Inflation back in range, now for rate cuts (#550)

As expected Local CPI for June came in at 5.4%, lowest in twenty months and well within the 3%-6% target range from the South African Reserve Bank. Yes base effect as June last year was the first +7% inflation print of this cycle. 

When do we start talking rate cuts? Truthfully not yet, a pause would be nice eve as the gov always targets 4.5% not the range.

Simon Shares

• MPC is Thursday, I expect no raise and can we start talking about rate cuts yet?
• USDZAR currency forecasts from Goldman Sachs:
  • End 2024: 16.00
  • End 2025: 15.00
  • End 2026: 14.00
• Decent UK inflation as it dropped to 7.9% for June vs. expected 8.2%. But still highest in Europe. Italy 6.9%, Germany 6.4%, Netherlands 5.7%, Euro area 5.5%, France 4.5% & Spain 1.9%.
• Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) very poor update. "SA sales declined 0.3% (0.0% like-for-like)" while "internal selling price inflation" was 9.5%, so they went backwards at a fairly alarming rate
• ArcelorMittal South Africa (JSE code: ACL). Monday CFO quit after just two weeks and then Tuesday a horror update.
• Transnet selects a private port operator to run the container terminal in Durban.
• Koyfin 15% discount for first 2 years
• The Indian Nifty 50 at all time highs and we have an ETF for that.