Dairy Insights: Heard Mentality

YiFan Li and John Lancaster join me for a roundtable discussion of dairy demand in Asia, European milk production and the impact of the conflict in Iran.

New Zealand GDT prices for major dairy products are up anywhere from 17% to 32% since December while New Zealand milk production is running strong, what is driving this rally?

The U.S. dairy markets rallied in the lead up to the big IDFA conference. Dustin Winston and I were both at the conference and the sentiment was less bearish than expected but we did have a few bullish take-aways.

Dairy buyers and sellers from around the world gathered at Gulfood in Dubai last week. Vipin Kumar, StoneX Vice President of Middle East Dairy was there and shares what he heard.

Lumpy Skin Disease continues to spread in Europe, Bluetongue was recently found in Northern Ireland for the first time and bird flu was found in dairy cows for the first time in Wisconsin. Could these diseases suddenly slow milk production growth faster than the market is expecting?

We've seen sharp drops in dairy prices, is there any reason to be bullish right now? When will the market start to turn higher?

Market talk at Gulf Foods, one of the largest global food trade fairs, was mostly bearish, centered on when is the dairy market going to bottom out.

U.S. dairy farmers have been earning more and more of their income from the sale of calves and slaughter cows over the past 3 years. Gavin McPherson joins me to talk about what drove the cattle market to record high levels and what he makes of the 10% selloff we saw in the second half of October.

Dustin Winston was in Australia and Singapore and attended the SGX-NZX conference and talks about what he heard about milk production for New Zealand and Australia as well as Chinese demand.

StoneX has announced a new partnership to add dairy prices reported by Expana to StoneX Plus and launch OTC swaps that will settle to some of those prices. With demand for WPC and fat filled milk powder (FFMP) the industry has been looking for ways to manage the price risk with these products.

We held our annual EU outlook conference in Dublin Ireland last week and the sentiment was very bearish for the European dairy market. The supply side has received a lot of attention, but demand also seems to be softening. I talk to John Lancaster about the conference and supply and demand dynamics.

Summary: The CME spot butter price fell 17% during August hitting the lowest levels of 2025. I talk with Dave Kurzawski about the declines in butter and whether cheese prices are next.

Summary: We've seen OTC cheese and butter prices for the fourth quarter drop about 10% from their recent highs as milk production in Europe, and elsewhere, turns out better than expected and demand may be softening. Fearghal McCabe talks about the EU market and whether we'll see prices rebound as buyers come back from summer holidays.

GDT results last week were mixed with AMF prices up but butter prices down and WMP prices counter seasonally increasing. Nate Donnay talks with Niall Alsafi about GDT and what is driving the divergent price action.

We can now add Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) to the list of diseases impacting dairy cows in Europe along with Bluetongue and Foot and Mouth (FMD). John Lancaster shares details on the discovery of LSD in late June, the spread since then and what we should expect going forward.

CME spot cheese and butter prices have rallied almost 40 cents a pound and 30 cents a pound from their recent lows to their peaks last week. Dave Kurzawski joins me to talk about the market move and what is driving it.

We've seen a significant rally in U.S. spot cheese and future prices and some significant strength in deferred EU OTC prices. Desmond Strelzow joins me to talk about the EU market and I talk through the drivers behind the U.S. strength and where I think the market is going.

EEX butter futures have been trending a little lower, but every time they dip, buyers seem to show up. We've seen a similar pattern for cheese but EEX SMP has been on a straight trend lower. I talk to Fearghal McCabe about the EU markets and whether they can stay at a big premium to the U.S.

YiFan Li comes on to talk about the strength we've seen in GDT/SGX prices and NBS data suggesting milk production in China was up 1.7% during the first quarter.

This week I talk to Dave Kurzawski about the U.S. spot and futures markets and the impact that tariffs or threats of tariffs have had.

During March there were 2 new cases of FMD in Hungary and 5 new ones in Slovakia. Florian Hildebrand joins me to discuss the spread of FDM and what we know about the impacts on the dairy markets.

A second case of foot and mouth disease has been discovered in Europe and John Lancaster discusses what he saw and heard around weather and milk production in New Zealand and a partnership we have to bring a focus on margins and hedging to NZ dairy farmers.

We got a pulse check on global dairy demand with Gulfood and the ONIL tender last week. It's not time for the defibrillator yet, but things aren't great.

NFDM and SMP prices across the major dairy exporters were all lower this week. Alfredo Resendiz Rojo has been in contact with buyers and traders of NFDM in Mexico and gives his view of the market.

We've seen choppy but downward trending price action in EEX butter and SMP futures. Fearghal McCabe comes on to talk about what he is seeing in the EU dairy markets.

The annual IDFA Dairy Forum took place this week with record attendance and plenty of talk about the dairy markets. Kyle Schrad shares his take aways and thoughts on the recent rally in corn futures.

GDT prices were up this week, Chinese imports for December were stronger than expected and government statistics suggest Chinese milk production was down 9.1% in Q4. YiFan Li was in China two weeks ago and comes on to talk about it all.

Foot and Mouth Disease has been detected in Germany which has both supply and demand implications for the dairy markets globally. John Lancaster and Aurelien Houitte join me to talk about what we know and what the implications are.

Milk production in California during November was down 9.2% from last year which was a record decline. Dave Kurzawski talks about impacts for the markets and some big picture predictions for 2025.

Milk production in Europe is growing again, both year-over-year and seasonally while buyers are stepping away from the market for the year-end holidays. Desmond Strelzow talks about the weakness we're seeing across most dairy prices in Europe right now.

Will GDT WMP break the $4,000 mark? YiFan Li discusses the surprising GDT Event results and we talk about the ONIL and Vinamilk tenders that just wrapped up.

Alfredo Resendiz-Rojo leads our efforts to develop dairy risk management in Latin America. This week he comes on the podcast to talk about Brazil and what he is hearing about Mexican demand for NFDM.

SIAL is one of the biggest food trade shows in Europe and just wrapped up. In this episode, I talk with Aureilien Houitte from our team who attended SIAL and talked with dairy buyers and sellers there.

Dustin Winston, Commodity Market Analyst on the dairy team, spent a few weeks traveling around Australia and attending the SGX dairy conference in Singapore. He shares what he heard on AU/NZ milk production and product mix as well as Chinese import demand.

Market sentiment at the SGX dairy conference was mixed. Our newest team member, Jeanette Tan, from our Singapore office shares what she heard from the suppliers, traders and buyers at the conference.

EU and U.S. butter prices have collapsed, although EU prices have rallied back a bit. I talk with Desmond Strelzow from the Dublin office about what is driving the butter market and what he is seeing for price movements in other EU dairy commodities.

CME spot barrels made a new record high at $2.6225/lb. ($5,780/MT) and U.S. milk production remains weak with bird flu now spreading through the dairy herd in California. I talk to Dave Kurzawski about what we expect for cheese prices through the end of the year.

We had record attendance at our European Dairy Market Outlook & Risk Management Forum in Dublin Ireland last week. I talk with John Lancaster about what we learned from talking to the attendees about Bluetongue and the butter market.

The global financial markets were looking scary Monday, but what are the implications for the real economy and dairy demand?

Bluetongue disease is hitting dairy farms in the Netherlands, Germany, France and Belgium and reducing milk production. Florian Hildebrand shares what he is hearing about the spread of the disease and the impact it is having on farmers and processors.

The EEX is changing the contract specification for their liquid milk futures contract which could lead to more liquidity across the European dairy contracts as well as offering more transparency around the value of milk and making it easier for farmers and cooperatives to lock in prices for milk.

U.S. milk production was weaker than expected in June, will the supply side story be enough to push dairy prices to new highs this year?

Prices at the GlobalDairyTrade auction (GDT) were better than expected this week and milk production growth in China has slowed down, what is there to be bearish about?

Feed costs like corn and soybeans are hitting multi-year lows which is boosting profitability for U.S. dairy farmers, will we get stronger milk production in coming months?

Dairy prices at the GDT Event were down a surprising 6.9% this week which is helping to feed the bearish sentiment in the EU dairy market.

U.S. milk production for May was weaker than forecast and U.S. cheese and butter stocks for May were also weaker than expected. Nate Donnay and Dave Kurzawski talk about the reports and expectations going forward.