This ALWAYS Is What Happens Right Before Bitcoin EXPLODES | James Check

from BTC Sessions · host Ben Perrin

Mentor Sessions Ep. 038: James Check on 2025 Bitcoin Bear Market Paradox, Great Rotation Bullish Selling, Cycle-Breaking Outlook & 200K Price PotentialIs Bitcoin in a "modern bear market" up 7.8% YTD despite massive $290B old coin sell-offs? On-chain expert James Check from CheckOnChain reveals why 2025 price action defies expectations, with 63% supply cost basis above 95K creating a "top-heavy" plunge risk to 80s—yet silent institutions absorb billions in "bullish selling" for a great rotation slingshot. In this BTC Sessions interview, Check breaks down paradoxical sentiment (Google Trends at all-time lows), why the 4-year cycle is dead as Bitcoin transitions to macro asset, derivatives shift (options now dominate futures for volatility explosions), treasury mania "smoldering ruins," AI bubble black swan printing trillions, and bull case for 150K fair value exploding to 200K+ fast. Essential Bitcoin price analysis for 2025: Bear firepower fails, sellers evaporate—stack now or get screwed? Don't miss this deep dive on on-chain data, macro traps, and why bears are "really, really wrong" for max pain upside.Chapters:00:00 Teaser & Intro00:01:31 Bear Case Setup00:02:35 Monthly Expectations Defied00:03:11 UTXO Cost Basis Analysis00:04:17 Bullish Selling Phenomenon00:05:19 Bearish Sentiment Reasons00:07:08 Institutional Buyers & Demand00:09:03 Supply Side Indicators00:10:55 Great Rotation Explained00:12:18 IPO Moment Challenge00:17:54 Future Growth & Capital Inflows00:18:42 Bear Market Drawdown Risks00:21:28 Psychological Hurdles Post-100K00:25:24 New vs Old Bitcoiners Psychology00:29:30 Broader Macro View00:33:13 M2 Chart Dismissal00:38:55 States Jumping In00:42:02 Treasury Companies Mania00:51:28 Derivatives Market Rundown00:57:40 Black Swan Events & Bull Case01:12:13 Outro & PlugsAbout James Check:On-chain Bitcoin analyst, founder of CheckOnChain newsletter—delivering data-driven insights on supply, sentiment, and market structure.X.com: @_Checkmatey_CheckOnChain: checkonchain.comCheck previous ep with Tom Luongo: https://youtu.be/5oS4sop9t2Y💰 Supported by @BowValleyCU — Tired of big banks? Join Bow Valley Credit Union, run by freedom and sound money advocates, as Canada's only traditional institution directly integrating Bitcoin for seamless, no-hassle transfers, no rehypothecation, self-custody withdrawals, insurance, auditability, and ideal corporate balance sheet integration. If you or your business is in Alberta, switch today! 👉https://qrco.de/bgGaIQ😏 "Supported" by @PantiesBitcoin — Gentlemen, Panties for Bitcoin has you covered! A Bitcoiner brand for Bitcoiners, run by a HODLer family. Gift your lady top-quality underwear with BTC—surprise her with style & orange-pill her into the Bitcoin economy! 👉 https://qrco.de/bgEYRO⚡ POWERED by @Sazmining — the easiest way to mine Bitcoin and take control of your financial future. ⛏️You own the rig 🌍 It runs on clean energy 🔐 You get cheap Bitcoin BELOW Exchange Cost Start stacking wild sats today: 👉 https://qrco.de/bg8Jwq 📚 FREE Bitcoin Book Giveaway: New to Bitcoin? Get Magic Internet Money by Jesse Berger FREE! 👉 Click: bitcoinmentororange.com/magic-internet-money 💡BOOK Private Sessions with Bitcoin Mentor: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. 👉 Visit bitcoinmentor.io Follow Us on X:• BTC Sessions: @BTCsessions• Nathan: @theBTCmentor• Gary: @GaryLeeNYC#Bitcoin #JamesCheck #OnChainAnalysis #GreatRotation #BitcoinBullCase #DerivativesShift #TreasuryCompanies #AIBubble #BitcoinPrice2025 #BTCSessions #Crypto #BitcoinAnalysis

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