The Weekly Trend

 In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the the recent rise in the U.S. Dollar and how that is interesting when paired with Emerging Markets and Small Caps outperformance. They also discuss the current range the S&P 500 has been in since May, the failed breakout in long-term interest rates, market breadth, and thinking in terms of percentages rather than nominal dollar values. 

 In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the SpaceX IPO taking place today, how the different indices are treating SpaceX, areas of the market that are trying to breakout to new all-time highs, the recent price action for banks and the U.S. Dollar. They also discuss what they would like to see out of the consumer discretionary sector, how transports are still strong, and the World Cup kicking off this week.  

 In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss the SpaceX IPO and treatment from major indices and the tough week for cryptocurrencies and commodities. They also discuss the lackluster market breadth and the continued thin market and the strong move from the U.S. Dollar.  

 In this week's episode, David Zarling, Ian McMillan, and Kevin Firari discuss Nvidia performance versus Semiconductors and the broad market as a whole, areas of the market that are underperforming, equal weight S&P 500 (RSP) out to all time highs, recent AAII survey results, interesting names within the Nasdaq that are performing well, fixed income, and potential rate hikes. 

In Episode 299, David Zarling and Ian McMillan break down a market that remains heavily driven by semiconductors, with tech and energy the only sectors above their relative 200-day lines versus the S&P 500. They discuss the dominance of AI-related leadership, emerging markets’ semiconductor exposure, Apple’s relative strength, and whether software could benefit from a rotation if AI enthusiasm broadens. The conversation also weighs growing warning signs beneath the surface, including weak breadth, rising rates, struggling financials and homebuilders, and the possibility that the market is either setting up for rotation or becoming increasingly vulnerable after a narrow advance.

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the areas of the market at all time highs, including the Magnificent Seven, and how bullish it is for market participants being willing to buy at all time highs. They also discuss international areas that continue to perform well, whether we are witnessing a similar period to the dot com bubble of the late 90's and early 2000's, along with other macroeconomic narratives that are at play, and how the narratives truly don't matter at the end of the day.  

 In this week's episode David and Kevin discuss the areas of the market going out to all-time highs, the return profile if you buy at all time highs, and the continued effect semiconductors, storage, and electronic components is having across multiple industries and sectors. They also discuss the areas of international equities that are performing well, how international performance is also tilted towards semiconductor exposure, the Magnificent Seven, bearish sentiment continuing, market breadth, and is the divergence between equity indices and risk-on areas a fixed income.  

 In this week's episode Ian and Kevin discuss the continued strength out of Semiconductors and Technology, while other areas of the market failed to reach or surpass previous highs. They also discuss the strength out of Asia while Latin America cools off, Bitcoin, Small Caps, and that they would like to see risk-on behavior continued in the fixed income space. 

In Episode 295 of the Weekly Trend podcast, David and Ian break down the market’s stunning return to new all-time highs, unpacking what the sharp V-shaped recovery means for investors, advisors, and anyone still waiting for a pullback that may never come. They explore the significance of the S&P 500 reclaiming its 200-day moving average, the psychology of chasing strength after a fast rebound, why weak breadth still deserves attention, and how leadership from semiconductors, AI, crypto, and other high-beta areas may be signaling a renewed risk-on environment. The conversation also dives into the limits of narrative-driven investing, the value of technical analysis during fast-moving market shifts, and how their rules-based Adaptive Select ETF responded by moving back into participation after a brief defensive period. 

In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 being back above a 200 day moving average, where do you start with reconstructing your portfolio, the strength out of semiconductors and other risk-on areas of the market. They also discuss how software, private credit, Bitcoin, MAGS, and FNGS continue to lag. Other topics discussed are International equities and is the move in oil and energy over? 

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 moving below 6500, continued strength early in the week followed by weakness moving into the weekend, Magnificent Seven and mega-cap tech leading to the downside again, the relationship between energy stocks and oil, international areas holding up well on a relative basis, and what they are seeing in fixed income and commodities.  

 In this week's episode Ian and Kevin discuss the major indices now below their 200-day moving averages, what it would look like if the S&P 500 does not find support at 6500, the rough look for long-term treasuries and fixed income in general, trade-weighted U.S. Dollar fighting to get back above 100, the performance out of energy and how that parallels 2022 behavior, and how international equities need to find support.  

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the bullish engulfing candles witnessed on Monday, but no follow-through in sight with the S&P back below 6800. They also discuss the relationship between oil and energy prices, when else have we seen Financials be the worst performer to start the year, breadth deterioration, what it means if XLP breaks down while outperforming the rest of the market on a relative basis, fixed income and interest rates, international equities, and what is going on with Private Credit. Also discussed is precious metals, precious metals miners, changes in membership of the S&P 500, and cryptocurrency. 

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the continued chop in the S&P 500, bearish sentiment, retail buying, energy stocks with the increase in oil prices, support and resistance, theses for the range in the S&P 500 being further consolidation and then a move higher, or the forming of a market top.  

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 continuing to be rangebound, sector rotation and industry performance during different points of the market cycle. They also discuss what it would look like if there is a mid-year 8-12% correction which would be perfectly normal with mid-term year seasonality. Other topics discussed is cryptocurrencies, Nvidia earnings reaction, materials and miners, microcaps, international equities, interest rates, private credit, and the U.S. Dollar.  

 In this week's episode David and Kevin discuss the S&P 500 continuing to be within a tight range, bearish market sentiment with large amounts of short selling, what would happen if the Magnificent 7 and software begin to participate to the upside, the continued strength internationally, precious metals, continued strength in value sectors, and what could conflict in Iran mean for the market.  

In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P remaining range-bound, differentiation between S&P 500 performance and the average performance of it's constituents. They also discuss market breadth, sentiment, the continued drawdown in software, how homebuilders are starting to look interesting along with transportation stocks even with the rough week for trucking stocks. They also discuss seasonality moving into the second half of February, interest rates and what a move lower in rates might mean for the broader market. 

In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the move to the downside in Bitcoin and other crypto assets, the poor performance from mega cap names and software, the strength out of industrials, financials, small caps and mid caps. They also talk about market breadth, precious metals and materials, potential false breakdowns, and risk on and risk off behavior.

 In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss how the strongest areas appear to be getting hit the hardest to close out the week, an update on seasonality, sector rotation dynamics, if the move in precious metals and mining is over, the VIX, and large cap tech participation. 

In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the continued move to the upside in precious metals and the relative relationship between the metals and their miners. They also discuss the 5-standard deviation move in Japanese Bonds, signs for risk on/risk off behavior, international equities, energy, small caps, January seasonality, market breadth, crypto, and fixed income. 

In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss how mega cap growth names are lagging behind, while small caps and international equities continue to outperform. Does this mean 2026 will be a year of differentiation? They also discuss precious metals, crypto, interest rates, and some market relationships they find interesting. 

In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss how metals and mining are off to a good start this year, the Russell 2000 with a nice setup again, international equities, areas of Financials that are performing well, a mixed bag from semiconductors, and crypto miners. 

In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss areas of the market that had a good year in 2025, like international equities, metals and mining, precious metals, and also what areas had a poor year in 2025. They also discuss semiconductors in the broader context of market sector makeup and an update on the Santa Claus rally. 

In this week's episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss growth versus value, high beta versus low volatility, market cap relative relationships, and other risk-on/risk-off relationships to close out the year and what might be in store in 2026. They also discuss international equities, Bitcoin, and how interest rates continue to appreciate against Fed rate cuts. 

In this week's episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss if we are seeing rotation out of tech and growth areas of the market into value and small cap focused areas. They also discuss international areas that are holding up well, bitcoin, poor performance from the consumer staples sector, precious metals, and materials.  

In this week's episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss the areas of the market that are out to all time highs, improved breadth, what is supporting the bullish thesis, 5x leverage funds, cryptocurrency, and interest rates. 

 In this week's episode, Ian McMillan and Kevin Firari discuss the price action following Nvidia earnings, reinforcement of key price levels for the S&P 500, rotation into later-cycle sectors like Healthcare, Energy, and Financials, Fund Manager Survey cash levels, the VIX, and what we could see play out to end 2025. 

 In this week's episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss market breadth and participation, areas of healthcare that have been holding up well, like biotech and pharmaceuticals. They also discuss whether the leadership from large cap tech and semiconductors is over, how software is at an interesting level, Michael Burry closing his fund, Bitcoin, and an update on fixed income.  

 In this week's episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss the current pullback in equities, important levels moving forward, the US Dollar, Gold and Gold Miners, International areas still holding up well, and earnings reactions.  

Hosts David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss the state of the markets amid a split environment where large-cap tech and semiconductor stocks drive the S&P 500 to new highs while many smaller stocks lag behind. They note mixed earnings reactions among major companies like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, and highlight signs of narrowing market breadth and potential caution signals such as the “Hindenburg Omen.” The pair also analyze trends in Bitcoin, commodities, and interest rates, emphasizing the continued dominance of mega-cap stocks, strong seasonality for Q4, and the importance of sticking with prevailing uptrends. 

 In this week’s episode David and Ian discuss the areas of the market looking to go out at new all time highs, an update on Gold and Gold Miners, International Equities, risk-on indicators, investor sentiment, cryptocurrencies, interest rates and fixed income areas of the market. 

 In this week’s episode David and Ian discuss the inside week for the market, regional banks struggling while big banks are holding up better, small caps and biotech, is the move over for gold and gold miners, and looking forward at potential scenarios on market movements. 

In this week’s episode David and Ian discuss recent market developments, including ongoing breadth divergences and recent deterioration in Financial and Home Construction stocks. They highlight interesting areas of relative strength as well as how Friday’s downside day could just be one-day volatility or the start of another correction. Tune in to find out the latest market developments through the lense of technical analysis.

 In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss areas still at or moving to all time highs, risk on versus risk off behavior, potential challenges to the continued bullish thesis, sentiment, potential reactions to a potential correction, the government shutdown, and postseason baseball. 

In this week’s episode, Ian and Kevin discuss how it seems like stocks could pause and consolidate to start October, interesting relative charts, risk on areas in equities and fixed income, the continued performance from the mining industry, commodities, and transportation tech funds. 

In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss areas of the market moving out to recent or all time highs, an update on small caps, the proposed change to earnings reports, rate cuts, areas of positive performance in underperforming sectors, precious metals, and emerging markets. 

 In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss how precious metals and precious metals miners continue to do well, homebuilders are showing strength, lumber continuing to move lower, whether this is a start of a larger move in Biotech, areas of strength within small caps, moves in interest rates, and other areas of the market that are consolidating.  

 In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss financials going out to all-time highs, a review of August seasonal expectations versus actual performance over the month, the consolidation within the technology sector with industries like semiconductors, an update on precious metals and precious metals miners. They also discuss the areas of industrials that are performing well, like aerospace related companies, and they also discuss the areas abroad that continue to perform well. 

 In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss the fear in the market going into today's large move to the upside. They also discuss the things confirming the thesis that the market will continue to move higher, how small caps are potentially bottoming on a relative basis versus large caps, and international areas of the market starting to show signs of relative strength again.  

  In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss the move in small caps this week and the 80% upside day, Dow Jones trying to move to all-time highs, international areas that are still showing strength, crypto participation and divergence, and how important it is to simply participate in the current trend rather than trying to time market tops and bottoms.  

 In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss the reduction in Breadth, recent moves in AAPL and LLY, continued performance of momentum, continued bearish sentiment, and what is going on with precious metals.  

In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss the down start to August, seasonality, market breadth, the increase in the put/call ratio and the VIX. They also discuss areas that are showing relative strength and relative weakness, like growth vs. value, high beta vs. low volatility, and momentum. They also discuss how the overall trend in the market remains up, precious metals and industrial metals, Bitcoin, and fixed income updates. 

 In this week’s episode, Ian and Kevin talk about the continued signs of risk-on behavior, like growth versus value, Bitcoin continuing higher, alt coins moving higher, international areas of fixed income, and convertible bonds. They also discuss how Chinese equities are beginning to look interesting, the Russell 2000 and return contribution rates.  

In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss what it means to be at all-time highs, the recent breakout for Bitcoin, how precious metals have performed recently, international equities, and what sectors of the market are currently "hands off" and which ones are performing well on a relative basis. 

In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss the areas of the market going out to new all time highs, certain relative relationships, like high beta to low volatility and growth versus value. They also discuss how although growth areas like technology are currently leaders, other areas of the market are still participating to the upside, a weak U.S. Dollar, interest rates, risk on areas of fixed income, and Oil. 

In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss the current sentiment in the market, the Put/Call Ratio, major indices and areas of the market that are participating to the upside and trading above their 200 day moving averages, international equities, and interest rates. 

In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss the sideways action in broad indices and the resurgence in metals, particularly Gold and Platinum. Small Caps continue to struggle, even with strong performance overseas. The Dollar holds below 101 and likely confirms new downtrend, coinciding with the spike in Crude prices.

 In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss areas of the market trading above their 200 day moving averages and reaching all time highs. They also discuss commodities and if Oil will get back above $65/barrel, if the US Dollar with stay weak, and what they expect from interest rates.  

In this week's episode, David and Kevin discuss the areas of the market at or reaching important areas of supply, international areas of the market that are continuing to hold up well, weekly versus monthly candles, and the strength out of momentum. 

In this week’s episode, David and Ian discuss the potential new regime we have in stocks, with the S&P 500 back above its 200 day moving average. Bitcoin continues to behave nicely, reaching all-time highs this past week. Tech and Aerospace names lead the way. And what impact will interest rates play going forward, now that they are back to their 2023 highs?