Could AI revive real intelligence in investment banking?

Send us Fan Mail◆ How worrying is Section 899? ◆ A summer of toil for public sector issuers ◆ Seesawing curves in FIGThe bland outpourings of ChatGPT could not be further from the penetrating, critical advice big companies, governments and investors want from investment banks.But could one foster the other? That is the ideal banks are striving for with a plethora of projects to use artificial intelligence — not for the hard stuff, they say, but for the easy stuff.Automating tiresome work like compiling presentations could free up time — especially for junior bankers. But what are the juniors going to do with their free time?Sir Siegmund Warburg, founder of SG Warburg in 1946 and father of modern European investment banking, had a few ideas…One task human intelligence is struggling with is understanding Section 899 of President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. Clearly intended as a revenge tax to penalise investors in countries whose tax policies the US considers unfair, its scope of implementation is very unclear. So far, debt capital markets have paid little attention, but it could bite them hard.And this week in the market, supranational, sovereign and agency borrowers were packing in the funding. Could June be another January, stuffed with deals? And could January stretch into July? The curve balls Trump is hurling at the economy are leading to weird dynamics in the financial institution bond market, with the curves for covered bonds and senior debt undulating differently. Can issuers and investors make sense of it?