Market Update: Supply Chain Turns South with Tim Ford and Dave Clothier

Tim Ford, Director:While there has been recent rain, many areas continue to experience a "green drought" with slow grass growth, particularly in the intensive grazing and dairy regions of Southern Victoria and South Australia.Despite some growth stimulated by summer rain, a dry autumn and delayed onset of winter have led to significant feed gaps and strong demand for hay, which has shifted industry dynamics.Historically, intensive dairy areas produced their own silage; however, this year has seen a substantial southward movement of hay from northern Victoria and Southern New South Wales, disrupting established supply chains.Reports indicate a disconnection between hay producers and consumers, possibly due to lost relationships and a general lack of knowledge on how to secure hay supplies, further complicated by changes in business ownership and succession planning.Feed Central has been facilitating the procurement of necessary feed since the 2002 drought, focusing on aligning the right product with customer needs through a detailed six-step process including listing, inspection, grading, testing, and delivery coordination.Dave Clothier, National Sales Manager:Lucerne prices are coming down slightly to stimulate the market as we head into the colder months.Sheds continue to empty in preparation for the new season, resulting in minimal carryover, which is great for filling with high-quality new season hay.Western Victoria and South Australia have been dry, affecting yields and leading to a big feed gap; recent rains are helping, but spring weather will be critical to watch.Hay is moving from northern and eastern Victoria into these drier areas, with some growers re-sowing due to delayed rain.In Southern Queensland, hay is already on the ground, with conversations happening on early harvests around mid to end of August in northern NSW; longer curing periods will potentially have an impact on quality.Stable hay pricing is anticipated, similar to last year, but dependent on factors including above-average rainfall and the potential for frosted crops affecting volumes.With a bumper grain harvest forecasted, we might see a softening in hay prices, impacting both the hay and export markets.