Rethinking Democracy

Syria is in the midst of a fragile transition. Many observers see positive momentum, with new humanitarian initiatives underway and fresh funding beginning to flow. But the risks remain serious: regional spillover, deep humanitarian needs, funding shortfalls, Israeli strikes, sectarian tensions, stalled political tracks, and continued reports of abuses by multiple actors.   Where does Syria's transition really stand — and what could the war mean for its future?   In this episode, I'm joined by Noah Bonsey, Senior Advisor at the International Crisis Group, to unpack the opportunities, the dangers, and what comes next.

Just weeks before President Trump's war began, Iran was in the midst of a powerful wave of anti-regime protests spreading across the country.   But once the war started, that momentum largely came to a halt. The conflict shifted the focus from dissent to survival and gave the regime an opening to crack down harder.   With tighter controls, heightened fear, and everyday life suddenly more precarious, people pulled back from the streets. The protests may have paused, but the resentments that fueled them haven't gone anywhere.   To unpack what this war means for Iran's democracy movement — both inside the country and in the diaspora — I'm joined by an exceptional guest, Nazanin Boniadi.   Nazanin is an Iranian-British actress and political activist, born in Iran and raised in London.

Israel's escalating campaign against Iran-backed Hizballah is rapidly turning Lebanon into one of the most unstable fronts in the wider US-Israel confrontation with Iran — pushing an already fragile state to the brink. The war is tearing at Lebanon's sectarian and political fabric, displacing Shiite communities and deepening polarization between Hizballah and its rivals. The government that came to power in February 2025 on a wave of optimism now faces a perfect storm. What does this mean for Lebanon — a country long seen as one of the Middle East's rare democracies? Today, we unpack how the Iran war and Israel's campaign are reshaping Lebanon's democratic future.

The war against Iran has entered its third week with no clear endgame—and no clear strategy from Washington.   At one point President Trump appeared to encourage Iranian Kurdish groups to rise up against the regime, before quickly walking it back. Meanwhile, some exiled Kurdish opposition figures say they already have an invasion plan and only need U.S. air cover.   The Kurdish question is once again at the center of regional politics. In this episode, we examine the role of Iranian Kurds in the opposition—and what this moment could mean for their future.

The balance of power in the Middle East is shifting. Iran is on the defensive — its military capabilities were badly degraded by last year's 12 days of Israeli and US strikes, and growing protests at home have made the regime look more vulnerable than it has in years. As that balance changes, a growing number of commentaries suggest that Turkey may replace Iran as the region's next destabilizing force. Much of that argument rests on the assumption that Turkey under Erdoğan shares the same Islamist agenda as Iran's theocratic regime. Today, we're going to unpack that. What are the real similarities — and the real differences — between these two countries? Not just in their current politics, but in the deeper historical structures, institutions, and ideologies that have shaped — and constrained — democracy in both. This episode was recorded on February 27, 2026, prior to the latest outbreak of war in the Middle East.

Dramatic developments in Syria have delivered a major blow to Kurdish ambitions for self-rule. In a rapid offensive, Damascus moved into northeast Syria, forcing the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) out and effectively dismantling the autonomous region the Kurds had built during the civil war.   For the Kurds, this is more than a battlefield setback—it is a historic turning point. The Syrian uprising opened an unprecedented window: a long-repressed minority governed itself, gained international legitimacy through the fight against ISIS, and helped reignite Kurdish nationalism across the region. That experiment is now unraveling.   So what does this mean for the future of the Kurds—not only in Syria, but across Turkey, Iraq, and Iran? Does the collapse of Kurdish autonomy weaken Kurdish nationalism, or deepen it? And what comes next for the Kurdish struggle for rights, representation, and democracy?

Long before the Gaza war erupted in 2023, a broad consensus had already taken hold across policymakers, activists, and foreign-policy circles: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was at a political dead end. The Oslo framework—and the promise of a two-state solution—had steadily lost credibility as a realistic path forward.   Since Hamas's October 7 attacks, the devastation in Gaza and the accelerating realities on the ground have made a two-state outcome even harder to imagine. And yet, it remains the default language of Middle East diplomacy. Most recently, UN Secretary-General António Guterres reaffirmed his determination to oppose Israeli actions undermining the two-state solution and called for renewed momentum toward Palestinian statehood.   So is the two-state solution still viable—or has it become a diplomatic reflex disconnected from reality? And if it's no longer achievable, what alternatives exist?   In today's episode, we unpack the debate over what comes next—and what a democratic, rights-based future for Israelis and Palestinians could actually look like.

Iran is once again at a boiling point.   For more than a week, nationwide protests have shaken the country, with tens of thousands pouring into the streets of major cities, including Tehran. As calls for the regime's removal spread, authorities responded with internet blackouts and force. Videos show government buildings ablaze across multiple cities, while human rights groups report at least 28 protesters killed since late December.   These are the largest demonstrations Iran has seen since 2022, when the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody ignited a nationwide uprising. This time, the unrest comes as the Islamic Republic is unusually exposed—still reeling from a bruising 12-day war with Israel last summer. What does this moment mean for the regime's survival? How is this wave of protests different from those that came before? And is there anything the outside world can do to support Iran's pro-democracy movement without backfiring?   On today's episode of Rethinking Democracy, we dig into what may come next—for Iran's rulers and for the millions of Iranians challenging them.   Recorded January 9, 2026

The Trump administration has released its new National Security Strategy—and analysts say it signals a decisive break from America's role as the leader of the free world. Instead, the document advances an openly illiberal, strongman-centered vision of power. One former U.S. official goes further, arguing the strategy doesn't merely abandon democracy promotion—it puts Washington in the business of promoting autocracy.   Democracy and human rights are pushed aside. Allies are treated more harshly than autocrats. The concern is that this shift will accelerate democratic erosion at home while giving authoritarian leaders abroad a freer hand.   So how deep is the crisis in American democracy? Is Trump's America now exporting autocracy? And what responsibility do other democracies have to push back—both within their own borders and toward the United States?   In this episode of Rethinking Democracy, we unpack America's democratic decline—and what the rest of the democratic world should do about it.   Today's guest is Dr. Amanda Sloat, Professor of Practice at IE University in Madrid and a former senior US government official.   Recorded December 10, 2025

Thousands of Tunisians marched in the capital last week against what they called 'injustice and repression,' accusing President Kais Saied of cementing one-man rule through the police and judiciary. The protest is part of a wider wave of unrest—journalists, NGOs, fractured political parties, doctors, bankers, and transport workers all say Saied has turned the country into an open-air prison and demand relief from Tunisia's deepening political and economic crisis.   Fourteen years after Mohamed Bouazizi's self-immolation ignited the Arab Spring and briefly made Tunisia its brightest democratic hope, the country has slid back into autocracy under Saied's rule. In today's episode, we'll unpack why Tunisia's democratic transition derailed—and what the future holds for the country's pro-democracy voices.   Our guest is Dr. Youssef Chahed, a Senior Fellow with the Harvard Kennedy School's Middle East Initiative who served as Prime Minister of Tunisia from 2016 to 2020.   Recorded November 26, 2025

Iraqis have just gone to the polls in a pivotal parliamentary election that could redefine the country's political trajectory. What do the results tell us about the state of Iraqi democracy? What happens next? And is there still space for meaningful democratic reform? In this episode of Rethinking Democracy, Gonul Tol speaks with Renad Mansour, Senior Research Fellow at Chatham House and Director of the Iraq Initiative, to unpack the election's aftermath, Iraq's deeply fragmented political landscape, and the entrenched system of corruption, elite bargaining, and ethno-sectarian power sharing. Recorded November 14, 2025

For years, Israeli populist politicians have chipped away at the country's democratic guardrails. But the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023 accelerated Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's drive to consolidate power. The kind of societal pushback that once blocked his efforts to expand executive authority is now under severe strain. Israel's multi-front conflict with Iran, Hamas, and other Iranian proxies has blunted protest movements and sidelined those who once filled the streets in defense of democracy. Defending checks and balances has been eclipsed by wartime priorities.   Dahlia Scheindlin, a political analyst and fellow at Century International, and author of The Crooked Timber of Democracy in Israel: Promise Unfulfilled, joins host Gönül Tol to discuss how the October 7 attacks have transformed Israel's political landscape, and what the future may hold for its democracy.

For much of the past eighty years, the United States has seen itself — and often acted — as a global champion of democracy. Through the power of example, and through its diplomacy, security alliances, and aid programs, Washington has sought to strengthen democratic institutions and push back against authoritarianism. The record, of course, has never been perfect. The US has at times backed autocratic leaders in pursuit of strategic or economic gain. But overall, it has been a net force for democracy worldwide. Today, that legacy is in question. A new administration is challenging democratic norms at home while dismantling the very tools once used to support democracy abroad. Thomas Carothers, director of the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins the program to look at how the Trump administration is reshaping global democracy — and what scholars and analysts should be watching to understand the full impact of Trump's policies on democratic trends around the world.

Once hailed as a rare democracy in the Middle East, Lebanon has now slipped into the ranks of closed autocracies. Decades of corruption, sectarian rule, and foreign meddling have left the country reeling — and the past year brought assassinations, mass displacement, and Israel's full-scale war against Hezbollah in the south. With its economy in free fall and its political system on life support, Lebanon stands at a crossroads: could shifts in regional power, efforts to disarm Hezbollah, and a change in leadership pave the way for recovery, or will instability deepen? Featured Guests: Randa Slim Senior Non-resident Fellow, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced and International Studies (SAIS) Foreign Policy Institute Ayman Mahanna Executive Director, Samir Kassir Foundation (SKF)

Turkey's main opposition, the CHP, is facing its toughest test yet: mass arrests, sham court rulings, and the ouster of key leaders—including Istanbul's mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Erdoğan's chief rival. With trials looming that could replace CHP leadership with government loyalists, the party warns of a legal 'coup.' What does this crackdown mean for Turkey's fragile economy, its 2028 elections, and the future of democracy itself? We break it down in this episode of Rethinking Democracy with featured guests Selva Demiralp, Professor of Economics at Koç University, and Seda Demiralp, Assistant Professor of Politics and International Relations at Işık University. Recorded September 8, 2025

Could this be the beginning of a new chapter for Iran's foreign policy—and for its pro-democracy movement? Gönül Tol speaks with Dr. Vali Nasr, one of the world's leading experts on the Middle East, to unpack the aftermath of the 12-Day War. Together, they examine the war's domestic and regional fallout, the resilience of Iran's regime under fire, and the shifting public sentiment that may shape the country's political future. Does survival alone count as success for Tehran? And what becomes of protest movements and democratic aspirations when a nation is consumed by existential external threats? 

With Bashar al-Assad ousted and Syria entering a new political chapter, what comes next for a country ravaged by war, repression, and sectarian divisions? Gonul Tol speaks with Steven Heydemann (Smith College) and Radwan Ziadeh (Arab Center Washington DC) about the challenges of transitional justice, prospects for democratic reform, and the role of Syria's new de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharah. Can a centralized government model provide inclusive governance? What kind of support—or interference—should Syrians expect from foreign powers? And is the international community serious about democracy, or merely stability? Recorded June 12, 2025

The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has announced it will disband and end its decades-long armed insurgency. Is this a turning point in Turkey's century-long conflict with its Kurdish population—or a political maneuver to secure President Erdogan's grip on power? Gonul Tol is joined by Kurdish MP Ceylan Akca and political scientist Murat Somer to unpack the stakes of this historic shift, the demands for constitutional recognition, and whether peace is possible in a country where democracy itself is under threat.

President Donald Trump's recent visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE reignited debate over U.S. ties to authoritarian regimes. But the controversy underscores a deeper question: why has democracy struggled to take root in the Arab world? In this episode of Rethinking Democracy, host Gonul Tol sits down with Dr. Fawaz Gerges, Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and author of "The Great Betrayal: The Struggle for Freedom and Democracy in the Middle East," to unpack the cultural, structural, and geopolitical forces that continue to block democratization across the region. 

Neoconservatives and MAGA isolationists are locked in a battle for the soul of Republican strategy. Nowhere is the split more glaring than over the Middle East: hawks view it as a proving ground for American power and allegiance to Israel, while isolationists see only endless wars that have bled America dry. Where does Trump fall in this tug-of-war? What are the real-world consequences of this struggle—for Ukraine's survival, Gaza's future, and the fate of nuclear diplomacy with Iran? In this episode, Gönül Tol speaks with Bill Kristol—founding director of Defending Democracy Together and editor-at-large at The Bulwark—to unpack the ideological realignment underway in US foreign policy. Recorded April 25, 2025

Ukraine faces a pivotal year in its fight against Russian aggression — and for its democratic future. With fears mounting that President Trump could abandon peace talks with Kyiv and Moscow, the risk grows that US disengagement could tip the balance toward Russia and fracture the global democratic order. Is Ukraine's resistance a last stand for democratic values in Europe? How should the democratic world respond as political will in Washington fades? In this episode of Rethinking Democracy, host Gönül Tol is joined by Ivan Krastev, permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, and Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign affairs correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, to explore what Ukraine's struggle reveals about the resilience — and fragility — of democracy worldwide. Episode recorded April 16, 2025.

Turkey has plunged into turmoil after authorities arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, President Erdoğan's strongest opponent, on charges of corruption. Mass protests, the largest in over a decade, have erupted nationwide after İmamoğlu was removed from office and jailed just hours before the opposition was set to declare him its presidential candidate. Political scientists warn this is a defining moment for the future of democracy in the country. Is it indeed a turning point? How did we get here and where do we go next? In this episode of Rethinking Democracy, experts break down Turkey's latest turmoil and what it means for the country's democratic future and democracy worldwide. Dr. Karabekir Akkoyunlu, research associate at the Department of Politics and International Studies at SOAS University of London, and Dr. Senem Aydın Düzgit, professor of International Relations at the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences at Sabancı University in Istanbul, join host Gönül Tol to explore the challenges and possibilities that lie ahead for Turkey. Episode recorded March 28, 2025

For the first time in decades, the question of how Syria will be governed is wide open. The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime at the hands of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an armed Islamist group with former ties to al-Qaeda, has left Syria in uncharted territory. Its de facto leader, Ahmed Al Shaara, has pledged a vision of a pluralistic Syria governed by civil institutions rather than dictatorship or ideology. But can Syria's new rulers deliver on that promise? Will this moment mark the beginning of an inclusive, secular democracy, or will Islamist rule take hold? And can Syria's fractured society—divided by years of war and sectarian tensions—unite around a new national identity? Dr. Olivier Roy, Professor of Political Science at the European University Institute, and Ziad Majed, Professor of International Relations at the American University of Paris, join host Gonul Tol to explore the challenges and possibilities that lie ahead for Syria.

Last month, the US electorate voted President-Elect Donald Trump back into the White House. His victory was seen by some experts as part of a global trend and a move towards anti-incumbency attitudes and populism. How will Trump's rhetoric impact the United States domestically and internationally? Will he govern as a strongman during his second term? What can we expect to be different from his first term? Dr. Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow of Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University and author of Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency, and Ruth Ben-Ghiat, Professor of History and Italian Studies at New York University and author of Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present, join host Gonul Tol to discuss Trump's election.