DHUnplugged #796: Broken Trump Card

March is the WORST month for markets in a long time. International equities getting killed Dollar Up, Oil Up, Equities Down, Bonds Down The markets Trump Card no longer works… PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Trump may have played the wrong cards (Making up stories for markets) - Oil prices on the move - Monday highest close yet for this cycle ($105) - For Real ? End of War? Markets - WORST month in a long time - International equities getting killed - Dollar Up, Oil Up, Equities Down, Bonds Down Happy Passover and Happy Easter! - Made a brisket 2 ways! One Food item and then back to business - New trend at restaurants: " We do not use any seed oils - no, we use beef tallow..... - Reaction from crowd and recent FDA - Sunflower, Canola, Soybean (unsaturated is better....) Monday Morning Again - 7:30am Monday Morning - More BS for the markets - Talks going great... ---- Problem is that there was a severe threat that if nothing changes by next week- Iran is going to get pummeled ------Iran strikes several key targets in Middle east - Aluminum prices spike, oil prices moves higher.... - It does not look like Iran is too concerned. (Complacency or Strength?) - Unfortunate that markets are not reacting well - (Wolf?) - So we have until the day after Easter? Tuesday.... - Iran's State Media says Iran's President spoke with EU Council on the phone; says Iran is "prepared to end war" with guarantees against further attacks; EU Council President has confirmed this call - - Just moments after WTI hit $105... quickly came down to $102+/- - Everything turned higher - green across the board More Crazy Records - BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky added, "At 12:41 ET today, that NYSE TICK Index hit +2329, the highest on record back to 1993. This index measures the number of NYSE securities trading on an uptick minus those trading on a down tick at any given time of day. - For perspective, there are ~2400 stocks on the NYSE, which means nearly 100% of stocks traded on an uptick, simply unprecedented. - Prior high was 4/9/2025 when President Trump put a 90-day pause on tarrifs ---- More - S&P was up 9.5% that day and then sold off 6.5% over the next seven days Hormuz Tolls/Permits - Ships would have to pay for “safe passage” through the strait - Fees reported as high as $2 million per vessel for some tankers - Mandatory clearance and vetting by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - Escort through a narrow Iranian-controlled corridor, primarily near Larak Island - Only “non-hostile” vessels would be eligible—a term Iran defines politically Hedge Funds and Money Managers - Plans continue - equities coming out to cash - Hedges applied - H&C is doing the same thing for portfolios - plans for what/if and action ahead of further breakdown --- There is discussion that this sets up for a nice reversal (when/if) ceasefire ------- HOWEVER - damage has been done... More.... - Heavy short sales by hedge funds and disposals by systematic investors have increased the potential for a sharp swing higher for stocks in the event of a de-escalation in the Iran war. - Hedge funds have cut global equity holdings for a sixth straight week, driven by short sales, with net disposals across all major regions and short exposure in macro products in Europe reaching a 10-year high. - Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge among hedge funds, and the systematic community is running out of steam, with CTAs estimated to be buyers in every scenario over the next month. Capitulation of More To Come? GS Prime Book Market Metrics FRIENDLY REMINDER - It is Tax season - Tax returns due 4/15 - IRA deposits due by 4/15 Food Deal - Sysco Corp. is acquiring Jetro Restaurant Depot LLC for $29.1 billion including debt in a deal that will create one of the largest food-service groups in the US. - Jetro shareholders will receive $21.6 billion in cash and 91.5 million Sysco shares, with the company's existing management team staying in place. - The deal will give Sysco access to the higher-margin and growing cash-and-carry channel, with the combined company expected to have increased purchasing efficiencies and lower prices for customers. - This looks like a smart deal - gives Sysco new footprint and distribution Emerging Markets - According to Bloomberg: The Middle East war risks ending a run of net credit-rating upgrades across emerging markets and could trigger a new downgrade cycle as it fuels inflation and tightens financial conditions. - A prolonged Iran conflict could tilt the balance back toward downgrades, reversing the past three years when many emerging markets repaired balance sheets and implemented fiscal reforms. - The inflation shock and tighter financing conditions will weigh on all countries, according to S&P Global Ratings Director Ravi Bhatia, as higher oil prices boost revenues for exporters and strain importers. - The shift would mark a reversal from the past three years, when many emerging markets repaired balance sheets, implemented fiscal reforms and regained market access after the pandemic triggered widespread defaults and rating cuts. - A prolonged Iran conflict could now tilt the balance back toward downgrades. Oil Pries Factor - Oil prices closed at the highest levels in 3 year on Monday Market Metrics In Stupid News - Former world number one Tiger Woods was arrested on a charge of driving under the influence after his Land Rover rolled over on a two-lane road near his Jupiter Island home in Florida on Friday afternoon, the Martin County Sheriff's Office said. - Woods had been overtaking a work truck pulling a trailer at high speed when he clipped the back of it, causing his vehicle to roll onto its driver's side, Sheriff John Budensiek told a press conference. - Tiger crawled out of the passenger door before law enforcement officers arrived. A breathalyzer test at Martin County Jail returned no trace of alcohol, with investigators believing his impairment was drug or medication-related. - Woods charged with DUI, property damage and test refusal (Woods refused to submit to a urine test, an offense that carries a separate charge under Florida law. No injuries were reported to Woods or the driver of the other vehicle.) - Breathalyzer showed no alcohol; impairment believed drug-related - Woods released after spending eight hours in jail Private Credit - Now Blaming ... Private Credit - Private credit industry execs are blaming the industry for not explaining to retail about lock-ups and liquidity. - That is dumb - clearly easy to understand that you cannot get your money unless allowed by the investment firm - - Here is the fact - they would have never got $ from most retinal if they told them they could not get their money readily - so they glossed over it. USPS Surcharge - The U.S. Postal Service plans to impose its first-ever surcharge on packages to cover the rising cost of fuel and transportation, as the agency looks for ways to stabilize its finances. - The 8% surcharge will begin on April 26th Meta Glasses - Meta announced on Tuesday that it’s launching two Ray-Ban smart glasses that are designed for prescription wearers. - While many people already use Meta glasses with prescription lenses, the company says these new ones support nearly all prescriptions and are built to better serve people who rely on all-day eyewear. Wearables - Whoop, the fitness and health tracking wearable company, has closed a $575 million Series G funding round at a $10.1 billion valuation — nearly triple its last reported valuation of $3.6 billion — in a deal that brings together sovereign wealth funds, major health institutions, and some of the world’s most recognizable athletes. - The round was led by several VC groups, soverign wealth funds as well as THEFT - Cisco has suffered a cyberattack after threat actors used stolen credentials from the recent Trivy supply chain attack to breach its internal development environment and steal source code belonging to the company and its customers. - A source, who asked to remain anonymous, told BleepingComputer that Cisco's Unified Intelligence Center, CSIRT, and EOC teams contained the breach involving a malicious "GitHub Action plugin" from the recent Trivy compromise. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? 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