Here's A Wild Thought

In this episode, the continued fall of MAGA and Trump faces his Waterloo in Minneapolis. I analyze the shift in immigration politics back to the Democrats and how they can best navigate the issue, knowing that there’s still some support for Trump’s mass-deportation ideas and that the politics have shifted against them before. What is the best way to message a plan to get rid of Immigration and Customs Enforcement if the agency no longer has the credibility to continue to exist?Also, I look at the first month of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s term, and how he managed to successfully manage a snowstorm, something that has befallen predecessors, and the even bigger crisis he now faces that could jeopardize his ambitious agenda. Get full access to Nick Rafter Writes at nickrafter.substack.com/subscribe

Election Day is tomorrow, and I have predictions!In this episode of Here’s A Wild Thought, I outline my predictions for the premier races of this off-year election, including Mayor of New York City and select competitive City Council races; New Jersey Governor; Virginia Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General and Proposition 50 in California, which would allow the state to redraw their Congressional lines to eliminate several Republican districts in retaliation for mid-decade redistricting targeting Democrats in Texas, Missouri and North Carolina. I also lay out my reasoning as to why Republicans need to get rid of the filibuster. It just needs to go, and it’s better they do it than the Democrats. Also, if you aren’t a paid subscriber to Nick Rafter Writes, November is a great time to subscribe! In celebration of reaching 100 paid subscribers, I am offering a 20 percent discount to all new subscribers until November 30. You can click here to redeem your subscription now. Don’t forget, my debut novel LOWER THAN THE ANGELS is on sale now at Amazon.com. You can get it here.Nick Rafter Writes is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Nick Rafter Writes at nickrafter.substack.com/subscribe

This weekend, New York Times reporter Ezra Klein published an op-ed video identifying one of the significant problems Democrats face nationwide—their reputation for being unable to effectively govern the parts of the country where they have control, the “blue states.”He points to housing and infrastructure as the top issues and the inability of blue states to build infrastructure on time and at cost and manage the housing and affordability crisis. Klein details issues like environmental views and regulations aimed at protecting or empowering poor communities and communities of color and how they lead to delays, cost overruns, or nothing being built.There has been a lot of discussion about why cities like my own, New York, can’t or won’t build housing. The truth is we don’t build housing because nobody wants it, and in a democracy, when there’s a consensus among the public, the government follows. Liberals don’t want to build housing, and conservatives don’t want to build housing. They each have their own “don’t build housing” solutions to the crisis, which they explore but go nowhere with. The right wants to end rent control or deport immigrants to reduce demand and increase supply. The Left wants to build only social housing to take power away from landlords whom they claim, without much concrete evidence, are artificially reducing supply to keep prices up (No one asks why they only do this here and not in, say, Texas, where this isn’t an issue). In this video, I explore the ugly truth about our inability to build infrastructure and housing and why we were able to last century. I also detail why places like New York City are so bad at building housing and why there is probably no democratic answer to this problem. It will have to be done despite not having the general public's support.Take a look. Nick Rafter Writes is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Nick Rafter Writes at nickrafter.substack.com/subscribe

It’s week three of Trump 2.0, and he and his shadow president, Elon Musk, are taking a hatchet to the federal government, causing chaos, uncertainty, and unease.Democrats and liberals, still reeling over November’s loss to Trump, are wondering why we aren’t seeing the massive marches and, rallies and organized opposition that we saw in 2017 in the opening weeks of Trump’s first term.In this episode of Here’s A Wild Thought, I break down why this time is different, why we won’t see a 2017-style resistance, and why 2005 is probably a more apt comparison to the current dynamic. Nick Rafter Writes is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Nick Rafter Writes at nickrafter.substack.com/subscribe

Congestion pricing is in effect in New York City, and no one in the city is more upset about it than the New York City media industrial complex led by the lead s**t-stirrer, the New York Post.In this episode, I discuss the media’s long history of fighting progressive transit policies and my role as a foot soldier of the press in biased fights against policies like bus lanes on Woodhaven Boulevard in Queens. I explain why progressives need to be ready for the hurdles ahead if they hope to keep the policy from being repealed by a future Republican governor and why I doubt progressives understand what they’re up against.DON’T MISS:My former colleague Ross Barkan, on the power of The New York Post, echoed similar points that I made last spring. He expands on it, diving deeper into how other media outlets allowed the Post to become the dominant voice in town. My good friend Dhaaruni Sreenivas joined the Brogressive Podcast with Max Levin and Ben Bartlett to discuss her role as a delegate in the DNC chair race. She made some interesting points about gender politics and how men who feel isolated from women due to #MeToo can, well, get over it. Matt Yglesias hosts Cartoons Hate Her, who offers a reality check to Gen Z about a heralded time before they were born and asks something I’ve been asking myself recently as I have developed some nostalgia for my childhood. Were the 1990s really that great? Get full access to Nick Rafter Writes at nickrafter.substack.com/subscribe

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Fifteen years ago, I became friends with a bunch of “dudebro” types through a coworker, and they shared with me some glaringly offensive comedy they found on the internet. While thinking about it recently, it dawned on me that these sports-loving, women-objectifying, offensive, comedy-loving dudebros were hardcore progressives at that time. Today, 25-year-olds who would fit that cultural mold would be unquestionably MAGA. There is no space in the progressive movement for men like that, and progressives and Democrats have paid a political price for it.In this episode of “Here’s A Wild Though,” I explain how we got there and how it may not be fixable without some uncomfortable shifts in progressive ideals. Nick Rafter Writes is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Nick Rafter Writes at nickrafter.substack.com/subscribe

A big part of the 2024 election post-mortem has been the debate around the television ad the Trump campaign claims as its most effective: the one that ends, “Kamala is for they/them. Trump is for you.” The ad explicitly targets the vice president’s past support for taxpayer-funded gender confirmation surgeries for prisoners in California. The political word seems to be landing on the conclusion that the ad means the Democratic Party has to back away from its support of trans rights, something that the Democrats have been unique in endorsing among left-of-center political parties in the Western World. However, while the ad is anti-trans, trans issues weren’t the primary reason the ad was effective.In this week’s episode, I explain that the ad was about more than trans people and also how Democrats can rebuild from this election loss. For one thing, I lay out how they have to repair their “cool” factor with the public, something I dove into a year ago in this article. Take a look. Get full access to Nick Rafter Writes at nickrafter.substack.com/subscribe

The election is over, and we know how it ended. In this episode, I discuss what happened and how the election result was probably inevitable years ago. Also, why have men, especially Gen Z and Latino men, swung so far to the right? Some of it is that conservatives are cool and liberals are not. I talked about in this piece last year.Have a listen! Get full access to Nick Rafter Writes at nickrafter.substack.com/subscribe

Is Kamala blowing it?With two weeks to go, the polls are tight, and Vice President Kamala Harris's momentum in September appears to have vanished. Democrats are experiencing 2016 PTSD. I explain why I think the race is closer than it was a few weeks ago (If it truly is) and what my vibes tell me about what will happen in two weeks. Get full access to Nick Rafter Writes at nickrafter.substack.com/subscribe

Hey, loyal readers! Become loyal listeners!I was writing about Eric Adams today and thought this might be better offered in podcast format. So listen to my take on Eric Adams and how someone who oozes corruption and slime like he does found himself in Gracie Mansion. Yes, I place much of the blame on progressives.Also, check out my take on Chappell Roan, the rising music star turned political speedbag who is finding out that it’s not so easy to appropriate a marginalized group while presenting as a political radical and then trying to equivocate before an election. As always, friends, don’t forget to share, subscribe, and leave a comment! Nick Rafter Writes is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Nick Rafter Writes at nickrafter.substack.com/subscribe

Fun Fact: I was in the middle of recording this video when a gunman opened fire on former President Donald Trump at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. I saw the news immediately after I finished recording. Since that event knocked the topic of whether Biden should stay on as the Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee this year off the front pages, I considered just deleting this video essay.However, Rep. Adam Schiff of California made the topic newsworthy again today, and now is a better time than ever to share my thoughts on whether Democrats are better off replacing Biden and, if they are, why the nominee should be Vice President Kamala Harris.Having spoken to a number of Democrats who are aware of what's going on behind the scenes about this in the last few weeks, it's clear there isn’t a consensus, for a multitude of reasons, on whether Biden should be swapped out with the vice president. This is a shame because it seems like an easy solution to the current problem. I go into detail about why in the video. Anyway, don’t forget to like, share and subscribe. After a few more episodes, these Here’s A Wild Though video essays will go behind a paywall, so if you enjoy them, consider a paid subscription.Nick Rafter Writes is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Nick Rafter Writes at nickrafter.substack.com/subscribe

George Latimer defeated incumbent Jamaal Bowman in the Democratic primary in New York’s 16th Congressional District on Tuesday night by a wide margin, but that wasn’t the only bad news for progressives.Here’s a post-mortem on the biggest primary night of the summer. (article to follow for paid subscribers, so subscribe below for access to that!)Nick Rafter Writes is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Nick Rafter Writes at nickrafter.substack.com/subscribe