Is It Bad For The Economy?

Is It Bad For The Economy Super Fans, We’re very sorry for the upload error this morning. Some of you could have used an Elizabeth Warren trigger warning, I’m sure. Our FULL episode is out now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Substack. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Is Trump's economy actually working — or is the data telling a different story? In this episode of Is It Bad For The Economy?, Democratic Strategist Kobi Tirey and anonymous Wall Street insider Banker Bill dig into the latest economic data: CPI inflation stubbornly range-bound at 2.6–3.3%, mortgage rates spiking back toward 6.4%, a protein basket that's as mixed as ever, and a labor force participation rate at its lowest since 1977. They cover tariff risk, demand destruction, the federal deficit, gold repatriation, Iran sanctions, Trump's stablecoin controversy, and whether a recession is already baked in. If you want the charts, the context, and the unfiltered take — this is it.🎙️ Hosted by Kobi Tirey | Featuring Banker Bill📅 Recorded April 14th, 2025 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Banker Bill wanted someone to answer for Mayor Mamdani's paradoxical housing policies, but he got more than he bargained for with our guest, Affordable NYC Housing developer Teghvir Sethi. Democratic strategist Kobi Tirey just enjoyed his popcorn. Econ 101? Supply & Demand? That's kids' stuff. This is New York: Capital Rules Everything Around Me. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Our New York housing episode is getting rescheduled to the next episode, but that gives us the perfect opportunity to catch up on Iran and ask the big questions: 1) If the conflict ended today, how long would it take for the financial consequences to work their way through the economy?2) What’s the worst-case scenario if the conflict continues to escalate?3) What would Kobi look like if he dressed as the laser background from those 80s yearbook photos? Not like, a person in the 80s who chose to have a portrait photo taken on that generic laser background, but as the actual laser background itself.Banker Bill apologizes for giving Trump a compliment, Kobi apologizes for thinking the Powell interior design witch hunt would go anywhere, and we consider what Hallmark Christmas movies can teach us about America’s economic hegemony on our latest episode, out now, as always, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Substack.Notes:Kevin Warsh’s Epstein Files Mention: https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01792909.pdfYale Budget Lab Director Martha Gimbel on how our economy is like a Hallmark movie boyfriend: This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Ever since Trump was elected, I’ve gotten whiplash from how Banker Bill’s outlook on the economy, seemingly, flails from optimistic to apoplectic. I say seemingly because he’ll tell you this is a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde situation — they’re both true.In his State of the Union speech, Trump was so defensive that he wasn’t just unbelievable, he was boring. So, of course, now, Banker Bill feels that it’s his patriotic duty to sell the American economy to you better than Trump ever could. Our latest episode is out now, as always, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Substack.Meanwhile, Democratic Strategist Kobi Tirey goes over what voters really thought of the State of the Union, and how Warner Bros.’ woke business model just might be Paramount’s undoing. LINKS:Navigator State of the Union Dial Tests -> https://navigatorresearch.org/state-of-the-union-special-report-arizona-dial-group/Manufacturers’ Total Inventories: Consumer Durable Goods -> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UCDGTIJet fuel -> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WJFUELUSGULF#Citrini -> Citadel -> https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insights/2026-global-intelligence-crisis/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Bonus Episode: Trump Declared War On Renewable Energy, and Renewable Energy Is Winning. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Democratic Strategist Kobi Tirey tries to give Donald Trump a little credit on unemployment and inflation for once, but Banker Bill isn't buying it. The dollar's weak, and a weak dollar means a weak America. At least crypto, gold, and China aren't looking any stronger. Kobi and Bill also ask, with DOJ resignations piling up, especially in the antitrust division, is this the golden age of white collar crime? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Is It Bad For The Economy Super Fans, I present to you a Fed-free, tariff-free, and most importantly, Trump-free episode of Is It Bad For The Economy, out now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Substack. We crammed all that into our emergency episode over the weekend about the highs and lows of Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s Friday. It’s the first-ever on-camera appearance of Banker Bill! In this episode, Banker Bill and I were joined by an AI true believer, Venture Capitalist, and my old friend Nick Giometti. He went deep on the current state of AI and why we need to start worrying about the economic implications now. With AI’s impact on employment possibly already showing up in the data, Nick is eager to start a policy conversation where regulation and taxes are on the table as long as innovation isn’t compromised. He’s the one man in America actually trying to think through the consequences of his actions, and those of his entire industry, ahead of time. It’s bold, it’s urgent, and it’s sincere. So, so sincere. That’s why Banker Bill and I did our absolute best to get out of his way. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Yesterday’s Friday news dump was torrential. Journalists were arrested, troubling details about the FBI’s Georgia election raid came out, Trump launched a $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS, Catherine O’Hara passed away, and, of course, Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed Chair and the Epstein files. Kevin Warsh’s day was particularly dramatic. First thing in the morning, he was nominated to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. By afternoon, he had been named in the Epstein files. Democratic Strategist Kobi Tirey and the anonymous Banker Bill break it down in an emergency episode.You can find Is It Bad For The Economy as always on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, on Substack. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Trump's DOJ is risking both a constitutional and an economic crisis by executing grand jury subpoenas to the Federal Reserve regarding perjury allegations against Chair Jerome Powell. So what did Powell allegedly lie about? A water feature, a beehive, and a garden. Democratic strategist Kobi Tirey wants you to know that this is all about interior design, and Powell could not have been more honest. Meanwhile, Banker Bill is ready for whatever happens next with a bureaucratic breakdown of every possible scenario in the race to replace Powell. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Trump invaded Venezuela for the oil, right? It might be illegal, but at least it's going to pay for itself, right? Trump tries to drink Venezuela's oil milkshake right up, while Democratic Strategist Kobi Tirey tries to blame private health insurance providers for America's skyrocketing healthcare costs on the eve of yet another shutdown. It brings Banker Bill absolutely no pleasure to report that both operations are destined to come up empty. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Compound interest might be the 8th Wonder of the World, but what if it's Trump branded? Listener Craig asks whether MAGA is just using the Trump accounts to juice the stock market before the midterms. The anonymous Banker Bill says not a chance, but Democratic strategist Kobi Tirey has a bigger question: What if all of these retirement savings we're pumping into our 401Ks by default every month is why the economy is so high on its own supply in the first place? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Is It Bad For The Economy's Banker Bill keeps an eye on Japan, says good bye to the penny, and isn't worried about Elon's package. Meanwhile, Wall Street and Trump may have given up on getting inflation back down, but Democratic strategist Kobi Tirey never will. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Wall Street Journal Trade and Economic Policy Reporter Gavin Bade joins Democratic Strategist Kobi Tirey and Banker Bill to talk about pasta tariffs, insider trading, vibe checking the 1%, and China's "cobbler elves."Read More From Gavin: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/gavin-bade This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Inflation, rising... Unemployment, growing...But this economy? She just won’t quit.Just as long as you’re employed.If you’re not? Hope you’re good with paperwork, because thanks to the shutdown and Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, applying for SNAP just became a full-time job. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

In the second part of our episode from 10/2, Banker Bill tells Democratic Media Consultant Kobi Tirey that there might be a perfectly good reason gold and stocks are up at the same time, assuming the world's central bankers know something we don't. And when Kobi asks whether the AI bubble is real, Banker Bill says, relax — if it is a bubble, and that's still a big if, it's an industrial bubble, not a financial one. Then he explains why that's not quite as bad. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Hey folks, Kobi Tirey here. I was too sick to get the full episode out on time this week, but here are the first few minutes, in which we talk about why China's playing hardball now. Our full episode, about gold and stocks rising at the same time, and Banker Bill's take that even if AI is a bubble, it's an industrial bubble, and that's a lot better than the financial bubble of 08. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Somebody's crying, but it ain't Argentina. They're getting a bailout. So are soybean farmers, but they'll be back next year. Federal furloughed employees? Forget about it. It's another episode of Democratic Media Consultant Kobi Tirey getting out of Banker Bill's way as he shreds the Trump administration for letting unemployment slip, food prices rise, and justifying a losing trade war by dual-wielding bailouts. Now finish your tofu. There are starving children in Africa who'd love to eat it, but we're not allowed to share ever since Trump DOGEd USAID. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Remember those criminal allegations that Trump's FHFA made against Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook? They weren't just frivolous, they didn't exist!Disney Blows The Kimmel Moment While The Fed Uno Reverses Mortgage Fraud — Is It Bad For The Economy Episode 14 Out Now This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

The Fed's on stagflation watch, the White House's mortgage fraud allegations have backfired spectacularly, and Stephen Miran is trying to tell us that inflation is at zero to 1% with a straight face. There's a lot to cover this week, but Banker Bill saved his harshest words for Disney CEO Bob Iger over ABC's suspension of Jimmy Kimmel. Forget about freedom of speech, think of the shareholders!Meanwhile, Democratic Media Consultant Kobi Tirey is worried that Democrats aren't fully prepared for a drawn-out government shutdown. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Unemployment's up. Inflation isn't coming down. The cracks are starting to show, and Banker Bill might be even more critical of Trump's economy than Democratic Media Consultant Kobi Tirey. But Trump isn't burying the economic numbers in distractions and deflections. He's doubling down with new tariffs and more debt. And he won't stop making the headlines with new attacks on the Fed. Why?Because if Trump can get the interest rates down low enough, he might just get away with it. If he could control interest rates, Trump would be able to run our economy hotter, prop up the tariffs, and "manage" our debt by selling bonds to ourselves. Right now, the only thing standing in the way is Jerome Powell and an independent Fed, and who knows how long that will last. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Look, if we want more Little League baseball, less load management, and a chance of finally producing 32 starting-caliber quarterbacks, we're going to have to get these fertility rates up. Like way up. The future of college football, and the NFL, just might depend on it. Banker Bill (Father) and Democratic Media Consultant Kobi Tirey (Childless Heathen) talk about how the only way to incentivize Americans to have more kids is to make America worth raising kids in again, and why that's so important in the first place. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Is It Bad For The Economy Podcast Episode 12 Wednesday 8/27  This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Democratic Media Consultant Kobi Tirey and Anonymous GSIB Banker Bill lament Trump's latest blow to our capitalist way of life: firing the BLS commissioner. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Anonymous GSIB Banker Bill learns about Dune and defends car dealerships with Democratic Media Consultant Kobi Tirey This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Did Fed Chair Jerome Powell cross the line when he renovated the Fed to the tune of $2.5 billion? Of course not, but Democratic Media Consultant Kobi Tirey sees a classic Trump witch hunt brewing, while Banker Bill thinks we need to ignore it for the distraction it is. Kobi and Banker Bill discuss the future of the Fed, the candidates to replace Powell, and worst-case scenarios. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Democratic Media Consultant Kobi Tirey doesn't need Banker Bill to know that President Trump has been horrible for housing — he couldn't be worse if he tried. But Banker Bill has his sights set on the real enemy: Not In My Back Yard NIMBYs. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Democratic Media Consultant Kobi Tirey sees an old foe rearing its head — the dreaded Vibecession. Stocks keep going up, everybody's doing okay, but do you trust it? Does Banker Bill? We go under the hood and do a deep dive on the state of Trump's economy six months in. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Democratic Media Consultant Kobi Tirey thinks that Trump's Big Beautiful Bill isn't just a disaster — it proves once and for all that Republicans aren't serious about fiscal responsibility. Banker Bill can't disagree. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Democratic Media Consultant Kobi Tirey is concerned that the massive popularity of sports betting could lead to a black swan event that brings down the entire economy. Banker and Bettor Bill says there's nothing to be worried about. One thing is for certain: Is It Bad For The Economy probably isn't going to get sponsored by DraftKings after this. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Student loan payments are back on, and Democratic media consultant Kobi Tirey is asking if we aren't better off with consumers circulating that money through the retail economy. Banker Bill wants to know why Democrats are so obsessed with forgiving debt in the first place. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Democratic Media Consultant Kobi Tirey wants to know: Is turning student debt loan repayments back on good for the economy? Banker Bill is just trying to figure out why Democrats are so obsessed with forgiving student loan debt in the first place. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Kobi thought he had Banker Bill on the ropes. Ever since Liberation Day, Banker Bill's been even more upset about Trump's policies than Kobi. But all of a sudden, when you look at the numbers, were Trump's first 100 days really so bad? Kobi, yes, unequivocally, are you crazy? But Banker Bill isn't so sure. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Not only does Banker Bill think that Trump taking on Powell would be worse economically than Liberation Day, but he also doesn't think it's a fight Trump could possibly win. That sounds great to Democratic Media Consultant Kobi Tirey, but he's starting to get deja vu. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Banker Bill thought Liberation Day would never come, that Trump's tariff talk was all bluster. Now the world has called his bluff. What's the plan, and what happens next? And is there any way to spin Liberation Day as positive for the economy (hint: probably not)? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Banker Bill never thought this day would come. Full episode available April 8th. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com

Republicans' reputation as deficit hawks is as ingrained in our political culture as it is fraudulent. But that doesn't change the fact that our national debt is as bad as it's ever been. Is the debt crisis so urgent that DOGE isn't doing enough, or is their chainsaw approach exactly what's keeping us in a destructive political debt loop in the first place? AND WHAT ABOUT INCREASING TAXES? Kobi and Banker Bill try to talk it out in our public debut. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit kobitirey.substack.com