All Episodes

Episode 78: When Higher for Longer Bites: Bonds, Housing, and the Next Credit Cycle

Episode 77: From Central Banks to SpaceX: Investing Through the Next Industrial Revolution

Episode 76: The Budget Shock: Rates, Housing, and Australia’s Capital Flight Risk

Episode 75: War, Rates, and Risk: Where to Hide in a Fragile Macro Regime

Episode 74: War in Middle East; Oil Price Shock; Inflation and Interest Rates

Episode 73: Bonds, Bots, and Base Rates: Where Yields Go Next

Episode 72: America First, Inflation Second: Trump, Power Politics, and the End of Easy Money

Episode 71: From Lucky Country to Lazy Land: When the State Smothers Markets

Episode 70: AI Capex: The Trillion-Dollar Inflation Time-Bomb

Episode 69: The Hybrid Market Shake-Up; Global Shifts; and What’s Next for Aussie Investors?

Episode 68: Making Sense of the Fixed Income Paradox; Rising Term Premia; September Market Rally; Aussie Economic Outlook

Episode 67: From the RBA to the Fed: Policy, Politics, and the Hunt for Yield

Tariff Trades & Shark Tales - Guest Appearance on Without Boundaries

That Crazy Aussie Shop - Guest Appearance on Without Boundaries

Episode 66: Middle East Tensions, Trump Tariffs & Australia's Economic Drift – Guest Appearance on Straight Talk with Mark Bouris

Episode 65: Musk–Trump Fallout; RBA to Continue Cutting Rates; Portfolio Performance

Episode 64: Hedging April Trade War Chaos; Buying $4bn After Bad News Became Priced; Biggest Opportunities Ahead

Episode 63: Trump’s Tariffs & How the Trade War Will Hit Australia – Guest Appearance on Straight Talk with Mark Bouris

Episode 62: Trump’s Tariff Plans; US Fiscal Risks; RBA’s Evolving Rate Outlook; January Returns

Episode 61: Outlook for 2025; Performance Over Last Year; Trumpian Regime Change; Addressing the Big Questions

Episode 60: Hybrid Market Dies; RBA Wants to Cut Rates; Portfolio Performance; Australia's Profound Productivity Puzzle

Episode 59: What Trump Means for Portfolios; Inflation; Interest Rates; and Recent Performance

Episode 58: September Performance; US Economic Strength; Long-Term Interest Rate Moves; APRA Increases Bank Leverage; Trading Regulatory Risk

Episode 57: Great Public vs Private Credit Debate; Killer vs Gorilla; Is Private Credit the Next Sub-Prime Crisis; APRA Tries to Kill Hybrid Market…

Episode 56: $80m Record Home Sale; Is Public Spending Driving Inflation; Reaccelerating in 2025; Dictators vs Democracy; Neo-Socialism

Episode 55: Volatility Shock; Bond Market Performance; RBA Jawboning; Arrogant Aussies

Episode 54: What a Trump Presidency means for Inflation, Interest rates, Asset Prices & Geo-Politics

Episode 53: Episode 53: Will Fed Cut Rates In September; Sahm Rule Implies US Recession Coming; Why PIMCO Says Private Credit Unattractive; And Best Performing Asset-Classes in 2024

Episode 52: Sovereign Debt Crises are Back; France on the Brink; Aussie States Out of Control; Inflation Numbers Key to Asset Prices

Episode 51: Zombies Drop Like Flies; Default Cycle Erupts; French Bonds Implode; Fiscal Policy Swamps Monetary Policy; May Returns

Episode 50: Stagflation; Kiwi Independence; Private Credit LIT; and the New Sub Debt ETF (BSUB)

Episode 49: Central Banks Bowing to Politicians; Budget Deficits Powering Inflation; Portfolio Performance

Episode 48: April Returns; RBA Struggles with Credibility Crisis; All Eyes on US CPI

Episode 47: Flash Podcast; Death of Central Bank Independence; Monetary Mandarins Captive to Political Masters

Episode 46: Punchy Podcast; Aussie & US Inflation Surge; Stock Jockeys on Precipice

Episode 45: Punchy Flash Podcast; Global Inflation Surge; What it Means for Asset Prices

Episode 44: The Reacceleration of Inflation; What this Means for Equities & Bonds; Portfolio Outlook; Credit Rating Upgrades for Banks; the Conundrum if we get Immaculate Disinflation and CCI is wrong

Episode 43; Existential Investment Questions for 2024; Asset-Allocation Shifts; Stubborn Services Inflation; Interest Rate Risks; Asset-Class Performance

Episode 42: Returns in 2023; Outlook for 2024; Markets Priced for Perfection; Key Latent Risks; Capital Structure Relative Value

Episode 41: Government Bond Yields Hit 5%; Buying Bank Bonds Yielding 7.5%; Why Fixed-Rate Bond Duration is Attractive; Fed Makes the RBA Look Like Sleepy Hollow

Episode 40: Bond Yields Increase Further; New Hybrids; Credit Suisse Reflections; and Optimal Asset-Allocation

Episode 39: Commercial Property in Crisis; Default Cycle Ramps Up; Non-Banks Under Pump; Bond Market Performance; Optimal Asset-Allocation; Best Trade Ideas; Sticky Inflation and Rates

Episode 38: Winners and Losers in FY23; Best Returns for FY24; Are Rate Hikes Coming to an End; Prepare for a Persistent Pain Trade; Bonds vs Equities

Episode 37: Silicon Valley Bank; Credit Suisse; the Transfer of Wealth from Equity to Debt; Aussie Banks win in Flight to Quality; Default Cycle Ramps Up; Consumer Buffers; Best Trades and more

Episode 36: The Coming Recession and Monster Default Cycle; why Illiquidity is Concealing Huge Risks; the Rise of Risk-free Yield and what it Means for Asset-Allocation

Episode 35: The RBA’s sledgehammer is yet to fall; Bank bonds paying 6.75% pa; Riskier asset-classes to get hosed

Episode 34: Reflections on 2022 and Outlook for 2023

Episode 33: Global Recession in 2023; Housing Hammered; Equities Risks; & Bond Market Opportunities

Episode 32: Hunting Zombie Companies; the Next Sub-Prime Crisis in High-Yield Debt; the Outlook for Interest Rates; and the Aussie Housing Crash Accelerates

Episode 31: US Recession; Bond Markets Bounce; Record Aussie Housing Correction; Opportunities Emerge

Episode 30: How March 2022 officially became the worst month in history for the Aussie bond market.

Episode 29: Whether Crypto is the 21st century Tulip Bulb Bubble?

Episode 28: Looking ahead into 2022; Trajectory for inflation, rates and asset prices; NSW slashes debt issuance by $20bn; Machines entering bond market

Episode 27: House prices falling 20% if rates rise; Forecasting global wars; RBA vs bond bandits; October performance

Episode 26: Inflationary headwinds for duration/equities, ESG Activism, Evergrande, APRA closing $139bn CLF, RBA QE3

Episode 25: Forecasting Australian Herd Immunity; Vaccines Hitting 91% Adult Coverage; Borders Re-Opening in 2022; And Why the Strong Jobs Data is Not What it Seems...

Episode 24: Forecasting the Aussie Housing Boom

Episode 23: Housing Affordability Non-Crisis; Bond Market Rebound; March Performance; Bank Liquidity Issues; RBA’s QE3 Program; Credit Markets; & Budget Deficits

Episode 22: The Bond Market Bloodbath; February Returns; RBA QE 3.0 and 4.0; & How the RBA’s Governor Phil Lowe Brutally Blew-Up the Bond Bandits…

Episode 21: January Returns; RBA QE 1.0, 2.0, 3,0 and 4.0; WWIII; House Bubble Non-Issue; and the Reddit Rambo’s Retail Revolution

Episode 20: 2020 in Review; Outlook for 2021; Housing Forecasts; Big Left and Right Tail Risks & More

Episode 19: Traders vs Investors; Why Markets are Ignoring Second Waves; Central Banks Disintermediating Markets; Performance; and Turning Beta into Alpha

Episode 18: The Next Big Pivot Point for Markets – COVID-19 Vaccines; June Performance; Liquidity in Bond Markets; NAB’s Landmark Unlisted Hybrid Deal; And More

Episode 17: Mean-Reversion; Don’t Fight the Fed; Aussie Housing; Best Investment Opportunities; Cold War 2.0

Episode 16: Impact of Covid-19 on Markets, Future Risks Including US-China Relations, Global Debt Crises, EU Disintegration and Aussie Housing

Episode 15: Coronavirus Special, Central Bank Action, Next Crisis To Be Triggered by Subprime Corp Loans, Aussie Housing

Episode 14: 2019 Performance Wrap-up; Coolabah's Approach to Life; Coming of a Dangerous Decade; Rise of Zombie Companies; Lunch with One of the World's Biggest HF Managers

Episode 13: Bond Market Returns in 2019; Welcoming Pinnacle to our Family; Human Frailties of the World's Greatest Investor; RBA vs the Govt over Fiscal Policy and More...

Episode 12: Competition Facing the Big Banks; Is High Yield Debt Just Equities in Disguise; Aussie Housing; RBA Rate Cuts & QE; Looking Into Next Year

Episode 11: Keen vs Joye; Is Capitalism Dead; CBA's New Hybrid Deal; Hybrids vs Foreign High Yield; the Coming of Aussie QE and Much More

Episode 10: Why the Best Investors Use Shrinks; Magellan’s Revolution; Trade Wars Rumble On; Why Aussie Bonds Pay Higher Outright Spreads; the Power of Questioning the Consensus and more

Episode 9: “Bail-In-Able” Debt Tsunami Special – Markets In June & July; The TLAC Tidal-Wave; How Early Deals Performed; Can Banks Fund $90bn of Bail-In-Able Bonds; And Thinking About Fair Value

Episode 8: QE Special – Housing Recovery, RBA Rate Cuts, How Much Banks Pass Through, Trading RBA Quantitative Easing (QE), And Search For Yield

Episode 7: Trade War Special – Trump and Xi’s Game of Thrones, and May Market Performance Update

Episode 6: ScoMo Wins, Impact on Investments, Housing Market Turning, RBA/APRA rate cuts, Best Pieces of Capital Structure, RMBS Opportunities, ScoMo’s Agenda

Episode 5: Trade War Erupts, Coming of Aussie QE, End of Aussie Housing Correction, How Currency Hedging and Duration Distort Returns and More…

Episode 4: The Big Credit Rally, Is the Housing Bust Over, Will RBA Engage in Unconventional Policy, Could ScoMo Win, Rising RMBS Risks, ALP Franking Failures, and Magellan on LIC Risks

Episode 3: Budget Surplus, Could Banks Cut for RBA, RMBS Risks, Great Housing Debate, Unisuper investing $1.3bn in Hybrids and More

Episode 2: Will the RBA Blow the Bubble Back-Up, the ESG Alpha Mirage, and Much More

Episode 1: Welcome to the Complexity Premia Podcast