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Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen
by Ricochet
Each week Henry Olsen, columnist and senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, will talk about the presidential and congressional races with leading political journalists and analysts, people who are out in the field and won't give you media spin. Find out who's leading the pack and who's an also-ran, with Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen.Listen to Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen, along with more than 40 other original podcasts, at Ricochet.com. No paid subscription required.
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151
Beggars Can't Be Hoosiers
When the Trump administration launched its controversial mid-decade redistricting effort earlier this year, it was met not only with howls of outrage from Democrats but also with steadfast opposition from Republicans in Indiana. Now, the president and Governor Mike Braun are weighing in on the state senate primaries, endorsing challengers over the defectors. To take us through the twists and turns of this exceptional drama, Henry sits down with Brian Howey of State Affairs Pro Indiana. Plus, Henry dives into Florida's own GOP-friendly demography to consider whether Governor DeSantis will have better fortune in the map-making endeavor. And we examine an ad trifecta from the Democratic super PAC Priorities USA that may portend the future of targeted political messaging.
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150
What Really Matters
It's no secret that ordinary Americans are often puzzled by the fights animating partisans inside the Beltway. A question emerges, however: What would our representatives talk about if they thought more like the people who elected them? Today, Henry sits down with Tim Goeglein of Focus on the Family to discuss his new book, What Really Matters: Restoring a Legacy of Faith, Freedom, and Family.Plus, Henry breaks down how the economic fallout from the war with Iran is weighing down Trump's approval and the chances for Republican congressional hopefuls. And stay tuned until the end for a closer look at two clever attack ads—one aimed at Thomas Massie and another with sights on Sherrod Brown.
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149
Politics Post 10/7: Whither America’s Jews?
In the two-and-a-half years since the October 7th attacks, political observers have witnessed a substantial change in American sentiment toward Israel. Josh Kraushaar, editor-in-chief of Jewish Insider, joins Henry to consider the unsettling development and the implications of the breakdown in bipartisan support for our beleaguered ally. Plus: Returned from Hungary, Henry has a few observations that might be material to President Trump as his approval rating sags. And we take a look at a pair of dueling spots from the CA-40 primary to highlight the dominant theme of 2026 Republican advertising.
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148
Breaking Fidesz
Henry's in Hungary this week, calling in from Budapest to detail the mood around the Danube ahead of an election that's drawing unprecedented attention from the rest of the West. Tune in to get up to speed on Viktor Orbán, the longtime leader of the governing Fidesz Party, and his frenzied race against Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz member who now leads the suddenly invigorated Tisza Party.
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147
States in Play
Given the emphasis on national elections in our hyper-partisan era, one might forgive young people their ignorance about the workings of our many-layered federal system. But this week's guest, Chaz Nuttycombe, isn't your typical youth. He joins Henry to discuss his election site, State Navigate, which brings exceptional election analysis to the granular level. Plus, Henry looks at the presidential approval and generic ballot numbers from April 2018, and...let's just say it's time for a serious chat. We also examine ads from two cunning MAGA Republicans in Kentucky, exploring how they imply close ties to the president (who hasn't endorsed either of them).
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146
A Labor of Love
Some follow elections because they're in the business, others out of enthusiasm for the whole democracy thing, and if you've been around long enough, you can appreciate how much easier it is to track the races that matter—big and small, all over the world. One resource that's upped the ante for right-leaning political data fanatics is RRH Elections, and Henry sits down with two of RRH's contributors to hear how and why they built this top-notch site.Plus, Trump's approval ratings have hit a new low for this term. Tune in to hear what's driving the latest dip and what it could mean for the midterms. Stay until the end to hear Henry's review of three noteworthy ads from the Democratic camp.
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145
Right as Rainey
Thanks to the ballooning interest in political polling over the last few decades, Americans can closely track daily changes in matters like the president's approval rating. But it is the rare outfit like the Rainey Center that digs beyond basic questions to provide a substantive survey of American sentiments. This week, Henry sits down with Russ Walker, Rainey's Vice President of Policy, to discuss their recent polling reports on attitudes about affordability and the American Dream, immigration enforcement, and artificial intelligence. Plus, Henry breaks down the establishment Democrats' victory over restless progressives in Chicagoland, along with responses to this year's many foreign policy adventures. Lastly, we look at a couple of splendidly creative Republican ads.
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144
Land of Lincoln is Lit
In one-party states, turnover is rare. So when Dick Durbin gives up the Senate seat he's held since 1997, we'd expect some movement. And, wow oh wow, are ambitious Illinis on the move! To introduce us to the ensemble casts crowding up key races, Henry sits down with Cook Political Report's Erin Covey. Henry also explains the Iron Law of Primaries and digs further into early findings on public attitudes about the war in Iran. Plus, we have competing ads from the Illinois Senate race, along with an attack ad against Thomas Massie that indicates midterm party priorities. (And we're flagging an innovative ad featuring Bobby Rush that uses artificial intelligence to boost his endorsement of Jesse Jackson Jr.)
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143
It's Primary Season!
The first primaries for the 2026 midterms came last week, and Henry's flying solo to survey the results. Tune in for analysis on James Talarico's victory over TX-30 Rep. Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic Senate nomination; incumbent John Cornyn's top-finish against Ken Paxton in the runoff-bound Republican bid; House seats in the Lone Star State and North Carolina; along with thoughts on President Trump's recent approval ratings bump and polling on condition-based sentiments about the sudden onset of war in the Middle East. Plus, this week's dueling ads provide a contrast in style and sensibility that overshadows even the partisan divide.
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142
Texas: It’s Like a Whole Different Country
Voters in Texas will cast ballots for aspiring nominees next Tuesday, so Gromer Jeffers of The Dallas Morning News returns to Beyond the Polls for a close look at the Lone Star State's key races: From James Talarico's attempt to catch Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic Senate nomination, to the seemingly runoff-bound duel between Ken Paxton and incumbent John Cornyn; and let's not forget some of the hotshots fighting for House seats: Brandon Harerra gunning for scandal-ridden Tony Gonzalez in TX-23 and Colin Alred making a go for familiar territory in the newly-redrawn TX-33.Henry draws our attention abroad this week. Another opening for ReformUK in the Gorton and Denton by-election, along with positive polling for Australia's One Nation Party, reminds us that conservative-populism is a global phenomenon. Plus, there are bold ads and then there are jaw-droppers. Juliana Stratton's profanity-laced spot is sure to get her some attention as she tries to take Dick Durbin's seat in the US Senate.
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141
Galluping Onward and Away
Now that we're back into the campaign swing, Beyond the Polls is grooving into familiar rhythms. That means we've got a weekly rant, a great guest, and an ad or two worth diving into. This week, Ryan Girdusky, host of "It's a Numbers Game," joins Henry to discuss how the GOP is only just finding its footing a decade into its shakeup. Plus, Henry gives an update on Trump's approval rating, salutes Gallup for its many years of tracking that metric, and takes a look at a couple of bold primary spots: one out of the Texas Senate primary, the other from Illinois-8.And take a look at Henry's new series, Conservative Crossroads, where he moderates debates between representatives of the American Right's competing factions.
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140
Voting With Their Feet
You may recall the recent brouhaha over mid-decadal redistricting and the hand-wringing over blatantly partisan gerrymandering. But it isn't only cynical insiders who determine the balance of our House of Representatives; the American people play their part when they make long-distance moves. To talk all things reapportionment, Henry is joined again by Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball. Plus, Henry's got a trio of ads centered on the Democratic primary for John Cornyn's contested Senate seat.
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139
Kat’s Out of the Bag?
It's rant time! The president's approval numbers are looking awfully similar to those in February of Trump's first term, and that depletion of political capital since Inauguration Day 2025 ought to make Republicans more than a little nervous. Henry breaks down public opinion polling on the hot-button issues in the headlines, along with an analysis of self-described MAGA and non-MAGA voters within the GOP. He also takes a look at the astounding fundraising numbers that midterm hopefuls are walking around with these days.Plus, progressive influencer Kat Abughazaleh has her eye on the Illinois-9 House seat, and she has a couple of new ads out that are sure to earn the attention of would-be constituents.
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138
Loaded Field in the Land of Lincoln
In safe and many-mandered Illinois, Democratic primary elections are where the action is. And when an abiding figure like Dick Durbin announces he's giving up his US Senate seat, you can expect an eventful season. To take a close look at the flurry of ambitious hopefuls in that race, along with the ensemble-sized casts running in US House districts 2, 7, and 9, Henry sits down with Greg Bishop, Illinois editor at The Center Square. Stay tuned til the end for breakdowns of subtle, yet effective ads from Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy and New Jersey 11 hopeful Brendan Gill.
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137
Lone Star State Standoffs
It's been said that there's no place like Texas, and this year's Senate primaries seem to confirm the suspicion. We've got a cast of characters that includes incumbent John Cornyn up against the likes of AG Ken Paxton and TX-38's Wesley Hunt on the one side, and a couple of young challengers like Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico hoping to shake things up for Democrats. To cover these big, bold, brash races and some of the 14 open House primaries, Henry sits down with Gromer Jeffers of The Dallas Morning News. Plus, Henry takes a close look at a few ads coming out of the race for Mikie Sherrill's old seat, New Jersey 11.
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136
First Shots at the Start of Campaign Season
With an election year upon us, it's time to brace yourselves for candidates making their way onto your television, tablet and smartphone screens with messages catered to inspire and outrage you, the coveted primary voter. This means Henry is back with the Ad of the Week, this time taking a close look at Illinois' Senate frontrunner Raja Krishnamoorthi, the Democrat looking to replace soon-to-be-retired Dick Durbin. For contrast, we head south to Texas, where Chip Roy aims to leverage his name recognition in a bid to be the Lone Star State's next Attorney General.And in light of Mary Peltola's announcement that she'll challenge Dan Sullivan for his Senate seat, Henry takes us out with a rant about the latest in the Democratic Party's gambit to retake the upper chamber.
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135
Trende Setting at the Top of the Year
We're finally just 10 months away from the 2026 midterms everyone's been on about since Trump returned to office! So to get us off to a good start, Henry sits down again with RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende. The duo considers the political waves that may ripple out from two potentially seismic Supreme Court decisions: Callais v. Louisiana and National Republican Senatorial Committee v. FEC; they search for precision in assessing the president's needed approval rating among registered voters to keep the House; and they move over to the ostensibly safe Senate to determine the merits of Democrats' claim that their top-billed candidates can triumph over untested Rs trying to hold their party's home turf.
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134
Grievances of the Season
It's time for the annual Beyond the Polls Festivus episode! That's right, before you immerse yourself entirely into the holiday spirit, join Henry for one last rant of 2025. On his naughty list you'll find pollsters with dodgy models; an unrestrained Mr. President, who's back to tweeting and ugly truthing his way into unpopularity; and who can forget the centrist Democrats? Or, wait...how could we not forget them when they fail to deliver results? But it ain't all bad! Stay tuned to the end for credit given to this year's great feats of strength, shown both by the progressive base over their own party and DJT's TKO of MTG.
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133
Resigners, Retirees, and a Roundup from Rocky Top
One week out from Thanksgiving, Henry's back in a mood to rant! He starts out in Tennessee to bring some clarity to the mixed messages you may be receiving from analyses of the special election. Next, he looks at how the economy and the shutdown may be weighing down Trump's approval rating, and considers how the dealmaker-in-chief could get his groove back. And finally, he takes a look at Marjorie Taylor Greene's decision to resign, considering how this and other coming retirements will complicate the lives of partisan leaders who have to worry about not only their opponents in Congress but also challenges from in-party activists.
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132
A Primary Concern
American politics is so full of dazzling spectacles — campaigns and rallies, gotcha questions and scandals — that it's often lost on even knowledgeable spectators how much process matters in turning a candidate into a nominee. The Democratic National Committee is thinking along these lines as 2028 approaches, as evidenced by the Rules and Bylaws Committee's October resolution to consider changes to its nominating calendar. Longstanding member and Brookings fellow Elaine Kamarck returns to the show to take us to primary school, explaining why the process has worked as it has and what might be in store for the party going forward.
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131
To Win or Not to Win: Is that the Question?
One consolation of defeat is that it provides an opportunity to adapt to reality. Victors, on the other hand, tend to get lost in the high. Just a week before the Democratic Party's landslide last Tuesday, Simon Bazelon released the "Deciding to Win" report in the hopes of persuading liberal elites that they're alienating moderates within their traditional ranks. While the 70-page fact sheet has not been especially well-received on Bluesky, Simon gets a warm welcome from Henry, friend of political data analysts all. The duo discusses the party's liberal slide since 2012 and what the "rising American electorate" thinks of it. Tune in for a detailed chat on winning elections in a country where policy trumps personality.
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130
About Tuesday Night...
The autopsy is in: Republicans were slaughtered. Henry's on a rant this week, and he's brought his scalpel to supply surgical analysis of the election results for the statewide races in Virginia and New Jersey, the mayoral melee in New York City, and even smaller items like the redistricting proposition in California. Henry surveys the big night for Democrats, revealing the extent to which it bodes well for the party looking to take back a federal branch or two in the coming years. Tune in to understand what Tuesday's route means for those who bleed dark blue or bright red, along with those who lean more lightly.
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129
Swingin' Virginia
They say "Virginia is for Lovers," but modest observers would hardly fail to notice that the state has developed a reputation for regularized breaks with whichever party is running things in nearby Washington, D.C. Old Dominion residents Henry and J. Miles Coleman of UVA's Center for Politics discuss the Republicans' chances of holding on in an election made wild by an especially surprising October. Plus, the two look North for a view of the face-off between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli; and stay tuned to the end for a couple of obscure races to keep an eye on. Happy Election Day, everybody!
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128
A New York State of Mind
Barring an unfathomable election day surprise, the thirty-four-year-old Zohran Mamdani will be moving into New York City's Gracie Mansion in January. The Democratic Socialist has made extraordinary promises to the citizens of the nation's largest city, and it's about time to start weighing the implications. To that end, Henry sits down with E.J. McMahon of the Manhattan Institute. The two discuss the executive powers of the office itself, along with the various bodies (from the city council to the state house and up to the White House) that will either help or hinder the frontrunner's grand plans.
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127
Behind the Decision Desk
Listeners of this podcast have surely spent an election day evening glued to a screen as they watched results trickle in. But have you ever wondered how those results are disseminated? Or how races are called ahead of the final count? To get us up to speed on the process, Henry chats with Michael Prusser and Geoffrey Skelley of the preeminent election results provider, Decision Desk HQ. Tune in for a fascinating discussion on how data-driven political animals work around the clock to get you the right election results faster than ever — and stay tuned til the end if you're interested in what experts will be looking for as votes come in from Virginia and New Jersey.
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126
More Cowbell!
We're one week into the government shutdown, and every day it remains thus Democrats have reason to fear what OMB Director Russ "The Reaper" Vought is planning. This is only the latest development that has conservatives optimistic about the prospects of an American restoration. To that end, Henry chats with Eric Teetsel, CEO of the Center for Renewing America. Eric explains the CRA's founding under Vought in 2021 and what they're up to today, now that the MAGA movement has its people back in the White House.
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125
A Shutdown Amid Trench Warfare
Federal employees may be out of the office indefinitely, but politics breaks for no one in America. So Henry is back with a rant to keep us up on the unsettled terrain that partisans are clamouring over. He looks into how the government shutdown blame game might play out; he dives into the latest Economist/YouGov public opinion data to disentangle the issues that animate partisans and moderates; and then leaves the drama of Washington aside to check in on the approaching races in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City.
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124
A Conversation with We The People
The great trouble with contemporary polling comes down to drawing a representative analysis from one-word responses. It's not just polling sceptics that have noticed this limitation, which is why Scott Rasmussen of the Napolitan Institute teamed up with Yasmin Green, CEO of Google AI incubator Jigsaw, to create the We the People project ahead of our nation's 250th birthday. The initiative incorporates chatbot technology to draw Americans from all 435 congressional districts into a conversation that allows them to voice their nuanced takes on American politics and to add substance to their stances. Henry sits down with the duo to hear more about the just-launched program to hear more about the exciting program and the good news that has emerged from their early findings.
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123
Michele Tafoya, Off the Sidelines
If you've ever been of the habit this time of year to watch primetime professional football, you will have certainly encountered today's guest, Michele Tafoya. What you may not have known was that she was an astute observer of American politics. Now, with the NBC Sunday Night Football days behind her, Michele hosts her own podcast to discuss the matters she once had to keep off the field. Michele sat down with Henry to discuss her political awakening and conversion to conservatism; her frustrations with what the DFL has done to her beloved Minnesota; and the nudges she receives to throw her hat in the ring as a candidate.
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122
Chris Hayes on The Sirens' Call
The game has changed, and it's time to throw out the old playbook. So asserts Chris Hayes, host of MSNBC's "All In with Chris Hayes," in his latest book, The Sirens' Call: How Attention Became the World's Most Endangered Resource. He and Henry sat down on Wednesday to discuss the most fought-after commodity of the Digital Age: attention. They explore how our sleek modern tools have altered the way campaigns are executed, and why the political winners of this century will be those who can wield the gadgets of the future while possessing the ancient charisma that moves the people.
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121
Sorting Out The Storting
Norwegian polls close on Monday, and a whopping 10 parties are vying to expand their share of the 169 seats in the nation's parliamentary body, the Storting. Nils Andresen of Minerva, Norway's conservative periodical, joins Henry to discuss the tightening race between the dominant Red-Green and Civic Bloc coalitions, as well as the internal shuffling among their constituents. Tune in for a survey of the Labour Party's late recovery and the rise of the right-populist Progress Party, along with commentary on the smaller players, such as the reconstruction efforts of the formerly-Maoist Red Party, the coalition shift of the agrarian Centre Party, and the objective of the independent Patient Focus.
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120
Distinguishing Disarray from Disaster with Bill Galston
There's no denying that Democrats are in hot water after Donald Trump's surprising big win last November. The Brookings Institution's William Galston considers the party's oft-mentioned "disarray" to be exactly what one ought to expect under the circumstances. With many years of political advising under his belt and a cool head primed for strategic thinking, he chats with Henry about the Democratic Party's advantage heading into the midterms, the leadership vacuum, and the question of whether moderates will prevail in the near future.
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119
A Mid-Decadal Clustercuss
Texas has fired the first shots of the redistricting war of 2025, so Henry's back with a rant for all who are still a tad confused, either by the controversy as it stands and/or where it's headed now that other states are drafting their own battle plans. Tune in for a detailed analysis of various states' statutes and cartographic reserves ahead of potential gerrymanders; essential data inputs to make sense of President Trump's approval rating; and a close look at the races that will determine control of that other legislative chamber.
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118
Hammering out the Meaning of MAGA
A decade has passed since Donald Trump rode down the golden escalator to initiate a movement to make America great again, but conflicts within the coalition emerge like clockwork, proving that a definitive interpretation remains elusive. Is MAGA simply the net effect of Donald Trump's musings and maneuvers? Or is there a core ideology that successors carry on when Trump exits and the realignment settles? Josh Hammer joins Henry today to answer these big-picture questions and to propose the essential intermediate-term considerations.
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117
The Goose, the Gander, and the Gerrymander
Depending on who's in power, blatantly partisan redistricting may be derided as the ultimate dirty ploy or defended as a practical measure to cultivate fairer representation. The recent effort to carve out a few more safe Republican districts in Texas has set off blue state governors, with some preparing to "go nuclear." To help get our bearings amid proliferation threats, Henry brings back Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball for a deep assessment of how an escalating redistricting war might play out. Plus, they take note of a handful of new Senate contestants that might shake up the races in key swing states.
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116
A Midsummer Day's Rant
The president's approval rating is down some, and given the amount on his plate this month, it's hard to pin down exactly what's driving it. Today, Henry considers the effects of the piling matters of import, including lingering interest in the Jeffrey Epstein case, the "One Big Beautiful Bill," deportations, and Trump's fight with the Federal Reserve; he breaks down the balancing act of appeals to the political base against converts and independents, and puts the approval rating numbers in context of their midterm implications. Additionally, he examines the latest fundraising numbers to provide a glimpse into how some congressional races are developing. Beyond the Polls is off next week, but we'll be back in early August!
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115
Fight, Fight, Fighting in Butler, PA
While we all got a glimpse of that fateful day in rural Pennsylvania a year ago, a relative few actually witnessed it—Butler is not, after all, the kind of town most take time to visit. But reporter Salena Zito not only found herself there that day, but close enough to feel the velocity of the assassin's bullets. She joins Henry to discuss the event and what it reveals about the character of President Trump, as illuminated in her best-selling, brand-new book: Butler: The Untold Story of the Near Assassination of Donald Trump and the Fight for America's Heartland.
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114
What's Left for The Left?
Following the stunning defeat in November, there's been no shortage of speculation on the tough road ahead for Democrats, but to get a clearer sense of that camp's prospects, one would do well to chat with a member who's stuck it out through the party's past ups and downs. Michael Tomasky, Editor of The New Republic and Democracy: A Journal of Ideas, joins Henry today to discuss the Liberal/Progressive divide and the challenge of corralling the constituencies, all in the context of a party with a long history and teeming with ambitious plans for the future.
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113
Patriots and Partisans
We're on theme this week! As Americans head toward the celebration of another free and independent trip around the sun, Henry sits down with AEI's Karlyn Bowman to discuss the latest findings on how citizens of different stripes feel about their country and their sentiments about being Americans, along with their handling of flags and familiarity with our founding documents. Happy Independence Day to all!
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112
Matt Continetti on the Fight for the Right
Reports about tensions within MAGA-world might give the impression that a unified whole is finally cracking up, but Henry and Matthew Continetti know better than to conflate a political party with its reigning faction. The duo takes us through the last century of rightward squabbles, from the early days of rudderless reaction to the formation of movement conservatism, and on to Donald Trump's fateful ride down the escalator through to the present. Tune in for a detailed account of how the Republican Party's constituent parts formed, with considerations on how they might manage to cohere in the future. And for those interested in diving deeper, be sure to read each author's indispensable books on the topics discussed: - The Right: The Hundred-Year War for American Conservatism (Continetti)- The Working Class Republican: Ronald Reagan and the Return of Blue-Collar Conservatism (Olsen)
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111
Events, Dear Boy
As we approach the summer, it appears that the world is retaking the initiative after months of trying to keep up with Donald Trump. Henry, going solo this week, starts by diving into Trump's latest favorability ratings and the generic congressional ballot, putting them into context with past election cycles. Then, he looks into polling on the news of urban unrest, strikes in the Middle East, and New York City's Mayoral Democratic primary to give us a sense of how events can stir the waters and dash all hopes for smooth sailing.
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110
For Love of the Numbers Game
It's the Henry & Harry Happy Hour this week, as CNN's Harry Enten drops in with his irrepressible pizzazz to talk political data. First, the two discuss Harry's findings on the dramatic swing of immigrant citizens' growing hawkishness on illegal immigration. There's some chatter on Trump's abiding approval ratings and speculation on how events (from unrest in LA to elections in NY and NJ) will determine the best course for the parties. Then the gents consider the qualities that make a pro in their line of work. And, naturally, there's some speculation on the upcoming Bills season from a fella who bleeds red, white, and royal blue.
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109
New Jersey's Lollapalooza, Shindig, and Battle Royale
We're back stateside with a primary election! Whatever you want to call this race, voters in New Jersey will take to the polls on Tuesday to select the nominees for their next governor. While Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli looks like a safe bet after landing Donald Trump's endorsement, six Democrats are still duking it out to win over constituents who want to see a fighter on the ticket. Matthew Klein of the Cook Political Report joins Henry to brief us on the issues on the table and the personalities in the ring.
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108
Beyond the Polish Polls
Krystoff Mularczyk joins Henry ahead of the second round of Poland's presidential election on June 1st. Krystoff explains the history of the country's top parties, Civic Platform and Law and Justice, their development out of Solidarity, and how their break has devolved into the bitter fight before us. We also learn about the leading candidates, Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, along with a few dark horses worth watching. And if political dirty tricks get you excited — or if you'll find some relief in knowing it doesn't just happen to us — this one's for you.
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107
Ranting to Sort the Catalist Report
Henry's back with an all-rant episode to assess a couple of significant developments that party leaders ought to take notice of. First, he dives into the movements of President Trump's approval numbers over the past seven weeks to parse out what voters are truly reacting to. Then we're brought along for a deep analysis of Catalist's comprehensive "What Happened in 2024" report to see how recent voter behavior has thwarted long-held projections for the electorate's subgroups.
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106
To Be or Not To Be a Democracy
Romanian elections don't typically generate much excitement with an American audience, but Călin Georgescu's sudden rise, the annulment of last year’s vote, and the ban on his running in this year’s election grabbed our attention in this topsy-turvy decade of near-daily surprises. With the final round of 2025's election set for Sunday, Remus Stefureac, CEO of INSCOP Research, joins Henry today to discuss the scandals surrounding last year's canceled presidential race, the leading candidates, nationalist George Simion and independent Nicușor Dan, the circumstances in parliament, the Romanian diaspora variable, and economic and foreign policy considerations that are driving (and expected to complicate) the push for change. And, of course, we hear about INSCOP's polling ahead of this weekend's vote.
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105
Back on the Track with Steve Kornacki
Donald Trump's approval numbers have fallen precipitously since the election, but so far the drop has brought him back to the muddied earth he's used to rather than burying him underground. Given the upheaval in voter sentiment toward the parties over the past decade, it's hard to tell the dark horse from the frontrunner. So Henry summons NBC's national political correspondent Steve Kornacki from his tour on the Triple Crown circuit to help us get some traction on what these numbers could mean in '26.
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104
Three Little Letters that Mark the State of Play
Ever wonder how Beltway insiders assess which congressional seats are potential flips, and therefore worth a cash infusion? Since the late 1990s, a favorite tool for pros has been the Cook Political Report's PVI — the Partisan Voter Index. Today, Henry catches up with Dave Wasserman to look into how the PVI is calculated and to help us understand what numbers mean; they review earlier reports to understand how the country trended toward partisan gridlock over the years, and consider how Donald Trump's favorability numbers come Labor Day 2026 will influence which districts election committees will consider within reach (and which beleaguered incumbents will be wise to consider scorching earth).
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103
Canada Cooling on Conservatives (For Now)
When President Trump started singing a song about the most beautiful word in the English language, Pierre Polievre's march to 24 Sussex stalled. It's now a safe bet that Mark Carney will keep his job as prime minister after Monday's election, but it's unclear how he'll keep his expanded Liberal coalition happy in the years to come. Today, Henry sits down with Sean Speer of The Hub to discuss the sudden turn of fortune for Canada's top two parties. Among other things, they take a close look at the consolidation efforts under both leaders, wonder what's to be done with Quebec, and consider what the feuding forces of progressivism and working-class populism will mean for the future of our neighbors to the north.
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102
CAP Action's Fight to Fix the Democrats' Attention Deficit
In an era when American politics closely resembles a WWE cage match, strength and flair go a long way. That's why Navin Nayak of the Center for American Progress's Action Fund joins Henry to explain why his party is on the ropes. Navin argues that polished messaging and ideological extrapolation don't cut it in the digital media landscape. Voters like a confrontation, so to generate attention the Democrats will need to take a page from the Bernie/AOC tag team and start making a scene.
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
Each week Henry Olsen, columnist and senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, will talk about the presidential and congressional races with leading political journalists and analysts, people who are out in the field and won't give you media spin. Find out who's leading the pack and who's an also-ran, with Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen.Listen to Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen, along with more than 40 other original podcasts, at Ricochet.com. No paid subscription required.
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