shoppers skewed upper-income. At Sam's Club, more trips but smaller baskets.Authentic Brands Group named a new CEO: founder Jamie Salter moved to executive chairman, and former MGM Resorts chief Matt Maddox took over. ABG holds 50-plus brands, $38B in system-wide sales, and 77% of the company behind Saks, Neiman Marcus, and Bergdorf Goodman. Salter floated an IPO within the year.At Google I/O 2026, the Universal Cart follows shoppers across Search, Gemini, YouTube, and Gmail, AI Mode crossed a billion monthly users, and native checkout opened to UCP merchants. Kroger hit $16B in e-commerce with a first profit in sight, wages past $20, two senior exits, and 70 to 80 stores planned. Plus an Investor Minute on Global-e, Insider, and Brown-Forman.This week's episode is sponsored by Avalara. For e-commerce brands, tax compliance grows more complex with every new channel, state, product, and market. Avalara Agentic Tax and Compliance automates the behind-the-scenes work so merchants can offer a smoother checkout, with accurate tax calculations, clearer visibility into tariffs and duties, and fewer surprises when orders arrive. It works with platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce, helping teams manage compliance faster and scale with confidence. Learn more at avalara.watsonweekly.com.

Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky break down Walmart's Q1 numbers and what they say about where retail is heading. Revenue was up 7.3%, U.S. comps rose 4.1%, and global e-commerce grew 26%, but the more telling figures sit elsewhere: advertising up 37% globally and the U.S. marketplace up nearly 50%. Rick and Jessica make the case that Walmart is quietly becoming a digital services business, pulling in wealthier shoppers with celebrity lines and faster delivery, and backing it all with a $1.7 billion-a-year bet on fulfillment automation that Kroger and others will struggle to match.The Watson Weekly Weekend episode is sponsored by Avalara. Its Agentic Tax and Compliance automates behind-the-scenes work for ecommerce brands, enabling accurate checkout tax calculation, clearer tariff and duty visibility, and fewer customer surprises. Avalara integrates with platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce. Learn more at avalara.watsonweekly.comFrom there the conversation moves to Google I/O and the "agentic" pitch, including a universal cart meant to follow you across Search, YouTube, and Gemini through Google Wallet. Then the happiness index returns for a look at a K-shaped economy, where affluent buyers keep spending (Amex reported 10% growth in card member spending) while a lot of people are cutting back on basics like gas. Rick closes with advice for brands: shrink the gap between deciding and doing. Take out the friction, lean on convenience and automation, and you win the customer.#WatsonWeekly #Walmart #Retail #Ecommerce #GoogleIO

In this Watson Weekly interview episode, Rick Watson is joined by Lennart Stevens, VP of Product Management for Agentforce Commerce at Salesforce, who walks through Storefront Next, the latest evolution of Salesforce's commerce storefront.Storefront Next is built for developers and for a world where AI and agentic coding are the default. You can spin up a new storefront inside Business Manager with a click-based setup. Under the hood it runs on Salesforce's Managed Runtime as a hosted headless surface, with an enhanced SCAPI layer that lets apps, kiosks, and other channels pull from the same data. The stack standardizes on React, Shadcn, and Tailwind. Existing customers keep their catalogs, prices, and promotions and surface them through the new API.The Watson Weekly interview is sponsored by Avalara - the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. For more details: https://avalaratax.watsonweekly.com.Lennart also gets into the agentic tooling (agent shopper, agentic merchandising), quiet AI like product readiness scores that flag missing info without nagging, reusable content blocks and embedded Page Designer components, and turnkey industry templates for retail, cosmetics, and furniture that convert well out of the box. He covers the upgraded CLI, the growing library of skills, and support for UCP as the channel-selling standard.The whole point: cut the standup busywork so developers spend time on what actually moves the business.#watsonweekly #agentforce #storefrontnext #agentic

Two big retail earnings reports, two very different stories. Home Depot grew total sales 4.8% to $41.77 billion, but comparable sales barely moved (up 0.6%) and net income slipped to $3.29 billion from $3.43 billion a year ago, a sign of margin pressure. Target posted the louder top line, with net sales up 6.7% to about $25.15 billion and comps up 5.6%. The catch: net income fell 24% to $781 million, and the stock dropped nearly 5% after management guided comps down to roughly 1% for the rest of the year.On the tech side, Google and Blackstone are launching an AI cloud company with as much as $25 billion behind it, built on Google's own TPU chips to take on Nvidia and CoreWeave. France's Publicis Group bought the data platform LiveRamp for $2.2 billion in cash, a wager on "data co-creation" for AI agents.And 5 Investor minute stories from the world of venture capital, IPOs, and mergers and acquisitions. The Watson Weekly is sponsored by Avalara. For ecommerce brands, tax compliance gets more complicated with every new channel, state, product, and market. Avalara Agentic Tax and Compliance helps automate the work behind the scenes, so merchants can deliver a smoother customer experience — with accurate tax calculation at checkout, clearer visibility into tariffs and duties, and fewer surprises for customers when their order arrives.Avalara works with ecommerce platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, WooCommerce, and more, helping teams manage compliance faster and scale with more confidence. To learn more about Avalara’s ecommerce compliance solutions, and explore resources built for growing ecommerce brands go to avalara.watsonweekly.com for more details.

Home Depot just told the market it's treading water, and Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky dig into why the remodeling boom never showed up. People are tapping their home equity to consolidate debt, not rip out the bathroom. Paint and outdoor are fine. Lumber, flooring, mill work? Not so much. So Home Depot is quietly walking away from the consumer and betting the house on pros, HVAC, and a $700 billion market.The Watson Weekly is sponsored by Avalara. Its Agentic Tax and Compliance automates behind-the-scenes work for ecommerce brands, enabling accurate checkout tax calculation, clearer tariff and duty visibility, and fewer customer surprises. Avalara integrates with platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, and WooCommerce. Learn more at avalara.watsonweekly.com.Then: TikTok is now the fourth largest health and beauty retailer in the country at $4.4 billion, and the action isn't even in the videos. It's in the comments. We break down why brands should build the conversation first and let the comment section do the selling.And the one that broke the internet: Everlane sold to Shein for $100 million, down from a $550 to $600 million peak. Common stockholders get nothing. We get into whether Shein actually paid cash for brand equity or just bought itself a respectable-looking front for a not-so-respectable supply chain. Jessica says the quiet part out loud. Rick's head hurts.Plus a quick read on AI maturity from The Lead conference floor, and why the people who are most "AI-pilled" somehow ended up busier than ever.#watsonweekend #homedepot #remodel #tiktok #comments #everlane #shein

The Watson Weekly for May 18, 2026. Amazon launched a 30-minute delivery to take on DoorDash. eBay shuts down GameStop's bid. OpenAI puts $14 billion behind an enterprise AI play. The Watson Weekly is sponsored by Avalara. For ecommerce brands, tax compliance gets more complicated with every new channel, state, product, and market. Avalara Agentic Tax and Compliance helps automate the work behind the scenes, so merchants can deliver a smoother customer experience — with accurate tax calculation at checkout, clearer visibility into tariffs and duties, and fewer surprises for customers when their order arrives.Avalara works with ecommerce platforms like Shopify, BigCommerce, WooCommerce, and more, helping teams manage compliance faster and scale with more confidence. To learn more about Avalara’s ecommerce compliance solutions, and explore resources built for growing ecommerce brands go to avalara.watsonweekly.com for more details.Amazon Now is live. Thirty-minute delivery for groceries and household essentials, starting in Atlanta, Dallas, Fort Worth, Philadelphia, and Seattle, with seven more cities queued up. Prime members pay $3.99 an order. Non-Prime pays $13.99. The strategy is direct. Smaller fulfillment centers in residential zones, aimed straight at DoorDash, Uber Eats, and Instacart.eBay's board said no to GameStop. Chairman Paul Pressler called the unsolicited bid "neither credible nor attractive." The rejection wasn't really about price. OpenAI launched the OpenAI Deployment Company, valued at $14 billion, with $4 billion freshly raised under TPG's lead. The investor list reads like a consulting roster: McKinsey, Bain, Capgemini. The mission is forward-deployed engineers embedded inside enterprises to rebuild workflows. We also break down the Watson Weekly’s Shopify three-part June webinar series, The Big Green Bag of Promise, with operators from Stanley 1913, Reitmans, and Marine Layer talking honest numbers on enterprise migration. The webinars are not sponsored by Shopify but by Avalara, Domaine, and Pattern, Register here: https://streamyard.com/watch/ibqNx46Z88BfAnd the Investor Minute: Co-pilot Kit ($27M for an AGUI protocol), Cognizant's roughly $600M Australian acquisition, District's $14.7M seed for community marketplaces, Recharge buying Skio for $105M, and PayPal splitting into three new business units.

Three retail moves worth talking about this week.Amazon is retiring the Rufus name. The shopping chatbot has hit roughly 300M users since its 2024 beta, but Amazon is folding the whole thing into Alexa and calling it "Alexa for shopping." We get into why that branding choice is risky given Alexa's history with kids accidentally ordering things and the privacy lawsuits, and what it signals about an "Alexa for healthcare" or "Alexa for law" coming next.The Watson Weekly Weekend edition is sponsored by Avalara - the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. For more details: https://avalaratax.watsonweekly.comThen GameStop's Ryan Cohen and his $56 billion unsolicited bid for eBay, half cash, half stock. The eBay board's response was a 216-word letter calling the offer "neither credible nor attractive." We dig into whether Cohen ever expected a yes, or whether the whole thing was theater aimed at GameStop's stock price and the $100 billion valuation target tied to his own bonus plan.Finally, Lululemon. Heidi O'Neill, 30 years at Nike, took the CEO job on April 22. Founder Chip Wilson is already on record saying she's not the transformation the company needs. We talk about why Alo Yoga and Vuori are pulling away on the celebrity side, why the men's line feels over-assorted, and what it means when Amazon, Costco, and Target all stock convincing dupes of your core product.

Logicbroker brought back Connected Commerce this year, set up outside Central Park, because the conversations the team has been having with customers couldn't wait for the usual conference cycle. The pace of change forced the issue.Rick Watson had the opportunity to speak with Logicbroker CEO Omar Qari at the event.The dominant theme was the agentic shift, and it landed in a specific way for LogicBroker. They sit as the connective tissue between retailers and suppliers, which turns out to be exactly where LLMs are now hunting for product data. The network already has what the models want.A few other things the room kept circling back to. Most AI experiments fail, and attendees were comfortable saying so. One real win out of twenty counts as a strong batting average when the work is closer to science than to product launches. The shape of leadership came up too: the people running companies in this next stretch will need to build things, not just manage the people building things. Omar walked through his own setup, including Claude, a Slack bot he named Omar GPT, and a contract lifecycle tool he wired together himself instead of buying.

Rick Watson talks with Alan Gaffney (CEO, Townchest), Nick Boetcher (Avalara), and Justin Samakow (Mirakl) about what breaks when a marketplace scales.Townchest runs a "shopping for good" program where schools partner with manufacturers to fund themselves through retail sales. A regional launch created nationwide Nexus exposure within weeks, because supporters of a school in Ohio live in Texas, California, and everywhere else. Alan unpacks the hybrid seller-of-record setup that followed: Townchest carries that role for some partners, not others, and the operational cost runs both ways.Justin and Nick cover the back-end. Mirakl's Catalog Transformer normalizes supplier data and pushes it into thousands of school storefronts. Avalara's Avi agent assigns tax codes from a global library against the data Mirakl sends through. The two also get into where strict SLA automation earns its keep (auto-deactivating sellers who miss order acceptance) versus where alerts suffice (high return rates).The Private Storefronts, Shared Suppliers, One Compliance Nightmare webinar was sponsored by Avalara and Mirakl.

Shopify posted its strongest quarter in four years and the stock fell 7%. Rick walks through why Wall Street wasn't impressed, what the LVMH signing actually means for the "Shopify is only for startups" narrative, and the credit-loss line item that's quietly getting bigger.Also this week:Amazon Q1: three numbers Wall Street missed, including a $150B grocery run rate and free cash flow down 95%The Watson Weekly is sponsored by Avalara—the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. Go to avalaratax.watsonweekly.com for more details.Alphabet's Universal Commerce Protocol, now signed by Kingfisher, Target, and WayfairGameStop's $55.5B bid for eBay, with Ryan Cohen pitching it as "Chewy on steroids"Investor Minute: PayPal restructure, Recharge buys Skio for $105M, Cognizant grabs Astreya for $600M, Lipton takes a $245M CVC investment, District raises $14.7M seed

Three stories on the table this week, and none of them small.Saks Global plans to exit Chapter 11 on June 22nd carrying $1.2 billion in debt, with a reorganization plan targeting $9 billion in GMV by fiscal 2030. That's nearly double where they sit today. Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky walk through the vendor mess (720 brands stopped shipping at the worst of it), the repair work underway, and why exiting bankruptcy this leveraged sets up another round of trouble down the road.The Watson Weekly Weekend edition is sponsored by Avalara - the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. For more details: https://avalaratax.watsonweekly.comOver at Victoria's Secret, Australian investor Brett Blundy's BBRC Worldwide has built a roughly 13% stake and is pushing to remove two directors: chair Donna James and Miriam Naficy. The complaint is acquisitions like Adore Me. CEO Hillary Super is running a "path to potential" plan built around body positivity and a return to the Angels heritage. Fiscal 2025 sales are up 5%. The question is whether that's enough to keep the activist quiet.Then earnings. Alphabet did $109B in Q1, with Google Cloud growing 63% YoY to a $20B run rate and a $462B backlog. Amazon hit $181B, AWS grew 28% to $37.5B, and the chip business crossed a $20B run rate of its own. Shopify cleared $100B in quarterly GMV for the first time, with operating income up 88% on the back of all the layoffs and restructuring.The thread underneath all of it: AI compute is getting more expensive, not less. The pricing power is sitting with the infrastructure layer. Amazon, Nvidia, and the LLM owners are collecting the rent. The businesses adopting AI are paying it.

Rick Watson sits down with Mike Hogenmiller, who has spent more than forty years inside home improvement retail and watched the consumer reinvent themselves at least three times.Mike was at The Home Depot in 2001 when the company quietly acquired a 4,000-customer wholesale distributor in Baton Rouge, LA called Your Other Warehouse. That distributor was, at the time, Amazon's biggest and most profitable home-improvement supplier. The acquisition (plus a later decision to stop opening new stores and make existing assets more productive instead) is how Home Depot got roughly 15 years ahead of its closest competitor on digital fulfillment without ever calling it e-commerce.The Watson Weekly interview is sponsored by Avalara - the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. For more details: https://avalaratax.watsonweekly.com.The story Mike tells about then-CEO Craig Menear is the part most people miss. Home Depot wasn't building an e-commerce business. They were building commerce. The customer decided what they bought, when, where, and how it arrived. Everything else followed from that.We also get into:• Why Walmart's culture survives and Target's didn't • The Sprouts problem and what happens when a specialty grocer stops buying with confidence • Why every "Amazon of [insert vertical]" pitch ignores the customer • Where CPG brands keep going wrong inside the store • The advice Mike gives DTC founders thinking about their first physical stores

H&M just listed on a US online marketplace for the first time, and they picked Nordstrom. Rick Watson and Nick Kaplan break down what that signals about both brands, and why marketplaces with no inventory commitment keep working when standalone marketplaces keep dying.Next up, GLP-1 hits the bridal industry. 10% of couples planning weddings this year are on a GLP-1, and more than half started the medication specifically for the wedding. Some users drop a clothing size every two to three weeks, which is a problem when a wedding dress takes nine months and costs five figures. Bridal shops are now asking buyers to sign waivers. Rick and Nick widen the conversation into plus-size assortments, the longevity boom in CPG, and why protein and creatine are having a moment.The Watson Weekly Weekend edition is sponsored by Avalara - the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. For more details: https://avalaratax.watsonweekly.comThen the big one: the e-commerce organization of the future. Unilever cut from 3,000 agencies to under 800, saving half a billion dollars. P&G in-housed media for $750M in fee reductions. A retail "season" is now two weeks. Where does the merchant sit in all of this, and is ChatGPT a better buyer than a human? Nick argues the merchant role contracts but never disappears. Rick pushes on whether the 2026 merchant is really just one person editing algorithms instead of product.Subscribe to the Watson Weekly newsletter at watsonweekly.com.

What does B2B digital transformation look like when your end user is an HVAC contractor standing on a rooftop in 95-degree heat? In this episode of The Watson Weekly, we sit down with Lindsay Althouse(Johnstone Supply), Bryan House (Elastic Path), and Lee Trotter (Data Realm) for a candid panel discussion on modernizing legacy B2B businesses without breaking what already works.Johnstone Supply—a $4 billion HVAC distributor with 450 stores—offers a fascinating case study in real-world transformation. After shifting from a co-op model to an LLC, the company faced a daunting challenge: building a unified digital experience on top of 72 store groups, each running its own ERP system. Lindsay walks us through how a headless commerce architecture made a modern mobile app possible, why deep customer discovery (including interviews with contractors in the field) shaped every design decision, and how a phased alpha-to-beta rollout helped them validate the product with real users.The conversation also dives into Johnstone's AI assistant rollout, where the stakes go beyond bad recommendations—suggesting the wrong furnace part could cause physical harm. Lindsay explains why they chose a private LLM in a restricted environment, limited to verified product data, to keep trust and safety at the center.This B2B webinar is sponsored by Avalara , Elastic Path , and Data Realm.Beyond the case study, the panel unpacks the strategies that separate successful B2B modernization from expensive failures:Why customer-centric design beats feature checklists every timeHow commerce platforms can abstract legacy ERP complexity without a rip-and-replaceChange management tactics for aligning sales teams with digital channels (hint: give reps credit for digital orders)Why every project decision should ladder up to a clearly defined goalWhether you're leading a digital transformation, building B2B products, or just curious about how a 70-year-old distributor competes with Amazon-era expectations, this conversation is packed with practical insight.#B2BCommerce #DigitalTransformation #HeadlessCommerce #HVAC #UX #AI #WatsonWeekly

This week on the Watson Weekly, Rick Watson breaks down the biggest stories shaping commerce, technology, and AI infrastructure.Tim Cook is stepping down as Apple CEO after 14 transformative years that took the company from a $300B market cap to $4 trillion. John Turnis takes the helm September 1st.The Watson Weekly is sponsored by Avalara - the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. For more details: https://avalaratax.watsonweekly.comAnthropic just inked a $100 billion, 10-year infrastructure deal with AWS for 5 gigawatts of compute, while Amazon pours another $5B (potentially $20B more) into the AI lab. Brad Jacobs strikes again: QXO is acquiring Top Build for ~$17B, his third deal in under a year.Plus, a tribute to industry leader Jon Panella.The Investor Minute with 5 items this week from the world of venture capital, acquisitions, and IPOs.

On this weekend edition of The Watson Weekly, Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky break down the biggest stories shaping tech, retail, and AI.Amazon is doubling down on its Anthropic bet — with a new deal that has Anthropic committing $100B to AWS over the next decade, while Amazon pumps in an additional $5B(with up to $20B more on the table) and locks in guaranteed compute capacity. With over 100K customers already using Claude on Bedrock and Amazon holding a reported 15% stake, this partnership is reshaping the cloud AI landscape.Home Depot quietly acquired SIMPL Automation, a scrappy robotics startup that had raised just $100K before piloting its warehouse density technology at Home Depot's Locust Grove DC. Rick and Jessica unpack what this signals about the arms race between Home Depot and Lowe's to modernize supply chain and distribution.The Watson Weekly Weekend edition is sponsored by Avalara - the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. For more details: https://avalaratax.watsonweekly.comPlus, the end of an era at Apple: Tim Cook is stepping down as CEO after 15 years to become executive chairman, handing the reins to 25-year Apple veteran John Ternus. Cook leaves behind a company transformed — from a $350B market cap to $4T, and a services business that now tops $100B. What does a hardware-focused CEO mean for Apple's AI strategy and search partnerships?

When Helen Lo founded Lo & Sons at 65, she was solving her own travel problem. Fifteen years later, her family-run DTC brand is navigating one of the toughest environments in consumer goods: a flood of dupes, shrinking development windows, and a rapidly shifting AI landscape.Rick Watson is joined by Katie Omstead, President at Lo & Sons, and Sonal Gandhi, Chief Content Officer at The Lead. The Watson Weekly interview is sponsored by Avalara - the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. For more details: https://avalaratax.watsonweekly.com.In this Watson Weekly interview, we dig into how Lo & Sons compressed its product development cycle from two years to nine months (with four to five months on the horizon), why 90% of the business remains direct-to-consumer, and how AI is reshaping everything from ideation to inventory. We also preview The Lead, the commerce summit landing in New York on May 20–21, where 3,000 operators and 150 speakers will gather — no vendor spin, just real talk on building brands in 2026.

In this memorial episode of the Watson Weekly, host Rick Watson is joined by Kelly Goetsch, President, Pipe17 Jeff Oh, Growth Leader, Commerce, Publicis Sapient, Jason “Retailgeek” Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer, Publicis, Giancarlo Anania, Senior Director, Global Strategic Alliances & GTM — Partner & Ecosystem Strategy, and Octavio Delgado, Digital eCommerce Engineering Leader, GM to celebrate the life and legacy of Jon Panella, the Group Vice President at Publicis Sapient and a titan of the retail technology industry.Over a career spanning more than 30 years, Jon became a cornerstone of the commerce world, known as much for his encyclopedic knowledge as for his role as a super connector and information broker.The conversation dives into the personal stories that defined Jon, including:A Master Mentor: Colleagues share how Jon led by example, always sharing recognition and lifting those around him.The "Old-School Gentleman": The panel reflects on Jon’s diplomatic nature, his Socratic method of leadership, and his unique ability to treat competitors with kindness and generosity.Industry Presence: From the halls of trade shows to his leadership as Chairman of the MACH Alliance, Jon’s influence was felt globally.Life Beyond Commerce: A look at Jon’s deep devotion to his family—particularly his wife, Linda—and his unwavering (and championship-winning) love for the Pittsburgh Steelers.On May 2, a celebration of the life of Jon Panella will take place in Fort Worth,Texas.

Today on the Watson Weekly: Google treats compute like a moat, Amazon finally figures out groceries, Vinted runs the Amazon playbook in Europe, Apple shows up late to the glasses party — and finally, The Investor Minute with 5 items this week from the world of venture capital, acquisitions, and IPOs.The Watson Weekly is sponsored by Avalara - the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. For more details: https://avalaratax.watsonweekly.comGoogle's Compute Discipline — Compute isn't just infrastructure anymore, it's the moat.Amazon's Grocery Crystallizes — The 2025 shareholder letter dropped a $150 billion gross grocery number. Vinted's Breakout — 47% GMV growth to €10.8 billion. Apple's Glasses Play: Late but Lethal

Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky break down three stories reshaping the consumer and tech landscape. First, why GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro are expected to unlock $13B in new retail spending — and which brands stand to win as 80% of users size down. Then, Nike's latest innovation shake-up: new chief Andy Caine steps in as the stock slides 32%, with Project Amplify, Nike Mind, and Aerofit on the horizon. The Watson Weekly Weekend edition is sponsored by Avalara - the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. For more details: https://avalaratax.watsonweekly.com/Finally, Amazon's $200B and Google's $185B infrastructure bets — and why Sundar Pichai spends an hour a week personally rationing compute.Subscribe to the newsletter at watsonweekly.com.

The Agentic Debate Series Lunch @ Shoptalk Las Vegas 2026, Presented by Logicbroker. Recorded live in Las Vegas on March 24, 2026. Rick Watson hosts an agentic commerce debate with three retail practitioners who aren't selling anything — just calling it like they see it.Chris Silver (CTO, JustFoodforDogs), Gina Lombardo (VP of Digital, Retrofête), and Dave Finnegan (Managing Director, BlackFinn Partners) go head-to-head on three questions the entire industry is dancing around:Will ads ever work inside AI agents — or does injecting ads into a trusted conversation destroy the whole model? Is agentic commerce actually going to drive incremental revenue, or is it a hype cycle with a nice deck? And the big one: are websites doomed when an AI agent can just buy for you?The answers are more nuanced — and more honest — than what you're hearing from the main stage. Topics include cost-per-action ad models, why "retail therapy" isn't going away, how luxury brands could use agents to increase AOV, the consumer trust crisis around hallucinations, and why your product data strategy matters more than your payments infrastructure right now.If you're a merchant trying to figure out what to actually do about agentic commerce in 2026, this is the conversation.The Agentic Debate Series Lunch @ Shoptalk Las Vegas 2026, Presented by Logicbroker, was sponsored by Logicbroker, Avalara, SCAYLE, and Fortier.Timestamps0:00 - Introduction01:45 - Rick Watson setting the scene/background05:10 - Panel members welcomed07:35 - Will ads ever work in a trusted medium?24:43 - Sponsor message from Logicbroker CEO Omar Qari24:13 - Agentic commerce: a nothingburger or incremental?49:38 - Sponsor message from SCAYLE Commerce Engine, Jake Wright52:07 - Are websites doomed?#watsonliveatshoptalk #agenticcommerce #nothingburger #advertising #website

Amazon cuts USPS volume, BNPL shapes where Gen Z gets their teeth cleaned, and why your product data is now an AI infrastructure problem.This Watson Weekly episode covers: The Amazon-USPS tentative deal and what a 20% volume reduction actually signals about Amazon's logistics endgame. The Watson Weekly is sponsored by Avalara - the agentic AI platform automating global tax and compliance for leading eCommerce brands. For more details: https://avalaratax.watsonweekly.comNew April 2026 data on Buy Now Pay Later — not an acquisition tool, a retention weapon. Walmart-backed Eko and the quiet war for AI-ready product catalogs. How Revolve turns an absurd return rate into a full-price sales machine. The Investor Minute with Accenture's Ookla acquisition, ProfitMind's Series A, Lio's $30M procurement automation raise, and OpenAI buying Promptfoo.

Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky break down three retail stories that challenge conventional wisdom this week.Revolve runs a 60% return rate — triple the online average — and just posted a 60% profit surge. They explain how baking return costs into margins and offering frictionless two-day shipping produces 80% full-price sell-through and a customer base that treats their bedroom like a fitting room. Physical storefronts in Aspen and LA are next.The Watson Weekly Weekend edition is sponsored by Avalara — automated tax compliance built for Shopify merchants, from calculation to returns. For more details: https://avalara.watsonweekly.com/Lowe's just launched Home Care Plus: $99 a year gets you two Red Vest associate visits for dryer vent cleaning, HVAC filter swaps, smoke detector batteries, and water heater flushes. The real story is what Lowe's gets in return — appliance age data and a direct line to upsell the aging homeowner market.And Buy Now, Pay Later is no longer just a checkout option. Millennials and Gen Z are 13x more likely than Baby Boomers to choose a merchant based on available financing. Fifty-five percent of Gen Z say installment options influence their choice of healthcare provider. BNPL is now a customer acquisition channel — and merchants paying 4.5–5% in fees may be getting the better end of the deal.

Rick Watson breaks down four stories shaping e-commerce and retail this week: Shopify's partner town hall reveals a company that treats API chaos as a brand attribute — and why that's a problem for any hyperscaler ambition. Lowe's bets $99 can put a red vest inside your home twice a year, and why that physical touchpoint is worth more than any app can replicate. The Watson Weekly is sponsored by Avalara — automated tax compliance built for Shopify merchants, from calculation to returns. For more details: https://avalara.watsonweekly.com/USPS wants an 8% fuel surcharge — the first in its history — and what the gap between that and Amazon's 3.5% tells you about structural efficiency. And Allbirds is done: not restructuring, not pivoting — dissolved, with a $4 billion brand selling for $39 million. Plus the Investor Minute: Zipline's $200M Series H, Cintas acquiring UniFirst for $5.5B, OpenAI snapping up Astral, Puratos buying Dawn Foods, and why Bark isn't going private yet.

Apple just turned 50. Amazon quietly acquired two robotics companies. And Allbirds — once valued at $4B— sold for $39M. Rick Watson and Nick Kaplan work through what these three stories have in common: the relentless pressure to find a next act before the first one runs out.The Watson Weekly Weekend edition is sponsored by Avalara — automated tax compliance built for Shopify merchants, from calculation to returns. For more details: https://avalara.watsonweekly.com/Topics this week: whether Tim Cook's Apple needs a visionary or just needs to win in AI, what Amazon's Rivr and Fauna acquisitions tell you about where last-mile delivery is actually going, and why Allbirds is a cautionary tale that applies to almost every DTC brand built on a single product. Plus: ambient AI through AirPods, the Rounders theory of the AI market, and why Rick switched from ChatGPT to Claude.Subscribe for weekly retail and commerce analysis: watsonweekly.com

Rick Watson is out. Nick Kaplan is in — and he's not giving the mic back.In this special Kaplan Wednesday episode, Nick takes the research prompts Watson built for his agentic commerce analysis and turns them on the very stories they were designed to interrogate.On the docket: Adyen's white paper claiming infrastructure is the constraint on agentic commerce (it isn't — and their own 95% AML false positive rate says why). Shopify's one-toggle Agentic Storefront promise and the data ownership problem it quietly creates. Klaviyo and Reebok Europe's Locale Aware Catalogs announcement — and the 149,999 merchants who aren't Reebok. The EU AI Act, which starts enforcement in five months and would like a word with every agentic protocol on the market. And the number that breaks every GMV projection: only 14% of shoppers trust AI recommendations enough to transact.The Kaplan Weekly is sponsored by Avalara. — automated tax compliance built for Shopify merchants, from calculation to returns. For more details: https://avalara.watsonweekly.com/The constraint isn't infrastructure. It's trust. Build that first.Happy April Fools. Rick will be back next week.Subscribe for weekly retail and commerce analysis: watsonweekly.com#ecommerce #kaplanwednesday #AIact #watsonwednesday

Live from the chaos of Shoptalk 2026 — where every booth promised an AI future and the floor proved retail is still fundamentally a contractual promise to a customer. Retail and e-commerce influencer Rick Watson is out on assignment in Las Vegas.This episode cuts through the agentic commerce noise. We get into what AEO (Agentic Commerce Optimization) actually requires operationally, why Shopify continues to eat the market while facing real limits at enterprise scale, and what the Stripe-Shopify relationship tells you about where payments infrastructure is heading.The Watson Weekend is sponsored by Avalara. For more information on Avalara, visit - https://avalara.watsonweekly.com/Plus: the honest conversation about AI ads, MCP protocols, and why building an AI Council too early might be the fastest way to slow your company down.Fix your margin problem first. Agentic commerce will not rescue a broken business model — it will just surface the damage faster.Subscribe to the Watson Weekly newsletter: https://www.watsonweekly.com

Darren Heaphy has spent his career at the intersection of e-commerce and logistics — AOL, Scurry, and now eDesk, where he leads product. His take on AI-driven support is blunt: brands are holding AI to a standard they never applied to their seasonal hires, and that double standard is costing them.In this episode, Rick Watson interviews and discusses the real shift happening in customer support — not chatbots replacing agents, but human teams moving from execution to orchestration. Darren calls it the "digital colleague" framework: start AI on low-risk work, build trust through auditability, and expand its scope as it earns it.The Watson Weekly interview is sponsored by Avalara — automated tax compliance built for Shopify merchants, from calculation to returns. For more details: https://avalara.watsonweekly.com/We also dig into a number most brands are sitting on without realizing it: 30–40% of support tickets are pre-purchase questions. Not complaints. Buying signals. And AI can convert those around the clock.What you'll hear:Why AI mistakes feel scarier than human mistakes — and whether that fear is rationalThe "glass box" approach to AI transparency that actually builds team trustHow support roles are evolving from typing to judgmentWhy the fundamentals — speed, accuracy, reduced uncertainty — haven't changed and won'tIf you've been watching AI take over the support conversation and wondering where your team fits, this one's for you.#CustomerSupport #AIinEcommerce #watsonweekly #interview

Rick Watson breaks down four stories worth your attention before Shoptalk.OpenAI's internal "code red" and what a pivot to enterprise and coding revenue actually signals ahead of a potential IPO; Dollar General and Dollar Tree earnings — both beating expectations, but with very different stories underneath the numbers; Apollo's credit chief calling private equity valuations "literally fiction," and why that matters for tech-focused PE portfolios still carrying COVID-era marks; and the three questions Rick is bringing to his Agentic Debate at Shoptalk this week — including whether brands are being sold snake oil on AI.Plus the Investor Minute: Agent Mail, Rhoda AI, Cart.com, Ernesta, and Quince.Watson Weekly is Sponsored by Avalara — Shopify's tax automation partner for US and global compliance., for more details: https://avalara.watsonweekly.com/

Dollar stores are quietly winning, Prime Day is jumping the calendar, and the AI arms race just hit its first major reboot. Rick Watson and Jessica Lesesky break down what actually moved this week in retail and commerce.Dollar General doubled its operating profit, Dollar Tree shed Family Dollar and beat estimates, and Five Below kept growing — while 99 Cents Only filed for bankruptcy. The value shift is real, and it's not just low-income shoppers driving it.Amazon is moving Prime Day to June. Is this a Q2 earnings play, a back-to-school land grab, or both? And what does that mean for Walmart, Target, and everyone else chasing the same wallet?The Watson Weekly Weekend edition is sponsored by Avalara. For more information on Avalara, visit - https://avalara.watsonweekly.com/Then: the agentic reboot. Adyen's co-CEO drops a white paper on infrastructure problems in agentic commerce. OpenAI's applications chief reportedly called a "code red" on internal focus. Amazon is adding senior engineer oversight to rein in autonomous code. Anthropic is quietly picking up enterprise market share — and OpenAI's people. Rick's verdict: we are in the early innings, and the wholesale strategy changes are just beginning.Chapters00:00 — Welcome & Intro01:14 — Dollar Store Earnings: Why Dollar General, Dollar Tree, and Five Below are winning — and who isn't04:24 — Amazon Prime Day Moves to June07:23 — The Agentic Reboot: Adyen's white paper, OpenAI's "code red," Anthropic's enterprise surge, and what it all means for brands building on AI

Tom Schmitt is CEO of Radial, North America's largest third-party fulfillment provider — and a company about to become something bigger. As part of the Bpostgroup's rebranding to Paxon, Radial is merging with its sister companies into a single global logistics brand built on decades of e-commerce infrastructure.The Watson Weekly is sponsored by Avalara. For more information on Avalara, visit - https://avalara.watsonweekly.com/Tom sat down with Rick Watson to talk about what he's actually seeing on the ground as AI enters supply chain — and the answer is more nuanced than most headlines suggest.Three things worth your time from this episode:The trust gap is real and measurable. Radial surveyed 1,000 US consumers: nearly two-thirds are uncomfortable sharing payment information with AI agents. That's not a technology problem — it's a brand problem operators need to solve first.Most AI projects are failing their ROI test right now — and that's expected. Tom's crawl, walk, run framework isn't a hedge; it's a diagnosis. Demand forecasting and pick-path optimization have measurable returns today. Fully autonomous warehouse orchestration does not — yet.Agentic commerce has a data standards problem nobody is talking about. Radial is a founding member of ONX — the Order Network Exchange — an open industry standard for how order, inventory, and fulfillment data moves between systems. Agentic commerce only works if agents read the same language. That work is already underway.Plus: the history of GSI Commerce, how Michael Rubin invented the direct-to-consumer industry, and why Fred Smith's old line about FedEx still tells you everything about where supply chain AI is headed.Subscribe to the Newsletter: Get it at https://www.watsonweekly.com/subscribe