Will they or won't they

Fed officials sought to impress upon markets the notion that it would take more than one apparently weaker inflation print and an impending recession to pause this US rate hiking cycle. Headlines like “Housing industry braces for a downturn, but investors are piling in” neatly summarise the tone of a market where both the rate cycle and resultant recession has been so well telegraphed. The fact that both are so well priced in by markets means that any incrementally better (or at least less bad) news can cause markets to rebound sharply with particularly beaten down stocks or sectors jumping by the most.