Episode 59: Waiting for the Market to Come Back is Not a Strategy

In this episode of the Texas Land Guys Podcast, brothers Tim and Tom Dosch break down what the Texas land market looks like as 2026 gets underway. With the year already off to a fast start, they share what they’re seeing on the ground in real-time deal flow and explain why simply “waiting for the market to come back” is often the most expensive decision landowners can make. Instead, they offer practical insight into how landowners and developers should be thinking about timing, pricing, and strategy right now.The conversation highlights a standout mixed-use opportunity they’re marketing in McKinney: a 30-acre site directly across from the city’s new City Hall, steps from the historic downtown square, and near the expanding McKinney National Airport, which is expected to begin commercial service in late 2026. Tim and Tom walk through what makes the site compelling, including strong walkability, flexible zoning that allows up to four or five stories, and a range of potential uses such as a hotel and conference center, multifamily, or a corporate campus.They also tackle the question sellers ask most often: “Is now the time to sell?” Their answer is grounded and direct. Rising holding costs, loan extensions, and pricing realities all matter, and good sites continue to attract serious capital. From the buyer side, they emphasize acting decisively on quality opportunities and share why discipline and determination continue to separate successful developers from the rest.They wrap with practical, experience-based advice, encouraging landowners and developers to test the market instead of guessing, stay realistic about value and timing, work with experienced buyers, and avoid letting emotion drive long-term holding decisions.Key TakeawaysWaiting is not neutral. Carrying costs, extensions, and lost momentum all compound over time.Capital availability matters more than buyer interest. Many buyers want to transact but cannot execute.Debt extensions reduce flexibility. The longer land is held under stressed debt, the narrower the exit options become.Conviction still closes deals. The strongest developers adapt, restructure, and push forward despite uncertainty.Pricing realism is essential. Sellers anchored to peak-market values risk missing today’s real opportunities.High-quality sites still trade. Location, zoning, and execution matter more than overall market sentiment.In This Episode:[00:00] Welcome to the Texas Land Guys podcast[00:36] Reflecting on the start of 2026[01:57] Exciting new listings in Dallas[02:14] The transformation of downtown McKinney[10:01] Challenges and opportunities in real estate deals[23:19] Navigating buyer requests and deal flexibility[24:24] Balancing price reductions and deal closure[28:16] Market dynamics and developer strategies[31:39] Regional market insights: Houston vs. Dallas[41:24] Opportunities in Austin's development market[43:57] Final thoughts and investment strategiesResources and LinksPodcastTexas Land Guys Podcasthttps://dmre.com/Tom Doschhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-dosch-37263b3b/https://dmre.com/https://ascentinv.com/https://100xharvest.org/Tim Doschhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-dosch-67a07899/https://dmre.com/https://ascentinv.com/https://100xharvest.org/