Bedell Frazier Investment Counselling

Deal or no deal? The ceasefire is on or off? Or, as one of our Washington sources framed it: Ceasefire in Name Only. The situation is beyond confusing. The conflict in Iran has been head-spinning, and the price of Oil has reflected the volatile news flow. WTI fell below the $100 level. But it remains elevated in the mid $90s. The December contract is holding pretty firm just below $80. That suggests supplies should improve towards year-end. But that isn’t helping prices at the pump, which are north of $6 in many California cities. High prices continue to take a toll on the American Consumer. The price of Oil was $55 just before the conflict...

Unfazed: That pretty much sums up the Market’s response to the ongoing conflict with Iran. The price of crude surged back above $100 this week. The Market barely blinked. It’s been trying to move past the conflict. Politics and geopolitics definitely can influence price action. But more than anything else, it’s earnings that drive stock prices. We are smack dab in the middle of Q1 Earnings Season and this was the biggest week. The Tech Titans took the field. This, in addition to a Fed meeting, a Royal visit, new data for the U.S. Economy and a surprising OPEC departure. It was quite a week. In the face of so many issues, risks and events, the Stock Market remains all Bulled-up. Here’s another rapid rundown of what happened and why it matters...

Apple CEO Tim Cook announced he is stepping down. This was both a surprise and no surprise. The more you think about it, it makes perfect sense. Tim Cook has done a masterful job of managing the company for the last 15 years, after taking the reins from Steve Jobs...

The remarkable run this Spring continued as the Stock Market shook off the concerns surrounding the Middle East and hit fresh, all-time highs. The S&P surged in April as fast as it fell in March. These V-shaped moves have become quite familiar. Excesses get corrected quickly, clearing the decks for a swift recovery. It happened during Covid. That’s what went down last Spring around the tariff tantrum. That’s precisely what’s happened around the conflict in Iran. It goes from Bull to Bear, back to Bull in a flash. The Oil down, Stocks up tether is firmly in place. Right now, this Market is all Bulled up...

Volatility continues. The Stock Market this Spring has behaved like few times in decades. Prices have moved ferociously, in both directions. Oil up, Oil down. The price of Oil has been driving all things Market-related ever since the conflict in Iran began. The damage is palpable. But the Market seems to be looking past the now and onto what’s next. Of course, that is anything but clear. I’ll try to make some sense of it. The answer is found somewhere between the Middle East and the Dark Side of the Moon...

Correction remains the theme on Wall Street as the price of Oil is seemingly dictating all. WTI is back at $100. The price action has been pretty simple: Higher Oil has forced higher yields and lower stock prices. It has blanketed the Global Market. The Market often ignores geopolitics. Not this one. The military conflict in Iran is impossible to ignore. The impact is being felt wide and far...

It’s been a week since the United States and Israel launched the attack on Iran. Emotions are running high. No surprise, politics are running rampant too. It’s an unfortunate fact that politics seemingly dictate everything these days. I’m not getting into politics here. My goal is to focus on the facts as we understand them and try to anticipate where things are headed. As always, my focus is from a Market standpoint. There are plenty of political opinions out there to chew on. One thing is clear, America’s military prowess and intelligence agencies are second to none. That’s something that pretty much every American can agree upon...

Earnings Season is coming to an end. Corporate America has turned in their report cards for Q4, which closes the books on 2025. Over 95% of the S&P 500 companies have reported. The results have been good. In fact, they’ve been outstanding. The blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P index of the 500 largest American companies is 13.2%.  That marks the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. It’s been exceptional...

So much for a sleepy Friday. Those don’t seem to happen anymore. This week was eventful in many respects. I say this often, there’s plenty of material for me to cover on a weekly basis. Today was a particularly unique and eventful day. It moved Markets. It moved expectations. It moved moods. It went down like this:

A major milestone was reached on Wall Street; The Dow hit 50K. It didn’t stick. That’s not much of a surprise. The Market often back and fills after reaching new highs at big round numbers. 50K is definitely that. The achievement is significant in many ways. Stocks have rallied to start the year. And it’s been led by a new cast of characters. Tech is not one of them...

The Bulls got tested this week. The Bears were out for blood. It was like the Super Bowl for stocks on Wall Street. Heading into Friday, the Tech-heavy NAS was on track for its worst week since Obliteration Day back in April of ‘25. Silver lost over 1/3 of its value in the week. Bitcoin has been for sale all year, falling to levels last seen in 2024...

The price of Gold went parabolic. In fact, it’s been the case for pretty much all precious metals. The drivers are many: Ever-increasing geopolitical activity, sticky inflation, a weak Dollar and global institutions seeking alternatives to safe American assets. Gold went from $4k to $5K to $5500 seemingly in an instant...

Threats of more tariffs and taking Greenland knocked stocks downward to start the week. In fact, the 2% decliner on Tuesday was the worst day since October. Those losses reversed with word about a semblance of a deal. It’s still not clear what that means. Wall Street rejoiced, for a bit. Perhaps more accurately, it breathed a sigh of relief. Stocks slipped into the weekend mixed. Those all-time highs are not far from here. But there is some built-up, underlying angst out there. It’s very understandable. Issues tend to not go away easily...

What a week. It was quite eventful. That’s not new for the 2020s. It’s become the norm. But it was Market-moving. There’s plenty of innovation around. Robots took the stage. Controversy is always around.  Geopolitical activity is grabbing headlines, all the while economic activity continues. Q4 Earnings Season has begun. All this and much more in another rapid rundown...

Happy New Year! The first half of the 2020s is complete. We have officially entered the second quarter of this 21st century. Can you believe it? Time sure flies...

'Twas the Night before ChristmasAnd all throughout the block,Not a creature was stirringNot even on TikTok...

Price increases have slowed. Inflationary pressures are subsiding. The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported prices rose at a 2.7% rate compared to a year ago. That was cooler than the September report, which is the most recent. That came in at 3%. There was no October report due to the government shutdown. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, was up just 2.6%. That gave a serious jolt to stocks. The rally is back on...

It wasn’t Nvidia that saved the rally in November. It was the Fed. What was looking like a remote chance of a December rate cut, with a mere 30% probability 4 weeks ago, the central bank switched gears and lowered borrowing costs again this week. There has been much debate about this within the Fed’s Open Market Committee. They’re the ones who vote. There are twelve of them. The Fed Chair has been cautious and reluctant to cut more, as prices remain elevated. But the rate of inflation has definitely declined. It’s evident in Energy prices, Dairy prices, Lumber and other agricultural crops. They’ve come down. All other prices are just going up at a slower rate than the past couple of years. At least for now...

There was a mega deal announced Friday which will have a profound impact on the future of business, far beyond the media and entertainment space. As a former Turner guy, having worked at both CNN and Turner Sports, I couldn’t pass up digging into this deal this week. Netflix is trying to buy Warner Bros...

America is on the go again. The FAA expects air travel this Thanksgiving week to be the busiest in 15 years. There was a flood of last-minute bookings this past week, as it was previously projected to have a 3% decline compared to last year. The government re-opening likely played a big role. In total, 82 Million Americans are expected to travel 50 miles or more this Thanksgiving. The Holiday Season is upon us...

Back in February of 2024, just 22 eventful months ago, the Stock Market was teetering. The 14-month rally was maturing and being tested. The AI-Trade was being questioned. Investor sentiment was sour. Things were looking bleak. The Market was in need of a spark. Earnings Season was coming to a close. However, there was one big hitter left. It was Nvidia’s turn at the plate. The company knocked it out of the park. Investors celebrated. The AI-trade was back on. Nvidia saved the rally...

Market volatility was definitely the theme this week. After reaching fresh all-time highs for months, the Bull Market hit the brakes. The AI-trade stalled. Friday was a wild one. Stocks gapped down at the open, building off Thursday’s decline. The Volatility Index spiked, reflecting newfound fear. Weak hands were dumping stocks. Those are the ones generally late to the party. Strong handed investors were tight gripped and dip buyers jumped back in. It’s said that corrections send stocks back to their rightful owners...

I was in Denver this week for Schwab’s annual Impact conference. Meredith joined me. Firms from across the country converged on the Rockies to study trends, collaborate on common challenges and try to map out the future. No surprise, the advancement of Artificial Intelligence was a dominant theme...

October concluded with one of the most Market-moving weeks in memory. Between the Tech Titans earnings, a Fed rate cut and a Presidential summit between China and the U.S., there was a tidal wave of news for investors to ride. And the AI Bull kept charging ahead. The S&P just banked its 6th consecutive monthly gain as it continues to run in the face of any issue in its way. Here’s another rapid rundown...

The rally just keeps on keeping on. Wall Street keeps putting up big numbers. The S&P 500 reached 6800 Friday for the first time ever. The Dow cleared 47K. America’s Stock Market, as measured by the S&P, is now worth $57 Trillion. Friday’s trigger to new highs: Inflation is cooler than expected. This, according to the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. That was music for the Bulls. 2-Year Treasury yields immediately fell. Stocks rallied. Another rate cut seems guaranteed next week. The Market is assigning a 96.7% probability of just that...

Forget Football and Baseball for a minute. It is Earnings Season that kicked off this week. It’s that time again when Corporate America submits its report cards. Nearly 75% of the S&P 500 companies, measured by market cap, are scheduled to report in October. The Street expects earnings to increase +8.0% in Q3, compared to a year ago. That would be a solid clip should the estimates become fact. What’s more, revenue is expected to increase +6.3%. Estimates have increased since the quarter started in July. The Street had been looking for a 4.8% increase for Q3...

The final stretch is near. It’s been quite a year for investors. Everywhere you look, up and down Wall Street, you simply can’t escape the AI hype. Artificial Intelligence is expected to revolutionize our way of life, much like the Industrial Revolution in the 19th century and the advancement of the internet towards the end of the 20th. Those were pretty big. Of course that’s a complete understatement. They both changed the game forever. Some say AI will be even more transformative. That’s saying a lot...

We are nearing the end of September; Historically the worst for stocks. This year has certainly bucked that trend. The month started out with a bang as the S&P 500 extended the rally, going farther and faster. For months, stocks climbed that wall of worry. The dips kept getting bought. The trend is your friend, as they say. However, the trend has changed a bit. This week the rally stalled...

The Fed cut interest rates for the first time this year. No surprise, it was a virtual certainty heading into the meeting. This was the first rate cut in 9 months, after an extended period of pause to gauge the impacts of tariffs and overall inflation. Fed Chair Powell called it a “risk-management cut”. It’s not a catchy phrase. But it speaks to the indecisiveness at the central bank. Debate is natural. It’s healthy, when used with respect...

A fairly unusual thing occurred this week. A large Tech company reported a double-miss, yet the stock soared to levels previously unseen. Of course these days, nothing seems to surprise. Things are happening that have never happened before. AI has created Bull Market mania...

Hiring in America hit stall-speed in August. Just 22K jobs were created. That was a big miss from the 77K expected. The unemployment rate remains at 4.3%. A weakening labor market has been the driver for a potential Fed interest rate cut. That’s kept the Stock Market buoyant. Job openings fell back in July to the lowest in 10 months. The decline in available jobs was most pronounced in Health Care, Retail and Hospitality. Those last 2 industries are the most economically cyclical. Coming out of Covid, there was an abundance of jobs that could not be filled fast enough. The Health Care job drop, which had previously been a major source of new jobs this year, fell to the lowest level since 2021...

The AI race is upon us. It's been escalating ever since ChatGPT made its appearance in the Fall of 2022. Nvidia has been the undisputed leader in the race. Companies, both at home and abroad, have scrambled to get their hands on Nvidia's chips. Demand significantly outstrips supply. That sends prices higher. You remember that from Econ 101. That has propelled Nvidia's revenues and profits, which helps explain its stock performance. Earnings drive stock prices. Nvidia reported its Q2 earnings this week. Nvidia is the most valuable American company in history. It has a $4.5 Trillion value. 8% of S&P. It's a big deal...

Wyoming was the center of investor attention Friday. The Rocky Mountain valley is known as Jackson Hole. The town is simply Jackson. The region is known for its beauty and its endangered animals; Particularly Moose. Its local hockey team is the Jackson Hole Moose. Moose are large animals that have poor eyesight but a keen sense of sound and smell. Many savvy investors have such attributes too...

The calendar has turned to August and students from across the country are heading back to school. Summer is coming to a close. Transition continues...

Trade wars are picking up again. The 90-day truce on tariffs expires next week. Talks continued all week with varying degrees of urgency and speed. This week, the American President announced a new twist on tariffs. It's squarely directed at chips and digital devices. President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on semiconductors made overseas. But he said companies that have committed to building manufacturing facilities in the US will be exempt. The President did not specify when it would go into effect. The Market rallied on this news. Tech led the charge higher, as it has done all Summer...

This was another week of some serious Market-moving activity. We just knew it would be. On tap was a Fed meeting, a slew of earnings and more trade talks. The week would end with the July Jobs Report. There was a whole lot to chew on for investors, though many answers remain unknown. Volatility has definitely picked up, despite the S&P hitting new, all-time highs this week. But those gains turned to losses midday Thursday. They accelerated lower on Friday. This was no sleepy Summer session for investors. The reasons are many. Here’s another rapid rundown.

Alphabet reported earnings this week, kicking things off for the Tech Titans and providing an update on the state of AI. The company raised its planned investment spend for the year by $10 Billion, to $85 Billion. The AI race keeps accelerating...

This has been an impressive record run for the Stock Market. It continued to hit new, all-time highs in July. The fear from the trade wars and the April crash are deep in the rear-view mirror. America’s Economy has proven, time and again, its resiliency. And the Market has swiftly climbed that wall of worry. Consistent with 2025, there’s a ton going on. Here’s another rapid rundown...

Twelve score and nine years ago, in the Pennsylvania State House in Philadelphia, a Continental Congress representing 13 colonies declared its independence from Great Britain. The date was July 2nd, 1776. The following day, July 3rd, saw a lot of emotional language debated. The historic event was celebrated on the 4th with a final document draft. The Declaration of Independence was born...

To say the Stock Market has been resilient is a complete understatement. Investors have been hit with multiple shocks in the first half of 2025. They’ve ranged from 2 wars overseas, American bombs hitting Iran, a Chinese AI threat called DeepSeek and the April obliteration day around trade.  They all created serious bouts of volatility. But none of these events have succeeded in derailing the rally. The S&P 500 is back to all-time highs. And it’s come in the face of so many pressures and uncertainty. I get this question all the time; Why is the Market up so much? The Market can be confounding. Fear is often the trigger. It’s so true what they say: “The Stock Market climbs the wall of worry.” Of course, we never know for sure why the Market is up or down on any given day. Some days are more obvious than others. Here’s my sense of why the Market rallied this week, and recent weeks, hitting a new, all-time high...

I was chatting with a friend of mine this week about all of the issues going on around the world. I do that a lot. I like to learn how other people think. Gathering information and broad perspectives is a valuable tool. Our home state almost always comes up in conversation. California has become a bit of a lightning rod of late. People seem to either love it or hate it. Realistically, it’s kind of always been that way. I’m not going to get into the politics of California. That’s not my role. I have zero interest in that. But as a 5th generation Californian and an investment professional, I take pride in the significance of the Golden State.

Thursday night brought news that Israel attacked Iran. The price of Oil spiked 13% overnight. Stock futures sank.  Risks of an all-out war between these two adversaries are as high as they’ve ever been. There’s also risk that it drags the entire region into a major conflict. That risk continues into the weekend...

The Stock Market is not the Economy. The Economy is not the Stock Market. To be sure, there are definite overlapping influences, no question. But they are both completely separate entities. At times they move in tandem. Other times, they move in opposite directions. The Market is forward looking. It anticipates events and prices in those expectations in advance. Of course, there are events that are difficult if not impossible to predict. Covid is an example. September 11th is another. Presently, the Economy is showing signs of slowing while the Stock Market keeps rising back near all-time highs.  This is a period of disconnection between the two.

This was yet another wild and eventful week for the Market. Where to start? Well, we found out this: President Trump didn’t have the powers to impose those global tariffs. That, from the U.S. Court of International Trade which struck down the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The trio of judges on the panel found the President overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from U.S. trading partners. These include the 10% baseline tariffs, the 20% incremental tariff on China and the 25% tariffs on non-USMCA compliant imports from Mexico and Canada. No surprise, the Trump administration immediately filed an appeal, and the appeals court gave it a stay. That means for the next 10 days, everything remains in place. The tariffs will be charged. This case appears destined to land on the Supreme Court which could make this a long, drawn-out process. It’s yet another confusing fakeout for investors. That’s sort of the way this trade war has been since inception...

Memorial Day weekend is the unofficial kickoff to Summer in America. It’s full of graduations and barbecues. Many hit the beaches and the lakes, from coast to coast. However, it seems to have become increasingly easy for people to forget the real purpose of this special day. Memorial Day is the major American holiday observed on the last Monday of May. It is dedicated to honoring and remembering our brave men and women who made the ultimate sacrifice while serving in our nation’s armed forces.  Memorial Day brings both pride and sadness. It’s a day of honor. It’s a day of celebration. We mustn’t forget them. Remembering is understanding...

What a difference a month makes. The crash has been repaired. Well, sort of. The S&P 500 erased all of the losses. It’s now green for 2025. The 180 degree move from the White House on tariffs triggered the powerful rally. The Stock Market soared nearly as fast as it fell...

The Market churned this week, with a lot to digest from the FED to trade talks, we will jump right in. The de-escalation of the trade wars has been the big driver of stocks.  It’s been pretty clear; The Market has been at the mercy of the constant contradiction in trade headlines. Investors have been jerked around by the price action...

Changing direction is a normal course of action in life. It’s usually driven by new information obtained. Either the facts changed, or perhaps you were wrong. It’s an important function on the road to success. You can’t keep going in the wrong direction and the sooner you recognize it, the probability of better outcomes grows. Good strategies have a plan A and plan B. And here’s a fact: Most people don’t like to admit when they’re wrong, even though most of the time everyone knows it. Of course, some are better at this than others...

The American Economy has shown real signs of stalling. Appetites to spend have been curbed a bit as the Trade War activity persists. You can certainly see it reflected in the Stock Market. Looking more broadly, Corporate America and the American Consumer have been tightening their wallets. The Economy was already in slowdown. The massive tariffs created a shock...

I will start by saying, there is nothing normal about this environment. We entered the year knowing big changes were coming from the White House. When it comes to the massive debt, excess spending and trade, something had to be done. The status quo was simply unsustainable. That said, we certainly did not anticipate the velocity of activity coming from the Oval Office. Clearly the Market didn't either. Our thinking all along was that President Trump cared about the Stock Market, considering it a scorecard for his Presidency. That was certainly the case his first term. This second term has already proven so much different...