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Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, ladies and gentlemen, degenerates, gamblers, Indianapolis Colts fans, fans of the NFL's Shield, everybody in between, for and wide, welcome in to episode number 103 of the Talking Align podcast. And as always, thank you so much for taking a few moments out of your day to come and kick it with the crew on this beautiful Monday, August 16, 2021. Now before we dive into the Indianapolis Colts season preview, I know you saw the title. I won't waste much time, but please take a few moments to smash that subscribe button on whatever platform you are currently ingesting the TTL pod on.
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So you can consume that however and whenever you please. Ladies and gentlemen, beautiful gambling people. Be in between that doesn't or hasn't joined us on a show before. Welcome back to the talking the line podcast.
I am your humble host, Colton, cold 45, Soroka. And once again, thank you so much for choosing to stop by the TTL pod. Hang out with me in my partner today. Listen to some cults banter, information analysis, insights, everything in between.
We got plenty to talk about and let me bring in that aforementioned partner. He is a white Sox fan and hard his boys look to be in a very good spot headed in to the final few weeks of the MLB season. He's getting more than charged up and was excited to see Jordan love on the field for the first time this weekend in his green Bay gold and green, maybe yellow. Either way, you know the deal outside of that, ladies and gentlemen, you can see he's excited.
He's ready to talk some football. So let's bring him on in the man, the man, the media, Jen, a gambling legend himself, Mr. Riley, our mags, Magnuson. Parter.
How you doing over there today, pal? I mean, the green and gold is flying pretty well over in the Magnuson household, but I'm excited man. We got another fresh Monday with a solid team to talk about on like a couple of teams that we talked about last week, but still had a lot of fun talking about those teams. But I'm even more excited to talk about this team today because there's a lot of variables coming down with this team.
And you know, I think we've got a lot of opinions both sides here. I do believe you are correct on that, my friend. Into the week with the Texans last week. Just not fun to talk about.
But in this regard, going to be a lot of question marks, a lot of stuff we got to answer for the Colts and give you our hot takes and opinions on because obviously we know we'll talk about a little later, but big injury for Carson Wentz, huge injury for Quiddy Pay. Those are going to be some big, big, big keys to whether or not this Colts team has success early on this season. So we'll be sure to cover all of that. But yeah, solid weekend overall partner.
I know you had that little wedding action you went through up to late Geneva. We talked about solid up there. Oh, yeah. As always, as always, love to hear that myself.
Just, you know, got things back in order. Let the, let the body reset if you will. And, you know, got, as I always say, do something that your future self would thank you for. And definitely check the boxes on that this weekend.
So on today's show, my friends, we have plenty coming at you. But first things first, one more time. Today's team of the day, the Indianapolis Colts. Now as always, we'll be having the usual four segments today.
We got the full team breakdown, offense, defense and the overall outlook from the both of us. So we'll take a look at their coaching staff as well. Then we'll dive into the full schedule. Analyze that whole thing all 18 weeks or 17 plain weeks for them and kind of give you our predictions as far as their division games, their eight main games outside of that and in the three remaining games.
We'll also dive into a full season betting preview because you know this is a daily sports gambling show and we will be cashing grid iron tickets before you know it, my friends. So we'll dive deep into that. And we'll also talk some fantasy in our segment. We have dubbed start stash or pass.
Plenty to talk about in relation to Colts today. I'm sure we'll squeak in some additional NFL banter and nonsense here and there as we always do. Then we'll wrap things up. Sure, you'll have some solid information that we all need to know about the Colts.
We'll wrap it up a little additional banter and my motivation minutes for the day message today is on making today the day that you decide to pull the trigger. I'll let you mind spend on that for a little while, but stick around to the end of the show. If you need a little extra inspiration motivation on this Monday gets you jump started and ready for a beautiful week ahead. But for now, let's get things started with the first segment of the day.
Make sure everything's rocking and rolling. It sure is producer. Cult is now gone. It is host cult live on the show.
The second of the day has become a custom here on the TTL pot NFL special editions. The full team breakdown. Indianapolis Colts first thing we will start with is the offensive side of the ball. Then we'll work into the defense and the coaching staff.
First thing we will do as always talk about the key losses and additions offensively for the Colts going into 2021. Nothing crazy as far as losses here for the Colts. I'll kick things off on that end of the spectrum. They did let Anthony Costanzo go.
Actually didn't let him go. He did retire from the NFL. Shout out to Anthony. He was actually born and played high school football just about 10 minutes away from the TTL production studio.
So shout out Big Man Costanzo. Awesome career. We would love to see you play again. But hey, shout out Big career for Costanzo.
They let two quarterbacks go this year. Phillip Rivers and Jacoby Bursett. Obviously both of those guys. Rivers being the one that retired and then Bursett going to Miami.
Bursett obviously has had better years here and there, but he did find a little bit of success last year with Reich and or two years ago with Reich when O'Andrew Luck went out. So nothing bad to write home about that. They obviously told them to pack their bags and hit the road and then obviously Rivers retired. Then LaRavin Clark, Reich Tackle.
He's out of town. Chaz Green also right tackle and then Trey Burton, former Philadelphia Eagle and Chicago Bear. Now former Colt. He has hit the road and I do not know if a team has picked him up yet offhand.
I'm not sure about him yet. I didn't kind of see no major receiving losses, but as my partner will tell you, they really didn't pick up anybody. So they're banking heavily on the guys that they've had for the last few seasons. We'll talk all about that here in a minute.
But partner, if you could be so kind, hit us with those offensive editions going into 2021. All right. Well, you mentioned Jacoby Bursett hitting the road. It might be nice to have this time of the year with the Carson Wentz, their new edition who was presumably presumably the starter is going to be out potentially for a few weeks.
Maybe not. Maybe he could be ready to go, but you could be Bursett might be nice to have back in him up in this case. The big thing as far as the offensive editions are concerned is really offensive line depth. The one starter that they did add is Eric Fisher on the left side.
He could be starting the season on the injured list, however. So it is a little bit of a question as to when we are going to see him. When we do see him, he should help a lot. Aside from that, as I mentioned, is a lot of offensive line depth.
You have Sam Tevie on the left side. Chris Reed and Julian Davenport, all of these guys should be the number two or three spots there on the left tackle or left guard side. And then as far as the draft, they did not do anything top three picks as far as the offensive side of the ball. Fourth round, they picked up Kylan Granson tight end out of SMU.
Sam Elinger, sixth round QB out of Texas. Look where bad. Texas is back. I don't know.
I actually didn't see him the other day, but I did know he put some time in in their preseason game week one. He was slinging in the rock. That's kind of what I saw, but I just didn't see that game. Mike Stratton, straight chin, wide receiver seventh round, and then Will Freeze, offensive guard seventh round out of Penn State.
Actually, the only reason I know this is because of good morning football the other day. Can strike and talking about what a freaking last name with Michael Strahan. Having a career he had. Mike Strahan is who that is wide receiver.
So hey, who knows? We'll see. Six foot five is the young man. He has a little bit of workability into the Colts offense this year.
The Michael Strahan receivers, maybe quite potentially out of the seventh round. Who knows? The jury is out. Ladies and gentlemen, he heard it here first.
Nonetheless, let's get into some key 2020 numbers before we dive into all of the 2021 outlook here for the Colts. Now on offense, the Colts average 5.9 yards were played last year. They rushed the ball on 44.13% of their plays and passed on 55.87%. Completion percentage across the board mainly being Phil Riv was 66.56% on third downs.
They converted at a 40.65 clip and in the red zone, they converted at 56.92%. So obviously those third downs and the red zone needs to improve here. I think that that was just a little bit of mediocre quarterback play. I don't by any means want to say that Philip Rivers is a mediocre quarterback, but he'd seen better years when he came into Indianapolis and you know, they squeaked out a few wins here there, but we saw a lot more slip away than not.
Actually, I was really surprised to know that the Indianapolis Colts over the last three seasons are in the top five teams with first half leads at 29. Very, very dug on surprising to see that and see the record that they have year over year so far. So we'll see. Looking into 2021, are they going to improve upon that?
Are they going to be able to build those halftime leads and hold them securely? Right. I don't know. Jerry's still out.
Now getting into the offensive side of the ball, they have a solid offensive line. Smith, Glueinsky, Nelson, Kelly, and then Fisher is going to be the new left tackle, if you will, replacing Anthony Costanzo. And offensive line, it's going to need to be solid to be able to protect Carson's wins and give him a clean pocket. Now that is when Carson wins comes back.
We don't know if that's going to be by the start of the season or if it's going to be a few weeks into the season. It's looking more and more by the day that it's going to be a few weeks into the season. So we'll see if Ellen's gets the start or Ethan gets the start. It's kind of up in the air right now in Indianapolis.
Hopefully they don't have to worry about that question. It's real scary, but we'll talk about that a little bit more in depth here in a second. In the running back room, you got Jonathan Taylor looks like he's going to be the clear number one back and I think that is well deserving here in a sophomore season. Marla Mack behind him.
They also have behind those two guys. Naheem Hines who did have a pretty solid season last year and then also Jordan Wilkins who in yesterday's preseason game Wilkins lit it up. He was having a pretty solid game. He was actually the guy that got the Taunting penalty.
If you saw that, yeah, both those about 50 guys and then popped up, gave a nice little flex and got 15 yards on top of that. So we need to get on our soapbox about that quite yet. Here's my soapbox. Oh fuck the NFL Taunting penalties.
Yeah, no fun league. No fun league at all. Let's continue. With that being said, the tight end room looks like Jack Doyle's going to be number one overall here again this year.
They also have Mo Allie Cox coming back. So we'll see what kind of goes on there as far as competition wise. Obviously the tight end room in Indianapolis hasn't been one, at least from a fantasy perspective, from a general football perspective that isn't one you really need to write home about. It's kind of a question mark as who's actually going to get the receptions out of the backfield and the touchdowns in that position certain week to week.
And then last but certainly not least, wide receiver position after being hurt last year comes back. Paris Campbell looked pretty good yesterday, showed some flashes in the preseason game. They also brought back Michael Pittman. Obviously in his second year, I think we see some good stuff, the USC product from him in his second season.
Then obviously, T Y, T Y coming back, finally got his extension signed by the old horseshoes and he'll be coming back in. Then they got Zach Paskel back in them up and then Patman back in all those guys up. So not the strongest wide receiver room in the league. Obviously, you hate to say that with any team that has T Y Hilton as their number one back back a while ago, T Y would put up those yards.
And now I'm not saying he's bad by any means. I'm just the role that he is in now and how long he's been in the league's defense is know how to play him. And he's more of a decoy now at this time in his career. And it sucks for him because he used to put up those 20 30 40 fantasy point days.
I mean, I think he still has some fantasy value, but you definitely need a temper expectations until further notice until we see something from him. Now, before I kick it over to you, partner, my thoughts in general for this offense, it's all going to come down to Carson Wentz. When he's back, I think this backfield have plenty of success. They had plenty of success last year under Reich and for the last three seasons.
I don't think there's going to be any issue there. Jonathan Taylor, no sophomore slump in my mind. The wider receiver room. I think we see improvement there.
There's a few question marks. I hope Campbell can stay healthy. I hope Pippin can stay healthy. Hope T Y can stay healthy too.
They can stay healthy. I think we see some improvement. And then it just all comes back to Wentz for me. Do we see what we have the last few years in Philadelphia or is it going to be a complete rejuvenation like we saw in 2017 with the Philly, Philly Super Bowl run?
I don't know. I can't tell you. I can't call it either way right now. I got to see at least week one, two, and three.
But then again, I don't even know if that's going to tell me anything because that's what we'll get into in the schedule breakdown. They have one of the hardest starts to the season out of any team. So I really don't know in my mind. It all circles back to Carson Wentz.
And it's not good when everything that the main point that things are circling to is the biggest question. Right. That's my thoughts part of where you at before we rock a roll on over to the defensive side of the ball. You know, as far as Wentz is concerned, I'll kind of start there and work backwards compared to what you did there.
This is concerned. I had a lot of confidence when they initially made the move and honestly by the day and obviously with injury it was tenfold. I've kind of lost that confidence day in and day out. I don't know if it's just kind of buying back into him and kind of rewatching some of the stuff we saw from him in Philly.
But also I kind of mentioned with Fisher and obviously now with Quentin Nelson, this offensive line which is undoubtedly one of the strengths of this team. I don't know how healthy they're going to be, especially now at the beginning of the season. And then as we get into the rest of the schedule, it gets a little easier. So I think they might have a nice chance if they do start off slow to bounce back.
But you know, another part of the question for me is this receiver room. You mentioned it for sure. This was the one room that people wanted them to upgrade and they did absolutely nothing. And I have to feel like that part of that reason is that they have a lot of confidence in either Pittman or Campbell to be a breakout because I'm higher on Pittman than I am on Campbell.
Campbell might be a guy that could be an injury bug guy. I'm not sure because he's kind of had that there was first two seasons where as Pittman, he played 78% of their snaps last year. He was there almost every single game, almost every single play and he just really didn't break out. He's six foot four.
He used him in short yardage situations. So I think he could be more of a red zone target this year than he was last year. And I don't know that he breaks out into being the clear number one in this room. But I think he breaks out into being somewhat serviceable.
If not kind of knocking on the door, I've taken that number one spot. So I've got a lot of confidence in him. But then as I mentioned, that offensive line of health, I'm a little concerned with. And then I don't even have to talk too much about the running back room.
It's on Dottleley's solid, deep as hell. Even if something happens to one or two of these guys, they've got two other guys. So yeah, I like this offense. I don't love it.
But then as you mentioned, the elephant in the room is just quarterback play. And if we can get it, then this team could be really damn good. 150% and yeah, we're definitely on the same page as far as the running back room goes. And then your thoughts on the offensive line, I'm a little bit on the opposite side of the card on that he will.
They've been one of the most injured offensive lines season over season for the last about five years now. And I think we finally see some improvement upon that here. They're a little bit younger now. They're a little bit healed up, if you will.
I kind of looked a little bit more in depth. And I think that they definitely see some improvement there. And then much like you, I'm glad you mentioned that. It was a toss up for me between who's going to break out Campbell Pittman.
And we'll talk about it from fantasy as well. But Pittman would definitely be the one that I would lean to. I had him on my fantasy roster last year for the entire season. Plug and play guy here and there.
But I think we see some definite improvement. Like I said, a USC, he was a monster. So I think no sophomore slump once again here for another guy on this Indianapolis Colts offense to put a cherry on top of the offense, the rankings courtesy of SFA. Guys over there ranked this quarterback room as the 25th ranked unit in the league.
Obviously now it might even be worse with the question mark how fast Carson Wentz comes back. And then what do we actually see from Carson Wentz once he is full go? Then you have Easton and Ellinger. Not really sure what we see from either of those two guys in the NFL yet.
They were both laying in the ball around the yard yesterday. But hey, that's preseason week one. Offensive line ranked pretty high. Eighth in the league.
Definitely possible to crack the top five in my mind. If they can stay healthy, that's both on our opinions as well. Running back room just as high as we are fifth in the league. I think that they could definitely crack the top three.
Jonathan Taylor just needs to show a little bit of improvement. And a few minor areas, really nothing major at all. He showed flasters in the passing game in between the tackles outside of the tackles. There's no question in my mind with him.
And the depth is solid, solid, solid. This receiver room does leave a little bit to be desired per the guys over at SFA 27th ranked unit in the league. Now obviously they can improve upon that number severely. But with them not making any moves and this being exactly the offensive wide receiver call we saw last year, it's hard to not believe that we don't see the exact same production.
But as me and Riley both think, improvement in some of those guys in the room. I think someone's breaking up. I would have to re-someone. If it ain't Pittman, it could be Campbell.
It could be Campbell. Or maybe hey, TY comes on back from a couple. I don't want to even say down seasons, but he gets back to the season. He gets back to the season.
Why that we all know about. So there you go, offensive side of the ball. We'll talk about it even more in depth once we get to the fourth and final segment of the day. Starts to ask your pass.
All of our best fantasy advice, but let's rock on over to the defensive side of the ball, my friends. And this time Riley's going to kick things off with the defensive losses going into 2021 partner. Let us have it. Alright, so this defense lost a few more guys than you might expect.
Nobody major, nobody that you're going to be walking home crying about. But some guys that are solid, depth pieces and even started a handful of games for this Goldstein last year. Anthony Walker Jr., linebacker, started all 16 games for this team. He is on his way out.
He's in Cleveland now. Danico Audrey off the edge started 13 games. He had 7.5 sacks last year. Justin Houston also off the edge started 16 games.
He had 8 sacks last year. So three guys on the defense that started and played and made a solid impact for this team are on their way out. But as we've seen from this team, and as my partner will mention, they have a lot of trust in their roster and their talent development. So seems to be that they are not too concerned about these losses.
Other deeper depth guys, but guys that played a lot of time last year. George Odom, safety position played 16 games. Tae Von Wilson also safety 15 games and then Tremeont Smith at the defensive back position. Played at 10 games.
Did not start. However, like I said, an handful of guys that ate up a lot of minutes, played some decent minutes for this team. But they did that if you guys partner. What do we got here?
In my opinion, they were able to back fill those holes. Plenty of fine. And as you mentioned, their talent development is right next level. And then they also have Chris Ballard in the front office.
GM Ballard is one of the best GMs in the league in my opinion. He's able to pull out little trades or little free agency moves just when everybody least expecting. That's the move the Colts needed to make. He's able to bring in Isaac Rishel, interior defensive lineman.
Sean Davis, safety, Malik Jefferson, linebacker, and Andrew Brown, interior defensive lineman. Now in the draft, obviously everybody knows this deal. They got quit. He pay was an absolute monster in his last year in Michigan.
I think that he is going to have a very solid year. He's obviously up there on the rankings for defensive rookie of the year. We've already talked about that a few times on the show, but he also has that foot injury now too. He got the same five to 12 week diagnosis.
That's been what three weeks now, two weeks now for the other two guys on this team? Well, no, just since the Carson wins. Right, right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
It's been about two weeks now, I would say. So anywhere in there, we'll see if these guys make the start of the NFL regular season. I'm not sure if they will or not, but they definitely will be on the roster at some point in time. They also picked up at a Vanderbilt defensive in Dio, Dio Odettebo.
He is also a game record on the outside and then Sean Davis, safety out of Florida. So we're pretty defensive focused on defensive focus in the draft rather. And it looks like that's kind of what is going to be their focus here again this year. It looks like they're going to try and hang their hats on the defensive side of the ball as well as that running game.
So we'll dive deep into the defensive side of things here. Now, before we do some key 2020 numbers defensively for the Colts before we get into that full outlook on defense, they allowed opponents to average about 5.4 yards per play. Opponents completed their passes at 66.16% on third down opponents converted at a 41.51% clip. And in the red zone opponents converted at a 62.96% clip.
So overall, not terrible. This was obviously one of the better defenses in the league last year. They obviously have some guys that we'll talk about here in a minute that are some of the top guys at their position in the league. So I think we see a very similar performance to last season.
But before I give you all of my thoughts in general, let's talk just a quick bit about this starting lineup, but what appears to be will be on week one. They got to Ray on one side and then Quiddy Pay on the other. I'm not sure who's going to be starting in place. Quiddy Pay for the time being.
DeForest Buckner big scoop last year for them or two years ago now. He is an absolute game record on the inside. Everybody everybody knows his name in the league. No question.
And then opposite him, Lewis, interior defensive lineman as well. Then they have Okuriki. That's Billy, Bobby Okuriki. Obviously another solid linebacker for them.
Darius Leonard going to be another huge season for him in my opinion. This front seven in my mind is dominant as all hell. And I think that they show it this year. They're cornerbacks, secondary defensive backs.
If you thought I just said quarterback, I said cornerback. And defensive back, secondary Xavier Rhodes, Kenny Moore, and then Rock Yoss-in. All three guys just absolutely shut down corners of the best of the three, obviously being Rhodes. He was dominant as all hell last year.
And I think we see that from him once again here this year. And then last but so many not least, the deep ball boys. You got Willis and Blackman. Not the best seasons out of those two guys.
Last year the deep ball was a little bit of the downfall for the Colts. But I think they cleaned that up here going into 2021 now under the instruction of Marcus Brady. Or no, I'm sorry. Still under the instruction of Matt Eberfluis.
Yeah, yeah. Wrong side of ball. Marcus Brady is offensive coordinator. Now see, still learning everybody.
He is a new coach there, Marcus Brady. But Matt Eberfluis coming into his fourth season as well right alongside Reich. And I think that they have plenty of success defensively. I think the key is going to be getting pressure with this front seven.
Also being able to utilize Okuriki and Leonard in those kind of pushback zone looks. Will they'll be able to be on the line and then float back and make big plays. I think that's going to be huge. I also think the secondary is going to have to be dominant, dominant, dominant again.
I said a little bit ago, but the start of the season for these guys is absolutely brutal. They face some of the best wide receiver rooms in my opinion in the league right now. Seattle Rams, Titans, Ravens. Ravens okay, a little bit of a question mark, but still right there.
That's going to be a lot on their shoulders and limit these guys at the early start of the season. So I think that's going to be big. And then we're going to need to see some improvement in the deep secondary. They can't let the top get ripped off of their defense like they did last year.
Or they're going to be in those shootouts again in the second half. And they're going to let a lot of those games slip away again. So in my mind, that's the key for this defense. What do you think of going into 2021 part?
Yeah, I mean, I really like this defense. It's on paper. You would look at it and say, oh, this is a pretty good defense. But when they actually get there out there on the field, it is such a cohesive unit that works so well together.
And obviously you had the big names with Leonard into Forest Buckner. But aside from that, everyone really just knows what their job is. You mentioned that the safeties are going to be the unit that has to pick things up the most. I mentioned George Odom is out of town.
He's actually resigned. That was my fault. So he's still in the depth there. But aside from that, yeah, you know, I like these cornerbacks.
I don't love them. But like I said, this whole unit plays so damn well together. Leonard is going to be just rejuvenated after signing that big contract. And Ocaricki is a nice, nice compliment for him on the other side there.
And you know, adding a couple pieces they did on the interior. I really like this depth. You know, we both mentioned it. They just developed talent so damn well.
And the defensive side of the ball has really shown it the last few years. And I don't know why we would see anything different this year. But as you mentioned, they do play a lot of teams. They got some really scary weapons for them.
So I'm excited to see what this team does. But I've got a lot of faith in them, I'll be honest. I have a lot of faith in them as well. I think they're more than capable to get the job done.
Ooh, excuse me. Let's give you the key rankings defensively. Front seven or courtesy of the guys over at SFA. Can't leave that part out.
Front seven comes in ranked as the 15th unit in the league right now. Secondary ranked as the 16th unit. And then as we will kind of segue into here, there you guys know all of the defense. All of the coaching staff talked about him a few times now.
Frank Reich head coach coming in for his fourth official year. He's done some good things in Indianapolis needs to clean up the second half throwaways. Now, not as severe as the Atlanta Falcons are, honestly, by any stretch. But still not getting some of those games done.
Now, they still obviously made it to the playoffs last year. I think they still have the opportunity to do that. But we're not talking about that. We're talking about Frank Reich.
I think he's an excellent coach. I think he's done wonders in Indianapolis. And I think we see another successful season because of him coming out of Lucas Oil Stadium. That all being said, flubbed up a little bit a minute ago, told you that the defensive coordinator was this guy.
But he is the OC Marcus Brady. He was the former quarterback coach here in Indianapolis, gave him a little bit of a promotion. All Frank said, Hey, sit on down at the table with me. I need you as my right hand and we need you call in place.
And then Matt Eber Flus mentioned him just a little while ago also coming in for his fourth official season. I think we only continue to see improvements from him as well as a DC. I think across the board, this coaching staff is primed to have a huge season and allow the horse shoes to have a huge season. I don't know what you think, a partner, but this has got to be one of my favorite coaching staffs in the league.
And if they can put it together, it's going to be a fun season in India. Sure is, man. I'm really high in Frank Reich. I mean, you mentioned it the second half cleanups need to happen.
But you mentioned earlier, the top five over the last few years as far as first half leads. The other teams on that list, Ravens, Chiefs, Saints and Packers, to me, that really just stands out as it's a dominant quarterback that you have to have to close out some of these games consistently in the same fashion that these other teams do. So once again, the elephant in the room is going to be who is playing quarterback and how well? I don't know.
I can't answer either one. I have the idea right now. And you know, I liked what I saw yesterday in the first preseason game from the Colts. They obviously came back, won it courtesy of my former boy Eddie Panerro 21-18.
But I don't know. I don't know what we see from these guys. Well, really, it all comes back to the quarterback. It all comes back to who is going to be the quarterback and how is that quarterback going to perform?
When will we see Carson Wentz? And how good is Carson Wentz going to be? I can't answer either one of those questions quite yet. Maybe by the end of the show, I might have a little bit more insights.
But right now it is way too much of a question. My mind, let's keep this show moving on down the road. Ladies and gentlemen, second segment of the day, the full schedule breakdown. All right, as always, excuse me, first things first, let me dish out the entire schedule week by week for you guys.
And then we will give you some of our predictions, projections, where we see them landing, how we think they'll do in 2021 against these opponents. Week one, they are in Indy against the Seahawks and then in week two still at home at Lucas Oil against the Rams. Then they go on the road back to back in week three, four and five play the Titans, the Dolphins, and the Ravens. Week six, seven and eight, they come back home in week six to play the Texans.
So easy dub there in our mind, but they go all the way to the Bay Area and play the 49ers in week seven and then come back home to play the Titans again in week eight. So they get the Titans off of their schedule really early. They play the Jets in week nine in Lucas Oil and then welcome in to Lucas Oil once again, the Jags in week 10. So the first time they play the Jags is week 10, then they play the Bills in week 11 on the road in Buffalo.
Then they come back home to play the Buccaneers and then in week 13, they go on the road to the Texans. So then they wipe out the Texans off of their schedule. So that leaves a one more game against the Jags. By week is week 14, week 15.
Finally, after all of that nonsense, they come back home to Lucas Oil Stadium to play the New England Patriots. Then week 16 and 17, 16's on the road in Arizona and then 17's at home in or at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. And then they close out their season on the road in Jacksonville against Duval Trevor Lawrence and the rest of that electrifying team. In my mind, it is going to be a brutal start to the season for the Indianapolis Colts.
And we'll talk about it once we get into a little bit towards the end here, the second segment, the rest and prep inequalities. But the schedule makers didn't do the Colts any favors here either. We've been talking about it. We said it half a dozen times now, but the start of this season is going to loom extremely large in the Colts long-term outlook if they want to try and make the playoffs.
They have potential to go 0 and 5. They have potential to go 0 and 5, especially with the three game Road Street. That is brutal from week three to five Titans, Dolphins and Ravens. That in my mind, I don't want to face that as an NFL team.
I'm good. Give me anything else. I am good on that. So, I know in my mind, this is going to be a rough start.
I mean, hell through, you pepper in a few, but through week 12, it is going to be an absolute braggle stretch outside of the Jets, the Jags and the Texans. Everything else is going to be a shootout in my mind for the Colts. Yeah, no question, man. And not to mention who know.
I mean, optimistically, if their health works out and everyone's full goal by week one, then I'll probably feel a lot more optimistic about this team coming out of the gates, but I'm not super optimistic about that. Hell, opportunity is coming in the first few weeks of the season. So for that reason, I think it's going to be a struggle coming out of the gate, man. And like you said, they've got some wins peppered in here at some easy teams, and I think they can get themselves back on the right track, but it all comes down to, are they going to have this giant one in four, oh, and five type hold it?
They have to dig out if they don't have Carson Wentz, Quentin Nelson, or Eric Fisher. You know, it's a big, big question mark. And I don't know how confident I am. I think that they're going to have have that hole if those guys aren't there and aren't there to produce.
So, yikes. Well, let's get into some predictions. As things are starting to kind of unravel, not so great here as we talk about a little bit more. First things first, how the hell are they going to do in the division?
Well, the AFC South doesn't look incredibly stacked, but there was some serious line movement within the division yesterday. If you didn't see posted that on our Twitter page, you can go check that out. The Jags made a big move with Trevor Lawrence making his preseason debut and balling out for the most part. Took a couple of shots, but for the most part looked really well.
In my mind, I do believe that the Jags find a way to get a victory against them. I think that they split. What I don't know, maybe I'm drinking the Kool-Aid too early, but the Jags just look pretty dog on solid to me. They just look like they'll be able to actually fill the decent team this year.
I don't know how high I am on it, but I think maybe to close out the season, they could be looking past them in week 18 and just a little low. Hey, we're in Jacksonville, whatever. And she banged. We lost a game to lose or to close out our season.
Or hey, maybe we got that lost out of the way, at least before we start the playoffs, you know, kind of that thought. So one in one there, I think they get both against the Texans. And then I think they split with the Titans. I think if they split with the Titans, so in my mind, geez, I don't really like that, but they only go two and four in the division.
That would be the. No, you got to win the four and two. I was leaving out the Texans there. I was leaving out the Texans.
I was like, duh, duh. Yeah, so four and two within the AFC South. I'm going, I'm going to curse five and one. I think this is the best opportunity for them to rack up wins.
I think they split against the Titans, you know, having that week eight at home game against the Titans, I think is going to be one spot where they're going to need to try and dig out of a potential hole here. Don't have faith in them in Nashville in week three, but I think they'll have themselves straight back out and healthy by week eight. So I'll give them that one. And then I'm giving them two against the Texans easy.
And then I'm going both against the Jags. I like what you're saying because I do think this Jags team is going to be competitive and scrappy. I just think this defense is going to be a tough matchup for Trevor Lawrence and the young offense over there. So I'm going to wins and, you know, I guess depending on where they're standing on at the end of the season, I feel like they're going to need that week 18 game to potentially get themselves in the playoffs.
Maybe it matters for the actual division championship is concerned. So I'm going five and one out of the AFC South. All right. Well, you're you're high on these guys, but we'll see.
Like, kind of like, yeah, kind of like how you said, I mean, now we're never for them in the AFC South for two for me, five and one from X. Now, main eight games outside of the division, the first four are coming out of the AFC East. Hmm. I think they lose against the Bills.
Again, I don't, I think that's just going to be another upsetting day for them in that regard. I don't think they're going to get that playoff loss back. I think they get the win against the Jets. I don't.
And there's just so much. You're drinking the cool and I don't know, man. There's just so much question marks on the offensive side of the ball for this team. The colds now and it just, it, you could very well see some of these teams getting all given the victory over the Jets.
I'll give them the victory over the dolphins. I say they get the dolphins and then the Patriots is at home in week 15 off the by. So I say they get the win there too. Two and two in the AFC East coming from yours truly.
Okay. I am also going to and two and it's a definitely not beating the Bills in Buffalo this time around once again. Sure. Definitely giving the win week nine at home against the Jets once again.
I think they'll be straightened out by that point. And then I'm going split between the dolphins and Patriots. I'm not super confident in which one they're going to beat, but I think they do get one of them and lose the other one. You know, we four in Miami.
We mentioned it before Miami's home field advantage is a little underrated, but you know, I also don't hate their matchup that they would have against the Patriots as far as roster matchups go. So I think one way or the other, I'm giving them two wins out of the AFC East. All right. So I'm just there and then the remaining four, the NFC West one and one and three.
Okay. One and three for me. The only one they get is the Cardinals. Okay.
That's the only one they get because the other. Yeah. The other three are week one week two and then week seven against the 49ers and then they get the Cardinals all the way in week 16. Now that is on the road in the desert.
I love it. Fuck me. It could be on four. So going to my head one and three, they get to win against the Cardinals.
Fuck me. I might see you on four. I might see you on. You and I are as aligned as we've ever been on this fucking show, man.
Cause I am going to grant them one win because I find it hard to believe that they would go home for. It's the NFC West. It is the NFC West. It is ridiculous.
I'm giving them a quick two losses out of the gates. Like I said, I don't think they're going to be fully healthy and I love the Rams. I don't know how I feel about the Seahawks, but given the cold health, I am going to give that one to the Seahawks and then week seven, it appears that the Niners have their bi-week the week before if I'm looking at it correctly here. So and it's in San Francisco.
So I definitely don't like that one. And so I'm, you know, reluctantly giving them one win out of this division, but I honestly don't love the match up against the Cardinals. I could see that being a shoot out and if Carson wants his healthy that point and if he's playing well, then sure, but otherwise I'm giving him one and three, but I'm, you know, the cardinal victory in the desert. They go up four and four, but yeah, realistically, because I think they scratch one out some way or another.
Maybe they get the Seahawks week one, you know, like I said, I'm not with that health. I don't share. I don't know what the health. I just don't think so.
One in three, optimistically four remaining three games to make it a full 17 game schedule for the Colts here. They play the Ravens, the Raiders and the Buccaneers ain't no way in my mind. They're beating the Buccaneers. There's, I don't care if the Buccaneers are coming into Lucas oil or not is it is the hardest predicted game on their schedule in all 17.
So they're not getting that in Baltimore and week five to put a cap on it to put it also put the cap on their three game road trip. They ain't getting that one either. And at home to semi close out the season and week 17 against the Raiders, I'll give them that one. Yeah.
So they go one and two in the remaining three games that are not, not divisional or not the main non-divisional games. Okay. I will stick right there with the angle one and two. I have a little more confidence than you do in the game against the Bucks for whatever reason, not saying they're going to get it.
I kind of just like that matchup for the Colts for whatever reason, but I'm not going to give it to him. I think the Colts, or I think the Bucks offense, our Bucks entire team has just flat out better than the Colts. So I'm going one and two. I think they do handle the Raiders at home.
You know, last year they lost the Ravens. I believe it was 24-10. It was not a very good matchup for them. And I think we see something very similar.
So give me one and two once again and a rough, rough, rough start out of the gates for this team. The Bucks are fucking good. Yeah. The Bucks are good, dude.
So if you're basically with us eight and nine optimistically, right? That's what we're thinking. Maybe they squeaked out one here or there, but eight and nine. I think I'm out of lane at nine.
Nine and eight, eight and nine, whatever. But that's the problem. It is the problem. Because once upon a time ago, the total was set at 10 and it was a little bit more realistic.
And as we'll talk about here in the betting preview in just a few short moments, it is now at eight and a half. So either way, you're a little bit more optimistic with mags. Barely. Or you're a little less optimistic with me.
Barely. I don't know. Right. And that's a lot to talk about there.
Yeah, we'll get to it eventually. But not to mention it's not like it's a minus 120 plus 100. No, no, it's over eight and a half at minus 145. Yeah.
So maybe in Wishiwashi in the night and eight, I am absolutely not hammering in any minus 145 future. No, sir. All that being said, let me put a cap on the entire schedule breakdown. The couple of key things here wanted to wrap up and mention.
Courtesy of the guys over at the Sharful Ball Analysis breaking it down in individual segments for us. Appreciate the hell out of you guys through some of the key stats and trends that help make these NFL special edition successful. I know I shot you guys out all the time, but you are the shit. We can't tell you how much we appreciate you.
The Colts this year face three opponents that have over a week to prepare for them, but they also face three opponents that have less than a week to prepare for them. So pretty much negated there in that category. The Colts only have two rest disadvantages and four rest advantages. So not bad there.
However, they do play one short week road game and two games off of a road Sunday night or Monday night football game. So pretty brutal in that final category there for the Colts. Not ideal by the schedule makers in regards to that. They do play the Ravens on Monday night football, the 49ers on Sunday night football.
So those two big games that we were just talking about a little while ago are in prime time. Then they play the Jets on Thursday night football. Yippee Colts Jets only game to bet on Thursday. Woo hoo.
Thanks NFL. And then week 16 Christmas against the right or against the Cardinals in Arizona. So yikes, yikes, yikes, Colts, especially with the injuries, especially with everything going on. But I think they're just not stacking up in favor of Indianapolis now this season.
But fingers crossed for the boys would love to see Frank Reich and those fellas over there about 70 miles, yonder, 100. No, not 70 miles like 300 miles, yonder. I don't know either way. Best of luck over there is what I'm trying to say.
I fucking hope it goes for a job. We didn't go to school for a job. Hey, look at that land. I threw that in Atlanta just like that.
All right. Nonetheless, ladies and gentlemen, let's keep the train that is today's show. Steaming on down the tracks with the third segment of the day. We're a daily sports gambling show.
So it's time for the full betting preview. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, we'll dive deep into the weekly lines. But before we do, let's take a gander at how these Colts did in 2020. Come on with me as I inform you.
Now in 2020, they were favored by an average of four points and in 2021, they're favored by an average of 2.4 points. Now that number was published when Carson Wentz was healthy. So they could potentially be closer to a pick them or even a point, point and a half dog, not too certain, but something to think about there. They are favored in 12 games, dogs in four and a pick them against the box in week 12.
Now again, all of those numbers could have moved by this point, especially with the Carson Wentz injury news. Now he probably should be back by week 12 against the box and that interests me pretty heavily and we'll talk about that too, that that game is a pick them now it is played in Lucas oil stadium, but still against the box and a pick them without the Colts to play. I don't know. But as for 2020, the Colts were eight, seven and one ATS with an 11 and five straight up record eight, four and one as a favorite and 0 and three ATS as an underdog.
They were three and four ATS in Lucas oil, three and three ATS as a home favorite and one as a home dog. They were a lot better, which is really surprising because Lucas oil gets ruckus actually never mind. There were no fucking fans last year, so it doesn't matter. They should have been just as good as home as they were on the road, but they weren't.
They were five and three ATS on the road, five and one ATS as a road favorite and 0 and 2 ATS as a road dog. So overall did excellent on the road. I think we are going to see some regression back to the mean on that because we are going to have full NFL stadium for all 32 deep this season. We're fucking back.
We're fucking just had to do that. I cannot wait. We are officially 24 days away. Ladies and gentlemen, officially 24 days away.
But moving on into some key over under numbers for these goals from 2020. Yes, 2020 not 2021 from 2020 over under had an average line of 48. They come in this year's ticked up a little bit to 49.3, but once again, that was with Carson Winsful, healthy, ready to go. Probably has came down a little bit.
They were nine and seven over under last year in total in their games. They were five and three to the under at home, six and two to the over on the road, eight and seven to the over as a favorite and two and oh to the over as a dog. Those favorite and underdog splits also do include playoff games just so you're aware, but they wanted to give a little bit of extra backing there as well. So looks to me like the coach will be an over team this year.
I see them being a lot of shootouts with the schedule with the teams that they're playing. I think that they will probably be 60 even maybe close to 70% of the over this year is my hot take early prediction. I just see them being a lot of shootouts. But then again, we got to have a full healthy offense.
We got to have everything clicking like it is and we got to have 2017. Right can wins together. That's what we got to see here in 2021 last but certainly not least UT's IT's we all tease for teasers. Everybody loves to tease a couple of games a couple of spreads on a Sunday morning just to get a little extra juice.
Cult's worth a look in six, seven and 10 point teasers respectively in 2020. They held eight 12 and four 12 and four and 13 and three record overall in each of those categories. So definitely worth an ad much unlike the Texans from Friday. You don't have to avoid these boys.
No sir. If you want maybe one of those extra ones you're doing a little 10 10 point teaser you get some of the lower odds you need a few extra legs. Cult's are definitely worth an ad on there. I'll definitely be keen on on this season for those teasers.
So that all being said, there's some key trends stats over under ATS teasers. Everything from 2020. Let's talk 2021. First things first, just like it for the schedule, I'll go back through the weekly lines and then we'll pull out anything that kind of sticks out in our minds.
Kind of has any type of early value. Give you our way to early week one pick and then we'll dive deep into some of the additional side play season totals. All that chance. First things first.
What are these Colts coming in as? Alright week one they come in as three point favorites to Seattle and then as one and a half point favorites over the Rams. Now I'm guessing that both of those numbers have flippa Rooney. They sure have.
I was checking on it. It is plus two and a half against Seattle plus three against the Rams. Yeah, so both of those games in my mind right off the bat. I don't know if I'm going to be back in the course in those games, especially with the health issues.
Week three, again, you're going to have to maybe kind of use your best judgment. I do believe some of these lines are going to tick down, but this is just courtesy of the guys over at SFA at the time of publication. They come in as one and a half point favorites to Miami and then four point dogs on the road in Baltimore. They are favored by 11 and a half points against the Texans in week six.
Come in as four and a half point dogs and week seven against the 49ers. Week eight and nine, they are favored by three and a half points against Tennessee and eight and a half against the Jets. Come in favored as seven and a half point favorites against the Jags in week 10. Week 11, 12 and 13.
Man, this seems like a stretch and a half. 11, they come in as six point dogs on the road in Buffalo. 12, I told you, was a pick them against the Buccaneers. 13, seven point favorites on the road in Houston.
So getting Texas, Houston getting a little bit more love from the books at home, but not much only four points there. So nothing to write home about four and a half. Then you got the Patriots in week 15 after their by week and week 14 as five and a half point favorites. Very interesting there.