Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast

This week, our 3 Things are:Rates vs. oil. There’s been a breakdown in the relationship. Critical thresholds. We’re highlighting three worth watching.    REITs vs. BDCs. Two peas in a pod, right?     

This week, our 3 Things are:Deflation. It’s a check on the market’s most significant near-term risk. Credit loss cycle. Is it upon us? CCC signal. What the weakest credits are suggesting. 

This week, our 3 Things are:Hyperscaler debt issuance. Funding the AI build-out goes global. Next-wave growth. Beyond AI and wealthy household spending, these forces will help.  Industrial Renaissance. How real is it?

This week, our 3 Things are:1. Waller redirect. One of the Fed’s thought leaders says risks have changed. We’ll dig into what he’s seeing. 2. Income slowdown. The raw material that drives the economy is running into headwinds. 3. 2026 default forecasts. We’ll get the latest update from KBRA Analytics’ Eric Rosenthal.

This week, our 3 Things are:Rates’ risk. What does it mean for credit?Stock vs. bond volatility. Something has to give.  Consumer color. We canvas bellwether transcripts for an up-to-date view.  

This week, our 3 Things are:Jobs rebound. Have we reached an inflection point?Shock watch. Inflation, energy, and food are all set to move the wrong way. Is this priced into risk?  Historic uncertainty. Three experienced voices weigh in on what’s in front of us.  

This week, our 3 Things are:1. Changing narratives. Better visibility and perspective on issues that drove a selloff in risk earlier this spring.2. Earnings surge. It’s not just tech. 3. Nonlinear oil move. The risk of a spike is growing.

This week, our 3 Things are:1. What we’re watching. Fresh off the press from our Forward Look publication.2. Defaults two ways. We compare market prices to the bottom-up view. 3. Oil price perspective. Getting past the threat of “$100 oil.”

This week, our 3 Things are:Earnings growth. One observer describes earnings growth as “soaring.” Is that right?Bank exposure to nonbanks. Should we be worried about the linkage?Constructive pessimism. It’s present and it’s bondholder-friendly.

This week, our 3 Things are:1. Growth shock vs. inflation shock. What’s the biggest risk?2. Big bank credit color. Real-time read on credit from the largest lenders.3. IMF sours. Its latest forecasts recognize a laundry list of risks.

This week, our 3 Things are:Resiliency. The U.S. economy has demonstrated that in spades. But is it sustainable?Dimon on credit. Getting past the headlines.Consumer trends. We identify three flying under the radar.

This week, our 3 Things are:1. Shock risk. Risk is rising, but will credit reprice?2. Loan growth surge. Where did that come from?3. Earnings relief. Good news is on the horizon.

This week, our 3 Things are:1. Earnings vs. oil. We have an interesting comparison between the two.2. Systemic leverage. Don’t lose sight of where we stand.3. Stagflation. Is it really back?

This week, our 3 Things are:1. Bond havens. The flight to quality has shifted.2. Oracle reassures. An AI lightning rod reports earnings and outlook.3. Risk reprice. Where is it happening?

This week, our 3 Things are:Productivity boom or savings drain? Peeling the onion on sources of growth.Labor pessimism. Is the jobs picture really “weak and fragile”? Inflation pressure. It’s building.

This week, our 3 Things are:1. Fed in flux. Moving toward neutral.2. Single-Bs widening. What does it signal?3. HALOs. A new investing acronym and a sign of the times.

This week, our 3 Things are:1. Delinquencies warning. Is that really a thing???2. Utilities unicorns. Can a sector be both defensive and growth?3. K-Shapes. They’re present in places beyond the consumer.

This week, our 3 Things are:1. Retail sales disconnect. It’s normalizing, but not as weak as the latest data.2. Labor’s lost leverage. More of the economic spoils are going to capital—is that a bad thing?3. Rising hyperscaler issuance. Massive new issue supply is forcing investors to rethink the status quo.

This week, our 3 Things are:Margin lift. They’re high and expected to go higher.Excitable risk. Volatility is back. Just how much matters to credit fundamentals?The path of interest rates. The consensus is calling for a 4-bp range for the 10-year over the next six quarters. What does that tell you?

This week, our 3 Things are:1. What we’re watching. Here’s what we believe will shape credit valuation over the near-term.2. Visa/Mastercard spending update. The latest read from the global payments titans. 3. KBRA DLD default forecasts. Our own Eric Rosenthal weighs in with his outlook for 2026.

This week, our 3 Things are:Bond vigilantes. Volatility has come to sovereign debt markets. What’s next?The cost of gloom. The Economist newspaper says it’s the world’s main economic risk. Biggest risks. Speaking of risk, here’s what market participants believe pose the biggest risk to market stability.

This week, our 3 Things are:1. Housing headwinds. Are we close to unlocking real value? 2. Big bank credit color. Where did the cockroaches go? 3. Supply surge. 2026 figures to see record-setting issuance. What does it mean for spreads?

This week, our 3 Things are:1. Economic tension. Underneath the Goldilocks data are a number of competing forces. 2. Fed decision-making. Changes are afoot. 3. Trigger points. Where does risk reprice?

This week, our 3 Things are:Oil glut. The price of the commodity has plunged and is likely to stay that way in 2026.Credit cycle. Phases are irregular, and the conditions for pushing into recession are dormant. 2026 themes. We tally up things worth watching.

This week, our 3 Things are:1. Spread wideners. Dormant forces have awakened. 2. Private credit color. Fresh views from Goldman’s financials conference. 3. 2026 risks. A better-than-expected 2025 is no reason for complacency.

This week, our 3 Things are:Coming tailwinds. Sizable stimulus is set to hit in 2026. Fed drama. It seeped into markets this week. Is it here to stay? Private credit data update. Some weakness as you would expect, but surprising fundamental strength. We’ll catch up with Bill Cox, KBRA’s Chief Rating Officer, on the topic.

This week, our 3 Things are:Home Depot’s warning. Consumer durability is under pressure.Private credit growth. Tracking leveraged finance growth is more relevant. AI bubble and credit. Much-needed perspective on the topic of the day. 

This week, our 3 Things are:Holiday spending. Will the wealthiest among us offset the headwinds?Surging earnings. It’s more than just mega tech. Senior Loan Officer color. After Tricolor and First Brands, the Fed’s out with its latest survey. 

This week, our 3 Things are:Private credit color. Two big lenders weigh in with what they are seeing.Reduced uncertainty. Wait a minute! There’s plenty of uncertainty, right? Consumer belt tightening. It’s spreading. 

This week, our 3 Things are:Consumer no confidence. Surveys, for what they’re worth, are headed in the wrong direction. Credit course correction. Lenders everywhere are scrubbing portfolios and processes. That comes at a cost. To cut or not to cut. All of a sudden, December’s in play.

This week, our 3 Things are:GM blowout. What does this signal about the broader economy? U.S. consumer. We’ve got useful updates on loan quality and spending strength. Bubbles. The chatter is increasing. We’ve got some thoughts.

This week, our 3 Things are:Cycle turn? Lots of press this week on credit deterioration. How real is it?Big bank credit color. It’s an important counterpoint to our first Thing.Oil’s price drop. That’s good for consumers and businesses, right? Well …

This week, our 3 Things are:Credit “froth.” How real is it? Growth quality. The outlook is brighter, but is it vulnerable?Q3 earnings. A solid headline growth number, but weakness underneath.

This week, our 3 Things are: Inflation target. It’s quietly slipping. Bond scarcity. Demand versus supply. Capex supercycle. We’ll compare equity versus debt.

This week, our 3 Things are: Maximum employment. What does that have to do with unemployment?  Retail therapy. We peel the onion on a strong retail sales report. Risk versus uncertainty. The difference explains risk market moves.

This week, our 3 Things are: Credit’s durability. Why has the asset class held up so well in 2025? Risk concentrations. A couple are noteworthy and worth monitoring. Distressed debt exchanges. We highlight a new report by Ed Altman and our own Eric Rosenthal.

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Economic lines of defense. There are significant countervailing forces to slowdown. 2. Q3 earnings. Still positive growth in the face of rising costs. 3. Jobs revisions. The most important jobs data point this month might be next week, not Friday’s.

This week, our 3 Things are: Spreads vs. yields. Spreads are tight. Yields, not so much. Financial conditions. Don’t lose sight of what normal is. Walmart/Target read-across. The big boxes update us on the U.S. consumer.

This week, our 3 Things are: Earnings momentum. What’s underneath Q2’s double-digit growth headline? 2026 forecasts. Here’s the early read on what forecasters think lies ahead. August jobs. It will likely be the most consequential data release this year.

This week, our 3 Things are: Inflection point? July jobs was a shock, but does it really reveal something different? Ares’ perspective. Insightful comments on the growth of private credit. Maersk’s beat. What it says about global growth.

This week, our 3 Things are: Anatomy of slowdown. Risk markets are flying—how do we get to slowdown? Leveraged loan surge. The market has rebounded from April’s freeze with a vengeance. Is it overheating? KBRA’s default forecast. We’ll check in with Eric Rosenthal for his latest.

This week, our 3 Things are: Growth catalysts. Something must be driving stocks higher. Homebuilder bounce. Is housing finally turning? Tariff bump. Is 15% the new 10%?

This week, our 3 Things are: Big bank color. Here’s how credit is performing among the large lenders. Labor sensitivity. What will it take for employment to crack? European outlook. Our European Macro Strategist updates his views.

This week, our 3 Things are: Delta exuberance. We’ll put a good story in proper perspective.  A forward look at Q3. What will shape credit markets? Whistling past the slowdown. Markets have ripped as uncertainty lifts. Don’t lose sight of the whole picture. 

This week, our 3 Things are: Middle East tension. We’ll think through how important oil volatility is. Powell vs. the LEI. We’ll explore two divergent views of the economy. United Airlines guidance. We’ll revisit the company’s unconventional earnings guidance from April.

This week, our 3 Things are: Data vacuum. Be patient—the meaningful reset is coming. Sand in the gears. While we wait for data, here’s what is forecast. Consumer angst. The Fed’s latest survey reflects growing concern among the less advantaged part of our Two Economies.    

This week, our 3 Things are: Volatility settles. Are we past the storm or merely complacent? “Dangerous” finance. Is The Economist’s characterization accurate or just sensationalistic? Slowdown approaching. As more hard data shows slowdown, we look to this week’s Beige Book for a sentiment shift. 

This week, our 3 Things are: Credit scarcity. Too much money chasing too few bonds? Debt and deficits. Ignore at your own peril. Markets’ round trip. Knowing what we know, and what we don’t—does that make sense?   

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Dimon on credit. JPMorgan Chase’s CEO is concerned about credit. 2. Growth catalysts. They’re out there, right? 3. Earnings outlook. What do Street strategists say?

This week, our 3 Things are: 1. Exuberance. Is it irrational? 2. Labor strength. Here’s where it might crack. 3. Walmart’s outlook. The challenge of dimensioning tariff impact.