War Is the Easy Part. What Happens After Iran’s Regime?

The United States and Israel are now at war with Iran. Airstrikes, missile exchanges, and regional escalation have reshaped the strategic landscape in a matter of days. But the larger question remains: What happens next inside Iran? In this follow-up conversation, Scott Kelly is joined again by Zolal Habibi, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), to examine how one major opposition movement views this moment—and what they believe comes after. This episode explores the practical, political, and strategic dimensions of regime change in real time. Whether war strengthens or weakens the Iranian regime internally The NCRI’s announcement of a provisional government Claims of resistance activity inside Iran The formation of a potential “Liberation Army” Opposition unity and tensions with the monarchist camp Kurdish autonomy vs. territorial integrity The risk of state collapse and “Libya scenarios” Whether foreign coordination is necessary—or dangerous What a post-regime transition would actually require Does war produce a rally-around-the-flag effect inside Iran? What would signal real regime fracture versus narrative momentum? Can armed opposition movements coordinate without fragmenting? What safeguards would prevent a cycle of revenge or state failure? What confidence can be offered that Iran would not become the next failed state? There are multiple competing Iranian opposition groups with different visions for Iran’s political future. Zolal Habibi represents one of those organizations. Invitations have been extended to other factions—including representatives from the monarchist camp—to present their perspectives in future episodes. The claims expressed in this conversation are those of the guest and her organization and may not be independently verifiable in real time. Regime change is often discussed as a headline. Much less often is it examined as a messy, structural process involving institutions, armed actors, coalition dynamics, and governance capacity. This episode focuses on those mechanics—not just the rhetoric.