DHUnplugged #785: January Effect

LOVE HOSTILE TAKEOVERS? Upgrades all around the AI trade again… January Effect Defense and Oil Related – Let’s Go! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - CTP Cup - We have a winner! - Kitchen Cabinets rejoice! - Buffett is retired (kind of) - ALL TIME HIGHS - DJIA Leading so far in 2026 Markets - LOVE HOSTILE TAKEOVERS? - Upgrades all around the AI trade again... - January Effect - Defense and Oil Related! - Calling BS on Venezuela economic plans Doctor Copper - Copper surpassed $13,000 a ton for the first time due to a renewed rush to ship metal to the US. - The rally has been underpinned by the ongoing threat of import tariffs from President Donald Trump, causing US copper prices to trade at a premium to those on the London Metal Exchange. - The market has been driven by uncertainty over future US tariff policy, with analysts warning that the rest of the world could run short of copper due to low inventories outside the US. - Huge inventory build due to uncertainty Copper Chart Following up on that...Some Questions - Isn't the massive inventory build we are seeing due to uncertainly? - Lots bought before tariffs went into effect - then tariffs reduced... - Will there be a hangover from a the pull-forward like we have seen in the past? Best markets for 2025 Colombia: +80% South Korea (KOSPI): +76% Ghana: +79% Brazil (Bovespa): +34% Japan (Nikkei 225): +26% Europe STOXX 600: +19% China (Shanghai Composite): +18% U.S. S&P 500: +17% U.S. Nasdaq: +21% U.S. Dow Jones: +12% US Dollar - Basket USD is at 8 year LOW - Yen at key intervention level (again) - NO MANIPULATION HERE! -- -- Gold/Silver betting trend continues... - What happened to -> "a strong USD is in the best interests of the USA"? Monday Markets - For no apparent reason....(could it be the Venezuela news???) - Markets JUMPED - Oil and Defense stocks moved! - DJIA up ~ 600 Points ---These stocks were about 500 points of the 600: - GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc - CAT Caterpillar Inc - JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co - CVX Chevron Corp - V Visa Inc ---- GS is 1/2 the DJIA gains for 2026 Here we go... - Elon Musk's Grok is generating sexualized images of women and minors - users are taking pictures of others and telling Grok to "remove their clothes" or "put them in a thong bikini" - review of public requests sent to Grok over a single 10-minute-long period at midday U.S. Eastern Time last Friday tallied 102 attempts by X users to use Grok to digitally edit photographs of people so that they would appear to be wearing bikinis. - Politicians in France ask prosecutors to investigate; India demands answers - Experts have long warned Grok owner xAI about potential misuses of AI-generated content - Ministers in France have reported X to prosecutors and regulators over the disturbing images, saying in a statement on Friday the "sexual and sexist" content was "manifestly illegal." India's IT ministry said in a letter to X's local unit that the platform failed to prevent Grok's misuse by generating and circulating obscene and sexually explicit content. - Guardrails not very tight along the track - Surprised? TESLA - Sales awful - Stock holdingup - BYD Co. outsold Tesla Inc. in Europe’s two largest electric-vehicle markets last year as the Chinese automaker continues its global expansion. - BYD registered more than twice as many new vehicles in December as Tesla did in Germany, and outperformed Tesla in the UK with 51,422 registrations compared to Tesla’s 45,513. - BYD delivered 2.26 million EVs in 2025 to Tesla’s 1.64 million, and has made strong inroads in the UK where Chinese brands have been attracting consumers with cheaper sticker prices. - NVDA announced it is expanding autonomous driving sector INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/   Silver and Gold - As we predicted - Gold and silver prices fell Wednesday after exchange operator CME Group again hiked the margins on precious metal futures. - CME Group said in a statement Tuesday that the decision was made “as per the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.” - That caused some to sell positions to bring margin requirement in check - - Should be temporary until metals find their margin equilibrium Bitcoin - Starting the year off right - Up 7% in 2026 after a very poor 2025 - Crypto moving as well - Safe haven trade, catch up trade or who-knows-what-the-hell trade? January Effect - The January Effect is a market phenomenon where stock prices—especially small-cap stocks—tend to rise more in January than in other months. - Tax-loss selling in December: Investors often sell losing positions at year-end to offset capital gains for tax purposes. - Reinvestment in January: After the new year, they buy back stocks, creating upward pressure. - Bonus and cash inflows: Year-end bonuses and new investment allocations often hit the market in January. - Small-caps up almost 3% YTD Impressive - Investors fortunate enough to own Berkshire since 1965, when Buffett took over, realized a return of about 6,100,000%, far above the S&P 500's approximately 46,000% return including dividends. - Buffett is now officially retired - said to be one (or the) greatest investors of our time - Buffett, 95, will remain chairman and plans to keep going every day to Berkshire's office in Omaha, Nebraska, about 2 miles (3.2 km) east of his home, and help Abel. - They still have not completely figured out who will run the equity portfolio after Todd Combs left to join JPM Kitchen Cabinet Relief - Steep tariffs on upholstered furniture and kitchen cabinets and vanities have been delayed by the Trump administration. - It’s the latest roller coaster of Trump's tariff wars since he returned to office last year. - The administration is also scaling back on a steep tariff proposed on Italian pasta that would have put the rate at 107%. Let's talk Venezuela - The idea that the US is just going to come in an turn everything rosy is dumb - overly simplistic thesis --- Sets up a bad global potential for overthrowing governments - where does it stop - The idea that US companies are going to go in there and drill and US is going to reimburse for costs? --- The country is allied with Russia and China - not US (at this time) - This is reminiscent of when we opened the doors to Cuba - we opened it up and no one benefited. Maybe this time will be different. - BUT Venezuela owns the largest proven oil reserves in the world, holding approximately 303 billion barrels as of the end of 2024, which is nearly 18–19% of global reserves. So, that is something. VZ Oil Production Drug Price Hikes - Drugmakers plan to raise U.S. prices on at least 350 branded medications including vaccines against COVID, RSV and shingles and blockbuster cancer treatment Ibrance, even as the Trump administration pressures them for cuts - The number of price increases for 2026 is up from the same point last year, when drugmakers unveiled plans for raises on more than 250 drugs. The median of this year's price hikes is around 4% - in line with 2025. -Drugmakers also plan to cut the list prices on around nine drugs. That includes a more than 40% cut for Boehringer Ingelheim's diabetes drug Jardiance and three related treatments. Greenland - What are the odds????? (Prediction Markets are on it! https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/eventtrader/#/market-details?id=791099793%7C20290101%7C0%7C&detail=contract_details) - “Greenland belongs to its people. It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.” In Closing - The "AI NOT LESS PEOPLE WORKING" - Scam - “I would say that we’re actually not hiring fewer people,” AMDs Lisa Su told CNBC’s Jon Fortt on Tuesday from the CES conference in Las Vegas. “Frankly, we’re growing very significantly as a company, so we actually are hiring lots of people, but we’re hiring different people. We’re hiring people who are AI forward.” Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner)   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week’s stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter