October 7th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (Tue, 7 Oct 2025, US Open)Focus: FX, commodities, trade/tariffs, geopolitics Excluded: Equities, fixed income (unless tied to FX), cryptoFXUSD: Firm; follow-through from prior JPY/EUR selling.JPY: USD/JPY > 150; post-LDP outcome supports fiscal easing / patient BoJ; MoF reiterates vigilance on disorderly moves.EUR: Softer on French political uncertainty; Macron asks outgoing PM Lecornu to conduct stabilisation talks.GBP: Steady vs EUR, softer vs USD; quiet domestic data.NZD/AUD: NZD lags into Wednesday’s RBNZ (markets split between 25–50 bp cut).CommoditiesOil: Subdued; Russia’s Novak says OPEC+ didn’t discuss >137k bpd increase for Nov or hikes beyond Nov.Gold: Printed fresh ATH near $4,000/oz in APAC before easing.Metals/Energy policy: Copper steady after last week’s gains; Ukraine seeks more gas/LNG with G7; Slovakia–US agree on new nuclear plant.Trade, Tariffs & TechUS trucks: Japan reviewing US plan for 25% tariff on medium/heavy trucks from Nov 1.US–Canada: Trump–Carney meeting today; trade on agenda.Tech controls: FCC to vote this month on tighter curbs for Chinese equipment deemed security risks.GeopoliticsMiddle East (Gaza): Indirect Israel–Hamas talks described as positive; set to resume; Hamas says any deal must end the war and meet Palestinian demands.Russia–Ukraine: US decision on Tomahawk deliveries pending usage clarity; EU to restrict travel of Russian diplomats amid sabotage concerns.Venezuela: US halts diplomatic outreach.US Policy BackdropShutdown: Both Dem and GOP bills failed in Senate; agencies prepare for potential furlough layoffs.Watch next: USD vs JPY/EUR levels, gold near records, any OPEC+ follow-through, details on US truck tariffs and FCC actions, progress (or setbacks) in Gaza talks, and EU measures on Russia.