Biotalk

During the Asia-focused Episode 35 of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, reviews key 2026 Q1 trends across China, Japan, and Korea.  China: Dominated global licensing with 66% of deal value -up from 48% in full-year 2025 -anchored by CSPC–AstraZeneca ($18.5B) and Innovent–Lilly ($8.5B). Venture financing surged to a three-year high of $1.2B across 17 deals, led by Corxel Pharmaceuticals’ $287M oral GLP-1 Series D. Out-licensing remains the dominant business model, now structural and increasingly central to global biopharma dealmaking.  Japan: Biotech stocks outperformed pharma (+10% vs. +8%), and the IPO market reopened after 18 months with Innovacell and J-Pharma raising $112M combined. Japan-based buyers licensed three programs averaging $1.2B in deal value, with 100% from early-stage programs -reflecting growing appetite for pipeline diversification.  Korea: The KOSPI rose 17%, though biotech stocks fell 14%. Venture financing rebounded to $125M across six deals, up from just $18M in Q4 2025, concentrated in early-stage oncology. Korean sellers drove the majority of licensing activity from non-major markets with two early-stage transactions averaging $405M.  Regional Takeaway: Q1 2026 confirmed Asia-Pacific’s rising centrality in global biopharma. China’s record out-licensing drove global deal value, Japan reopened its public markets, and Korea showed early signs of a cautious recovery.  Listen now to gain insights into the evolving global biopharma landscape, explore our report, and we welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you.  

During Episode 34 of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, unpacks our 2026 Q1 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions, covering capital markets, strategic deals, and regional trends.   Market Overview: Q1 2026 was defined by continuity rather than reversal. Licensing tied a three-year high, M&A recorded its strongest first quarter ever, and U.S. capital markets reopened meaningfully with the return of biotech IPOs. China’s dominance in global licensing expanded further, while Europe and the UK remained challenged.  Strategic Transactions: Global licensing reached approximately $87B across 57 transactions, with greater than 90% of deal value concentrated in early-stage programs. China-based sellers drove 66% of global licensing value -up from 48% in full-year 2025 -with average deal values rising to ~$1.9B and upfront payments more than doubling sequentially to ~$179M.  M&A delivered the strongest Q1 on record at ~$50B, a 58% year-over-year increase. U.S.-based sellers accounted for 95% of deal value, with Phase 2 assets emerging as the leading contributor at 38% and oncology rebounding to 42% of deal value.  Capital Markets: Six U.S. biotech IPOs raised ~$1.8B -exceeding the full-year 2025 total. Venture financing surged 44% quarter-over-quarter to $5B, and reductions in force hit a three-year low of 34. In contrast, European venture financing fell 63% to $613M, with capital concentrated in a handful of late-stage financings.  Outlook: Strategic dealmaking remains strong, and capital markets are increasingly open, but deal structures will continue to favor milestone-heavy economics. China’s structural role in global licensing and venture financing will shape partnership and exit strategies across the remaining quarters of 2026. 

During the Asia-focused Episode 33 of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, reviews key 2025 Year-In-Review trends across China, Japan, and Korea. China: Led global licensing (~48% share) with larger average deal sizes than the U.S. Public markets outperformed and Q4 IPO activity rebounded. Venture financing held steady, with out-licensing cemented as the dominant business model alongside more creative deal structures and cross-border activity. Japan: The Nikkei hit record highs and biotech momentum improved. Licensing rose to 13 deals across all development stages. Venture financing doubled, skewing early-stage, with strength in GI and renewed interest in cell therapy. Korea: Broader markets reached record highs, but biotech lagged. Venture financing rose meaningfully (40% volume, 60% value), focused on mid- to late-stage assets, especially oncology and protein degradation. Regional Takeaway: 2025 marked a turning point for Asia-Pacific biotech: China drove deal value and listings, Japan revitalized early-stage innovation, and Korea showed a cautious rebound as capital markets continued to thaw. Listen now to gain insights into the evolving global biopharma landscape, explore our report, and we welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you. 

During Episode 32 of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, unpacks our 2025 Year-In-Review Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions, covering capital markets, strategic deals, and regional trends.  Market Overview: 2025 marked a clear recovery year for biopharma. Licensing reached record levels, global M&A nearly doubled in value, and capital markets strengthened in the second half as stabilizing rates lifted sentiment. Most notably, China surpassed the U.S. as the leading source of global licensing value. Strategic Transactions: Global licensing totaled roughly $230B across 179 deals, with strength in both early- and late-stage assets. Discovery and preclinical programs made up about 61% of deals, while a late-year rise in Phase 3 transactions pushed average deal sizes to three-year highs. China-based sellers accounted for nearly 50% of global licensing value with larger average deal sizes, while the U.S. led in volume. Absolute upfronts rose about 55% versus 2024. M&A rebounded to approximately $141B across 79 deals, increasingly focused on late-stage and approved assets. Major transactions including Novartis/Avidity, Pfizer/Metsera, and Merck/Cidara drove average deal sizes to multi-year highs. Capital Markets: U.S. public markets outperformed the broader market despite a largely closed IPO window. PIPEs and follow-ons surged, pushing public financings to a three-year high of about $16B, and the number of companies trading below cash fell nearly 60%. In Europe, financing value rose roughly 35% on strong Q4 activity, with investors favoring Phase 1 and Phase 2 programs. Outlook: A selective recovery is underway. Strategic dealmaking remains strong, capital markets are thawing, and high quality assets continue to attract capital, while APAC, especially China and Japan, plays an increasingly central role in global biopharma transactions.

During Episode 31 of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, explores Asia-Pacific biotech momentum across China, Japan, and Korea, as featured in our 2025 Q3 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report. China: Led globally in licensing ($34.2B, 48% share), with venture financing up nearly 4x. Investor confidence rose alongside strong public market gains and creative deal structures. Japan: Shifted toward early-stage, non-core areas like dermatology and metabolic disease. Licensing values fell, but venture funding spiked 300% as the Nikkei hit record highs. Korea: Normalized after Q2 strength; modest licensing and market gains amid continued caution. Regional Takeaway: Asia-Pacific remains a bright spot—China driving deal value, Japan diversifying early innovation, and Korea stabilizing. The region reflects a measured but sustained re-engagement in biotech capital and partnerships. Listen now to gain insights into the evolving global biopharma landscape, explore our report, and we welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you. 

During Episode 30 of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, unpacks our 2025 Q3 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report, covering capital markets, strategic deals, and regional trends.  Market Overview: Q3 signaled a cautious biotech recovery. Valuations rebounded, the XBI topped 100 for the first time since 2022, and the number of companies trading below cash hit multi-year lows. Investor sentiment shifted from survival to selective growth amid improving macro stability and risk tolerance. Strategic Transactions: Licensing held steady with renewed interest in early-stage programs and back-loaded structures (upfronts <5%). Non-oncology deal value hit a four-year high, while M&A surged 64%, driven by late-stage assets—highlighted by Pfizer’s $4.9B Metsera and Merck’s $10B Verona Pharma acquisitions. Capital Markets: Financing activity rose ~40% from Q2 as the IPO window reopened and follow-ons jumped 81%. The XBI and NBI rallied, signaling renewed investor confidence. Europe saw more deals but smaller rounds, underscoring ongoing selectivity. Outlook: A selective recovery is underway. Strategic dealmaking and M&A remain strong, capital markets are thawing, and quality assets continue to attract capital. Biotechs should stay agile and ready for partnerships or non-dilutive funding.

During the Asia-focused Episode 29 of Biotalk, Geoff shares insights into key trends and developments shaping the biotech landscapes in Japan, China, Korea, Australia, and the broader Asia-Pacific region, as featured in our 2025 Q2 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report. Japan’s biotech stocks outperformed broader indices, boosted by regulatory reforms and Shionogi’s $1.1B acquisition of Japan Tobacco’s pharma units. Licensing slowed, while early-stage financings focused on preclinical firms. China’s biotech market surged with four HKEX IPOs raising $1.5B. Venture funding fell as risk aversion grew, but strategic licensing stayed strong at $24.4B, shifting toward later-stage oncology and obesity deals. Korea’s biotech index dipped but showed 12-month gains, driven by ABL Bio’s $2.8B licensing deal with GSK and key Series B financings. Listen now to gain insights into the evolving global biopharma landscape, explore our report, and we welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you. 

During Episode 28 of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, unpacks our 2025 Q2 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report, covering capital markets, strategic deals, and regional trends.  Market Overview: Biotech remained under pressure in Q2, with valuations still below historical norms. Ongoing macro headwinds—tariffs, high rates, and FDA turnover—kept investor sentiment cautious and risk appetite low. M&A & Licensing: Licensing rose 20% in value, focused on late-stage immunology assets. China and Europe drove activity, while U.S. firms dominated M&A, accounting for 80% of deal value. Public takeout premiums rebounded sharply. Capital Markets: U.S. biotech funding fell 28% with no IPOs—the first blank quarter since 2020. Venture also dropped 32%, though a few large late-stage rounds stood out. Europe saw fewer deals but larger average round sizes. Outlook: Strategic deals remain a vital funding source as capital markets stay tight. Biotechs should extend runway and explore partnerships, with pharma interest in quality assets showing no signs of slowing. Listen now to gain insights into the evolving biopharma landscape, explore our report, and we welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you.

During Episode 27 of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, steps back to examine the macro forces shaping the biopharma landscape. After holding a bearish outlook since 2021, Geoff explains why he’s finally shifting his stance and what could signal a true turnaround for biotech. He unpacks the “big three” market headwinds—regulatory hurdles from the IRA, FTC deal scrutiny, and high interest rates—and outlines how recent shifts, including rate cuts, new FTC leadership, and potential IRA reform, could spark renewed momentum, especially in M&A and rare diseases. Geoff also highlights previously underappreciated risks like HHS cuts and aggressive tariffs, which could stall progress if unresolved. With a balanced, apolitical lens, this episode offers candid insights into why policy matters for biotech investors, operators, and dealmakers—and what to watch for as 2025 unfolds. Tune in to understand the key inflection points and why Geoff sees the second half of 2025 as a potential breakout period for the industry. Full Transcript: Welcome to Biotalk. My name is Geoff Meyerson, CEO and Co-founder of Locust Walk, and you are listening to Biotalk, our podcast for biotech deal makers. In this episode, I want to zoom out and talk about the bigger picture — what’s really driving the biotech market right now. In almost every meeting the past few months I have been asked my views on the market.  I decided that I am going to share my thoughts publicly. I fancy myself to be a free market limited government champion across all aspects of life. I do not comment politically nor believe it is my job to criticize or promote any politician or party. That said, the macro policies enacted by both parties directly impact the biopharma industry, and I believe it’s important to analyze and comment on areas related to the life science industry. For all other issues, I subscribe to the University of Chicago’s institutional neutrality, and it is my (and Locust Walk’s) policy to not comment publicly. First a recap of why I was bearish starting fall 2021 when Locust Walk ran a webinar titled “Has Biotech Peaked”. Throughout 2022, 2023, and until September 2024, despite many market analysts predicting a turnaround, I maintained my bearishness because the 3 underlying headwinds that started blowing hadn’t stopped or reversed, namely: Regulatory headwinds because of the IRA Transaction headwinds from an openly hostile FTC Monetary headwinds via high interest rates caused by high inflation Until these 3 drivers reversed, I didn’t believe the market would improve beyond incremental changes. When in September 2024 the US Federal Reserve dropped rates by 50 bps, the rate tightening cycle had not only stopped but reversed. My changing perspective was independent of the pending election since the largest factor interest rates was starting to shift. In January 2025, Lina Khan exited the FTC and a new era of antitrust enforcement began. While far from perfect, it has been markedly more pro-business with a much less aggressive effort to block transactions. Locust Walk’s Quarterly Market conditions detailed a 47% uptick in M&A by value and 35% by volume showing signs of life in this market even though I didn’t anticipate any material improvement until 2H25 because it takes time for deals to come to fruition after the changeover in policy. I predicted M&A had the potential to transform the industry this year after years of suppression. I stand by this prediction and for everyone’s sake I hope I’m right. The IRA pill fix is being discussed and because President Trump has come out in support, some form of it is likely to make its way into the reconciliation package of tax and regulatory cuts. I hope small molecules move to 13 years of exclusivity but bigger price discounts thereafter to remain budget neutral rather than meeting in the middle at 11 years, which I think would be quite problematic. This has the potential to be a major win for the biopharma industry, spurring additional investment into small molecules and peptides. If the tax cuts are extended and regulatory reform across the board is enacted, that would be very pro-growth and a big positive for the broader market and create more of a risk-on mindset. The two forces that I didn’t anticipate as large a negative for the market were the impact of DOGE / job cuts on the functioning of the FDA and the degree of aggressiveness with which the tariffs were rolled out. First. While the HHS cuts were not unexpected, the speed and potential to impact day-to-day functioning of the agency was/is cause for concern. I predict that calmer heads will prevail, and the right people will be rehired/retained and this will be a short-term blip rather than a long-term negative change at the agency. The whole point of DOGE was to reduce government waste, fraud and abuse and to make government more efficient. If these cuts make government less efficient, then that directly contradicts the administration’s priorities including getting drugs to patients with severe disease and to end chronic disease. Since one thing the administration does well is solicit feedback from industry leaders, I suspect this will get the President’s ear if not fixed. I believe the RFK fight with Peter Marks was limited to vaccines, which while quite unfortunate that fairly settled science around vaccines for diseases like measles is being relitigated, it is still a small minority of the industry. The industry didn’t do a great job in transparency related to the COVID vaccine rollout related to adverse events, which caused a significant loss of credibility and trust in the industry. Between when I originally wrote this text and recording, FDA Commissioner Marty Makary announced a new head of CBER, Vinay Prasad, who based on his own writings and commentary appears to be much more hostile to the biopharma industry than I would have expected or hoped. While actions always speak louder than words, I am troubled by the pick and hope his worst ideas don’t come to pass. In the good news department, I put more weight on recent comments made by Makary around speeding up drug approvals for severe conditions (again something that might contradict Vinay’s views). I stand by and double down on a prediction I made right after the election (minute 21:36 for specific prediction) around a resurgence of interest in rare disease drugs. If rare disease drugs are fully excluded from the IRA (currently you can only have one indication approved to avoid the IRA), I see the market surging for rare disease drugs even further. Lastly, but likely most importantly, the drag on the industry from tariffs has been material, not because of the direct impact on biotech, which has limited exposure to imports (that’s really pharma companies who parked their IP in Ireland or other territories to avoid US taxation), but because of the potential for stagflation and the Fed keeping interest rates higher than anticipated. If this piece doesn’t get resolved in the US’ favor and within the next 3 to 5 months, I predict this will be the story for 2025 and drown out all other factors which are mostly a net positive for the industry. My prediction, however, is that Trump did major damage to his brand and approval ratings due to the trade war and needs some wins. Countries like India will announce major deals and create much better conditions for American companies and workers to bring back jobs including for export to other countries. If that happens for several deals in this window, I think the markets will react in a very positive way and will minimize the damage of the China trade war. Regarding China, I’m hopeful these two co-dependent frenemies can work it out, but it might not be necessary if many other trade deals are announced. So, where does that leave us? With tremendous uncertainty, which is why the XBI has crept back to where it was before “Liberation Day” excluding yesterday’s collapse and still 18% below where it started the year. Politicians and policy do impact our day-to-day biotech lives and it’s important everyone in the industry understands the dynamics at play. I’m bullish that the second half of 2025 on balance will be a stronger recovery, once we put most of the first 100 day turbulence and tariffs behind us and start reaping the benefits of net positive changes to policy and personnel. Let’s hope for all our sakes that I’m right. I want to thank everyone for listening to this episode of Biotalk.  We look forward to a productive dialogue and hope you join our next podcast.  Please share with all your friends and colleagues to help us grow the audience.  This is Geoff Meyerson for Biotalk signing off. 

During the Asia-focused Episode 26 of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, shares fresh insights from Japan, China, and Korea, as featured in our 2025 Q1 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report.  Japan saw modest market recovery, a $3.3B buyout of Mitsubishi Tanabe, and lighter licensing activity. Early-stage financings picked up as investors re-engaged. China shifted from IPO optimism to global deal-making as markets cooled. Notable trends included strong out-licensing ($17.6B), AstraZeneca’s $2.5B investment, and Ascentage’s NASDAQ debut backed by Takeda. Venture activity rebounded, driven by insider-led late-stage rounds. Korea drew attention with Orum’s IPO, early-stage deals, and a growing focus on CDMO by major players. Listen now to gain insights into the evolving global biopharma landscape, explore our report, and we welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you.

During Episode 25 of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, unpacks our 2025 Q1 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report, covering capital markets, strategic deals, and regional trends. Market Overview: The XBI fell 14% YoY, underperforming the NBI. Biotech weakness stemmed from tariff fears, FDA turnover, and HHS layoffs—pressuring small caps. Capital Markets: Capital raised dropped 33% from Q4. IPOs briefly reopened—large caps gained, small caps declined. Follow-ons fell 60%. PIPEs were weak, except Immunovant’s $450M. Venture: Slight dip from Q4 but ahead of all 2023 quarters. Late-stage rounds led, with 11 mega-rounds (Eikon $351M, Kardigan $300M) making up over half the total. M&A & Licensing: M&A hit $25.2B across 13 deals, focused on Ph2+ assets (e.g., J&J/Intra-Cellular). Licensing stayed strong, favoring clinical-stage programs. Europe: Strategic deal value reached $13B, led by Zealand-Roche and Gubra-AbbVie. Venture hit $1.2B—90% in Series A rounds like Verdiva ($411M) and Windward ($200M). Outlook: Regulatory uncertainty and rates may delay M&A, though late-stage and commercial deals could gain momentum. Listen now to gain insights into the evolving biopharma landscape, explore our report, and we welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you.

During this episode of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, explores the evolving biotech landscapes in Japan and China, highlighting key trends and developments shaping the region as featured in our 2024 Year-In-Review Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report. Geoff leverages extensive conversations with strategics and investors worldwide to provide insights into global biotech deal-making. Key topics include:Japan’s Recovery in 2024: A rebound in licensing activity reached $2.1B in Q4, driven by preclinical and small molecule deals. Venture financing grew 20%, with Series C and D rounds leading the charge.China’s Strategic Transactions: Licensing deal value surged to $47B, driven by out-licensing, regulatory improvements, and NewCo formations. US investors are highly valued, with reverse mergers and IPOs becoming popular strategies for accessing US capital markets.Key Themes: Japan’s focus on in-licensing signals interest in earlier-stage innovation, while China’s “fallen angel” assets provide US companies with cost-effective opportunities.Looking ahead to 2025, Geoff discusses how stabilization in Japan and China’s growing innovation will shape global biotech, despite regulatory and geopolitical challenges.

During this episode of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, unpacks our 2024 Year-In-Review Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report. Geoff dives into the insights from the comprehensive report and offers a forward-looking perspective on what 2025 may bring for the biotech industry. Key topics include:Capital Markets Performance: The XBI ended flat, down 0.2%, underperforming the S&P 500’s 24% gain. However, 2024 saw a 156% increase in capital raised compared to 2022, with IPO and follow-on financings improving in Q4.Venture Financing Trends: Q4 venture financing remained stable at ~$4B across 43 deals, with Series A and B rounds leading. Mega-rounds grew, including Kailera’s $400M Series A and Metsera’s $215M Series B.Strategic Transactions: Licensing deal value surged 135% in Q4, driven by early-stage deals, while M&A activity slowed, with no deals exceeding $5B.Regional Highlights: Europe and Asia saw a rise in venture and licensing activity, with Asia’s cross-border deals and NewCo formations becoming key trends. This will be discussed further in a separate podcast.Market Outlook for 2025: With a new FTC chair, M&A and licensing deals are expected to rise in 2025. IPO markets will improve with gradually reduced interest rates, though risk aversion remains with private mega-rounds persisting to reduce financing risk.Geoff offers advice for navigating the current market and highlights Asia’s growing role in global biotech. Stay tuned for our upcoming podcast on Asian markets.Listen now to gain insights into the evolving biopharma landscape, explore our report, and we welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you.

On this episode of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO and Co-founder of Locust Walk, speaks with Sudhir Agrawal, Founder and President of ARNAY Sciences and a pioneer in RNA therapeutics. Sudhir’s extensive career spans over three decades, during which he has made groundbreaking contributions to the field, including developing gapmer antisense technology, immune modulation approaches, and, in recent years, designing cyclic structures of DNA and RNA for therapeutic applications.In their conversation, Sudhir recounts his journey from his early days in nucleic acid research to becoming a leading innovator in RNA therapeutics. He delves into the origins of the gapmer technology, its impact on antisense drug development, and the lessons learned from his time Idera Pharmaceuticals. He also shares insights into his latest work on cyclic RNA/DNA structures and discusses his vision for the future of nucleic acid therapeutics. He concludes by offering practical advice to entrepreneurs aspiring to break into the biotech space and sharing his thoughts on the future of RNA science. Join us for a deep dive into the world of RNA therapeutics with one of its most influential figures.

In this episode of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, is joined by Andy Meyerson, Managing Director, and Daniel Brog, Senior Vice President, for an insightful discussion on the implications of the 2024 U.S. election results for the biotech industry. The conversation delves into:What Trump's victory could mean for the biotech sector.The potential impact on the HHS and FDA under RFK's leadership.How figures like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy might influence healthcare policy (DOGE dynamics).We take a balanced approach, covering the potential positive and negative outcomes, implications, and our perspectives on these topics. Our analysis is based on actual statements made and prior activities, focusing specifically on the impacts for biotech. While we aim to minimize bias, we acknowledge that personal perspectives inevitably influence conclusions. Please note this was recorded Friday, November 23, before the announcements of the FDA Commissioner, Surgeon General, and Head of the CDC later that day. Join us as we explore how these political outcomes could shape the future of biotech and healthcare innovation. We welcome your thoughts and look forward to engaging in further discussions as events unfold. Email us at [email protected] to share your insights or questions.

On this episode of BioTalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, sits down with David Harel, CEO and Co-founder of CytoReason. CytoReason uses AI-powered disease models to transform drug discovery and development, offering pharmaceutical companies insights that reduce both time and costs in bringing new therapies to market.David shares his journey from private equity to co-founding CytoReason—an idea sparked on a beach in Israel. They discuss why no one had applied molecular data this way before, how CytoReason’s models differ from existing approaches, and the benefits they offer in accelerating drug development. They also delve into the evolving role of AI in drug discovery, the transformative potential it holds, and the critical challenges the industry will face as the field scales. Reflecting on the importance of diverse thinking in this fast-evolving space, David notes, "Diversity of opinions is critical to making things work. You need diverse perspectives to distill the truth before it's delivered to the customer, who is highly educated and smart. Without tough questions being asked openly, things can fall apart quickly."David also offers three key pieces of advice for entrepreneurs looking to enter the intersection of AI and life sciences today. Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify.  

During this episode of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, unpacks our 2024 Q3 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report. Each quarter, Locust Walk’s deal team compiles key statistics and trends showcasing the current state of global private and public capital markets, strategic partnerships, and M&A in the biopharma sector.   In this episode, Geoff provides valuable insights into our report, focusing on critical areas such as:   Biotech capital markets: The XBI rose 7% in Q3, outperforming the S&P 500, driven by strong clinical readouts and strategic deals, with six IPOs showing strong investor demand.  Private biotech markets: Venture financing dropped to $3.9B across 41 deals, with average deal size decreasing, while Series A and B deals led the market, showing renewed investor interest in early-stage companies.  Strategic transaction activity: Licensing deal value fell by 22%, and M&A shifted to smaller deals focusing on early clinical-stage opportunities, with global deal values remaining down.  Market outlook and advice for the months ahead: Locust Walk expects continued momentum in Q4 due to further Fed rate cuts, advises careful cash management, and foresees a stronger recovery by 2025.  We invite you to listen to our podcast and read our report and welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you.  Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify.   

On this episode of Biotalk, Locust Walk’s Andy Meyerson welcomes Dr. Lindsay Rosenwald, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Fortress Biotech, a company focused on licensing and developing high-potential marketed and development-stage drugs. Lindsay shares his journey from physician to biotech entrepreneur and outlines Fortress Biotech’s strategy of licensing high-potential marketed and development-stage drug candidates, avoiding early-stage technologies. They discuss how Fortress capitalizes on inefficiencies in the drug development market, such as acquiring drugs approved abroad but not in the US, and the role of AI in improving drug search and evaluation efficiency. Despite concerns about macroeconomic risks and changes in healthcare spending, Lindsay believes Fortress can navigate these challenges by being a low-cost producer of drug candidates. Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify. Timestamps: 1:26 Lindsay, you have had an interesting and varied career across finance in life sciences. I always find successful people’s career arc fascinating – How did your career develop, and what lead you to your current role at Fortress Biotech? 3:58 What spurred your interest in life sciences? 5:26 What we hear over and over in our current discussions with investors is an interest in identifying high-quality assets from within pharma or biotechs that can be spun out into new companies. This has been gaining in attractiveness over the last 3 years as investor focus increases on clinical-stage assets. What I find interesting about this shift is that Fortress’ strategy has been to do this since its founding. This leads me to a couple of questions: What do you think about this current investor trend? 10:15  How did you arrive on the Fortress business model? 14:11 What do you see as the overall implications for everyone now that so many people are hunting for the same opportunities? 17:12 What potential do you see for AI in revolutionizing drug discovery and development at Fortress Biotech? 19:52 What is your current view on the biotech market, and what trends do you foresee shaping the industry in the coming years? 22:09 Given the dynamic nature of biotech, how is Fortress Biotech positioning itself to navigate future challenges and opportunities?

On this episode of Biotalk, Locust Walk’s Geoff Meyerson welcomes Stephen Sands, former Vice Chairman of Investment Banking and Chairman of the Global Healthcare Group, and currently Senior Advisor at Lazard, a renowned name in global financial services. Together, they explore Stephen’s journey into life sciences finance, his transition into financial and management roles within healthcare, his mentors, and how these relationships impacted his career. Geoff and Stephen also tackle the evolution of banking in today’s healthcare investment landscape, highlighting specialization’s role. They cover navigating challenges and strategies in investments, including banking structures, capital markets, trends, IPOs, banks’ role in deals, and future biopharma investment trends. Stephen offers valuable advice throughout the episode, specifically addressing CEOs on navigating the changing winds of the industry, providing insights into the intricacies of healthcare finance and investment strategies in the biopharma sector. Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify.    Timestamps: 1:26 To start, I’m eager to learn about your journey into the life sciences, and more specifically, to the financial and management side of healthcare. You to use your degrees in Biology and Chemical Engineering in this way. Tell us about your store and what brought you through the arch of your career. 7:11 Can you speak about the evolution of healthcare banking from your experience? 15:22 You have seen a lot of cycles in your career. How do you think this cycle compares to prior cycles? 20:45 What’s the secret to building relationships and and what’s your strategy for building such a robust M&A franchise? 23:52 What biopharma trends do you think will be emerging over the next 3-5 years? 27:57 How do you navigate these changing winds and what advice would you give to a CEO of a smaller company? 30:29 Are you a free agent, retired, board member? What’s next for you?

During this episode of Biotalk, Geoff Meyerson, CEO of Locust Walk, unpacks our 2024 Q1 Report: Global Trends in Biopharma Transactions Report. Each quarter, Locust Walk’s deal team compiles key statistics and trends showcasing the current state of global private and public capital markets, strategic partnerships, and M&A in the biopharma sector.   In this episode, Geoff provides valuable insights into our report, focusing on critical areas such as:   Biotech capital markets: Highlighting XBI’s recovery, strong market indicators, and increased PIPE activity since Q2 2023.  Private biotech markets: Saw the second-best deal quarter since 2021, yet activity remains flat compared to 2021’s robust fundraising  Strategic transaction activity: Observing big pharma’s large acquisitions, with US M&A lower than Q4 while EU firms showed strong activity.  Market outlook and advice for the months ahead.  We invite you to listen to our podcast and read our report and welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you. Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify.    Timestamps: 0:36 Deal Context, Quarter Highlights and Key Takeaways, and Future Outlook 6:23 Our Advice for the Current Market Transcription: Welcome to Biotalk. My name is Geoff Meyerson, CEO and Co-founder of Locust Walk, and you are listening to Biotalk, our podcast for biotech deal makers. This episode of Biotalk is focused on Locust Walk’s 2024 First Quarter market conditions Report, in which we apply the latest data to analyze current activities in the biopharma deal landscape. Each quarter, Locust Walk’s deal team compiles key statistics and trends showcasing what is happening in the global private and public capital markets and strategic partnering and M&A activity. Deal Context, Quarter Highlights and Key Takeaways, and Future Outlook To provide some structure, I will first cover biotech capital markets, touching on both public and private market performance over the past year. I will then transition into strategic transaction activity, covering both M&A and licensing. Please note, the full report published on the Locust Walk website is over 60 slides, so while I will do my best to summarize, as always, I encourage you to check out the full report for additional detail. To download this report, please go to locustwalk.com and go to our “Insights” page. Q1 of this year continued last quarter’s recovery of the XBI and saw a sharp upswing at the end of February on the heels of multiple positive data readouts. The XBI has since normalized but ended Q1 above prior 2023 highs. In support of this positive momentum, we saw several strong indicators of a potential recovery for the public biotech markets. Q1 saw an increase in follow-on offering’s volume and deal size (up $8.1B from $3.5B in Q4’23), and a meaningful increase in PIPE volume and size (up $2.6B from $1.7B in Q4’23). We’re seeing a trend of increasing PIPE activity that started in Q2 2023, reflecting companies’ preference to reduce financing risk by securing capital prior to data announcements, despite the cost of providing less favorable terms. For example, Avidity raised a $400M PIPE, a week before they announced positive data from their Phase 1/2 trial for their lead asset. IPO volume also doubled from Q4, which is positive, although there has been limited activity after the first half of Q1 and the companies going public largely remain limited to later-stage companies. I believe the IPO window is still relatively shut and the public market for early-stage companies will remain challenging, with the two preclinical IPOs, Metagenomi and Fractyl Health, struggling to perform already. To a lesser degree, the private US biotech markets saw some recovery in Q1 with 15 rounds >$100M, the second-best quarter in aggregate deal value since 2021, and nearing the 2023 peak seen in Q3. Overall, activity is still relatively flat when compared to the robust fundraising seen in 2021, but we are seeing signs of life. Private biotech investors remain somewhat risk-averse, as signaled by the relative share of value attributed to mid-to-late-stage clinical deals, increasing to 43% from 36% in Q4’23. We expect the private venture markets to be slower to recover, with meaningful upswings likely to be limited until rates are meaningfully cut, which appear less and less likely by the day for 2024. Interestingly, Series D & later rounds saw continued growth in the percentage of new investors vs. existing investors, which could point to crossover investors anticipating the IPO market re-opening in the near-term. A similar level of recovery has yet to be seen in ex-US geographies, with activity in Europe and Asia remaining stagnant this quarter. In terms of strategic transaction activity, the year was kick-started with several multi-billion-dollar acquisitions by big pharma (i.e., Gilead/CymaBay, AstraZeneca/Fusion), but this trend was not sustained throughout the quarter, and Q1 closed with the second lowest aggregate deal value and volume in the past 3 years for the US, a sharp correction from the Q4 deal value spike of $60B. On a more positive note, M&A deal activity for EU-based companies was strong this quarter, with four $1B+ acquisitions, including AstraZeneca’s $1B+ acquisition of Amolyt Pharma, a Phase 3 rare disease company based in France. We expect buyers will start to show an opportunistic increase in risk tolerance for earlier stage acquisitions as post-Phase 2 proof of concept companies become scarcer outside of oncology, and competition for these companies and assets drives premiums further up. For now, however, it seems that larger pharmas who can afford to wait-and-see will largely continue to do so, prioritizing the need for clinical validation at the cost of a higher price tag, as demonstrated by public M&A equity premiums, which increased nearly 10% from last quarter. In a similar vein, licensing activity fell compared to the volume seen in Q4, resulting in the second lowest quarter of aggregate deal value and volume in the past 3 years. Despite the markedly lower activity, one interesting indicator that may bode well for early-stage biotech is that Q1 licensing activity saw preclinical and discovery deals amass a much larger share of deal value than in 2023 (73% vs. 36%). This may suggest interest in early-stage opportunities among strategics is recovering as it relates to licensing opportunities. Our Advice for the Current MarketSo, what is our best advice for the current market? We believe that the year will not be a linear low to high scenario, which we’ve already seen the ups and down after only one quarter. That said, 2024 will be a better year than 2023 on most metrics. Both public and private markets will continue their positive momentum as the year goes on with the caveat of course around further exogenous events, like wars, and a rapidly changing interest rate outlook. As we see European and Asian financing activity continue to falter, the US market will get increasingly competitive to raise capital. Signals pointing to the crossover and IPO market re-opening are starting to appear, but securing investor dollars will continue to be a challenge given the backlog of private companies. Remaining clear-eyed about the data required to secure private and public capital continues to win the day, and we believe that creative solutions to get to value inflecting data milestones, even where dilutive or less favorable regarding terms, will be required for survival for early-stage companies. Notably, the continued pruning of public biotech companies trading bel...

In this episode, Geoff provides valuable insights into our report, focusing on critical areas such as: Biotech capital markets: XBI performance and IPO volume Private biotech markets: Financing deal value and volume remained flat Strategic transaction activity: Q4 marked a surge in multi-billion-dollar acquisitions Market outlook and advice for the year ahead We invite you to listen to our podcast and download our report for the Insights page and welcome the opportunity to discuss its contents with you.   Timestamps: Deal Context: 0:37 Our Advice for the Current Market: 6:11 Transcription: Welcome to Biotalk. My name is Geoff Meyerson, CEO and Co-founder of Locust Walk, and you are listening to Biotalk, our podcast for biotech deal makers. This episode of Biotalk is focused on Locust Walk’s 2023 Year-In-Review market conditions Report, in which we apply the latest data to analyze current activities in the biopharma deal landscape. Each quarter, Locust Walk’s deal team compiles key statistics and trends showcasing what is happening in the global private and public capital markets and strategic partnering and M&A activity. Deal Context, Quarter Highlights and Key Takeaways, and Future Outlook In the next few minutes, I will provide dealmaking context, highlight events that have had a critical impact on the biotech industry, and provide our outlook for the future along with our advice on how you can survive as a biotech dealmaker. To provide some structure, I will first cover biotech capital markets, touching on both public and private market performance over the past year.  I will then transition into strategic transaction activity, covering both M&A and licensing. Please note, the full report published on the Locust Walk website is over 60 slides, so while I will do my best to summarize, as always I encourage you to check out the full report for additional detail. To download this report, please go to locustwalk.com and go to our “Insights” page. As the listener of a biotech podcast, you may well know that this has been a relatively challenging year for the XBI until the middle of the 4th quarter. The index traded below end-of-year 2022 levels for much of the year, but in spite of this, finished up 8% due to a remarkable 4Q rebound. Digging in a little deeper, concurrent with this upswing, Q4 saw a significant uptick in total follow-on offering volume and size (up to $3.5B from $1.4B in Q3), as well as PIPE volume and size (up to $1.7B from $600M). Although IPO volume in the 4th quarter dropped from Q3 levels, annual IPO volume increase 30% from 2022 levels. Performance for IPO, follow-on, and PIPE offerings in Q4 was also generally positive in line with market performance. While all these indicators suggest the beginnings of a gradual thaw for biotech public markets, biotech public investors will be hoping Punxsutawney Phil does not see his shadow come February, heralding another XBI downturn, as was the case in 2023. Unfortunately, winter continued through 2023 for biotech private markets. Overall private financing deal value and volume in 2023 remained relatively flat with the depressed levels observed in 2022. Financing activity continues to be increasingly dominated by clinical stage opportunities, with deal value attributed to these deals increasing from 38% in 2021 to 58% in 2023. Interestingly, the distribution of Series rounds has remained relatively consistent over this period, suggesting that the bar for each financing round stage has risen somewhat uniformly across this period. The general malaise in biotech private financing markets also extended to European and Asian geographies, where 2023 levels remained about on par with 2022, and well below levels observed in the prior bull market cycle. In terms of strategic transaction activity, the string of multi-billion-dollar acquisitions by big pharma in Q4 was the catalyst many of us have been hoping to see for some time. In December alone, there were 7 biotech M&A deals greater than $1B, with 10 such deals occurring over 4Q. These transactions drove the largest quarter for biotech M&A since Q4 of 2020, and propelled aggregate 2023 value to $162B, significantly surpassing the $94B observed in 2022. And while I could wax on about the M&A activity observed this quarter for hours, I will end with one final statistic of note: Despite the significantly increase total value in 2023, M&A deal volume was roughly equivalent in 2023 and 2022, with 81 and 76 deals respectively. This massive uptick in average deal value alludes to the size and profile of the acquirees, suggesting positive transaction momentum for the sector moving into 2024. In a similar vein, 2023 saw the greatest licensing deal activity observed over the past three years, both in terms of overall deal value and volume. While aggregate value was certainly boosted by a selection of large, high-profile licensing transactions such as Daiichi Sankyo and Merck’s ADC collaboration, the consistent relationship between value and volume may speak to these transactions serving as an alternative means to capitalization given the frosty state of capital markets (especially private). However, throughout 2023, licensing deals continue to be heavily backloaded, with total upfront consideration accounting for only ~18% of total deal value in Q4. One final interesting indicator for the current state of biopharma deal making is that aggregate licensing deal value for Ph 1 assets jumped ~3x from 2022 levels in 2023, potentially signifying a reversal in the bimodal preclinical / post-PoC deal distribution that characterized the 2022 landscape. That would make a good sign for early-stage biotech. Our Advice for the Current Market So, what is our best advice for the current market? While public biotech markets may be beginning to thaw, the limited IPO volume and restriction to late-stage approaches suggest that the improvement in circumstances and capital access is limited to a subset of late-stage, large biotechs (at least for now). There are earlier stage biotechs in the IPO queue, which could change this trend. Our bet is that these will be one offs and early-stage companies will continue to struggle with an IPO financing. Access to capital for earlier stage, private biotech may continue to be restricted although we believe that there will be an uptick in 2024. We’ve heard rumblings of a crossover market emerging given the backlog of private companies with maturing data and investors who have fund timelines where they will need to start deploying capital. Unfortunately, investors who can choose to invest publicly or privately have largely shifted public. That reversal will need to occur concurrent with an uptick in IPOs. Fortunately, the increase in licensing volume and value especially at phase 1 suggests that now more than ever, monetizing undercapitalized programs represents a key tool to secure non-dilutive funding to advance core programs and platform development. Such partnerships have the added benefit of providing external validation that may become instrumental to securing fundraising, whether public or private, as market conditions improve. For private companies with investors who are tired or public companies who have traded below cash for an extended period, it is important for both their investors and management to be objective about whether the company can and should exist as an independent entity or whether pursuing alternatives business combinations represents the best strategy, especially as larger biopharmas continue to transition into ‘buy mode’. One of the best indicators from JPMorgan was the increase in transactions for companies that did not have randomized controlled phase 2b or later data. The companies that get bought before this data point encourages capital formation and overall industry positivity. To capitalize on this emerging trend and based on our experience, exit value is maximized by making informed strategic decisions with sufficient runway to accomplish the desirable outcome, though I fully recognize the difficulty of making such a call. However, while the tides may seem to be turning based on the XBI and large-cap M&A deals, I reiterate my belief that it may be a little while until the top-down improvements in macro conditions lift the boats of the smaller public and private biotechs, and thus companies must plan accordingly. 2024 will absolutely be a better year than 2023 and I share the enthusiasm from many at JPM because of the shifting macro winds and increase in M&A, especially pre-POC. That said, this year will be non-linear, could be very bumpy and will not be easy. When we’re writing our market conditions for 2024 at the end of the year, I predict more IPOs, more crossovers, similar M&A and a general uptrend that might be hard to see without zooming out on the year. The good times are far from back but we’ve passed the bottom of the market. This from someone who has been bearish on the record for 3 years. As evidenced by the significant approvals seen in the past year, the pace of innovation continues to be driven by strong companies advancing differentiated technologies, emphasizing the importance of pursuing robust science that addresses patient unmet needs. The beginnings of a thaw observed over the past quarter is a good reminder that e

On this episode of Biotalk, Locust Walk‘s Geoff Meyerson welcomes Soufiane Aboulhouda, Co-Founder and Chairman of the Board of Nucleate, a global non-profit dedicated to empowering future biotech leaders through education and fostering innovation in life sciences companies. The discussion explores Soufiane’s journey into early-stage biotech and delves into the founding story of Nucleate, highlighting the organization’s mission and its pivotal role in shaping the biotech landscape. Soufiane, who served as President of Nucleate for over 5 years, shares valuable lessons learned during his tenure. Listeners also gain insights into Soufiane’s current work at the Wyss Institute under George Church, exploring the intricacies of his research in the lab. The episode concludes with Soufiane addressing the biggest challenges facing the biotech industry and Nucleate, expressing optimism for the organization’s future. The positive note of the conversation emphasizes the reasons behind Soufiane ‘s confidence in the promising future of Nucleate. We invite you to tune in to this compelling discussion on biotech, education, and innovation. Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify.    Timestamps:   1:21: To kick things off, I’d love for you to provide our audience with some background as to what led you to your initial exploration of early-stage biotech?  5:15: What is the founding story of behind Nucleate? What you’re trying to solve and how did it come about   8:56: You also served as President of Nucleate for over 5 years. What lessons have you learned throughout your time as president?  16:04: You currently work at the Wyss Institute under George Church. Tell us more about your work in that lab.   19:37: In terms of Nucleate as an organizations, where do you operate, how many members do you have?  22:58: How has the biotech market downturn impacted Nucleate? Your lab? Your research?  26:48: At Locust Walk, we believe that dislocations are a great way to spot opportunity.  What would you say are the kinds of opportunities that are revealing themselves to you as the industry goes through a little bit of a struggle?    28:54: To wrap up a great conversation, do you believe there is a biggest issue currently facing the industry, or potentially impacting Nucleate?  30:44: Why are you optimistic about the future of Nucleate? 

On this episode of Biotalk, Locust Walk‘s Daniel Brog welcomes with Shehnaaz Suliman, M.D., CEO of ReCode Therapeutics, a clinical-stage genetic medicines company using its selective organ targeting lipid nanoparticle platform to power the next wave of mRNA and gene correction therapeutics. With over 25 years of experience, Shehnaaz brings a multifaceted perspective to the discussion. She has held diverse roles, from practicing physician to dealmaker, and now leads the charge at ReCode. Join us as we delve into the distinctive qualities that set ReCode apart and to discover the groundbreaking technology behind their selective organ targeting lipid nanoparticle platform, known as SORT. As a seasoned Biotech CEO and respected board member, Shehnaaz offers insights into what qualities make a great board member and why diversity is crucial in shaping the future of biotech leadership. We’ll explore the role of boards in promoting diversity and address the barriers that persist in achieving this essential goal within the biotech industry. We invite you to tune in to this engaging podcast episode. Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify.    Timestamps:   1:08: To kick things off, I’d love for you to provide our audience with some background as to what led you to your initial exploration of biotech? 5:23: You mentioned a keen interest in the activism side of things. Coming from your physician background in South Africa, alongside deal making, how you have incorporated activism throughout your career? 7:51: Recode is doing innovative work with targeted lipid nanoparticle platform SORT. Tell us more about the platform and what makes ReCode’s approach so unique. 14:14: Your SORT platform can target several potential organs. How did you select the lung for your lead assets? 19:49: Within the field of RNA therapeutics and outside of delivery, are there other technologies that you think will play the most significant role in moving this space forward? 28:38: As you look at where Recode stands today, what are you most excited about looking forward? 30:40: How has the biotech market downturn impacted your business and how you think about prioritizing next steps for the company? 33:58: You recently closed a Series B financing – congratulations! The current macro biotech environment has been challenging, especially for earlier stage platform companies. What was critical to success in your most recent fundraise? 41:00: Was there a particular reason ReCode decided to deprioritize some of the CNS programs, at least for your own internal development and focus on those as partnering opportunities? 42:25: You are an experienced Biotech CEO, board member and of Women in Bio’s Board Ready Program. What qualities do you think make a good board member? Why is it important to focus diversity when shaping board composition? 51:01: What would you say are the major barriers that you see in terms of increasing diversity in the biotech industry and at the leadership level? 56:25: What is your actionable advice to minority groups as they advance their education and careers in the life sciences?

On this episode of Biotalk, Locust Walk‘s Geoff Meyerson welcomes Errik Anderson, CEO and Founder of Alloy Therapeutics, to the podcast. Alloy is a trailblazing drug-discovery company, bringing collaborative platforms and services to the biotech world, making cutting-edge biologics accessible to everyone, from academia and small biotechs to major pharmaceutical companies. Errik, with a unique blend of entrepreneurship, venture capital, and a passion for rugby, shares his journey from Adimab to founding Alloy, highlighting Alloy’s distinctiveness in biotech. He also discusses Alloy’s future plans and their excitement about the anticlastic ASO technology. During the conversation, Errik explores the funding landscape for later innovations, its impact on Alloy’s business, and his prognosis for the short to intermediate-term future of the industry. We invite you to tune in to this engaging podcast episode. Subscribe or follow Biotalk on Apple Podcasts | Spotify.    Timestamps:   1:25: What led you to your initial exploration of early stage biotech? 2:55: Can you share a bit about your beginnings in your professional career and, what sparked your entrepreneurial spirit? 7:29: Can you provide the backstory of Adimab and how that led into Alloy? 13:25: What’s the exit for an Adimab shareholder or Alloy shareholder if it is a forever company? 24:43: You recently launched the anticlastic ASO technology platform. Can you tell us more about this, why you are excited by it, and your plans? 40:21: How do you avoid 82VS competing with your typical arms-length licensing clients? 45:11: How do you think about later innovations being funded, how does it impact your business and what is your prognosis for short to intermediate-term future?