Budget Boost, Oil Shock | SA's Two-Speed Week that Changed the Narrative

⚖️ Budget Boost: A Rare Win for Taxpayers 🇿🇦💰 This week kicked off with a surprisingly investor-friendly South African budget — and markets initially loved it. Key Changes: 📈 CGT annual exclusion: R40,000 → R50,000 🏠 Primary residence CGT exclusion: R2m → R3m 💼 Retirement contribution limit: R350k → R430k (or 27.5%) 🌍 Offshore SDA allowance: Doubled to R2m 🎁 Donations tax exemption: R100k → R150k 🧾 Tax-free savings annual limit: R36,000 → R46,000 🏢 VAT registration threshold: R1m → R2.3m After years of "tax by stealth," this budget offered real relief — especially for investors and small businesses. 💡 Lump Sum vs Monthly Tax-Free? Data from NinetyOne & Morningstar suggests: ✅ Lump sum at the start of the tax year typically outperforms. 📊 But in volatile markets, patience may offer better entry points. Simon has funded his tax-free — but hasn't deployed it yet 👀 💻 Dell Delivers 🚀 Strong results from Dell Technologies sent the share price soaring ~20%. Entry around $118 Now trading near $153 AI infrastructure demand driving upside Big capex spend from hyperscalers boosting the thesis US markets don't play gently — they reprice fast and aggressively. 🌍 Oil Shock: War & Market Volatility 🛢️🔥 The geopolitical narrative changed dramatically. Escalating conflict involving Iran has rattled global markets — with oil at the center. Key Developments: ⚠️ Reports of navigation threats in the Strait of Hormuz 🚢 Tankers rerouting / suspending activity 🛢️ Brent crude jumped from $72 → $83+ 💸 Rand weakened to 16.36 📉 JSE down over 4% About 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait. Any prolonged disruption: 🚗 Pushes fuel prices higher 📈 Risks inflation spikes 🏦 Puts rate cuts at risk (MPC meeting: 26 March) 🌍 Raises global recession concerns Possible Scenarios: Quick de-escalation → Oil settles $75–$80 Prolonged tension → Oil $90+ Full closure → Brent $100+, global recession risk South Africa imports ~70% of its crude — so oil + rand = inflation risk. 📌 Key message: Don't panic. Stay long-term focused. 🚗 Vehicle Sales: Still Surging 🚙📊 February 2026 vehicle sales surprised again: 🚘 Total sales: 53,000 (vs ~48,000 last year) 📈 Local sales up 11% 📉 Exports down 28% 📊 Year-to-date sales up nearly 10% Strong growth continues — particularly from Chinese brands gaining market share. Despite geopolitical risk, domestic demand remains resilient. 🤖 AI + Investing: Deep-Dive into SaaS 📈 Simon continues experimenting with AI tools like Claude & Perplexity for fundamental research. SaaS Sell-Off = Opportunity? Basket explored: Salesforce Adobe Intuit ServiceNow Workday Datadog Preferred picks: ✅ Salesforce ✅ Adobe ✅ Intuit AI-generated DCF models suggest potential upside between 40–75% (based on last week's pricing). Key insight: Replacing enterprise software isn't about code — it's about retraining millions of users. 🎯 Final Thoughts Markets are volatile. War introduces uncertainty. Oil is the key risk variable. But: 🧠 Stay rational ⏳ Stay long term 💰 Deploy capital thoughtfully 🚫 Don't panic If you've got time on your side — don't stress your portfolio. See you next week 👋 Simon Brown * I hold ungeared positions. All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order