Why all the panic? (# 439)

Simon Shares

• AdvTech* (JSE code: ADH) solid results in a tough market.
• Vivo Energy (JSE code: VVO) issued an update on Moroccan industry review and seems it's back to square one.
• Resilient (JSE code: RES) results not the horror show expected.
• Aveng (JSE code: AEG) wants to do another rights issue, again at 1.5c and raise R100m.
• Tencent solid results.
• Ever Given gets stuck in the Suez Canal.
• February local CPI at 2.9%.

* I hold ungeared positions.

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Why all the panic?

A small rise in US ten-year treasury yields and a little inflation and suddenly it is the end fo the world for markets.

Inflation is likely to move higher in the US as the stimulus money gets spent. This is different from the stimulus after 2008/9, which went to banks who hoarded it and stuck it into markets. This time money goes directly to consumers who'll send the money.

But the Federal Reserve is happy that structural inflation is not returning and a little inflation in the system isn't the end of the world.

But to listen to many experts here comes hyperinflation and the end of the world as high inflation = high rates and as such money moves into income funds rather than equity.

Further if one digs into Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) government spending is not the end of the world, certainly for the US government. Here's a fun one, to deal with inflation, raise taxes? In fact have an automatic process that removes congress, if inflation heads above say 3%, taxes go up 4%. Above 5% taxes increase 8% and so on.

But back to the panic, stop. Markets never go in a straight line and suddenly getting all bearish because of some selling is going to make sleeping ever again impossible.

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