Wilmington Mortgage with Tyler Cralle

Rates plummeted to a 6-week low as oil prices continued to fall thanks to more activity in the Strait of Hormuz. In other news, President Trump canceled the bill signing for a bipartisan housing bill, and new home sales fell to the lowest level since January. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates were basically unchanged as Iran negotiations seem to be going nowhere. In other news, Russia is trying to pressure Belarus to get involved in its war with Ukraine, and the Treasury auction for 2-year notes was better than expected. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates rise on murkiness about the Iran peace deal and the announcement that Keir Starmer is resigning as Prime Minister, which marks the 7th PM in a decade. In other news, Alan Greenspan, the longest-serving Federal Reserve Chairman who was appointed by four presidents, died at the age of 100 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Mortgage rates moved higher following Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, though it would be difficult to place the blame solely on the new Fed chief. The market's attention quickly shifted to the Fed's updated rate projections, where nine of the nineteen policymakers now expect at least one rate hike this year, up from none just three months ago. Investors were clearly disappointed by the more hawkish outlook.Still, there was some encouraging news for the bond market. Warsh emphasized the Federal Reserve's commitment to price stability, a message that should resonate with bond investors who remain focused on inflation risks.Outside of monetary policy, the economic data was largely positive. Pending home sales posted their strongest monthly gain since September 2024, signaling renewed activity in the housing market, while retail sales came in well above expectations, suggesting consumers continue to spend despite ongoing economic uncertainties. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

As signs emerged that the Iran war may be winding down, financial markets responded positively. Oil prices plunged, stocks climbed to new record highs, and bond yields moved lower, helped further by a surprisingly strong 20-year Treasury auction that drew solid investor demand.The news wasn't entirely positive, however. The housing sector showed renewed signs of weakness as housing starts fell to their lowest level in five years, highlighting the challenges builders continue to face despite improving financial conditions.Tyler breaks down what the shifting geopolitical landscape means for mortgage rates, the bond market, and the outlook for housing. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

While bond futures fell more than 6 basis points to start the day, they closed almost back to Friday's close after uncertainty about the Iran deal began to emerge. In other news, Homebuilder confidence fell to the second-lowest level in the last nine months and manufacturing activity slowed more than expected in New York. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates fell after President Donald Trump announced a possible deal with Iran, producer prices rose like CPI because of energy spikes, and the 30-year treasury auction was not very good... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Inflation rose to 4.2% in May, the highest annual rate in three years, but the report wasn't quite as alarming as the headline number suggested. Nearly 60% of the monthly increase came from energy prices, as higher oil and gasoline costs continued to ripple through the economy.President Trump praised the report, saying he "loved the inflation," arguing that most of the increase was tied to energy rather than broad-based price pressures. While there is some truth to that interpretation, the comment could become a political liability heading into November as voters continue to grapple with higher prices.Meanwhile, bond markets largely looked past the inflation report. A strong 10-year Treasury auction helped steady yields, limiting the upward pressure on mortgage rates despite the hottest inflation reading since 2023. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Existing-home sales reached the highest level in 2026, tensions rise in the Middle East, and a new report says Social Security is going to be insolvent sooner than originally thought. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates jumped on Friday after the monthly non-farm payroll report came in much hotter than expected. However, there is some good news as consumer inflation expectations were better than expected and the U.S. government could run a slightly smaller budget deficit in 2026. Looking ahead, it's a very busy week for economic data with two inflation reports and an ECB decision. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates continued the roller coaster with a slight dip on Thursday, thanks to a higher-than-expected jump in jobless claims. In other news, Zelensky sends an open letter to Putin to end the war, Hezbollah rejects the ceasefire with Israel, and Elon is on the verge of becoming a trillionaire. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates rose on Wednesday after Ukraine hit Russia and Iran hit Kuwait & Bahrain. In other news, private payrolls saw the biggest gain in 16 months, bond traders are pricing in a rate hike before the end of the year, and sellers are delisting their homes at the fastest rate in 13 years...strengthng This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

A new report shows a strengthening manufacturing sector in May, job openings jump to a 17-month high while quits fall to a 6-year low, inflation rises in Europe as energy prices soar, and Trump and Netanyahu disagree on how to end the Iran war... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates fall for the third day in a row after inflation data shows price growth hitting a three-year high, Economic growth revised downward in Q1; durable goods orders pop in April; jobless claims hit a 5-week high; and new home sales fall more than expected in April. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

The European Central Bank released a concerning report about the impact of the war in the Middle East, a troubling report says Putin may expand the war into Europe, and consumer confidence holds strong in May despite headwinds This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Positive news out of the Middle East causes rates to fall for just the second time in two weeks. Residential construction is mostly positive in April, the House overwhelmingly passes a Housing Bill, manufacturing falls in Philly, and the FOMC minutes show talks of a possible rate hike. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Mortgage rates continue to rise as bond yields rise across the globe. Robin Brooks wrote on his Substack that bond yields are rising for temporary reasons (Iran war) and for structural problems (rising debt issuance among almost all nations. The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran and the US are showing no signs of moving any closer to a deal to end the war. The UN announces slowing economic growth for the global economy. And pending home sales rise in April, but not as much as expected. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

It's been a rough two days for the bond market, with yields up 16 points in the last two trading days as bond investors are worried that the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's dovish approach to monetary policy could cause inflation to spike. In other news: Homebuilder confidence rose more than expected in May, and homebuilders face an increase in lawsuits, which can raise the cost of home building. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

We saw a slight drop in rates on Thursday as markets reacted to President Trump's meeting with Xi Jinping in China, retail sales rising in April but not as much as inflation, and jobless claims rising for the second straight week but remain close to two-year lows... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

The US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the 17th Federal Reserve Chairman, producer prices skyrocketed in April, bond investors are worried about inflation, and the 30-year treasury auction was not very good... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Uncertainty surrounding the British Prime Minister pushed the 30-year gilt yield to near a 30-year high, while April’s CPI report showed energy prices continuing to surge, sending consumer inflation to nearly a three-year high. Meanwhile, the Treasury’s latest 10-year auction saw weak demand, adding more pressure to bond markets, though a new household debt report suggested consumers are still managing debt responsibly. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates moved higher as uncertainty in the Middle East intensified after President Trump called Iran’s latest counteroffer “totally unacceptable” and warned the ceasefire was on “life support,” raising fears of renewed tensions and higher oil prices.Meanwhile, a proposal to suspend the federal gas tax is gaining traction in Washington, while existing-home sales increased in April, though the gain came in below economists’ expectations. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates pulled back slightly on Thursday as Iran had not agreed to talks about a longer ceasefire, jobless claims rose slightly from last week's 7-year low, and mid and long-term consumer inflation expectations held steady despite a rise in short-term expectations. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

As reports of a possible peace deal between Iran and the US showed promise, oil prices fell, equity prices rose, and mortgage rates fell. In other news, private payrolls saw their best month since January 2025... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Job openings fell slightly more than expected in March, but quits rose, giving us a mixed JOLTS report. The trade deficit rose slightly more than expected and the service sector fell slightly more than expected. While we got a lot of data, none of it really moved rates with the 10-year and 30-year both seeing a small drop. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

On Sunday, President Trump said he would protect certain ships in the Strait of Hormuz to bring some stability to the region. In response, Iran attacked US ships and UAE facilities, causing more instability, which caused oil prices to rise, which in turn pushed rates up. In other news, Jeanine Pirro decided not to appeal a judicial ruling against her subpoenas of the Federal Reserve, and whatever you do, do not bet on prediction markets unless you know what you are doing... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

It was a busy day for economic data! Economic growth was hotter than expected in the first quarter, inflation came in hotter than expected, and jobless claims fell to the lowest level since 1969. However, none of this data moved the rates. Rates fell because oil markets calmed down after a spike on Wednesday. In other news, debt hit 100% of GDP and while that is not an issue now, it will be sooner than most people think... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

The Fed announced they were holding rates for the third straight meeting. However, there were four dissents. Stephen Mirran wanted a rate cut, but the other 3 were because they weren't happy with the statement. Housing starts jumped to a 14-month high, and durable goods orders were better than expected. However, none of that caused rates to jump; that was because of rising oil prices... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Gas prices hit a 4-year high as Iran and the US seem no closer to a peace deal, and Iran is struggling to find somewhere to store its oil as the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues to work. The UAE announced they were leaving OPEC so they can produce more oil, consumer confidence unexpectedly jumped to a 6-month high, and home price growth fell to an almost three-year low. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

On Friday, the Department of Justice announced they were dropping the investigation into the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell, which allowed Senator Thom Tillis to drop his no vote in the banking committee to push Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the floor of the Senate for a full vote. In other news, consumer sentiment falls to the lowest level in 70 years, and it’s a busy week for data as four central banks across the globe will make rate decisions This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Jobless claims rise slightly and don't have a big impact on rates. Joseph C. Sternberg has a great piece in the WSJ about Kevin Warsh and his possible tenure at the Federal Reserve. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Slow news days kept rates unchanged. Inflation in the U.K. rose as expected, mortgage demand jumped as rates fell to a 1-month low, and chaos in the Strait of Hormuz kept peace talks on ice between Iran and the U.S. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates rose on Tuesday as retail sales jumped because of higher gas prices, Kevin Warsh’s hearing went as expected, pending home sales rose more than expected, and peace talks broke down between the US and Iran. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, released prepared remarks before his hearing on Tuesday that argued that Fed independence is “essential” but noted that “Fed independence is largely up to the Fed.” In other news: Iran throws out mixed signals on peace talks, and it’s a slow week for economic data. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates rose again on manufacturing data out of Philadelphia that was similar to the NY data, which showed activity rising along with upward price pressure. In other news, jobless claims fell more than expected as the labor market holds steady and President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates rose on Wednesday after the New York manufacturing report showed activity unexpectedly rising with some upside price pressure. In other news, President Trump threatened to fire Jerome Powell…again and homebuilder confidence fell to a 7-month low. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Markets welcomed a 0.5% producer price increase in March, while it was not good, it was much better than economists had expected. In other news, the success of the U.S. blockade could end the war sooner than some thought and Scott Bessent backs the Fed holding rates steady. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates fell and equities climbed as the markets reacted positively to the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as analysts believe this will force a peace deal sooner rather than later. In other news, existing-home sales fell more than expected in March, and the White House’s economic report argues that the US is 10 million homes underbuilt… This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran that would postpone any new attacks and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as they work out a long-term peace plan. Markets welcomed the news as stock futures jumped and bond yields fell. It was also a good day for rates as the latest report on consumer inflation expectations showed no change on mid and long-term inflation projections and durable goods orders fell for the fourth time in the last five months. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates fell to start the week thanks to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explaining why the Fed is not worried about a short-term spike in oil prices. However, he did explain that if oil prices stay high for a longer period, it could impact consumer sentiment, which could force the Fed to act. In other news, Japan ramps up its investments in the US housing market and the markets prepare for an early jobs week and possible weak data. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

After a horrific Friday for rates, bond yields fell on the news that the US and Iran could be nearing a deal. Iran shrugged off the claims but markets still took it as good news as the 10-year fell five basis points and equity markets jumped. In other news, construction spending fell to start 2026. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates were basically unchanged for the day despite some concern out of Europe. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both warned of inflation risks because of the Iran conflict which lead investors to think rate hikes could actually be in the future. In other news: New home sales plummeted to start 2026 which took many by surprise and Nick Timiraos writes about how Trump’s pressure on Powell could actually backfire and keep him on the board. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

The Federal Reserve Announced they were hoding rates, as expected, but they were much more dovish about the confict in the Middle East than many observers were expecting. However, markets still weren;t happy, as bond yields jumped after Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference. However, the jump could have been caused by the dismal PPI report that showed producer price increases jumping much higher than economists expected. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

SUMMARY: Rates fell for the second straight day as we head into a Fed meeting, Nick Timiraos writes that markets should keep an eye on the Fed dot plot from this next meeting, pending home sales unexpectedly rise in February, and a fake mortgage rate quote made its way around Twitter today… This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates fell for the first time in a week on optimism about oil markets, manufacturing activity slows in New York, homebuilder confidence rises, and it's a busy week for central banks across the world... This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Oil markets calm down after President Trump announces protections for ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, which calms down equity & bond markets. Bond markets also look to the cost of a prolonged conflict and what that could mean for the US fiscally. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Wilmington’s apartment growth since 2020 is second in the nation, only behind Huntsville, Alabama. However, even with that growth, median rents are still up 24% since pre-pandemic levels. Jobless claims held steady and Freddie Mac had mortgage rates also falling under 6.0%, slightly below Mortgage News Daily’s 30-year index. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

It was a boring day for bond markets after the two major economic reports came in as expected. Consumer confidence rose to a 4-month high, but after falling to a 14-year low they really only had one direction to move. Home price growth continued to slow to close out 2025. And all eyes are on Washington as the President will give his first State of the Union in his second term. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com

Rates fall to a 3-year low as global markets react to the Supreme Court decision striking down IEEPA powers that the Trump administration was using to implement most of the tariffs. President Trump announced on Friday that he would put a 10% tariff on all foreign imports, which he later increased to 15% over the weekend. This new tariff is confusing global markets, which is causing rates to fall. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wilmingtonmortgage.substack.com