Bonus Episode: Latest Campaign Finance Numbers

Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode we will go over the latest campaign to finance numbers and see what they might tell us about the Virginia elections.So on Monday it was the deadline for the campaigns running this year to file their campaign finance reports and it covered the months of July and August.00:25.33Sam ShiraziSo big picture, I think overall it was a pretty good report for the Democrats. I'll go over the statewide offices, then I'll talk a little bit about the House of Delegates, and then I'll talk about what it might mean for the Virginia elections.00:37.67Sam ShiraziAt the top of the ticket, the Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger raised more money than the Republican nominee Winston Earl Sears. So just kind of break down the numbers, Spanberger raised over $14 million dollars. And she has about $11.5 million of that in cash and about $2.5 million in in-kind contributions. I don't always break down the difference between cash and in-kind contributions.01:06.89Sam ShiraziBecause Spanberger got a decent amount of in-kind contributions, I just wanted to break it down here. But usually I'm, I don't go into that level of detail, but just wanted to note that, uh, once in Earl Sears, she raised, uh, 5.2 million and most of that was in cash with a little bit of in kind.01:24.79Sam ShiraziObviously Spanberger has raised almost three times as much as Earl Sears during this time period. In terms of cash on hand, Spanberger had 12.2 million, whereas Earl Sears had about 4.9 million.01:38.29Sam ShiraziAnd one thing I wanted to talk about, because I think i tend to fall in this trap where I just look at the amount raised and the cash on hand, and that's kind of the numbers that most people look at. But I also like to look at the amount spent because...01:52.38Sam ShiraziAt the end of the day, you know the money the reason you're raising all this money is not so you can file a fundraising report and say, look how much money I raised. It's so that you can actually spend the money to try to win the election.02:04.75Sam ShiraziAnd I thought what was interesting was Spanberger, she spent in those two months seventeen over $17 million. dollars And that's compared to $4.8 million for Earl Sears.02:15.70Sam ShiraziAnd even though Spanberger spent $17 million, she still had... she still had all that cash on hand. So she still had over $12 million dollars cash on hand.02:26.27Sam ShiraziAnd so when you look at the fundraising numbers, it's not just the fact that Spanberger is raising a lot more than Earl Sears. She's just spending a lot more than Earl Sears. So that means that she's got more ads out there. She's reaching more voters.02:40.02Sam ShiraziSo I think the fundraising numbers are a little bit of a reality check for the Republicans. There have been some polls that have also been a bit of a reality check for the Republicans.02:50.18Sam ShiraziI think, you know, it's just a difficult ah ah reality that they're facing where they're in a tough environment and they aren't necessarily having the cash advantage, at least at the governor's level, to really, you know, compete on the airwaves. Now, we've talked about how during the Winsomey Earl Sears reboot strategy, she has tried to do more social media engagement, try to get some more free media, local and national media.03:16.41Sam Shiraziyou know, I think that that's worked to a certain extent. I think the problem Earl Sears has with that approach is a lot of it's preaching to the choir. So she'll she'll post a lot on X and she'll get, you know, a decent amount of engagement.03:29.62Sam Shiraziit's unclear how many like swing voters that that's reaching because frankly, most people and aren't on X and it's just not like, you know, the most important thing in the world, even though, you know, we sometimes think like that if if all you do is spend all day on X. So it's unclear like how many voters in the middle she's able to reach. And even, even with the free media she's getting often, she's going on very sympathetic media,03:54.87Sam ShiraziSo while, yes, going on Fox News every night probably doesn't hurt and you can get some donations out of that and you may reach some voters in Virginia. I mean, realistically, if you're watching Fox News, almost certainly you're already going to be voting for the Republicans if you are in Virginia. I mean, not 100 percent, but a good amount of the Fox News viewers are probably going already vote for the Republicans.04:15.08Sam ShiraziSo I think. the The reboot strategy makes sense to try to get free social media and free traditional media coverage if you're Earl Sears because you don't necessarily have the money. I think the flaw in the strategy is she's not engaging enough with non-conservative media and non-conservative social media potentially to maybe...04:34.04Sam Shirazimake it worth the while or maybe be able to catch up to some of the inherent fundraising advantage that Spamburger has. And if you think about where Spamburger is running all these ads, she's running them on streaming, she's running them on social media, she's running them on traditional TV.04:47.98Sam ShiraziAnd so those people typically are not tuned in streaming. politics And so you are not necessarily the type person that's watching the news. If you're watching a football game on Sunday and then you see a Spanberger ad, I mean, you're probably not a diehard politico. And so you're reaching people that maybe – through this free media strategy that Earl Sears is trying to do doesn't reach. So, you know, Earl Sears posting on X or Earl Sears going on Fox News. I mean, those people are already probably very highly engaged voters who are going to vote no matter what.05:20.73Sam ShiraziI think the problem Earl Sears has is the people who she needs to reach who are watching football on a Sunday afternoon. I mean, I'm not sure what her strategy is to try to reach those people because she doesn't necessarily have the cash to do that.05:33.67Sam ShiraziAll right. Now I'll also talk about some of the other statewide offices. Lieutenant governor does not as interesting as the numbers aren't as big, but a democratic nominee is all hash. We definitely has the advantage. She raised about 1.4 million.05:47.14Sam ShiraziShe spent about 480,000 and she has 2.2 million cash on hand. So obviously she's got a good chunk of change to work with in the closing months of the campaign.05:59.28Sam ShiraziJohn Reed is far behind. He's only raised $317,000. He's spent about $220,000. think his problem is he only has about $317,000 cash on hand. So I think John Reed is just like not necessarily raising the money that he needs to run at the level of some of these other campaigns.06:22.93Sam ShiraziAgain, I think the one thing on John Reed is good at is he's good on social media. He's good at getting free media to maybe... fill in some of the gaps he has in the fundraising. But just like Winston Merle Sears, he has a similar problem where he tends to preach to the a choir. He tends to go to places that are already conservative media.06:40.37Sam ShiraziAnd so are you really flipping any voters if you just go on conservative talk radio all the time? Probably not. And so I think that's another problem that John Reed's going to have is he just doesn't have the fundraising numbers to really run his own ads or anything like that.06:55.57Sam ShiraziAll right, rounding rounding out the statewide offices, we'll go to Attorney General. I ah this is the race where the Republicans have a little bit of an advantage. But I should note that the Democratic nominee, Jay Jones, did out-raise Jason Meares this last reporting cycle. So Jay Jones, he raised $4 million, dollars and he spent about $1.5 million, and he has $3.7 million cash on hand.07:19.04Sam ShiraziJason Meares, the incumbent Republican, he raised $3.7 million. He has, he spent around about 3.6 million and he has 7 million cash on hand. So overall, you know, Meares still has an advantage in the money race, but Jay Jones was able to out-raise him. And obviously Jason Meares is an incumbent. So anytime a challenger raises an incumbent,07:40.08Sam ShiraziOut raises an incumbent. I think that shows, you know, the incumbent is facing a real race. And, you know, obviously, Meares is running his ads. I think Jones is also running ads.07:51.84Sam ShiraziSo attorney general, both sides spending, raising money. The Republicans have a little bit of advantage in the attorney general race. But I'd say the problem Jason Meares has is that the top of the ticket is just not keeping up.08:03.14Sam Shiraziin terms of his top of the ticket versus Jones' top of the ticket. And while obviously money helps, Meares can run the ads. It kind of reaches those swing voters who aren't super tuned into politics.08:15.57Sam ShiraziThe challenge that Meares has is just, you know, if if Earl Sears is not able to keep up at the top of the ticket, then, you know, it's going to make his race that much harder. So overall, I mean, i don't want to say that the money shows that the Democrats are definitely going to win and the Republicans are in a huge amount of trouble.08:33.84Sam ShiraziTypically the way that election analysts look at elections, you look at different metrics, you look at polling, you look at... the enthusiasm of the different sides, you look at potentially fundraising. And so that's one of the metrics among many that you're looking at when you're trying to see which side has an advantage.08:51.06Sam ShiraziIn 2021, you know, I will say Glenn Youngkin put a lot of his own money in. He was able to fundraise pretty strongly. And so I think in 2021, the Virginia Republicans didn't have really a money issue that they do in this cycle. So while The Republicans tend to say, oh we're always you know trying to compete with the Democratic money, and we're always behind. i mean, I think in 2021, they weren't behind. And I think generally they spent more, at least on the governor's race in 2021.09:20.55Sam ShiraziAnd that was one of Youngkin's keys to success. So if you think about what's different between 2021 and 2025 for the Virginia Republicans, one of them is just the fact that they don't have the same amount of money to run the ads to the Democrats. So again, doesn't mean that Democrats are 100% guaranteed victory because they're raising more money.09:39.43Sam ShiraziBut I think it it is one thing among many other factors have to consider this year in terms of you know which side has has the advantage. All right. Now let's talk about the House of Delegates. So overall, Democrats raised almost twice as much as the Republicans in all the House races. So in the House Delegates, Democrats raised close to $8.9 million, whereas Republicans raised about $4.4 million.10:01.100Sam Shiraziwhereas republicans raised about four point four million That's total overall in all the races. And I think that's generally reflected in the battleground districts that Democrats are targeting.10:13.26Sam ShiraziAnd basically, the Democrats out-raised all the Republicans in all the battleground districts, with the exception of one where the Republican was able to raise more than the Democratic challenger. That's House District 75. So the Republican in that district was able to out-raise the Democrat. But every other district...10:30.92Sam ShiraziThe Democrat outraised the Republican. And in several districts, the Democrat both outraised the Republican and has more cash on hand than the Republican. So again, and and these are typically almost all Republican incumbents that are trying to survive in a tough environment.10:46.17Sam ShiraziAnd the Democrats are outraising them. And in some cases, the Democrats have more cash on hand in those races. So that What we're seeing at the top of the ticket is also reflected in the House of Delegates where these local candidates have more money on the Democratic side.11:02.10Sam ShiraziAnd I think you they're obviously so going to spend that on trying to get their name out and particularly on TV ads. And I think what these local HACA delegates candidates will want to do is really minimize the ticket splitting.11:16.84Sam ShiraziBecause the way it works is typically the top of the ticket is going to perform best for the Democrats. I'm guessing Spanberger is going to have the best performance of the Democrats this year in Virginia.11:29.73Sam ShiraziSo you might see her winning certain battleground districts by five or four points. And I think that's the margin where down ballot, you want to minimize ticket splitting. Because if there's a Spanberger five point win in your district and you're able to minimize ticket splitting to maybe 2%, you're going to win that race.11:49.37Sam ShiraziAnd so you need the money to get your name out there to counter the incumbent Republican to maybe minimize ticket splitting. The reverse of that, if you're a Republican, you would like as much ticket splitting as possible.12:01.24Sam ShiraziI mean, ideally you'd like your candidate to win your district, but if your candidate doesn't win at the top of the ticket, win the district, you have to get some ticket splitting. And so obviously if you have money that can help you get some ticket splitting.12:13.36Sam ShiraziI'm guessing in the House of Delegates that like 5% is the magic number that a candidate will need in order to, where ticket splitting doesn't really matter. I think if it's more than 5%, almost certainly the party that wins that district at the governor's level is gonna win at the House of Delegates level.12:30.41Sam ShiraziAnd really in the trenches between, you know, one to 5%, that's when it's really gonna be dicey and the ticket splitting could make the difference So we'll just have to wait and see. Again, Democrats have an advantage at the House of Delegates level.12:45.75Sam ShiraziI think the problem the Republicans have is time is running out. And so Friday, obviously, is the start of early voting. I will do a podcast probably coming out Saturday morning where I will analyze all the early voting and just give you the background about what early voting will look like.13:02.37Sam ShiraziBut that's happening on Friday. And so people are going to go in there and vote. i mean, most of the people who vote early tend to be very highly engaged voters. So I think the Republicans are holding their fire. they're going to say, we don't want to waste our money right now when most people aren't paying attention. We don't have as much money as the Democrats. We need to hold. We need to hold.13:22.01Sam ShiraziAnd then at the end, When everyone starts tuning in that's when we can kind of dump our money and hopefully be able to make a difference. I think that the challenge with that is there's more early voting now traditionally than there has been in Virginia history.13:36.54Sam ShiraziSo, So the strategy of holding your fire till the end is certainly risky. And there is a risk that you are going to get defined because the other candidate is spending all this money. And so by the time your ads come up, it's not really going to be enough.13:50.43Sam ShiraziAnd frankly, when your ads go up, it's not like the Democrats are going to pull all their ads. So at that point, it's just going to be ad saturation and people just tune it out. So like even if you have some ads running at the end, I mean, most people are going to be so tuned out of it or the Democratic ads are going to kind of cancel out your ads.14:06.84Sam ShiraziThat at the end of the day, it just doesn't really matter how much you're spending at the end if you haven't been able to kind of keep up during the entire spending period.14:16.77Sam ShiraziAll right. Well, I think that is a lot on campaign finance. So we will a pause and... focus on early voting for the next podcast. So I appreciate everyone who's been listening along.14:30.58Sam Shirazithink early voting, it's almost here. It's really exciting. I'm excited to see actual votes being cast. And then obviously we're off to the races in terms of what's going to happen in a November. So thanks everyone for listening. This has been Federal Fallout and I'll join you next time. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com