October 1st, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

Show notes — Oct 1, 2025 (FX, Commodities, Trade, Geopolitics)FX & central banksUSD softened as the U.S. government shutdown begins; EUR and GBP edged higher ahead of Eurozone flash HICP; USD/JPY slipped below 148 after a mixed BoJ Tankan that didn’t force further hawkish repricing.RBA held rates with a mildly hawkish tone on inflation risks; AUD’s intraday support limited by softer local manufacturing data and China’s Golden Week closure.U.S.–South Korea issued a joint FX-policy statement: no exchange-rate manipulation, interventions reserved for disorderly markets, and monthly sharing of intervention data.CommoditiesOPEC Secretariat rejected reports of a 500k bpd output increase by a subset of members; says ministers haven’t begun weekend meeting consultations.Gold printed another all-time high near USD 3,875/oz before easing on profit-taking; copper held above USD 10k/t with thin liquidity while China is shut.U.S. private inventories: crude draw, gasoline and distillate builds; separate reports flagged a fire at Glencore’s Lomas Bayas copper mine in Chile.Trade & tariffsWhite House detailed new measures on wood products: 10% tariff on softwood/timber/lumber effective Oct 14; EU/Japan wood categories capped at 15% within trade deals.Cabinet/furniture actions: 25% tariffs on vanities and kitchen cabinets begin Oct 14; cabinet tariffs to 50% and selected upholstered furniture to 30% on Jan 1 unless agreements are reached.Pharmaceutical push: administration tying lower prices and U.S. production to tariff/regulatory incentives (e.g., priority reviews); officials reiterated MFN-style pricing aims.EU trade chief said post-2026 steel safeguards using tariff-rate quotas are coming “very soon.”Taiwan reportedly rejected a U.S. request to produce half of its chips domestically in the U.S.; Japan said a large U.S-bound investment program will be managed to avoid FX disruption.GeopoliticsU.S. government shutdown confirmed after the Senate rejected the House CR; agencies executing contingency plans. Data risks include likely delays to Jobless Claims and NFP if the shutdown persists.Russia–Ukraine: fresh waves of missiles and drones; Kyiv flagged a critical power-supply situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant; IAEA engaging both sides to restore off-site power.Middle East: continued diplomacy around a U.S. ceasefire framework for Gaza; Yemen’s Houthis claimed a cruise-missile strike on a Dutch-flagged vessel.Policy commentary relevant to FXFed speakers highlighted a cautious approach to cuts, noted that policy remains only modestly restrictive, and flagged tariff-related inflation risks—keeping focus on labor-market slack and near-term data.What to watch nextEurozone & U.K. final manufacturing PMIs; Eurozone flash HICP.U.S. ADP and ISM manufacturing; Atlanta Fed GDP estimate.ECB and Fed speakers; BoC minutes.OPEC+ headlines ahead of the weekend meeting.Duration of the U.S. shutdown and any impact on this week’s U.S. data publication schedule.