Inflation Isn’t 3% — Here’s Why the Official Numbers Are Wrong

Inflation isn’t 3%. In this episode of Exploring Prosperity, I’m joined by Stefan Rust, CEO of Truflation, to explain what real-time inflation data is actually showing — and why the official CPI number may be missing what’s really happening to prices.See my essay about this interview here: We discuss how Truflation measures inflation daily across thousands of goods and services, how its methodology differs from CPI and PCE, and what the data reveals about tariffs, energy prices, food costs, and the U.S. dollar. We also explore whether inflation can be anticipated at all, how global inflation dynamics differ by country, and what investors, policymakers, and households should take away from real-time price data.If you’ve questioned whether inflation has really fallen to 3%, this conversation breaks down what the data says, why it differs from government statistics, and what matters most going forward.Topics covered:* Why inflation isn’t really 3%* Real-time inflation data vs CPI* How Truflation measures prices differently* Tariffs, energy prices, and inflation* Can inflation be forecast?* Global inflation trends * What inflation data means for markets and policyTimestamps:00:00 Impact of Tariffs on Inflation11:35 Understanding True Inflation Data20:02 Labor Statistics and Employment Index26:41 Innovations in Data and Trading30:41 Future Outlook on InflationThank you very much to our sponsors: Truflation: BUY Truflation products/services and save 10% using code BOBDEW10. Learn about what prices are actually doing by going to https://truflation.com/ Foundation: Protect your Bitcoin using the latest off-line technology with easy-to-use Passport. Their next product, Passport Prime will protect all passwords off-line with even-better technology. https://foundation.xyz/ River Financial: If not cold storage for your Bitcoin, I’d highly recommend River for buying and holding- River is engineered to protect your Bitcoin over the long run. Use this link for discounts: https://river.com/signup?r=T7GGAF7G This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit robertdewey3.substack.com/subscribe