Capital Creek Partners - 3in10

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down two key market themes for the week. Scott connects the dots across ECRI's future inflation gauge, March core PCE, and ISM prices paid, arguing a cyclical upturn in inflation was in place well before the Iran war and that the Fed has quietly moved to neutrality for 2026. He then walks through Exxon's first quarter earnings beat and management's commentary on oil, refining, and chemicals, crediting CEO Darren Woods with a multi-year turnaround in returns, free cash flow, and shareholder value.

In this special edition episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Britt Harris, former CIO of UTIMCO and founder of Titans of Investing, to discuss the seven storms reshaping the investment landscape. Scott and Britt begin by framing why the post-2020 era breaks from the four-decade regime that preceded it. Britt then walks through the seven storms — debt, China, climate, AI, world order, millennials, and corporate concentration — highlighting how sovereign-scale companies and passive ownership are reshaping capitalism. Britt also discusses what the new regime means for allocators, noting that the reflationary environment will reward hard assets and independent thinkers. Lastly, Britt reflects on four decades in the industry, reiterating the importance of emotional stability and being prepared for the bear markets we know are coming.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott recounts the Washington consensus from the IMF/World Bank Meetings, highlighting stagflation fears, a broken transatlantic alliance, an ascendant China, and near-universal belief that the dollar is a short. He then summarizes the conference's favorite trades — long EM assets, long commodities and gold, short treasuries, and short the dollar — noting his own discomfort with how crowded they've become. Lastly, Scott highlights the contrarian signals worth watching, including JP Morgan's call that the Fed's next move is a hike.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott assesses the equity market's sharp relief rally on Iran deescalation, noting that while he remains tactically cautious from his March 4th "As Long As It Takes" call, this week's price action held in a way that demands attention ahead of Saturday's negotiations. He then delves into February core PCE and March CPI, reiterating that inflation is embedded at 3% and on track to miss the Fed's target for a sixth consecutive year. Lastly, Scott previews first quarter earnings, highlighting financials as the critical tell for whether market leadership is finally broadening.

In this episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, examines the hidden economic costs of the Iran war, including the slowdown in Middle Eastern capital flows and reduced foreign demand for U.S. securities. He then breaks down the latest ISM Manufacturing numbers and what they reveal about rising price pressures beneath the headline strength. Finally, Scott discusses the implications if the U.S. disengages without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and why that scenario could prolong higher oil prices, elevated yields, and continued pressure on risk assets.

In this episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton provides an update on the Iran war and the battle over the Strait of Hormuz, outlining why sustained energy disruption keeps pressure on global risk assets. He then breaks down the “three bullets to the brain” for markets: tightening financial conditions, rising recession odds, and geopolitical shock. Finally, Scott explains why commodities are leading in 2026 and how the supercycle may be shifting from precious metals to energy.

In this episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, provides updated analysis on the escalating war in Iran and its implications for energy markets and global risk assets. He discusses the February PPI report, which surprised to the upside and reinforces a developing uptrend in inflation. Finally, Scott shares his takeaways from the latest Fed meeting, where policymakers held rates steady amid rising inflation risks and growing uncertainty around growth. He outlines why energy prices, inflation pressures, and constrained Fed flexibility create a more challenging backdrop for equities.

In this episode of Three in 10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, focuses on the escalating war in Iran and its implications for global markets. Scott explains why the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of oil flows could represent a major economic shock that investors may be underestimating. He outlines the potential for significantly higher oil prices and why that scenario would pressure both stocks and bonds. Scott concludes with a more cautious near-term outlook for risk assets as geopolitical uncertainty rises.

In this special edition of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Drew McKnight, Co-CEO of Fortress Investment Group, for a discussion on private credit markets and the changing investment landscape. The conversation explores the growth of private credit, the role it plays as banks retreat from lending, and why strong underwriting and asset management matter in today’s environment. They also discuss parallels between the internet boom of the late 1990s and the current surge in AI investment. McKnight shares how Fortress evaluates risk across software, consumer lending, and energy while preparing for market volatility and future opportunities.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with an analysis of markets, reviewing the complex landscape that geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and AI create as investors move capital into different investments. Additionally, Scott reviews the ongoing challenges in crypto markets as Bitcoin has been pummeled recently. He believes that a diversified allocation into Bitcoin and gold could be beneficial. Lastly, Scott mentions Dell's recently reported earnings, highlighting the stellar performance and shareholder friendly practices of the company.

In this special edition of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Dr. William Inboden, Executive Vice President and Provost at UT Austin, for a wide-ranging discussion on geopolitics and higher education. Dr. Inboden addresses the erosion of public trust in American universities and the steps needed to restore credibility and accountability. The conversation explores the importance of federal research funding and the role universities play in preserving America’s technological edge amid rising competition with China. They examine whether the United States is entering a new world order and what shifting global dynamics mean for American leadership. The discussion also turns to mounting tensions with Iran and the potential implications for regional stability and global markets. Drawing on his experience as a historian of the Cold War and former National Security Council official, Dr. Inboden offers perspective on how past great-power competition informs today’s challenges.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with the growing leadership shift toward industrials, materials, energy, and global cyclicals. What he calls the “revenge of the old economy” as international markets and value sectors outperform large-cap U.S. technology. Next, he discusses Japan’s political transition and the rise of its new prime minister, outlining the implications for defense spending, fiscal policy, the yen, and broader Asian markets. To tie it all together, Scott analyzes this week’s non-farm payrolls and CPI data, explaining why the economy remains in a disinflationary boom and what that means for bonds, equities, and continued sector rotation.

In this special edition 3in10 episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, delivers the firm’s 2026 Strategy Outlook. Based on six weeks of research and the most important charts from the report, Scott explains why economic growth remains stronger than consensus, why the U.S. dollar is entering a prolonged downtrend, and how this environment is driving a broad rotation across global equities, commodities, fixed income, and alternative investments. Scott concludes with Capital Creek’s key portfolio themes for navigating a tougher but opportunity-rich investment landscape in 2026. The full 2026 Investment Outlook report is available in following the link: https://www.capitalcreek.com/s/2026-Investment-Outlook-taty.pdf

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with an overview of his dollar thesis, stating that he believes that the dollar has begun its next leg downward due to many reasons. Next, he discusses the Fed's decision at the January meeting to keep rates steady in light of labor market data and inflation. To tie it all together, Scott analyzes President Trump's choice of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair and the implications this brings for markets, interest rates, and the Fed.

In this special edition episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Doug Terreson, former Head of Global Energy at Morgan Stanley, to discuss oil markets, geopolitics, and the macro-outlook. Scott and Doug begin by reviewing Doug’s career in energy and his perspective on current oil market fundamentals, including supply-demand imbalances and OPEC’s recent production decisions. They then turn to Venezuela and Iran, where Doug shares firsthand insight into production declines, regime risk, and the challenges of restoring meaningful output. Lastly, Scott and Doug connect oil prices to inflation, interest rates, and financial markets and discuss what this backdrop could mean for energy equities and global assets heading into 2026.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott reviews the recent case brought against Jerome Powell and the implications it has for global markets; Scott remarks about how markets have viewed this as political rather than substantive. Additionally, Scott analyzes credit spreads and bank earnings, concluding that credit markets will likely have large issuances in the near term while spreads have returned to previous lows. Lastly, Scott discusses the potential for an Iranian regime change and what it means for the global economy, oil, and commodities.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with a look at the United States' recent actions in Venezuela. He highlights the implications for oil and how Latin American markets are performing solidly in the new year. Additionally, Scott analyzes the December Non-Farm Payroll numbers, noting a labor market that continues to struggle while the U.S economy is booming. Lastly, Scott recounts the first week of trading in 2026 with foreign developed and emerging markets outperforming the S&P 500.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with a report on cybersecurity and the challenge this presents in the coming year as firms and democratic nations face the reality of increasing attacks. Scott then shifts to the ongoing housing recession with recent data indicating disinflation in 2025 for housing. Scott believes there might be a positive future in sight for this area of the economy. Lastly, Scott recounts 2025, noting benefits from diversifying into international markets, strong metals performance, and changes in the dollar, Brent oil, and Bitcoin.

In this special edition episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo, to discuss various macroeconomic topics. Scott and Torsten begin by analyzing inflation and the Fed's mandate; naturally, they follow up this discussion with an overview of the labor market and their thoughts on immigration's effects. Scott and Torsten also discuss the AI trend and private credit's misconceptions as many people misunderstand the asset class. Lastly, Scott and Torsten highlight the U.S. dollar's performance and the opportunities that it poses moving into the new year.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with Howard Marks' piece on the potential of an AI bubble; Scott highlights the need to be selective especially given excessive capital expenditures. Additionally, he discusses a recent report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute about China's dominance over the U.S. and the E.U. in technology. From the analysis, we learn that significant investments need to be made in the U.S. while investors in China might be concerned about potential returns. Lastly, Scott discusses Micron's Q1 2026 earnings; with tight memory supply, Micron solidly beat estimates while incorporating AI into workflows to increase productivity.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott dives into the Fed's December meeting where benchmark rates were cut by 25 basis points. Scott looks into the Fed's economic projections and gives his thoughts on the future. Additionally, he discusses the deregulation of bank lending, allowing larger banks to step into the private credit space. Scott comments that this may lead to spread compression as more players compete. Lastly, Scott analyzes Oracle's Q2 2026 earnings and the negative cash flow implications that have resulted from excessive AI capital expenditures. He believes that companies will learn from this excess.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott analyzes the ADP jobs data in light of the blackout on government data. He notes the sharp decline in small business employment, supporting a Fed rate cut. Additionally, Scott discusses the implications of rising Japanese bond yields as investors return capital to domestic markets. Lastly, he delves into China's targeted fiscal stimulus, which will likely support consumers, the Chinese property market, and the ongoing bull market.

In this special edition episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Andy Xie, an independent China economist and former economist at Morgan Stanley, to discuss U.S. China relations and the future of the Chinese Economy. Scott and Andy begin by reviewing the recent U.S. China trade deal and its implications for future trade relations. Andy highlights China's deep roots in technological development, noting how China's exports are making other countries more productive and how competition breeds innovation, especially when American exports are cut off from Chinese markets. Andy discusses the relative cheapness of Chinese markets especially with China's underappreciated AI and tech products. Lastly, Andy reiterates the strength of the Chinese economy, stating that time will show the profits of Chinese corporations.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott reviews his recently released report on credit, Digging in the Credit Trenches. After a month of grassroots research, Scott discusses how credit markets are showing many crosswinds and how good credit managers can navigate difficult markets to find opportunities. Additionally, he analyzes the retail earnings data that Target, Home Depot, and Walmart provided in their earnings reports. It appears that the low-income consumers continues to struggle. Lastly, Scott delves into the recent sell-off in technology stocks over the past 17 trading days. Technology stocks are being punished for excessive capital expenditures; however, this might present a buying opportunity.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott analyzes November markets, noting how artificial intelligence hopes have turned into fears. Job concerns, rate cut bets, tariffs, deficits, and affordability are creating a "Mount Everest of worry." Additionally, he recaps the NFIB Small Business report and discusses how small businesses are less optimistic than before. Lastly, Scott delves into CoreWeave's earnings report, highlighting the company's leveraged play on AI. With large backlogs and aggressive expansion, Scott believes CoreWeave will continue to be volatile.

In this special edition episode of 3in10, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, sits down with Michael Parekh, a technology strategist and former partner at Goldman Sachs, to discuss the importance and future of AI. Scott and Michael discuss the different technology waves from the 1980s onwards, focusing on the personal computer, smartphones, and now AI. Michael highlights the importance of personal computers and how today's CEOs have embraced the lessons of the past to scale AI and produce flywheel effects for highly profitable corporations. Lastly, Michael highlights the future of AI, namely the fact that we are in the "mainframe" stage of AI development and how AI will eventually go mobile and become more powerful. Scott and Michael analyze the current AI market, seeing long term growth.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott shares his perspective on the evolving balance between equity and credit as investors shift toward higher-quality assets. He discusses how rising geopolitical risks and persistent inflation are influencing institutional positioning. Additionally, Scott examines recent data from ISM and the University of Michigan, offering his take on what it signals for consumer confidence and growth. Lastly, he touches on digital assets and liquidity conditions, exploring whether the recent Bitcoin correction marks a broader turning point or simply a pause within an ongoing bull market.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott recaps and analyzes the Fed's October meeting, noting shifting priorities towards the labor markets and increasing liquidity. He then shifts towards this week's big tech earnings with Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. These companies have all spent significant money on capex with some being rewarded this week while others are punished. Lastly, Scott touches on the U.S. China trade talks and the ongoing government shutdown.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott discusses his research into credit over the past couple of weeks as concerns build over credit quality. He highlights his insights and faith in credit. Additionally, he analyzes 3M's Q3 2025 earnings and its implications for the global economy; notably, foreign markets are outperforming. Lastly, Scott touches on CPI and PMI data. With a lack of data recently, these points give renewed confidence in Fed rate cuts and financial markets.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott discusses the market's current positioning in a potential bubble and how investors can position themselves. Additionally, he highlights J.P. Morgan's stellar earnings, strong growth, and revelations for credit markets. Lastly, Scott analyzes the Fortress Credit Conference and its implications for credit.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down one key market theme for the week. Scott discusses gold breaking $4,000 per ounce, its outperformance in light of structural government debt, and the potential for a bubble in this hard asset.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. First, whether the government shutdown really matters for the economy or markets, with history suggesting recent ones haven’t. Second, how to gauge labor market strength without non-farm payrolls, using ADP employment data and September ISM surveys instead. Third, a look at twin bankruptcies (Tricolor and First Brands) to assess whether there are deeper issues in credit markets.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott recaps the Capital Creek Partners Investor Conference and summarizes his takeaways on AI, capital expenditures, and financing for AI infrastructure. Additionally, Scott analyzes the new homes sales data in light of falling mortgage rates and a positive and surprising print for August. Lastly, he delves into Core PCE data, noting his expectations for inflation to remain between 2% and 4% in the future despite Fed forecasts.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott delves into the retail sales data, noting strong consumer spending in light of a weakening labor market. Additionally, he analyzes the Fed's rate cut and meeting, talking about the contradictory release and continued decline in perceived Fed independence. Lastly, Scott reiterates his belief in the dollar's continued devaluation in light of rate cuts, tariffs, and Fed credibility.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott analyzes the conditions such as momentum, banking deregulation, and AI that could be driving a new equity bubble. He then recounts Oracle, Synopsys, and Adobe earnings, noting the positive impact that AI continues to have for earnings growth and performance. Lastly, Scott summarizes his thoughts on the UMichigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations for the coming years, noting structural reasons for higher inflation.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott analyzes the recently released August payrolls numbers, noticing a stalling labor market and the opportunity for more rate cuts this year. Additionally, he summarizes the takeaways from a booming Broadcom and the success of the company in the light of AI. Lastly, Scott delves into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the potential threat that China poses.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down Powell’s Jackson Hole speech pointing to a September rate cut but lingering stagflation risks, reviews muted retail earnings from Home Depot, Target, and Walmart, and highlights stronger-than-expected PMI data showing resilient demand and rising price pressures.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins by discussing the differing economic rebalancing strategies of China and the U.S. He then delves into John Deere's lackluster earnings and the struggling agricultural sector. Lastly, Scott takes a look forward at what is possibly in store for the Fed's meeting at Jackson Hole.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. Scott begins with strong productivity data for the second quarter; he discusses the potential AI can have for greater productivity in the future. Additionally, he analyzes Caterpillar's Q2 earnings disappointment, which was largely the result of higher than expected tariffs. Lastly, Scott finishes by discussing the importance of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' data.

In this special edition episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, hosts Joe Kalish, Chief Global Macro Strategist at Ned Davis Research Group. Joe is an expert with over 40 years of experience analyzing financial and economic trends. Topics discussed in this special edition include key economic trends such as the rebalancing of the U.S. economy through trade and industrial policy, the future trajectory of inflation and Fed policy, prospects for U.S. Treasury securities, the U.S. Dollar, and productivity gains from AI.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. He analyzes the evolving tariff headlines and potential ramifications for the markets. Scott discusses Meta's blowout second quarter earnings and the potential dominance Meta could have in AI. Lastly, he reviews the non-farm payrolls number, which indicate a steep softening in the labor markets and could move the Fed's hand in cutting rates.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. He discusses the struggling Chinese housing market and the rally in Chinese equities and bonds. Additionally, Scott analyzes D.R. Horton's Q3 2025 earnings beat and implications for the overall economy. Lastly, he explores the recent rally in commodities and the potential outperformance of silver, copper, and gold.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. He analyzes complacency and risks in Treasury markets while recognizing portfolio benefits of Treasurys. Additionally, Scott covers Bank of America's 2025 second quarter earnings and the positive economic data that it entailed. Lastly, he explores what the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index means for U.S. markets and inflation.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. He covers the One Big Beautiful Bill (OB3) and analyzes its costs and benefits for the U.S economy. Additionally, he discusses Delta Air Lines' recently announced earnings and the run up in its stock price. Lastly, Scott explores the recent highs of SPX and how tariffs and complacency might play a role.

In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. He covers new highs in U.S. markets and causes for the rally, analyzes the recent primary victory of Zohran Mamdani and the underlying implications, and explains the struggles of the U.S. housing market and why it might be an opportune time to invest.

In this episode Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week. He covers the Fed’s policy crossroads and its risk of falling behind the curve, assesses the implications of the Israel-Iran conflict on oil markets and global power dynamics, and explains why investors should focus on the retail sales control group rather than noisy headline numbers.

In this week’s 3in10, Capital Creek’s Chief Strategy Officer, Scott T. Slayton, CFA, breaks down the positive inflation data from this week, the reviving IPO market and possibilities of a bull market, and the challenges of the U.S. Dollar despite new conflicts.

In this week’s 3in10, Capital Creek’s Chief Strategy Officer, Scott T. Slayton, CFA, breaks down the MSCI All Country World Index reaching new highs, positive labor market news in the form of benign cooling, and the rally in Platinum and Silver prices.

In this week’s 3in10, Capital Creek’s Chief Strategy Officer, Scott T. Slayton, CFA, breaks down new tariff uncertainties caused by court decisions, inflation data from the PCE Index, and the intricate relationship between fiscal and trade deficits.

In this week’s 3in10, Capital Creek’s Chief Strategy Officer, Scott T. Slayton, CFA, breaks down the consequences of the Big Beautiful Bill, potential warning signs from the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index, and the continued decline of the U.S. Dollar.