Bellline | Market Briefs

Into tomorrow: CPI (Jan) is the force to carry forward. Does today's positioning hold overnight or unwind at tomorrow's open? Key themes into the close: 1. Producer Price Index YoY (Jan) at 10:00am 2. Residential Property Prices YoY (Dec) at 11:00am 3. Current Account (Q4) at 10:20am 4. Retail Sales MoM (Dec) at 11:00am 5. 10-Year Bund Auction at 10:30am Regime: Here's how we're reading the tape at the close: It was a CPI day — that was the main event — and we also had PPI in the mix. Curve is steepening — the long end is repricing, and that usually means something's shifting. futures data isn't in yet. Bellline | The Closing Brief Mark the close. Subscribe for clarity, bell to bell.

Rest of session — CPI (Jan): does the afternoon confirm the morning reaction or does positioning shift into the close? Key themes at midday: 1. Producer Price Index YoY (Jan) at 10:00am 2. Residential Property Prices YoY (Dec) at 11:00am 3. Current Account (Q4) at 10:20am 4. Retail Sales MoM (Dec) at 11:00am 5. 10-Year Bund Auction at 10:30am Regime: Here's where we stand at the midpoint of the session: CPI was the main event — the initial reaction is in, and we've still got PPI to work through. Curve is steepening — the long end is repricing, and that usually means something's shifting. the tape is chopping around — no clear direction. Bellline | The Midday Brief Check the tape. Subscribe for clarity, bell to bell.

Into tomorrow: Inflation Rate MoM (Jan) is the force to carry forward. Does today's positioning hold overnight or unwind at tomorrow's open? Key themes into the close: 1. Exports YoY (Jan) at 11:50pm 2. Inflation Rate MoM (Jan) at 10:15am 3. ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Feb) at 10:00am 4. Economic Sentiment (Feb) at 10:00am 5. ZEW Current Conditions (Feb) at 10:00am Regime: Here's how we're reading the tape at the close: Today was all about CPI and CPI — big data day and the tape showed it. Curve is steepening — the long end is repricing, and that usually means something's shifting. futures data isn't in yet. VIX is sitting above 20 at 20 — not panicky but the market is on alert. Bellline | The Closing Brief Mark the close. Subscribe for clarity, bell to bell.

Rest of session — Inflation Rate MoM (Jan): does the afternoon confirm the morning reaction or does positioning shift into the close? Key themes at midday: 1. Inflation Rate MoM (Jan) at 10:15am 2. Economic Sentiment (Feb) at 10:00am 3. ZEW Current Conditions (Feb) at 10:00am 4. ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Feb) at 10:00am 5. Balance of Trade (Jan) at 10:00am Regime: Here's where we stand at the midpoint of the session: It's been a CPI and CPI day — the prints are in and the tape is still digesting. Curve is steepening — the long end is repricing, and that usually means something's shifting. the tape is chopping around — no clear direction. VIX is sitting above 20 at 21 — not panicky but the market is on alert. Bellline | The Midday Brief Check the tape. Subscribe for clarity, bell to bell.

10:15am — Inflation Rate MoM (Jan): this is the single print that could redefine today's regime. Watch the 5-minute cross-asset reaction for conviction. Key themes into the open: 1. Inflation Rate MoM (Jan) at 10:15am 2. Economic Sentiment (Feb) at 10:00am 3. ZEW Current Conditions (Feb) at 10:00am 4. ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Feb) at 10:00am 5. Balance of Trade (Jan) at 10:00am Regime: Here's how we're reading the setup this morning: Today is all about CPI and CPI — big data day. Curve is steepening — the long end is repricing, and that usually means something's shifting. futures are basically flat — nobody wants to commit ahead of the data. VIX is sitting above 20 at 21 — not panicky but the market is on alert. Bellline | The Premarket Brief Set the tone. Subscribe for clarity, bell to bell.

Into Tuesday: GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q4) is the force to carry forward. Does today's positioning hold overnight or unwind at Tuesday's open? Key themes into the close: 1. Unemployment Rate (Jan) at 11:00pm 2. Interest Rate Decision at 10:30am 3. GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q4) at 10:00am 4. Inflation Rate MoM (Dec) at 10:00am 5. Employment Change QoQ (Q4) at 10:00am Regime: Here's how we're reading the tape at the close: Today was all about GDP and GDP — big data day and the tape showed it. Curve is steepening — the long end is repricing, and that usually means something's shifting. the tape went basically nowhere — a chop session. VIX is sitting above 20 at 21 — not panicky but the market is on alert. Bellline | The Closing Brief Mark the close. Subscribe for clarity, bell to bell.

Here’s what’s moved since the opening bell. Check the tape. 📊 WHAT’S MOVING AT MIDDAY 1. Unemployment Rate (Jan) 2. GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q4) 3. Inflation Rate YoY (Dec) 📺 Bellline | The Midday Brief Daily market analysis at 12:00 PM ET. Check the tape. 🔔 Subscribe for premarket, midday, and closing coverage. Subscribe for clarity, bell to bell.

10:00am — GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q4): this is the single print that could redefine today's regime. Watch the 5-minute cross-asset reaction for conviction. Key themes into the open: 1. GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q4) at 10:00am 2. Inflation Rate YoY (Dec) at 10:00am 3. Unemployment Rate (Jan) at 11:00pm 4. Employment Change YoY (Q4) at 10:00am 5. Interest Rate Decision (Feb) at 10:30am Regime: macro-driven, rates-sensitive, mixed tape into the open, VIX 20.8 (caution), loose financial conditions (NFCI -0.56). Bellline | The Premarket Brief Daily market analysis before the opening bell. Subscribe for clarity, bell to bell.