Winter is Coming for OpenAI

Brace yourselves, winter is coming for OpenAI - atleast, that's what we think. In this episode we look at OpenAI's recent massive funding round and ask "why would anyone want to fund a company that is set to lose net 5 billion USD for 2024?" We scrape through a whole lot of muck to find the meaningful signals in all this news, and there is a lot of it, so get ready!(00:00) - Intro (00:28) - Hot off the press (02:43) - Why listen? (06:07) - Why might VCs invest? (15:52) - What are people saying (23:10) - How *is* OpenAI making money? (28:18) - Is AI hype dying? (41:08) - Why might big companies invest? (48:47) - Concrete impacts of AI (52:37) - Outcome 1: OpenAI as a commodity (01:04:02) - Outcome 2: AGI (01:04:42) - Outcome 3: best plausible case (01:07:53) - Outcome 1*: many ways to bust (01:10:51) - Outcome 4+: shock factor (01:12:51) - What's the muck (01:21:17) - Extended outro LinksReuters article - OpenAI closes $6.6 billion funding haul with investment from Microsoft and NvidiaGoldman Sachs report - GenAI: Too Much Spend, Too Little BenefitApricitas Economics article - The AI Investment BoomDiscussion of "The AI Investment Boom" on YCombinatorState of AI in 13 ChartsFortune article - OpenAI sees $5 billion loss in 2024 and soaring sales as big ChatGPT fee hikes planned, report saysMore on AI Hype (Dying)Latent Space article - The Winds of AI WinterArticle by Gary Marcus - The Great AI Retrenchment has BegunTimmermanReport article - AI: If Not Now, When? No, Really - When?MIT News article - Who Will Benefit from AI?Washington Post article - The AI Hype bubble is deflating. Now comes the hard part.Andreesen Horowitz article - Why AI Will Save the WorldOther SourcesHuman-Centered Artificial Intelligence Foundation Model Transparency IndexCointelegraph article - Europe gathers global experts to draft ‘Code of Practice’ for AIReuters article - Microsoft's VP of GenAI research to join OpenAITwitter post from Tim Brooks on joining DeepMindEdward Zitron article - The Man Who Killed Google Search