Yet Another Value Podcast

Alex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending "dark arts" signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn't paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad's frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums.This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense. Join Andrew, Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompts, and Ben Collins of AlphaSense for a webinar breaking down the modern AI stack for investors: where horizontal platforms, agentic workflows, and finance-specific tools each actually fit in a real research process. Recording June 16, live June 25. Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-SolutionsDisclosure: long DCH and NOMDChapters:0:00 Two cheap special situations and the "dark arts" setup1:10 Sponsor: AlphaSense and the AI-stack-for-investors webinar2:29 Alex Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management3:04 Dauch ($DCH): the GKN, Melrose and Dowlais backstory7:05 Why Atlantic made $DCH a core position at ~$69:03 The governance knock: a company named after a sub-1% CEO13:42 Dark arts: the PSU grant that only pays above $1215:11 Underwriting the $300M merger synergies18:13 Leverage, capital allocation and the path to buybacks24:42 The auto cycle and why 5x free cash flow caps the downside29:12 Nomad Foods ($NOMD): the frozen-food bull case33:14 Nomad by the numbers: 5.5x earnings, 7% yield35:39 The bear case: private label, Aldi and a new CEO39:21 Would Martin Franklin ever sell?41:22 Dividend or buyback at these levels?43:00 Is Franklin distracted by APi Group?45:27 The kitchen-sink reset and a fall investor day47:37 "Addback city": cleaning up the earnings number50:02 The European discount: real or imagined?Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Abivax posted maybe the best ulcerative colitis data anyone's seen, then crashed 60% on a cancer signal Adam May argues is statistical noise. We dig into whether $ABVX is now a mispriced takeout: the maintenance efficacy that beat Rinvoq, how the scary "seven cancer cases" collapse to two, the blackbox question, the Crohn's skew, and the part two safety data due within weeks. Then a quick look at Nectar (NKTR), its alopecia areata data, and the Eli Lilly lawsuit.This episode is sponsored by AlphaSense, and specifically Andrew's upcoming AI webinar with them: breaking down the modern AI stack for investors with Dave Wang (Wall Street Prompts) and Ben Collins (AlphaSense). Goes live June 25. Register here. Chapters:00:00 Intro and disclosure (long ABVX and NKTR)01:03 Sponsor: AlphaSense AI webinar for investors02:33 The biotech "GOAT" returns03:33 Abivax setup: induction vs maintenance, the stakes06:38 The bar: clinical remission and Rinvoq10:14 Blowout maintenance data, and endoscopic remission that doubles Rinvoq14:23 The data drops, then a 60% crash16:31 The cancer scare, taken apart case by case24:45 Why it's statistical noise: mechanism, clustering, base rates28:50 Adverse-event capture and the phase 2 safety database33:57 Bear case: hasn't the market had time to digest this?38:00 Blackbox or no blackbox, and does it matter at $10040:32 The Crohn's readout and the skew45:36 M&A: timing, the new CCO, what Adam wants them to do47:38 Part two safety data due within weeks54:46 The cash question: secondary vs sale57:49 Nectar: strong data, then an unexplained selloff59:54 The Eli Lilly lawsuit and the jury-trial angle01:03:26 Ox40 read-through and the Q32 Bio overhang01:06:07 Most mispriced pick, targets, and the CEO's Cincor parallel01:12:10 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/Disclosure: Long ABVX and NKTR

Amadeus $AMS is down roughly 25% because the market lumped it in with the SaaS names AI is supposed to gut. Team Amadeus, Pershing Square Challenge finalists, argue it's the opposite: a deterministic, mission-critical monopoly that AI makes more valuable, not less. We dig into the 50-year-old systems that planes literally can't take off without, why the GDS is the wrong job for an LLM, the Sabre and Constellation Software angle, and what the stock is actually worth.Full pitch deck (~75 pages): https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/5bwef8mz2kplx2sub598w/PSC_AMS_LONG_vSent.pdf?rlkey=x5g0v7t1qk8hpg00ewix95hn3&st=rq9nzl4h&dl=0This episode is brought to you by Trata. Trata is two investors who get on an anonymized call and talk through the real issues in a stock, bull-to-bull, bear-to-bear, or just getting up to speed. If you like this podcast, you'll like Trata. Check it out at trata.comChapters:00:00 Why Amadeus landed on my radar01:00 Sponsor: Trata02:39 Meet Team Amadeus (Pershing Square Challenge finalists)05:20 What Amadeus actually does: the toll booth on global travel09:07 The AI fear that broke the stock11:13 Is it actually cheap? Valuation and stock comp15:26 Why Amadeus tops the AI-risk matrix16:32 Air IT Solutions: the SAP of airlines22:59 The Microsoft AI director who bet against AI eating this24:15 Tech-debt pushback and the JFK field trip29:09 Sabre, Constellation Software, and the monopoly complaint33:16 How Amadeus won share during COVID34:21 The air-distribution network effect35:22 Why LLMs are the wrong tool for the GDS39:50 The $1B biometrics acquisition43:03 Google, Gemini, and the uptime math45:47 Fair value and the bull case nobody's pricing49:01 Amadeus as an AI beneficiary51:02 Closing thoughtsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

A market that refuses to go down, AI coming for the investor's job, and MicroStrategy quietly becoming the entire preferred-equity market. Andrew's monthly ramble across five things he can't stop thinking about: stretched memory valuations, a hyper-concentrated tape, mental flexibility, and the cycle nobody believes can break.This episode is sponsored by Fiscal.ai. Modern financial data for global equities, with a self-serve API that plugs fundamentals and prices straight into your LLM and updates within minutes of earnings, not days. Get 15% off at https://fiscal.ai/yavChapters:00:00 Five things I'm rambling on this month01:58 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai03:16 "We'll never have problems again": a market that won't quit04:56 Energy and oil: the worries the market keeps shrugging off06:00 AI, space plays, and stretched memory valuations09:54 Five stocks, half the S&P's gains10:51 Is AI coming for the investor's job?13:08 The counterpoint: 200-IQ machines and more fragile markets16:10 Mental flexibility: why your old letters predicted your AI take20:04 Why "the cycle is dead" always worries me21:42 MicroStrategy is the preferred-equity market now24:45 The CFO signal: leaving a big company for a small oneLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Celsius trades at ~20x earnings while growing ~18% a year, cheaper than Monster (~34x) and even Coke (~25x) despite faster growth. The Pershing Square Challenge third-place team makes the long case for $CELH: the market is sleeping on the Alani Nu acquisition, and their 500-person proprietary survey says the brand loyalty is real. Andrew pushes back hard on the Costco/Kirkland private-label threat, the heavy reliance on Pepsi distribution, and whether energy drinks are just the next "protein" fad waiting to be disrupted.CELH pitch deck: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/rsyotzf7g2efkj9rfmg23/AHHk4_h_6CU12R-dTrAOtH4?rlkey=664lkpggv77rwkzh3rh78826q&e=2&st=0s4tiwjy&dl=0This episode is sponsored by Trata. Trata is buy-siders interviewing each other; it is the fastest way I know to ramp up on a name. See a sample here: https://www.trata.com/celhChapters:0:00 Why energy drinks (and Celsius) are a passion1:13 Sponsor: Trata2:46 Meet team Celsius, third place at the Pershing Square Challenge4:23 Why they picked Celsius for the pitch7:19 The setup: ~20x earnings, ~18% growth, an underpriced Alani8:47 Why the market is discounting Celsius10:09 The Costco/Kirkland private-label crash, and the rebuttal12:26 Andrew's pushback: don't loyal buyers just order in bulk?16:14 The proprietary 500-person survey18:48 Distribution vs. brand: is the survey actually a bear case?22:31 The Pepsi relationship: Rockstar, the 11% stake, and the risk26:08 The Alani acquisition: sugar high or smart capital allocation?31:24 Are energy drinks the next protein? The fad debate38:40 Valuation: the Coke and Monster arbitrage43:38 Wrap-upLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Team Baker Hughes, the second-place finishers in the 2026 Pershing Square Challenge, discuss their Baker Hughes thesis and why they believe the market hasn't fully appreciated the company's evolution from a cyclical oil field services business. They discuss how the long runway for the IET business, and they back their thesis up with 30+ expert calls, a trip to the Western Turbine Users conference, and a sum-of-the-parts case that leans on growth, not multiple expansion.See the team's full pitch deck hereThis episode is sponsored by Trata. Check them out at https://www.trata.comChapters0:00 Intro and sponsor2:21 Meet Team Baker Hughes4:39 Why they backed into Baker Hughes6:56 Watching the stock run from $45 to $65 mid-pitch7:21 The differentiated work: 30+ expert calls and the turbine conference8:27 The two businesses: oil field services vs. industrial energy technology10:10 What the market is missing on the IET transformation12:56 Is this just another cycle? The chart hit $65 three times13:59 Why this gas turbine cycle is structurally different17:01 AI as a distraction: onshoring and electrification17:51 The installed base flywheel and recurring service revenue21:13 The three turbine segments and the supply chain squeeze23:34 Honoring 70-year customers vs. mercenary pricing27:44 Valuation: a sum-of-the-parts story, not a multiple story29:36 The Chart acquisition: can they really double their money?34:56 The GE merger history and the GE Aero Alliance today38:27 Management, alignment, and insider ownership42:41 The C3 AI anecdote and wrap-upLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

The winners of the Pershing Square Challenge 2026 discuss their Doordash pitch, including why the growth story still has room to run (and the 90 primary research calls they made to back up that call). We get into durable US restaurant growth, why new verticals and international could inflect to profitability earlier than the street models, the underappreciated opex leverage, their proprietary Wolt case study, the Tony Xu bet, and why they think the Citrini AI-agent thesis on DoorDash is overblown.This episode is sponsored by Trata. Check out their DASH transcript at https://www.trata.com/dashTeam DASH presentation: ZK's LinkedInAaron's LinkedInElliot's LinkedInChapters00:00 The Pershing Square Challenge and team DoorDash01:14 Sponsor: Trata02:50 Meet the team: ZK, Elliot, and Aaron05:40 Why they picked DoorDash out of the screen10:10 The bull case in three parts11:20 US restaurant growth: still the middle innings?13:20 Demographics as a tailwind17:50 Order frequency and the China comp21:00 Valuation: $70B cap, adjusted EBITDA, and the path to $32025:35 The real downside: competition, Amazon, bundled memberships29:50 The ~90 primary research calls33:35 New verticals and the grocery economics38:10 A DoorDash bet or a Tony Xu bet?41:40 Management comp and alignment43:45 International: the Wolt case study and Deliveroo47:00 The tech-stack reinvestment cycle51:00 Sylvie makes her podcast debut51:20 Citrini and the AI-agent threat56:20 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

James Elbaor of Marlton makes the case that $PSUS will trade at a premium to NAV instead of the typical closed-end fund discount and that $PS will ultimately trade at a premium multiple to peers like Blackstone, KKR, Apollo and Carlyle given its lean team and advantaged fee structure. We push on every part of that, including whether Ackman's portfolio is just an expensive S&P hug, why London still doesn't fully credit him, and whether Spark gives Pershing a real path into Universal Music Group.Sponsor: Fiscal.ai. Real-time fundamental data for global equities, plus one of the leading data connectors for Claude and ChatGPT. Get 15% off at fiscal.ai/yavChapters:0:00 Intro and the divergent thesis1:05 Sponsor: Fiscal.ai2:20 Marlton's lens on closed-end funds and UK trusts5:00 $PSUS: scale, structure, why it's already the largest US equity CEF7:30 The case for a premium to NAV instead of a 15 to 20% discount12:30 $PSUS vs $PSH London: who can own what, and why it matters15:20 The 40-Act book and Ackman's macro hedging history17:50 Track record with and without the COVID hedge22:00 Why London still does not fully credit Bill23:50 "But isn't it just Google, Amazon, Meta?" — the index-hug pushback26:00 Can Pershing get private assets (Spark, HHH-style deals) into $PSUS29:00 $PSCM valuation: 30x FRE and the bridge from $300M to $550 to $590M36:00 Why $PSCM should deserve a premium multiple to KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Blue Owl42:30 Preferred performance fees and why the income statement is cleaner45:30 Alignment: insiders own 85%+48:00 Permanent capital vs six-year "permanent" capital at the alts49:40 50 employees at $PSCM vs 2,200 at Carlyle52:00 Keyman risk on Bill and Ryan Israel's role58:30 What's next: $UMG, Vincent Bolloré, and Spark as the vehicle1:02:00 WrapLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Driven Brands ($DRVN) puked on a February accounting restatement. Kyle Mowery (GrizzlyRock Capital) walks through why Take 5 remains a crown jewel and could be worth the entire EV of the company (making the franchise and autoglass businesses a free option). We also dig into how the April and May 8-Ks took the scary left-tail risks off the table, why Roark Capital (65% owner) might run a sale process later this year, and the bear case (corporate cost bloat, weakness in the non-Take-5 brands).disclaimer: Andrew is long DRVNKyle's late 2024 DRVN podcast: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/grizzlyrock-capitals-kyle-mowery?utm_source=publication-search[00:00:00] Intro and disclosures[00:03:23] What is Driven Brands today[00:05:14] Why the car wash divestiture sold so cheap[00:09:19] Why Take 5 is the crown jewel[00:11:15] EV risk and the US ICE car park[00:13:21] Franchisee demand and unit growth[00:15:31] Take 5 vs. Valvoline[00:18:13] The addbacks problem[00:20:57] Inside the accounting restatement[00:23:22] The cash adjustment[00:28:50] The ATI revenue recognition issue[00:30:12] Reading the April and May 8-Ks[00:32:40] Debating adjusted EBITDA[00:34:55] Corporate cost bloat[00:37:54] Is this fraud? No[00:39:49] Weakness in the non-Take-5 brands[00:43:45] Sum-of-the-parts: Take 5 covers the debt[00:46:30] Why public markets misprice the franchise brands[00:48:04] Durability of franchise cash flows[00:50:14] Timing the resolution[00:53:26] Roark Capital's strategic options[00:57:40] Labor Day or Halloween?[01:00:00] Capital cycle stories Kyle's watching[01:03:02] Chinese supply pressure on industrialsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Rich Howe of Stock Spin-Off Investing makes the bull case for Liberty Global ($LBTYK): cheap on a sum-of-the-parts, an upcoming Ziggo spin to crystallize value, and a hidden ventures portfolio. Andrew pushes back hard on Malone, Fries, and Liberty's long history of value that never quite shows up.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Liberty Global thesis01:44 Sponsor: AlphaSense earnings season04:49 Rich's bull case for $LBTYK07:46 Andrew on management credibility09:05 Why a spin can unlock value11:57 Buybacks: are they actually working?15:19 Debt structure and the deleveraging path17:14 Operational deterioration risk19:52 Ziggo's subscriber losses24:09 Malone and Fries: the track record27:46 The Liberty Global board problem31:22 The growth investment portfolio32:59 Why Rich haircuts the portfolio36:43 Formula E and venture exposure38:35 The empire-building risk40:55 Virgin Media O2 restructuring42:11 Other spin-off setups worth a look43:40 Ziff Davis sum-of-the-parts46:52 Andrew on distressed SaaS ideas48:22 Lionsgate and media consolidation51:53 Lionsgate as an acquisition targetLinks:Yet Another Value Blog: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comStock Spin-Off Investing (Rich Howe): https://www.stockspinoffinvesting.comLegal disclaimer: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant: https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Stevanato (STVN) makes the glass vials and pre-filled syringes that GLP-1 drugs ship in. The stock has sold off on fears that oral GLP-1s replace injectables, but Aurelian Research's Leo Trudel argues that's a misread: biologics demand keeps growing, the mix is shifting toward higher-margin "high-value solutions," and switching costs in regulated drug delivery are real. We dig into the bull case, the oral-vs-injectable debate, capacity and oversupply risk, capital allocation, regulatory lock-in, and what would change Leo's view.[00:00:00] Podcast intro and guest welcome[00:03:08] Stevanato's business model: vials, syringes, high-value solutions[00:03:51] COVID boom and the destocking cycle[00:06:39] Why the stock sold off and what it implies[00:07:34] Market expectations vs. reality[00:11:55] Margin expansion from mix shift[00:14:40] Oral vs. injectable GLP-1s: the real debate[00:17:30] Why oral and injectable aren't interchangeable[00:19:44] Capacity additions and oversupply risk[00:21:00] Biologics demand beyond GLP-1[00:23:04] Management trust and capital allocation[00:26:52] Regulatory lock-in: the real moat[00:29:42] What could break the bull case[00:30:53] Future capex and where it goes[00:32:41] Industry structure and M&A outlook[00:34:37] AI tools in investment research[00:38:09] Closing thoughts and Leo's stanceLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p...Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Deiya Pernas of Pernas Research about Sprout Social (SPT) and the broader SaaS selloff. They examine the company’s platform, competitive positioning, and whether the market is mispricing its long-term potential. The discussion covers API complexity, integrations, AI risks, and shifting perceptions across SaaS. They also address valuation, stock-based compensation concerns, and possible catalysts including governance changes or acquisition interest. The conversation closes with a wider look at the so-called SaaS apocalypse and where opportunities may exist.____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and guest overview[00:03:59] Sprout Social business model explained[00:05:38] Market mispricing and SaaS selloff[00:09:53] Fundamentals versus market perception debate[00:12:05] SaaS valuation reset discussion[00:13:45] Platform capabilities and customer usage[00:15:16] API complexity and competitive advantage[00:18:58] Compliance risks and AI concerns[00:21:48] Platform competition from social networks[00:23:50] AI disruption and company adaptation[00:27:07] Systems of record skepticism discussed[00:30:00] Integrations and switching costs impact[00:31:01] Stock-based compensation concerns raised[00:32:01] Dilution risks and sustainability issues[00:33:48] Governance changes as potential catalyst[00:35:49] Management turnover and uncertainty[00:36:46] Acquisition potential discussed[00:38:59] Broader SaaS opportunities and risks[00:42:11] SaaS durability versus AI disruption[00:45:36] Lack of insider buying observations[00:46:55] Criticism of board incentivesLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Tolu Bukola from Aganju Capital about DraftKings and the growing threat from prediction markets. Tolu explains DraftKings’ business model, highlighting both sports betting and the expanding iGaming segment. The discussion focuses heavily on regulatory risks, including how prediction markets operate and why they may face legal challenges. They examine potential outcomes if regulation changes, how market share could shift, and what that means for DraftKings’ long-term economics. The episode also covers valuation perspectives and the role of government intervention in shaping the industry’s future.You can see Tolu's DKNG write up here___________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and guest overview[00:00:33] DraftKings and prediction markets focus[00:03:21] DraftKings business and history explained[00:05:26] Prediction markets model and mechanics[00:07:33] Market reaction and investor behavior[00:09:14] iGaming growth and profitability discussion[00:11:09] iGaming competition and market structure[00:14:55] DraftKings execution and product strengths[00:16:02] Prediction markets as key risk[00:17:34] Product appeal and investor bias[00:18:57] Betfair comparison and market share[00:20:20] Cultural shifts and trading behavior[00:22:12] Early impact on sportsbook data[00:23:12] Market share uncertainty discussion[00:24:38] Government incentives and regulation[00:26:25] Why Betfair remained small[00:29:31] Pricing differences and fee structure[00:31:32] Complexity of sportsbook operations[00:32:38] Regulatory advantages of prediction markets[00:34:43] Insider trading and integrity concerns[00:37:04] Legal paths and regulatory outcomes[00:39:17] CFTC role and enforcement issues[00:41:37] Timing risks and market share shift[00:42:56] Long-term investment thesis[00:44:23] Valuation framework and upside case[00:48:40] DraftKings competing in prediction markets[00:49:55] Parlay economics and profitability[00:51:24] Regulatory risks beyond prediction markets[00:53:30] Government incentives and taxation[00:54:24] Supreme Court outlook and legal stance[00:55:56] Native American tribes involvementLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker shares his April monthly ramblings, covering a range of investing topics top of mind. He examines the recent selloff in SaaS companies and why they may not be as attractive as they appear. Andrew explores the idea of hedging against AI disruption using large-cap tech options, while also questioning how AI and pattern recognition could reshape investing. He reflects on the balance between experience and laziness in decision-making and closes with a personal discussion on the mental challenges of missing major investment opportunities.Check out fiscal.ai here: fiscal.ai/?via=yav______________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and monthly ramblings[00:01:02] Call for ratings and subscriptions[00:01:37] Sponsor discussion and product usage[00:02:40] Overview of April discussion topics[00:04:35] SaaS selloff and valuation concerns[00:07:10] AI impact on SaaS demand[00:08:03] Software terminal value concerns[00:08:54] SaaS as difficult investment category[00:10:16] Importance of differentiated investment edge[00:12:09] AI risks to investing careers[00:13:32] Idea of hedging AI exposure[00:14:29] Meta stock option implications[00:15:54] Rationale for big tech hedges[00:17:18] Thoughts on leap options strategy[00:18:33] Pattern recognition in investing[00:20:09] When pattern recognition becomes harmful[00:21:35] Balancing experience versus laziness[00:22:21] AI and pattern recognition limitations[00:23:33] Market adaptation to investor behavior[00:25:08] Potential AI investing weaknesses[00:26:48] Using AI tools in research[00:28:36] Emotional challenges in investing[00:29:18] Missed Avis investment opportunity[00:30:24] Frustration from missed gains[00:31:08] Balancing emotions and discipline[00:32:28] Closing remarks and sign-offLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Jingshu Zhang from Guinea Value about Fiserv (FISV) and the broader payments sector. They examine the recent drawdown across payment companies, addressing concerns around AI disruption, regulation, and macro pressures. Jingshu outlines Fiserv’s business structure across financial institutions and merchant solutions, while detailing the impact of leadership changes and operational missteps under prior management. The discussion highlights the ongoing strategic reset, new executive hires from JPMorgan, and extensive on-the-ground research into Clover’s positioning. They also debate capital allocation, insider alignment, activist involvement, and valuation, exploring whether Fiserv represents a turnaround opportunity or a declining legacy asset.See Shu's substack here: https://jingshu.substack.com/See Trata's FISV transcript here: https://www.trata.com/fisv___________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast intro and guest background[00:03:56] Payments sector under broad pressure[00:05:32] Market fears impacting payment companies[00:06:51] AI risks debated in payments[00:11:38] Structural advantages protect payment networks[00:12:49] Capital allocation concerns across peers[00:17:19] Fiserv business segments overview[00:18:59] Leadership change and prior mismanagement[00:24:23] Strategic reset and growth normalization[00:27:49] Variant perception and investment thesis[00:28:50] New executive team and talent inflow[00:34:55] Clover positioning versus competitors[00:36:20] Field research from restaurant interviews[00:42:01] Valuation framework and earnings outlook[00:46:14] Insider alignment and incentives discussion[00:53:34] Organizational culture and employee sentiment[00:58:30] Activist involvement and strategic optionsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Sean Emory of Avory & Co analyzes Clear Security, a biometric identity platform operating in airports nationwide. They examine the company’s subscription model, competitive positioning against TSA and airlines, and the impact of recent TSA disruptions on demand. The discussion covers Clear’s pricing power, partnerships with credit card providers like Amex, and the durability of its airport footprint. Sean also outlines a developing enterprise identity segment and its potential role in future growth. The conversation addresses valuation, risks, and whether Clear’s moat can sustain long-term returns. ___________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew introduces Clear Security debate[00:03:54] Clear explained: biometric airport platform[00:07:11] Growth limits and line congestion[00:10:00] TSA PreCheck economics and strategy[00:14:04] Competition from TSA and airlines[00:18:15] Airport partnerships and revenue sharing[00:23:12] Market missing enterprise identity opportunity[00:28:48] Debate on enterprise business significance[00:34:11] TSA disruption impact on stock[00:39:36] Valuation and growth assumptions[00:43:24] Pricing power and customer behavior[00:49:21] Amex partnership risks and dynamics[00:56:12] Capital allocation and cash usage[01:00:56] Long-term identity and AI implicationsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Andy Summers, CIO of Summers Value, to discuss Theravance (TBPH; disclosure: long). Both share their perspectives as shareholders while examining the company’s setup following a failed Phase 3 trial. They break down Theravance’s remaining asset, the COPD drug Yupelri, and its long-term royalty potential. The discussion covers the company’s balance sheet strength, cost reductions, and ongoing strategic review process. Andy outlines valuation assumptions, including U.S. royalties, China opportunity, and tax attributes, while also assessing potential buyers and deal dynamics. They also explore downside scenarios if a sale does not occur and why the situation presents an asymmetric risk-reward profile.___________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and sponsor mention[00:02:41] Overview of Theravance business model[00:05:02] Phase three failure stock decline[00:06:56] Activist involvement and ownership concentration[00:09:01] Strategic review process and acceleration[00:09:49] Breakdown of balance sheet and cash[00:12:49] Discussion on downside protection and sizing[00:14:11] Yupelri drug positioning and growth[00:15:59] Patent protection timeline through 2039[00:17:13] Valuation of royalty stream[00:18:08] Sum-of-parts valuation discussion[00:18:49] China opportunity and royalty upside[00:24:22] Strategic buyers and acquisition dynamics[00:28:22] Concerns about limited bidding competition[00:30:57] Potential alternative buyers and synergies[00:35:08] What market may be missing[00:35:57] Ireland tax asset potential value[00:38:03] Scenario if company not sold[00:41:30] Potential management change outcomes[00:43:22] Asymmetric risk reward summary[00:44:24] Timing expectations for potential dealLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker is joined by Roderick van Zuylen of Nightwatch to analyze Marex (MRX), a futures commission merchant operating in a consolidated financial infrastructure space. Roderick explains how Marex facilitates derivatives trading for clients like airlines and hedge funds, while benefiting from rising trading volumes and industry consolidation. The discussion covers Marex’s strong returns on equity, acquisition-driven growth strategy, and competitive positioning versus peers like StoneX. They also address risks, including credit exposure, interest rate sensitivity, and a recent short report. The episode highlights why Marex may continue compounding earnings through both organic and inorganic growth.Roderick's twitter: roojoo3Night Watch's website: NightWatchIM.com______________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast introduction and guest overview[00:03:56] What Marex actually does[00:05:05] Industry consolidation and competitors[00:07:43] Credit risk and downside scenarios[00:10:06] FCM role explained simply[00:11:49] Why ROEs are high[00:13:57] Acquisition-driven growth strategy[00:15:12] Market mispricing and valuation[00:17:24] Private equity overhang concerns[00:19:21] M&A execution and integration[00:22:28] Switching costs and customer stickiness[00:24:24] Why acquisitions are cheap[00:26:31] Industry structure and limited buyers[00:28:19] Volatility and revenue dynamics[00:29:46] Goldilocks volatility discussion[00:32:59] Buybacks and capital allocation[00:34:32] Short report overview[00:35:11] Key allegations addressed[00:38:29] Cash flow concerns explained[00:41:10] Company response to short report[00:42:28] Real-world business validation[00:43:41] Valuation and upside potential[00:45:43] Key risks and interest ratesLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker returns with his monthly solo ramblings covering several themes shaping current markets. He starts by discussing recent volatility and why markets feel inconsistent despite relatively modest index declines. Andrew then explores how long-term tailwinds in software and growth investing may have influenced investor track records over the past decade. He also revisits his three-year rule for evaluating stagnant investments, examining its limitations in cyclical sectors. The episode closes with a discussion on position sizing, emphasizing the need to re-underwrite positions after large price moves and avoid inertia when fundamentals change.________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and volatile market overview[00:00:47] Software investing and track record concerns[00:01:40] Three-year rule and exceptions[00:01:56] Position sizing after major moves[00:05:08] Markets feel inconsistent and strange[00:08:04] SaaS and growth investing tailwinds[00:09:43] Track records shaped by favorable cycles[00:13:49] Revisiting and questioning three-year rule[00:15:58] Cyclical tailwinds impacting outcomes[00:17:00] Value creation versus timing importance[00:19:49] Position sizing mistakes and inertia[00:22:52] Re-underwriting after losses[00:24:15] Risk management and cost limitsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with Adam May, a physician, dermatologist, and biotech investor, about how he built an edge in small- and mid-cap biotech. Adam walks through his path from medical school investing to launching a small biotech fund during the 2021 peak, then explains how he sources ideas, studies trial data, and looks for situations where the market is missing something important. The conversation focuses on NKTR and ABVX, including trial design, maintenance data, market skepticism, buyout setups, and how Adam thinks about risk, beta, and asymmetric upside in biotech.__________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew introduces Adam[00:02:44] Adam’s biotech investing background[00:07:16] Alpha versus biotech beta[00:09:51] Finding edge in biotech[00:17:01] How Adam sources ideas[00:20:49] Handling concentrated biotech positions[00:22:59] Biotech drawdown created opportunities[00:24:49] NKTR thesis and setup[00:27:53] Lilly data analysis mistake[00:29:34] Why drugs miss patients[00:30:34] Eczema need remains large[00:33:55] Trial nuance drove conviction[00:36:11] Reverse split scared investors[00:37:14] NKTR rerating after data[00:41:21] Why maintenance data mattered[00:43:32] Buyout versus commercialization path[00:45:17] Alopecia setup in NKTR[00:52:25] ABVX background and skepticism[00:55:00] Maintenance data built conviction[00:58:54] The killer ABVX slide[01:01:50] Why ABVX looks acquirable[01:08:11] ABVX maintenance data ahead[01:11:27] Andrew closes the episodeLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Chris Paryse breaks down Ferrellgas (FGPR), a propane distributor emerging from a complex post-bankruptcy structure. The conversation focuses on the recently completed Class B to Class A unit conversion, which significantly increases free float and simplifies the capital structure. Chris explains how the company generated cash flow to eliminate legacy obligations and outlines a potential path toward reinstating dividends. They also discuss leverage, preferred securities, and the opportunity for valuation re-rating through relisting and improved liquidity. The episode highlights both the financial engineering aspects and the operational realities of a stable but low-growth propane business. Chris's twitter: https://x.com/CParyse86296___________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Ferrellgas situation overview[00:03:47] Business model explained simply[00:06:31] Class B conversion mechanics[00:08:38] Dilution and free float impact[00:10:49] Capital returns outlook discussed[00:11:26] Free cash flow breakdown[00:15:08] Preferred structure and leverage[00:17:41] Valuation and leverage debate[00:18:59] Relisting catalyst potential[00:20:07] Ownership and alignment concerns[00:23:24] M&A and consolidation strategy[00:30:02] Business segment deep dive[00:35:45] Commodity risk explained[00:37:54] Key catalysts summary[00:42:10] Private equity possibility discussed[00:45:03] Closing thoughts and contactLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest about the shifting media landscape and recent industry restructurings. Simeon brings experience from inside major media companies, offering a perspective on how traditional networks, streaming platforms, and sports rights are shaping valuations across the sector. The conversation examines Comcast’s Versant spin-off, the positioning of assets like Bravo and other entertainment channels, and how investors should think about cable decline versus streaming economics. Andrew and Simeon also discuss incentives behind corporate restructurings, the quality of assets being separated, and what could drive value creation or destruction. Throughout the discussion they analyze media strategy, market narratives, and how investors can interpret these evolving industry dynamics.See a replay of my AlphaSense media webinar here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/paramounts-acquisition-of-wbd-and-the-reshaping-of-the-streaming-market/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_03-10-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-Netflix-WarnerBros__________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:02:14] Simeon McMillan joins discussion[00:03:25] Guest media industry background[00:15:40] Hidden value in the golf assets[00:25:25] Future of CNBC[00:37:50] What happens in 2028[00:44:00] The future of sports rightsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Host Andrew Walker speaks with Alex Morris of The Science of Hitting about the rapidly shifting media landscape. They examine the failed Netflix bid for Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount’s winning acquisition, along with the strategic implications for streaming competition. The conversation analyzes Netflix’s long-term positioning, the importance of intellectual property in a streaming ecosystem, and how artificial intelligence could influence media consumption. They also assess the financial pressures facing traditional media companies, challenges around integrating large media platforms, and the evolving economics of sports rights. Finally, they explore Disney’s strategic transition and the broader outlook for streaming platforms and legacy television networks.You can check out the upcoming AlphaSense webinar here: [00:00] Introduction and webinar announcement[00:04:06] Alex Morris investing background[00:06:55] Netflix Warner Brothers bid debate[00:11:19] Netflix strategy and screen time[00:13:18] AI impact on media IP[00:18:54] Netflix content release strategy discussion[00:26:18] Regulatory pushback on Netflix deal[00:28:17] Netflix strategy after losing bid[00:31:13] Paramount acquisition outlook analysis[00:33:09] Linear television financial dependence[00:37:34] Risks integrating Paramount and Warner[00:41:12] Distribution complexity across platforms[00:46:21] Comcast Versant spinoff strategy critique[00:53:20] Disney position in streaming landscape[00:57:28] Sports rights competitive dynamicsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Host Andrew Walker speaks with Will Cleary of Carriage House Fund about FTAI Aviation and its rapidly expanding jet engine aftermarket platform. Will explains how FTAI transformed from a traditional aircraft leasing company into a vertically integrated provider of engine maintenance, repair, and module swaps for commercial airlines. The discussion examines the economics of engine maintenance, why FTAI’s model reduces costs and turnaround times for airlines, and how its growing ecosystem of engines and modules creates competitive advantages. They also address the Muddy Waters short report, valuation considerations, and FTAI’s new power initiative converting retired jet engines into turbines for data centers. ___________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew introduces guest Will Cleary[00:03:35] Overview of FTAI business model[00:04:05] Vertical integration into engine maintenance[00:05:58] Aviation engine supply shortage context[00:07:05] Why module swap model works[00:09:32] Cost savings from engine module swaps[00:13:58] Network effects in module ecosystem[00:17:15] Adoption by larger airline operators[00:18:41] Strategic capital initiative explained[00:22:35] Risks of off-balance sheet financing[00:25:51] Muddy Waters short report discussion[00:30:23] Evaluating short seller claims[00:32:06] Growth outlook and valuation debate[00:37:09] Framework for valuing FTAI[00:41:21] Data center power turbine initiative[00:43:20] Economics of repurposed jet engines[00:47:05] Potential index inclusion and visibility[00:48:17] Management ownership and alignmentLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Roy Swisa talks about Daily Journal (DJCO) and the evolving thesis behind its valuation. Roy shares how independent research into Journal Technologies’ court case management systems led to consulting work with the company. They examine the sum-of-the-parts framework, the sizable equity portfolio, and incentives post-Charlie Munger. The discussion also explores vertical software durability, regulatory moats, primary research methods, expert networks, and AI’s impact on niche SaaS businesses. Roy outlines how compliance, proprietary data, and procurement dynamics shape competitive positioning in local government markets. Roy's Substack: https://substack.com/@valuetheelephant?Roy's Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rswisa/_________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction to Roy Swisa[00:03:02] Roy’s Daily Journal consulting role[00:03:51] Overview of Daily Journal structure[00:06:13] Vertical software durability thesis[00:12:41] Sum-of-the-parts valuation debate[00:14:02] Equity portfolio and capital allocation[00:25:58] Incentives and balance sheet concerns[00:35:14] Primary research methodology explained[00:42:26] Expert networks versus direct sourcing[00:45:44] SaaS disruption and AI risks[00:48:37] Compliance and proprietary data moats[00:55:57] Where to follow RoyLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Dan Rasmussen and Greg Obenshain of Verdad Capital discuss their white paper on quantitative investing in biotech. Topics include why biotech’s complexity makes it attractive for systematic investors, how specialist fund ownership serves as a quality signal, and why insider buying and spending-based valuation metrics can outperform traditional financial analysis. The conversation also examines momentum within therapeutic categories, risk management on the short side, and how diversification and rebalancing help address biotech’s event-driven volatility.Verdad paper on investing in biotech: https://t.co/JZ1uDURDG2[00:00:00] Introduction to biotech quant paper[00:02:53] Why biotech attracts value investors[00:05:07] Specialist ownership as quality signal[00:08:24] Defining biotech sector specialists[00:11:29] Acquisition patterns and return drivers[00:19:37] Managing short risk in biotech[00:23:06] Short interest as negative signal[00:27:38] Insider buying predictive power[00:32:44] Spending-based valuation framework[00:40:21] Classifying biotech by clinical trials[00:45:34] Momentum within therapeutic categories[00:48:23] Events versus underlying return drivers[00:51:34] Verdad’s contrarian investing philosophyLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Phil Namara of Antipodes discusses Volaris (VLRS), a Mexican low-cost airline with significant domestic exposure and cross-border routes into the U.S. Phil outlines the structural growth opportunity in Mexico’s aviation market, where air travel continues taking share from long-distance buses. The discussion examines industry consolidation, competitive dynamics, grounded aircraft from Pratt & Whitney engine issues, and the proposed merger between Volaris and Viva. They analyze regulatory considerations, potential synergies, and valuation scenarios, framing the investment debate around both standalone fundamentals and merger upside.__________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction to Volaris and thesis[00:03:37] Volaris business overview[00:08:42] Airline industry economics explained[00:12:58] U.S. basic economy impact[00:19:08] European vs U.S. competition[00:22:44] Mexico aviation growth story[00:25:54] Volaris and Viva merger[00:31:07] Competitive barriers in Mexico[00:37:21] Regulatory approval considerations[00:42:41] Pratt & Whitney engine grounding[00:48:59] Merger valuation upside[00:50:05] Downside if deal failsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker shares his February monthly random ramblings, recorded on February 12, 2026. He examines the growing AI-driven panic spreading across SaaS, insurance, trucking, office, and other sectors, questioning how exponential technological improvement could reshape business models built on intangible assets. Andrew compares the current selloff to prior panics in banks and biotech, highlighting the challenges of assessing risk when assets lack tangible backing. He also explores the balance between hard assets and software businesses before closing with reflections on investor psychology, updating priors, and balancing arrogance with humility._____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] February monthly random ramblings[00:03:48] AI panic spreading across markets[00:04:18] Office and trucking selloffs[00:06:13] SaaS sector widespread declines[00:09:15] Exponential AI progress concerns[00:14:20] Hard assets as safety trade[00:18:10] Media disruption and SaaS analogy[00:23:05] Updating priors in markets[00:25:00] Arrogance versus humility in investing[00:27:10] Invitation for listener feedbackLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Host Andrew Walker speaks with Ryan Fennerty of AlphaSense about how investors can improve their use of expert calls and AI tools. Ryan shares practical ways to run better expert interviews, avoid bias, and extract deeper insight from operators. The conversation examines how AI is reshaping research workflows, accelerating earnings analysis, strengthening conviction, and enabling faster synthesis across expert transcripts and internal data. They also address portfolio monitoring, differentiated views, and the evolving skill set required for investors in an AI-driven landscape._____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and sponsor message[00:05:37] Framing expert calls around hypotheses[00:07:32] Transcripts versus live expert calls[00:12:36] Echo chambers and bias risks[00:16:37] Managing investor bias in calls[00:20:53] Expert bias and triangulation[00:23:26] Improving expert screening process[00:26:08] Real-time versus long-term insights[00:29:20] Note-taking and AI synthesis[00:31:51] AI’s biggest investing advantage[00:36:31] Differentiated views in AI era[00:41:17] Does AI commoditize research edge?[00:45:18] AI expanding opportunity funnel[00:49:32] Evolving skill sets for investors[00:51:30] AI in portfolio monitoring[00:54:17] Bias across AI data sources[00:56:31] AI transforming expert networks[01:00:17] Corporate use of expert insights[01:02:36] AI, fraud detection, and limits[01:05:47] Future of fundamental investingLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker speaks with David Kaiser, founder of Methodical Investments, a rules-based quantitative investment firm. David shares his journey from qualitative research to systematic value investing, explaining how structure, discipline, and data inform his approach. The conversation explores maintaining consistency amid evolving markets, the limits of AI, how to avoid pitfalls like melting ice cubes and governance traps, and why being different might still deliver alpha. They cover profitability screens, sector exposure, rule creation, and the timeless tension between sticking to principles and adapting to change._____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and host's gym mishap[00:03:40] David explains Methodical’s core model[00:04:21] From qualitative to rule-based process[00:06:13] Rules vs. adaptability tension[00:09:46] Quality plus discount over pure cheap[00:12:12] Profitability and portfolio construction[00:14:18] Metrics used: net income adjusted[00:16:14] Avoiding cyclicals and false cheapness[00:18:13] Sector tilts: discretionary, energy, financials[00:19:35] Competitive edge: consistency and patience[00:20:25] Value investing's long underperformance[00:22:09] Governance traps and data screens[00:25:24] Backtest: profitable companies outperform[00:26:26] Annual rebalance and risk control[00:29:08] Quarterly profit reviews to exit losers[00:31:06] Avoiding data errors and outliers[00:34:28] Addressing off-balance sheet risks[00:37:43] Building rules: testing, common sense[00:40:06] Rule relevance and market evolution[00:42:24] Sector constraints: no biotech, limit financials[00:44:43] Avoiding melting ice cubes stocks[00:48:26] AI as risk and potential edge[00:51:26] Fringe alpha in a crowded field[00:53:26] Backtesting across multiple market cycles[00:55:11] Where to find David and MethodicalLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back Bill Chen for the fastest return in YAVP history. After running out of time in their last chat, Bill returns to dissect Alexander’s Inc. (ALX), exploring its complex debt restructuring, unique real estate portfolio, and intriguing market valuation. The two dive deep into the Bloomberg HQ lease, the nuances of retail space refinancing, and the strategic implications of Steven Roth’s leadership. They also tackle REIT governance concerns, dividend sustainability, and the mystery behind ALX’s high short interest. Bill closes with thoughts on grocery-anchored REITs, White Stone, and REIT buybacks______________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew introduces returning guest Bill Chen[00:03:13] Overview of Alexander’s history and assets[00:06:57] Complex debt restructuring of Bloomberg retail space[00:10:04] Debt haircut and strategic implications[00:14:47] Asset breakdown: Bloomberg tower, retail, apartments[00:21:37] Share price vs. underlying asset value[00:23:28] Corporate governance: Roth and Vornado dynamics[00:29:09] Dividend risk and short interest discussion[00:34:37] Bloomberg lease escalators and valuation upside[00:37:10] Update on grocery-anchored REIT landscape[00:41:57] Commentary on REIT share buybacks[00:47:50] Special dividend catalyst: Rego potential saleLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Host Andrew Walker welcomes back Bill Chen for a wide-ranging discussion centered on the world of REITs. Though the conversation was intended to focus on one stock, the duo instead explores why REITs have underperformed in recent years, capital cycle dynamics, governance issues, and where Bill sees current opportunities. They dive deep into the theoretical and practical aspects of REIT investing, dissect recent REIT liquidations, and discuss portfolio construction and leverage in event-driven opportunities.______________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Intro and sponsor message[00:02:20] Launching into REIT investing theory[00:04:38] Cap rates vs. real estate value[00:08:03] Rent growth, leverage, and returns[00:11:06] Why REITs have lagged recently[00:15:51] Capital cycle theory in real estate[00:17:55] Governance issues with public REITs[00:22:23] Share buybacks vs. reinvestment[00:25:18] Griffin case study and alternatives[00:30:35] Takeouts and market inefficiencies[00:33:37] Where Bill sees dislocation now[00:36:11] Using leverage in liquidations[00:40:14] REIT liquidation downside surprises[00:42:00] Asset quality and bid dynamics[00:45:25] Legal risks in revised estimates[00:47:11] Unique REIT liquidation wave[00:49:31] Navigating current REIT opportunities[00:50:01] Wrap-up and next time teaseLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Andrew Walker returns solo for his January 2026 ramblings and discusses the current market euphoria, responses to his “weird markets” thesis, the allure and danger of stepping outside one’s investing edge, how power laws are often misunderstood, and an evolution in his views on societal vices. From geopolitical risk to sports betting regulation, Andrew digs into ideas that may shape investor mindsets in the months ahead.[00:00:00] January 2026 intro and disclaimers[00:01:15] Face-ripping rally and market euphoria[00:04:54] Greenland, tariffs, and taco trade risk[00:08:50] Weird markets thesis listener pushback[00:13:02] Misuse of AI in generating alpha[00:16:29] Slap-worthy portfolio diversification mistakes[00:20:28] Misreading power laws in indexes[00:22:52] Shifting stance on cannabis and gambling[00:25:42] Tail risk in vices and regulationLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Jeremy Raper returns for a deep-dive postmortem on his high-conviction investment in aviation leasing company AVAP. From sourcing the deal via Twitter, to acquiring a ~20% block at well below book value, to negotiating with key stakeholders and navigating operational hurdles, Jeremy recounts the challenges and victories of shareholder activism in a niche sector. This case study sheds light on the realities of unlocking value in the public markets and the grind behind executing a thesis, even when the setup looks ideal on paper._____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew introduces Jeremy and episode topic[00:02:11] Investment is a postmortem of AVAP[00:04:01] Jeremy's background in aviation leasing[00:09:41] Block purchase strategy and rationale[00:12:01] Purchase price details and thesis[00:13:45] Value from being largest shareholder[00:15:01] Behind-the-scenes work and learning[00:17:27] Complexity of executing activist strategies[00:23:46] Monetizing intangibles and aircraft rights[00:25:01] Shareholder base and interest after stake[00:28:24] Exiting AVAP and evaluating outcome[00:30:02] Final thoughts on learning from postmortemsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerThis podcast was sponsored by https://www.youtube.com/@UClqFz8aiVfSV2PviLcQrIbA Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

YAVP hall of famer Jeremy Raper returns to cover a wide range of topics—from Jeremy’s decision to shut down his investment blog to his perspective on underappreciated international markets like Japan and the UK. The episode culminates with an in-depth discussion on Jeremy’s high-stakes activist campaign at HUM Group, a non-bank Australian lender. Jeremy explains why he's pushing for a board overhaul and outlines governance red flags he believes shareholders shouldn't ignore.__________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:02:24] Jeremy reflects on his writing journey[00:05:21] Why Jeremy stopped his pay blog[00:08:58] Loss of inbound connections[00:12:29] State of Japanese event market[00:17:55] Deep value still thrives in Japan[00:19:09] Concerns with UK governance culture[00:25:49] Overview of HUM Group situation[00:30:29] Rejecting undervalued chairman offer[00:36:53] AGM governance failure issues[00:42:43] Call to vote and next stepsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Adam Buckstein from ASB partners explores Stride Inc. (formerly K12), the largest provider of virtual public schools in the U.S. Adam dives deep into the company's business model, regulatory framework, and competitive position, as well as the company's unique funding structure, post-COVID enrollment growth, market misconceptions, and the complex compliance challenges it faces. The conversation also dives into Stride’s outcomes, criticisms, AI’s future role in education, and the stock’s dramatic drop following an LMS implementation misstep. _____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:03:30] Stride’s virtual school structure[00:05:34] Funding model vs. for-profit colleges[00:07:16] Why parents choose virtual schools[00:09:19] Learning coach growth post-COVID[00:10:16] Payment structure for Stride[00:12:22] Outcome debates and challenges[00:17:38] Competitive landscape with Pearson[00:21:07] Stickiness of Stride contracts[00:23:22] Curriculum costs and customization[00:25:10] Economic sensitivity discussion[00:28:43] Student acquisition and marketing[00:32:44] October enrollment drop explained[00:35:42] LMS transition and enrollment loss[00:38:22] New Mexico lawsuit context[00:43:26] Outcome data interpretation issues[00:45:27] AI impact on Stride’s model[00:47:17] Financials and cash flow strength[00:51:10] Market overreaction to issues[00:54:09] Risks if outcomes lag in-person[00:56:33] Teachers union and school choiceLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

In this solo episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker introduces and unpacks his evolving investment concept: the Theory of Weird Markets. Andrew uses analogies from sports, AI, and Rubik’s Cube competitions to argue that traditional strategies in investing are increasingly obsolete. Instead, he suggests that in an age dominated by quant funds, AI, and machine learning, alpha lies at the edges—in unique, weird, or "N of 1" investment opportunities. This episode is part rough-draft, part invitation, as Andrew seeks listener feedback to refine the theory that will underpin much of his investing outlook for 2026. ____________________________________________________[00:00:00] Introduction and sponsor mention[00:02:02] Overview of episode structure[00:03:08] Theory of Weird Markets explained[00:05:17] Stock market as ultimate competition[00:09:09] Sports performance evolution examples[00:10:00] Rubik’s Cube as improvement analogy[00:13:11] Incentives in Rubik’s vs. investing[00:15:09] Finance history proves competition[00:17:30] Counterintuitive strategies dominate at scale[00:18:42] AI and chess: new strategy insights[00:20:00] AI poker strategy looks irrational[00:21:16] Humans must embrace “weird” edge[00:22:56] AI fails with unexpected variables[00:23:26] Power demand as under-modeled opportunity[00:24:35] Spinoffs and unique events as alpha[00:25:28] Warner Bros. Discovery case study[00:26:26] Management incentives and market edges[00:27:10] Writer’s block and theory reflection[00:28:21] Call for feedback and discussionLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Jon Boyar of Boyar Research for an (almost) annual discussion on the “Forgotten 40” — a curated list of 40 overlooked, value-oriented stocks. Jon outlines major 2025 themes including SMID caps and financials, before diving into deep valuations and sale potential for the Atlanta Braves, plus long-term positioning of Uber in an autonomous future. They also touch on media exposure, structural incentives, and the potential for corporate activism to unlock value in overlooked names.__________________________________________________[00:00:00] Intro to podcast and guest[00:02:53] History and aim of Forgotten 40[00:04:14] Turnover and name selection for 2025[00:05:13] Key 2025 themes: SMID & financials[00:06:42] Financials overweight rationale explained[00:08:07] Braves ownership, real estate, and thesis[00:10:59] Tax code change and sale incentive[00:12:09] Valuation math for Atlanta Braves[00:15:13] Media rights and sale timing risk[00:18:00] Malone incentives and sale complications[00:22:27] MLB work stoppage risk and reward[00:25:50] Baseball trends and geographic pull[00:26:15] MSGS ownership, family dynamics[00:29:53] Generational control and liquidity questions[00:30:54] Mark Cuban sale as precedent[00:33:36] Media names: fewer included this year[00:35:11] Uber thesis: misunderstood and evolving[00:37:25] AV risk vs strategic opportunity[00:39:03] Valuation vs zero-risk scenario[00:41:01] Eats vs Dash vs Instacart[00:41:56] Consumer pushback and price sensitivity[00:45:50] Waymo or Tesla acquisition logic[00:49:17] Bonus pick: UniFirst & Cintas pursuit[00:52:05] Activism, family dynamics, and valuation[00:53:11] Wrap-up and links to Forgotten 40Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

After a long hiatus, one of the people's most popular guests returns. Randy Baron ventures across the pond to talk about Victoria PLC. Victoria has run into hard times, driven by a bunch of debt and a vicious cyclical downturn, but Randy sees some light at the end of the tunnel and goes into all the ways the company can survive the downturn and the huge potential upside for the common stock if he's right.___________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:01:59] Reintroducing guest Randy Barron[00:02:43] Company overview: Victoria PLC[00:05:16] Stock down 95%, what happened[00:09:58] Audit issue worsens perception[00:11:58] UK flooring market fragmentation[00:15:23] Headlam distress affects Victoria[00:16:40] Business story vs. distressed debt[00:19:44] Victoria's debt breakdown[00:21:04] Coke preferred equity explained[00:25:54] Coke takeover rules in UK[00:28:16] Preferred overhang and resolution[00:30:22] Stock impact from deal structure[00:33:02] Coke debt buyout possibility[00:34:07] Cyclical vs. structural downturn[00:36:36] Housing slowdown impacts demand[00:37:32] 2028 bonds trade at heavy discount[00:41:48] Asset sales to pay down debt[00:43:01] Jeff Wilding's role and strategy[00:47:28] Chairman’s capital allocation record[00:48:01] Assessing market misjudgment[00:50:19] UK market investment case[00:51:46] UK stamp tax impact[00:52:19] Making UK more investible[00:54:38] Macro vs. valuation gap in UK[00:55:16] Downside risk and cash flowLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Judd Arnold from Lake Cornelia Capital joins for a wide ranging discussion of inflection investing, $TOI's unique oncology model, and tons of stuff on risk management and portfolio construction.See Lake Cornelia's Substack here: https://lakecornelia.substack.com/ ___________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast intro and guest announcement[00:02:41] Judd on becoming a father[00:03:40] Judd discusses launching Substack[00:06:30] Complexity versus simplicity in investing[00:07:52] Liquidity and investor interest matter[00:11:06] Inflection investing over valuation focus[00:15:59] Sector and story versus fundamentals[00:19:55] TOI scalability and market potential[00:25:26] TOI business model and economics[00:31:32] Comparisons with other healthcare models[00:39:31] Consulting impact on investment process[00:44:21] Sizing up at inflection points[00:50:48] Risk profiles in portfolio strategy[00:53:20] M&A strategy and market perceptions[00:57:35] Netflix synergies and investor worries[01:01:45] Warner Bros bidding strategy discussionLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Host Andrew Walker delivers his monthly random ramblings for December 2025, reflecting on a decade of "professional public-market investing". Andrew shares a developing thesis on why markets are becoming increasingly strange, drawing parallels to evolution in sports, chess, and technology. He examines how efficiency, quant strategies, leverage, and speculative behavior have reshaped market dynamics. Andrew also walks through several investing beliefs he’s changed his mind on over the past ten years, including valuation metrics, buybacks, real estate, technical analysis, and holding periods. He closes by reflecting on lessons learned from podcast guests, risk-taking, arrogance, and the role of luck versus skill in generating outsized returns.______________________________________________________[00:00:00] Episode introduction[00:02:19] Monthly solo rambling format[00:04:14] Ten-year investing reflection[00:04:59] Markets growing increasingly strange[00:05:20] Sports and strategy analogy[00:06:45] Market efficiency reaching extremes[00:07:34] Weird situations driving returns[00:09:38] Changing minds over decade[00:10:31] Pure valuation metrics questioned[00:11:36] Buybacks losing importance[00:13:39] Hidden real estate disappointments[00:15:13] Technical analysis partial acceptance[00:16:19] Rethinking long-term holding[00:18:25] Three-year reevaluation rule[00:19:31] Risk management maturation[00:22:12] Podcast shaping investor thinking[00:24:14] Luck versus skill debate[00:26:31] Media deal commentary critique[00:28:45] Looking ahead next decade[00:29:38] Holiday wishes and closingLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Christian Olesen of Olesen Value Funds discusses the opportunities in UK homebuilders. The discussion centers on why the UK equity market remains deeply out of favor and how this pessimism has created compelling value in residential developers. Christian outlines the cyclical dynamics driving depressed demand, explains why Bellway stands out among peers, and explores balance sheet strength, land valuation, and downside protection. The conversation also addresses macro concerns around the UK economy, housing affordability, planning regulations, and management incentives. __________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Episode and guest introduction[00:03:26] UK market deeply discounted[00:05:13] Cyclical demand collapse explained[00:08:20] Bellway valuation framework[00:11:47] UK macro risk debate[00:15:09] Domestic investor pessimism[00:17:37] Quantitative versus qualitative thesis[00:21:15] Land write-down risk discussion[00:26:58] Bellway versus peers[00:30:41] Management incentives concerns[00:32:43] Capital allocation changes[00:38:53] American investor influence[00:41:08] Alternatives within UK market[00:45:23] Planning reform tailwinds[00:46:58] Supply constraints implications[00:49:35] Risk-reward summaryLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

Hugo Navarro of Undervalued and Undercovered discusses NCR Atlas (NATL), a company operating at the intersection of legacy cash infrastructure and modern outsourcing economics. The conversation centers on whether ATMs represent a declining business or a misunderstood opportunity, unpacking NCR Atlas’s valuation, free cash flow profile, and competitive positioning within a duopoly market. Hugo outlines the company’s ATM-as-a-service strategy, highlighting scale advantages, incremental margins, and incentives for banks to outsource servicing. See Hugo's NATL write up here: https://smallcaptreasures.substack.com/p/a-127-fcf-yielding-duopoly-growing?utm_source=publication-search___________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:04:01] NCR Atlas business overview[00:05:27] Why valuation appears cheap[00:07:05] Cash usage decline debate[00:12:55] ATM-as-a-service thesis[00:16:54] ATM replacement cycle explained[00:19:15] Industry scale and servicing[00:20:56] Why banks outsource ATMs[00:24:07] Incremental margin economics[00:26:37] Long-term ATM demand risks[00:35:51] Declining industry outsourcing logic[00:38:34] Free cash flow drivers[00:41:11] Share gains from banks[00:47:36] Accounting and governance concerns[00:53:22] Diebold competitive comparison[00:56:04] Tariffs and guidance outlook[00:57:33] Interest rate sensitivityLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimerProduction and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/

A wide-ranging conversation with Lead Edge Capital's Evan Skorpen talking about applying a concentrated, long-term strategy to growth tech investing. Key topics include capital allocation, executive incentives, and investing in "air pockets."[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:02:59] Lead Edge strategy overview[00:07:16] AI’s impact on software[00:13:32] How CEOs react to markets[00:24:29] Investor days and messaging[00:30:40] Remitly’s capital allocation shift[00:36:09] Importance of long-term KPIs[00:44:07] Aligning shareholder and board goals[00:46:37] Incentives and externalities discussed[00:51:17] M&A risk versus growth[00:57:49] Lead Edge’s unique investing edge[01:01:53] AI risk to software moatsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

David Thomas, author of The Fairfax Way (amazon link: https://amzn.to/4adQ7JS), comes on the podcast for a wide-ranging podcast on Fairfax, including the company's origins, macro wins, missteps in insurance, and what the future looks like for Fairfax as Prem approaches his 80s.__________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Andrew returns with David Thomas[00:02:31] David’s background in business journalism[00:06:25] Fairfax’s long-term investment returns[00:08:16] Evolution of investment and insurance strategy[00:13:01] Fairfax’s stock picking and equity style[00:16:39] Inflation themes in stock selection[00:20:32] BlackBerry investment strategy and challenges[00:24:14] Macro success: shorting housing and tech[00:29:20] 2010–2016 bearish misstep reflection[00:35:12] Politics influence on macro decisions[00:36:56] Prem’s current macro outlook[00:40:55] Discussion of Fairfax valuation[00:41:34] Book value and buyback logic[00:44:28] Overview of the short seller campaign[00:49:04] Perspective on Fairfax's hedge fund lawsuit[00:51:14] Succession planning at Fairfax[00:53:44] Stability of all business segments[00:57:45] 15% target: still realistic?Links:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Host Andrew Walker delivers his November ramblings with four key themes. He kicks things off with a story about craps in Vegas to illustrate how early wins in investing can falsely reinforce flawed strategies. Andrew also explores the mental traps of buying stocks he initially passed on, offers cautious commentary on shorting the so-called "AI bubble," and reflects on why trusting management projections and NAV estimates often ends in disappointment. With a new baby on the way, Andrew signs off with personal updates and an open invitation for listeners to reach out and discuss these topics further._________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast intro and disclaimer[00:02:05] Wins lure into false security[00:12:45] Passed stocks drop, then buy[00:20:00] Shorting AI bubble discussed[00:26:20] Trusting management and NAV[00:28:40] Final thoughts and baby updateLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

On the heels of sending an open letter to the Golden Entertainment's (GDEN; disclosure: long) board, host Andrew Walker dives deeper into Golden's take private deal and why he believes it transfers ~$300m of value from minority shareholders to insiders.Open letter to GDEN board: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/an-open-letter-to-the-golden-entertainment___________________________________________________________[00:00:02] Intro to special episode[00:03:26] Comparison to Louvre heist[00:04:20] Smoking guns and IR site change[00:07:35] Sale leaseback structure details[00:09:15] Valuation analysis and critique[00:13:30] Everbay letter and valuation math[00:16:45] Management buyout vs. fair value[00:19:00] Critique of go-shop process[00:21:10] Regulatory hurdles for go-shop[00:23:40] Call for fair deal structure[00:24:50] Closing thoughts and disclaimerLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Chadd Garcia joins the five timers club and talks about his investment thesis for WaterBridge (WBI). WaterBridge is a recent IPO that manages water from oil drilling, largely in the Permian Basin. Chadd's spent a lot of time on oil services and infrastructure, and he breaks down how this investment relates to prior investments in LandBridge, Texas Pacific, and Secure. He also talks about the opportunity for growth and pricing power at WaterBridge.__________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast intro and Chad returns[00:02:24] WaterBridge’s core operations explained[00:04:41] Pipelines and disposal network details[00:06:03] Missed waste parallels in analysis[00:10:52] Valuation setup and contract pricing[00:13:04] 2025 EBITDA forecast discussed[00:14:45] Scalability from current infrastructure[00:15:37] Infrastructure ROICs and economics[00:17:33] Land ownership and strategic value[00:19:05] WaterBridge vs. LandBridge relationship[00:22:25] Why Devon partners with WaterBridge[00:27:35] Sponsor structure and conflict resolution[00:29:30] Regulatory risk and permitting update[00:33:39] Permian basin long-term outlook[00:35:10] Increasing water cuts impact volumes[00:36:41] Oil price sensitivity and volume trends[00:38:03] Organic growth via MVC contracts[00:39:11] Maintenance capex benchmarking[00:41:40] Capital allocation and future returns[00:42:31] Waste comps and multiple discussion[00:45:49] Terminal value and ROIC comparisons[00:47:57] Key risks: spills and short reports[00:49:12] Environmental downside vs. oil spills[00:51:25] Short reports and perceived conflicts[00:52:21] Why WaterBridge and LandBridge are separate[00:53:08] Investor day importance and growth[00:54:10] Chad’s visibility helps spread thesis[00:56:54] Housing workers for Texas data center boomLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Andrei Stetsenko from Gymkhana Partners explores the investment case for Indian holdcos in general and Maharashtra Scooters in particular. Andrei outlines why he isn't just looking for a discount to NAV; he talks about how he breaks down the underlying NAV and incentives of the key players when assessing an Indian holdco, and how he believes the control of the Bajaj Group can create long term value.Gymkhana Partners website: www.gymkhanapartners.comGymkhana's Q3 letter: https://www.gymkhanapartners.com/investor-letters/gymkhana-partners-q3-2025-quarterly-letterPost on financialization of Indian savings: https://www.gymkhanapartners.com/dispatches/the-equitization-of-indian-savingsDoug's Alphasense webinar: ______________________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction[00:02:57] Indian holdcos and Bajaj group[00:05:47] Maharashtra Scooter NAV breakdown[00:06:45] Growth prospects in Bajaj firms[00:09:03] Insurance and lending discipline[00:12:45] Risks of investing abroad[00:15:25] India research and diligence[00:17:03] India-dedicated fund strategy[00:19:08] India’s economic transformation[00:22:20] Attractive Indian holdcos overview[00:25:36] Holdco incentive and structure[00:28:50] SEBI reforms and catalysts[00:29:41] Parallels with Japan’s reforms[00:32:58] Professionalization and buyback signs[00:33:46] Shareholder alignment and liquidity[00:36:48] Family dynamics and governance[00:39:23] NAV reliability and fundamentals[00:42:03] Buybacks, dividends, and hurdles[00:43:59] Governance: India vs US[00:47:06] Potential unlock mechanisms[00:49:56] Past performance and future growth[00:52:33] Closing thoughts and blog postsLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.comSee our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

Doug O’Loughlin of Fabricated Knowledge and SemiAnalysis returns to the podcast in to dive into all things AI, Power, and Corporate Governance. On the AI side, they discuss where we are in the cycle, if AI is a bubble, and what will drive the next leg of growth. On the corporate governance side, they discuss using signals like off-cycle PSU grants to reflexive incentive structures to find investments, as well as diving into some topical examples. (PS- Doug’s last appearance was podcast #166 on AppLovin $APP, which doubles as the best performing pitch in YAVP history).LinksDoug's AppLovin $APP podcast appearanceDoug's Webinar with AlphaSenseFabricatated Knowledge: ____________________________________________________________[00:00:00] Podcast intro and Doug’s background[00:02:36] AI sector partying vs. value sadness[00:04:06] AI’s capital cycle and bubble setup[00:07:04] Oracle’s shift to debt-fueled capex[00:09:45] Why capital intensity changes multiples[00:11:48] TPU vs. Nvidia: a real challenger[00:13:07] Google’s evolving TPU go-to-market[00:16:02] AI scaling walls and RL progress[00:18:24] Reinforcement learning and Dota AI[00:20:15] Token economics and GPU monetization[00:22:02] OpenAI, profitability, and token resale[00:24:00] AI’s deflationary impact and services[00:26:51] Revisiting the power bottleneck thesis[00:27:44] Power grid constraints and worker shortages[00:31:33] Industrials benefiting from AI buildout[00:32:22] Generalist vs. specialist investor gaps[00:33:47] Specialist traps in relative valuation[00:36:36] Doug’s obsession with board behavior[00:38:19] Do boards game investors with PSUs?[00:41:12] Reflexive incentives at Broadcom example[00:42:17] Mimification and pump incentives at Opendoor[00:44:46] Performance incentives vs. job requirements[00:46:19] Biotech boards failing shareholder alignment[00:46:42] PSU timing around Target Hospitality’s drop[00:52:09] ICE contracts and bed shortage opportunity[00:56:54] Housing workers for Texas data center boomLinks:Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer