EP.004: Nvidia ($NVDA): As Good as it Gets

Welcome to Pitch The PM where host Doug Garber is joined by Gil Luria, Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson for a deep-dive on NVDA.— — — —📩 Subscribe to our newsletter for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs & Analysts. ⁠https://lnkd.in/ekkxjp6z— — — —In this episode of Pitch The PM, Doug and Gil candidly debate where Nvidia is in the GPU cycle, how Nvidia came to dominate the advanced chip market and what the road map looks like for advanced chip supply and demand. Gil outlines the current state of the industry for GPU chips that is in short supply and how the behavior of some key customers, like Microsoft, might be shifting to focus on returns over growth. The discussion goes into depth on hyperscaler capabilities to manufacture their own chips and their plans to reduce their dependence on Nvidia. Gil believes that Nvidia’s customer capex growth has reached its peak and this could also impact NVDA if other buyers cannot fill-in to support the street’s high expected growth.They also examine Nvidia’s valuation, competitive advantages and the shifting dynamics of AI hardware spending, breaking down how Wall Street could be overestimating future growth. Gil’s thesis centers on the idea that Nvidia’s hypergrowth is transitioning to modest growth and then forecasts a decline in 2026 CY revenue. Gil discusses how this could surprise the street and might lead to a lower valuation multiple. Please see the episode for D.A. Davidson disclosures. — — — —Gill Luria is the Head Technology Research for D.A Davidson, where he’s worked for the past 8 years. Previously he was the Director of Research at Wedbush. Gil worked as a consultant at Deloitte and a research associate at Sanford Bernstein. He earned a degree in economics from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and an MBA in Finance from Colombia Business School. — — — —Episode partner:Keep our content free and please consider supporting our sponsors. They are essential in helping us do our deep-dive research.💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use our link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/— — — —Chapters:00:00 – Introduction to Nvidia & DA Davidson01:45 – Gil Luria’s Background & Approach to Tech Research03:20 – How Nvidia Became the AI Dominator06:15 – Bull vs. Bear: The Core Debate on Nvidia’s Future11:10 – Hyperscaler AI Spending – Is CapEx Peaking?16:45 – Big Tech’s AI Chip Strategy – A Real Threat to Nvidia?22:30 – Hyperscaler Plans for 50% Internal Chip Usage.27:40 – Falling GPU Rental Prices – A Canary in the Coal Mine?32:20 – Nvidia’s Competitive Moat – Can CUDA & Networking Defend Its Lead?38:00 – China’s Role and Size as a Nvidia End User.43:10 – AI Investment Cycle: Boom, Bust, or a Plateau?48:45 – Valuation Insights – Can Nvidia Justify Its Price?54:30 – Gil’s Variant View – Street Low EPS Estimates for 2026 CY59:15 – Final Verdict: Is Nvidia As Good As It Gets?— — — —▶️ MORE EPISODES:BNED: 3x Return Potential Post Recap ⁠https://youtu.be/P6xy67DtqQ4?si=S7RyvfnPceYAmJGxZM: Growth Acceleration, A Catalyst ⁠https://youtu.be/D8THaDUBkTA?si=gKYXfFLL6nLUVnucPOOL: Reverse Engineering Berkshire’s POOL Investment: Buying a Great Company in a Lull ⁠https://youtu.be/190LgD6BdmQ?si=2rRej5lAdh4RLa0s⁠Follow Pitch The PM:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pitch-the-pmX: https://x.com/PitchThePMYoutube: https://www.youtube.com/@PitchThePM— — — —Not Investment Advice. For Educational Purposes. See disclaimers at PitchThePM.com