🐢 Turtle Talk Podcast: Episode 007 – Fractals, Expectancy, and Survival

Join Rich, Adam, and Jerry as they dive deep into the structures that shape systematic trend following. No guests this month — just the three of us tackling big themes, fresh charts, and audience questions that get right to the heart of Outlier Hunting. In this episode: 📊 Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – August review: classic trend bounces back, but what lies beneath the numbers? 📈 What’s Moved the Needle – JGBs, Copper (US & LME), Gold, Silver, and Live Cattle take center stage. 🔍 Turtle Tidbits – Five heavyweight topics: Are markets fractal and are outliers inevitable? Expectancy vs Path Dependence – what really matters for survival? The Cut Back Rule – Jerry explains why it’s essential. Loose Pants – Jerry’s metaphor for risk and flexibility. High-Vol Trend Following – unpacking Seeking Alpha’s case for why it might be the most valuable alternative investment. 💌 Shell Mail (Listener Q&A) – Audience questions on diversification sizing, lost decades in trend following, and quantifying fat-tailed events. 🎙️ Plus: Rich defends path dependence, Adam challenges mandate mixing, and Jerry sharpens his myth-busting sword. 📚 Special Announcement: Our new book The Aussie Turtles Trend Following Guide is being released next week! It’s the flagship collection of philosophy, process, and practice behind the Aussie Turtles® approach. Stay tuned @ https://www.aussieturtles.com/ for launch details. 🌐 Episode resources and reports discussed: Battle of the Trend Following Indexes – August 2025: https://www.aussieturtles.com/battle-of-the-trend-following-indexes-august-2025/ Fractals, Diversification and the Myth of Dilution: https://atstradingsolutions.com/fractals-diversification-and-the-myth-of-dilution/ Are Markets Fractal? The Case for Maximum Diversification: https://atstradingsolutions.com/are-markets-fractal-the-case-for-maximum-diversification/ Expectancy vs Survival: Why the Outlier Hunter Thinks Differently: https://atstradingsolutions.com/expectancy-vs-survival-why-the-outlier-hunter-thinks-differently/ Beyond Expectancy: Protecting the Path of the Outlier Hunter: https://atstradingsolutions.com/beyond-expectancy-protecting-the-path-of-the-outlier-hunter/ High-Vol Trend Following – Most Valuable Alternative Investment: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4823294-high-vol-trend-following-most-valuable-alternative-investment 📩 Got questions for the pod? Send them in: 🔗 https://www.aussieturtles.com/contact #TrendFollowing #TurtleTalk #SystematicTrading #AussieTurtles #OutlierHunter #Fractals #JerryParker #Expectancy #CTAperformance