Conflicts of Interest

As Sudan’s war enters its fourth year, the conflict is not fading — it is evolving, driven by shifting alliances, war economies, and regional opportunism that could reshape the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. While global attention is fixed elsewhere, the forces sustaining this war, from Gulf rivalries to cross-border militia networks, are evolving in ways that extend instability far beyond Sudan’s borders.In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED Senior Research Assistant Nohad Eltayeb unpack the drivers of this new phase of war: the UAE’s role in RSF supply routes and political pressure on SAF, how Chad’s border closure has driven up RSF transport and fuel costs, militia networks stretching toward Niger, and how fractured loyalties and fluid alliances are entrenching long-term conflict fragmentation.Can a war built on shifting alliances, militia economies, and foreign patrons end through negotiation — or does fragmentation become the next phase of conflict?For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

An assassination attempt on the US president.A surge of coordinated attacks in Mali.Rising violence in Chad.Continued fighting in Lebanon.As the Iran war reaches 60 days, what’s emerging isn’t a clear path forward, but a global landscape shaped by distraction, opportunism, and escalation. While attention remains fixed on Iran, violence elsewhere is accelerating — often with far less scrutiny.In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the significant developments over the last 48 hours alone - and the dynamics driving this moment — from stalled negotiations and economic pressure in Iran, to the resurgence of conflict across the Sahel and the Middle East.The question isn’t just whether the Iran war will escalate — but how many other conflicts already are.For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

JNIM. Islamic State Sahel Province. Boko Haram.These are the groups driving a surge in violence across the Sahel—now the world’s deadliest region for terrorism.Across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, attacks are escalating at a pace that outstrips every other region globally. Coups, foreign troop withdrawals, and weakening state control have created space for militant groups to expand, adapt, and entrench themselves across vast areas of the region.In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by Sahel expert Heni Nsaibia to unpack how the Sahel became the global epicentre of terrorism. Drawing on ACLED data and regional expertise, they break down the strategies of these groups, the role of military-led governments, and the local dynamics fuelling the spread of violence.The question isn’t just why the Sahel has become so deadly—but how far this instability could spread, and what it means for global security.For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

Six weeks into the Iran conflict, the tides are shifting rapidly—and the stakes could not be higher. As the U.S. and Israel escalate their military posture, threatening to impose a naval blockade on Iran, a new chapter in regional power plays is unfolding—one that could redefine control over the Strait of Hormuz and the entire Persian Gulf. In this episode of Conflict of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED expert Bassel Doueik delve into the decisions fueling Iran’s vulnerability, the implications of the U.S. blockade, and Israel's asymmetric warfare tactics. Drawing on ACLED data and regional expertise, they break down the complex web of regional actors, from Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon to the Saudi and Gulf states' subtle balancing act, and the economic chokehold designed to weaken Iran from within.The question isn't just what happens next, but how these strategic moves could tip the balance of power and reshape alliances for years to come. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

A ceasefire has been announced in the Iran war — but is this really de-escalation, or a strategic defeat for the United States and its allies?In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills break down the fragile Iran ceasefire, the unanswered questions around the deal, and why control of the Strait of Hormuz could leave Tehran in a stronger position than before.They unpack what the reported terms may mean for Iran’s nuclear programme, Gulf security, Israel’s position, Lebanon, Hezbollah, oil markets, and the wider regional balance of power. With details still unclear and violence still threatening to continue, the bigger question is whether this is peace or just the end of one phase of the war.For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

President Trump said the Iran war objectives ‘near completion’ in a televised speech last night - But what does that actually mean?In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh unpacks the latest developments in the Iran war with ACLED’s Media Manager, Bron Mills — from Iran’s leverage over key shipping routes to the limits of Israel’s decapitation strategy.They also explore how the conflict is reshaping global dynamics, with ripple effects reaching Russia and Ukraine, energy markets, and the fragile political landscape of the Horn of Africa.With no clear endgame in sight, the bigger question remains: what would victory even look like?For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

The Iran war took another turn this weekend as Yemen’s Houthi movement officially entered the conflict, launching missile attacks against Israel and outlining new red lines that could pull more actors into the fight.In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED's Yemen expert Dr Luca Nevola to unpack what the Houthis’ decision means for the region. Why did they intervene now after weeks of restraint? Why target Israel instead of the Red Sea? And what does their strategy reveal about the wider “Axis of Resistance”?They also explore the war's growing complexity — from Hezbollah’s role and Gulf state calculations to the escalating contest over the Strait of Hormuz and the risk that instability spreads further across the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.As new fronts emerge and strategic red lines are drawn, the question is no longer just how this war began, but how far it could spread.For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

One month into the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the focus is often on the battlefield. But wars rarely stay confined to one region.In this special extended edition of Conflicts of Interest, ACLED founder and CEO Clionadh Raleigh brings together regional experts from across the organisation to examine how the conflict is already reshaping dynamics far beyond the Middle East.From Lebanon and Iraq to the Gulf and beyond, the panel explores how the war is spreading through alliances, militias, political networks, and economic pressures, and where new risks could emerge if escalation continues.For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

As the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran approaches its first month, the question many analysts are now asking is whether the conflict could escalate beyond airstrikes. With thousands of U.S. troops moving into the region and growing speculation about operations around the Strait of Hormuz, talk of a possible ground invasion is no longer hypothetical. In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Clionadh Raleigh and Bron Mills unpack the headlines dominating the media: Trump’s ultimatums over the Strait of Hormuz, escalating strikes on energy infrastructure, and rumours of a new phase of the war. Could a ground operation actually happen — and if so, what would it look like?Drawing on ACLED’s real-time conflict data, they explore: why airstrikes alone may not achieve strategic objectives  what a limited ground operation in southern Iran or around key maritime chokepoints might involve  how control of global energy routes is shaping the war  and why the search for a “silver bullet” in modern conflicts almost always fails. They also examine the wider ripple effects already unfolding — from protests across the world to attacks and tensions emerging far beyond the Middle East.Because if this war has shown anything so far, it’s that escalation rarely follows the script — and there is no quick end in sight.For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

As the war around Iran continues to widen, attention is turning to the network of militias linked to Tehran across the region.In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED experts Dr Luca Nevola and Bassel Doueik to unpack what’s happening on two key fronts: Yemen and Lebanon.Why has Hezbollah escalated from Lebanon, while the Houthis appear to be holding back? What role do these groups play in Iran’s regional strategy, and how might their decisions shape the next phase of the conflict?Drawing on ACLED data and regional expertise, the team explains how these militias operate, what they are watching for, and what their next moves could mean for the wider war. For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

The Iran war is more than a regional conflict.In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Bron Mills and ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh examine how the war between Iran, Israel, and the United States is expanding beyond the battlefield, affecting global energy markets, regional alliances, oil supply and the wider international system.They discuss the growing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, where threats to shipping and oil supply are raising global economic concerns, as well as the continued strikes targeting military infrastructure inside Iran.The conversation explores:Why the conflict is widening rather than slowingHow disruptions to oil and shipping could affect the global economyWhy countries like the UK, Japan, Australia and the EU are hesitant to become involvedand what “success” actually looks like for the actors involved in the war.As the conflict spreads across the region and its consequences ripple outward, one thing is becoming clear: the impact of this war is being felt far beyond the Middle East.For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

As strikes between Iran, Israel, and the United States continue, the conflict is entering a dangerous new phase. What began as an exchange of missile attacks is quickly evolving into a broader regional confrontation with global consequences.In this emergency episode of Conflict of Interest, ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh and media relations manager Bron Mills break down what the first ten days of the war reveal about strategy, escalation, and the risks ahead.They discuss why this conflict has spread across more countries faster than almost any modern war, how missile and drone attrition could shape the battlefield, and what Iran’s new leadership means for the direction of the conflict. The conversation also explores the role of the IRGC, the limits of air power, and why running out of weapons may matter less than running out of political will.Finally, they tackle the question many people around the world are asking: Are we witnessing the early stages of a world war?For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

What happens when strikes, assassinations, and internal unrest collide inside one of the Middle East's most powerful states?In this emergency episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and ACLED Media Relations Manager Bron Mills break down the rapidly escalating crisis in Iran — from US and Israeli strikes on military infrastructure and senior leadership, to instability rippling into Iraq and Kurdish regions.As insurgent groups seize new opportunities and regional tensions deepen, Iran is also contending with a crisis within: economic hardship, political repression, and a frustrated public pushing from below.What role will militias play? How are global actors responding? And what does the next phase look like?Tune in to understand the forces behind one of the most consequential crises in the Middle East today.#Iran #MiddleEast #ConflictAnalysis #ACLED #ConflictsOfInterestFor more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch full episodes on YouTube.For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

What happens when the killing of Iran’s supreme leader sends shockwaves across an already volatile region?In this emergency episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh is joined by ACLED Media Relations Manager Bron Mills to unpack the explosive developments in Iran and the wider Middle East following this weekend’s strikes.What do leadership decapitation, regional retaliation, and rising tensions mean for the trajectory of conflict — and how far could the fallout spread?Tune in to today’s emergency episode to find out.#Iran #MiddleEast #IranCrisis #ConflictAnalysis #ACLEDFor more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

What happens when the death of a cartel leader reshapes violence across an entire country?In this special episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd are joined by ACLED Senior analyst for Latin America, Sandra Pellegrini to unpack the killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes — “El Mencho” — and the power vacuum already fuelling violence in Mexico.What comes next for cartel control, security forces, and Mexico’s wider conflict landscape?Watch tomorrow’s emergency episode to find out.#Mexico #CartelViolence #ElMencho #ConflictAnalysis #ACLED #ConflictsOfInterestFor more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

Ukraine: Frozen frontlines. Frozen homes.Four years into the war, territorial change is minimal, but renewed strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have left civilians freezing. Ranked the deadliest country in the world by ACLED’s Conflict Index, the conflict is increasingly shaped by drones and attacks far from the battlefield.Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd break down what people still don’t understand about Ukraine today.#UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Ukraine4YearsOnFor more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

What happens when Gulf rivalries travel far beyond the Middle East — and into Africa’s most fragile regions?In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd unpack how Saudi Arabia and the UAE are shaping conflicts across the Horn of Africa, from Yemen to Sudan, often through non-state actors, proxy forces, and economic leverage.The conversation explores why Saudi Arabia is frequently framed as a stabilising power, how the UAE’s interventions have contributed to instability, and why civilians continue to bear the greatest cost. Together, they examine the blurred lines between state and non-state actors, the role of external powers, and what these dynamics mean for humanitarian crises, regional stability, and the future of conflict in Africa.This episode goes beyond headlines to explain how Gulf power politics are reshaping wars — and why the consequences are long-term and deeply human.#GulfMonarchies #HornOfAfrica #SaudiArabia #UAE #ProxyConflicts #HumanitarianCrisis #NonStateActors #Geopolitics #RegionalStability #EconomicInterestsFor more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

Who decides war and peace in Gaza, and how much power does political leadership hold?In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd examine the rise of the Board of Peace and ask whether global decision-making over conflict is being centralised, with Donald Trump taking the lead.Using Gaza as a reference point, the conversation explores how current peace efforts are shaped by political leadership choices, imposed timelines, economic fixes, and elite deal-making, often sidelining justice, political consent, and local realities.The episode places the Board of Peace within the broader weakening of United Nations-led diplomacy and asks what is lost when peace becomes a matter of executive decision-making rather than negotiated political process, and what this means for conflicts still unfolding.For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

President Trump said his New Years Resolution was "peace on earth" ... others suggest it's "world domination"The US president told the New York Times that there is only one thing that can limit his global power: his own morality, adding that he does not need international law.In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd unpack what it means when global power is framed as a personal choice rather than a political or legal constraint.They explore the rapid and highly personalised use of US force — from Venezuela to threats directed at Nigeria, Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, and even Greenland. They examine what has changed in the way power is exercised, and what has disappeared: coalition-building, legal justification, and even the pretence of multilateral consent.#Trump #GlobalPower #Venezuela #InternationalLaw #ConflictTrendsFor more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

2025 marked a turning point in global conflict — not because violence suddenly appeared, but because it reached a scale, spread, and persistence that now feels like a new normal.In this year-end episode of Conflicts of Interest, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd look back at what 2025 revealed about political violence around the world. Drawing on data and analysis from ACLED, they unpack where violence was most concentrated, how it evolved across regions, and why civilians faced unprecedented levels of risk.Using ACLED’s global conflict index, we explain how violence is measured — including how dangerous, widespread, fragmented, and lethal conflicts have become — and why these indicators matter for understanding today’s security landscape. The picture that emerges is deeply concerning: more countries experiencing extreme violence, conflicts becoming harder to contain, and distinctions between war, criminal violence, and political unrest increasingly blurred.This episode breaks down the key trends that defined 2025, challenges common assumptions about where and how violence occurs, and asks what these patterns mean as the world heads into 2026.#GlobalConflict #PoliticalViolence #ConflictTrends #GlobalSecurityFor more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

With help from President Trump and Nicki Minaj, recent headlines have raised alarm about the safety of Christian communities in Nigeria, with claims that Christians are being deliberately targeted amid worsening insecurity. These narratives have travelled quickly … shaping political debate, international responses, and public understanding. But do they reflect the full picture of violence in the country?In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd examine what the data actually shows. Drawing on analysis from ACLED, they explore who is being targeted, where violence is occurring, and how different forms of conflict intersect across Nigeria. From insurgency in the northeast and criminal banditry in the northwest, to communal violence, kidnapping, and clashes involving state forces, civilians across religious and ethnic lines are facing growing risks.They also unpack why Nigeria’s violence is so often framed through a religious lens, and what that framing obscures. #Nigeria #PoliticalViolence #ReligionAndConflict #CivilianProtectionFor more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

Comedian Simon Brodkin once asked, ‘If I had a phone, am I more or less likely to make a call than someone without one?’ In this episode of Conflicts of Interest, Professor Clionadh Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd unpack the narratives around gun violence and political violence in the United States, and interrogate where they come from. Drawing on data and analysis from ACLED, the hosts explore the distinction between political violence and criminal gun violence, and why the two are so often conflated in public debate.The conversation looks at why Americans report feeling less safe even when certain forms of violence are declining, how high-profile attacks skew perception, and how US gun violence compares to political violence patterns seen elsewhere in the world. Rather than treating the United States as an outlier, the episode places it in a broader global context, asking what is genuinely changing, and what is being amplified by media cycles and political rhetoric.#GunViolence #PoliticalViolence #UnitedStates #PublicSafetyFor more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

Across the world, Gen Z are showing up in the streets. From mass demonstrations to sudden protest waves, young people are repeatedly mobilizing against governments they see as unresponsive, corrupt, or simply irrelevant to their lives. But a harder question lingers beneath the headlines: do these protests actually achieve anything?In this episode, Prof. Caitriona Raleigh and Dr Caitriona Dowd discuss the political impact of contemporary Gen Z protest. Pushing back against both romanticized narratives and dismissive takes, they argue that youth protest itself isn’t new, what’s new is how consistently governments seem able to ignore it. The conversation unpacks why many Gen Z movements are described as “annoying” rather than threatening, and what that label reveals about how power responds to disruption without leverage.Rather than framing young people as uniquely apathetic or disconnected from politics, the episode places Gen Z protest in a longer historical pattern: every generation protests when formal political channels stop delivering. So why do these protests keep happening if outcomes are so limited? And what would it actually take for Gen Z mobilization to translate into lasting political influence?#GenZ #YouthProtests #PoliticalParticipation #GlobalProtestsFor more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?

Get a front-row seat as two friends attempt to put the world to rights — and just happen to be world-leading experts on political violence.Conflicts of Interest, the podcast by ACLED, is coming soon.Be sure to follow so you never miss an episode.For more conversations like this, subscribe to Conflicts of Interest and watch the full episode on YouTube. Conflicts of Interest: https://www.youtube.com/@ConflictsOfInterestACLED📱 Did you know you can follow Conflicts of Interest on TikTok?