Fantasy Football for Winners

Whew. 167 episodes in 167 days. Thank you very much for listening, and thanks to those who’ve messaged me or posted a review. Have a great offseason. See you in July.

Nearly every summer, I scream at the top of my lungs, “Fade this one running back!“ And each time, the running back regresses. It’s not magic. It’s data analytics.

On a podcast episode this summer, I discussed why Caleb Williams might be this year‘s Jared Goff — a big fantasy bargain, thanks in part to an improved offense and coaching staff. Will he take another big step forward in 2026?

If you drafted an elite TE, you earned elite production. If you drafted any other TE, the results were all over the map.

I spent a lot of time this summer podcasting about screaming WR bargains and screaming WR busts. Let’s see how it panned out.

Tried to keep this episode to 12 minutes. But there was too much to discuss, including the fascinating consistency of “dead zone“ RB busts.

Only a handful of 2025 QBs have exceeded preseason expectations based on ADP. How should this shape our draft strategy heading into 2026?

Why should we expect the fantasy market to undervalue Cam Ward, Tyler Shough, and Jaxson Dart next summer?

Designed for Week 17's two late-afternoon (Eastern time) Sunday games, this DraftKings DFS lineup stacks several uber-upside players with a bunch of Raiders. Because the Giants' defense is just that beatable.

Derrick Henry is on pace to finish his career top 10 in carries and top 4 in rushing TDs. In the past 15 years or more, he’s one of only a handful of high-carry RBs who continues to excel into his 30’s.

Justin Jefferson’s 2026 preseason ADP will be one of fantasy’s most fascinating valuations.

My preseason rankings had Dak Prescott as a huge bargain. But I never expected George Pickens to go toe-to-toe with CeeDee Lamb as the Cowboys’ WR1.

I’ve discussed my research on this topic before. It’s pretty actionable, and it will have significant impacts on several fantasy RBs in 2026.

Christian McCaffrey has topped 400 touches in two different seasons. After each one, he’s been undone by injuries. He’s on pace to exceed 400 touches again.

We’ve been waiting for Trevor Lawrence to break through. The question is whether his past two games signal his arrival as a weekly fantasy starter for years to come.

Designed for the remaining Week 16 games (Sunday/Monday), this DraftKings DFS lineup assumes Indy will lean heavily on Jonathan Taylor in a must-win game, Minnesota will continue to find success through the air, and perennial journeyman Jacoby Brissett will build on one of the greatest backup fantasy QB seasons in years.

As discussed on an episode this summer, Jayden Daniels' preseason ADP wrongly assumed that his breakout rookie campaign was more of a floor than a ceiling.

I was publicly high on Colby Parkinson last weekend. I was publicly neutral on him entering last night. Here’s why, and here’s why it matters going forward.

How do we identify high-probability breakout WRs in the preseason? Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a prime example.

Based on historical data, Christian McCaffrey will underperform in 2026, and probably dramatically underperform.

Who is the most valuable Steelers RB in Dynasty, and if Pittsburgh re-signs Kenneth Gainwell, will be their first RB off the board in 2026 fantasy drafts?

As Patrick Mahomes begins his long recovery from a torn ACL, fantasy managers should brace for the strong probability that the Chiefs offense will look much different in 2026 and eildly different by 2027.

Designed for today's 4pm Eastern games, this DFS lineup assumes the Panthers' and 49ers' offenses are clicking coming out of their Week 14 byes. It also assumes most of the high-priced QBs and RBs fall flat against tough defenses.

Why Omarion Hampton is little more than a streamer in week 15.

Kyle Pitts’ NFL success has hinged on the health of his most talented teammates.yy

An elite RB approach 300 touches on a team that's going nowhere. A preseason top-12 RB in a deceptively crowded backfield. What should we expect from Bijan Robinson and Bucky Irving on Thursday Night Football?

Rarely has this opening week of the fantasy playoffs featured so many elite and near-elite QBs facing elite / near-elite pass defenses, as well as so many bottom-tier QBs facing bottom-tier pass defenses.

Jalen Hurts has been one of fantasy’s best dual-threat QBs since 2021. But since the start of October, there’s been a big shift.

About a decade ago, an injury to Carson Palmer transformed a Super Bowl contender into an offensive disaster. Is there any hope for the Colts’ primary fantasy playmakers?

Designed for today's 1pm Eastern games, these DFS lineups assume the Bills hang 30+ on the Bengals, delivering huge fantasy production either for Buffalo's passing attack (Josh Allen & co.) or running game (James Cook).

Despite a 22% per-game workload decline compared to last season, Kyren Williams remains a weekly fantasy starter. It’s counterintuitive. It’s also a yellow flag ahead of the fantasy playoffs.

There are wide-ranging fantasy implications when kickers are booting field goals from longer and longer distances.

If the injured of Amon-Ra St. Brown sits tonight, could Isaac TeSlaa bust out?

If you have Bucky Irving, you have to start him on Sunday, right? But there are several reasons why he’s far riskier than usual.

Jaxson Dart has faced increasingly strong headwinds during his rookie campaign. Here's why that's good news for fantasy bargain hunters in 2026.,

When you draft a wide receiver, you’re indirectly drafting his quarterback. For proven pairings, that might be fine. For untested pairings, it can be brutal—as we’re seeing with the Vikings.

These DraftKings DFS lineups have finished in the money three straight weeks. Let's go for four. Designed for today's 4pm Eastern games, this DFS lineup assumes the Seahawks will coast to a victory, while the Chargers will do whatever is slightly less than coasting.

I talked about it on this podcast. I wrote about it on the blog. Based on historical data, there was a greater than 90% chance that Saquon Barkley would be a bust relative to his overall-3 ADP. When we find actionable intelligence, we need to act.

Why Jahmyr Gibbs’ and Kareem Hunt’s relatively disappointing Thanksgiving performances were predictable based on historical data.

Can fantasy managers trust David Montgomery in today’s Thanksgiving game, and is he headed toward a steep decline in 2026?

Why the Ravens’ Thanksgiving game against the Bengals is a huge indicator of Lamar Jackson’s rest-of-season fantasy value.

Christian McCaffrey is on pace to becoming the 12th NFL running back with at least three 400+ touch seasons. Here’s what it might mean for 2026, based on historical RB data.

Depth chart stability helps fantasy managers predict outcomes. This year‘s WR corps appear to be more unstable than ever.

Designed for today's 4pm Eastern games, this DFS lineup assumes the Eagles take it to the Cowboys, and that my Trey McBride - Michael Wilson tandem from last Sunday will hit again.

Managers are accustomed to seeing Kansas City playing meaningful games during the fantasy playoffs. What happens if they’re out of postseason contention by Week 17?

The rest-of-season fantasy value of each Houston RB keeps changing. Should managers assume Woody Marks will lead the way in the fantasy playoffs— despite Joe Mixon refuting a report that he’s out for the season?

James Cook is on pace to becoming the most successful low-college-volume RB in the last 25 years or more. It’s also a warning sign.

The NFL wants to make money. Players want to stay healthy. Fans want to watch games that matter. Wednesday Night Football would help all three.

Between CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, who will score more fantasy points the rest of the season? The answer is much less obvious now than it was entering Week 1.

We don’t yet know what kind of careers Cam Ward and JJ McCarthy will have. But if this season is any indication, the advantage goes to the one who’s doing more with less.