The Argentina Brief

Argentina’s recovery under Javier Milei is hitting new headwinds. The macro story still points to stabilization, but the data is getting messier: activity contracted in February, wages are still lagging inflation, and declining tax revenues are raising fresh questions about the sustainability of the budget surplus. Francisco Aldaya and Daniel Politi look at whether the economy has stalled and why so many Argentines feel their lives have gotten worse. They also dig into a more fragile political landscape, with slipping approval ratings, internal tensions, and corruption scandals testing Milei’s promise to be different from Argentina’s traditional political class.Allie Lazar joins to explain why fall may be Buenos Aires’ most wonderful (and riskies) season, puzzle over Argentina’s surprisingly poor showing in a global steakhouse list, and question what these rankings really tell us in the first place.(00:00) Intro (00:43) Fran's Brief(02:37) Dan's Brief(03:59) Dan's Number(05:14) Fran's Number(07:05) Economics Deep Dive(13:48) Politics Deep Dive(24:05) The Intersect(37:52) La SobremesaRecorded on May 3, 2026

Full thread on X: [https://x.com/ArgentinaBrief/status/2050714621095387519]-Government confidence index hits lowest level since September, dropping 12.1% in April to 2.02 points — equivalent to Milei mustering roughly 40% of the vote if elections were held today.-Bondholders increasingly focused on post-Milei risk, with October 2028 bonds trading 360 basis points above 2027 paper as the market prices in potential policy reversal after his term.-Milei presents 20 charts defending his record at Fundación Libertad dinner, highlighting fiscal turnaround from 15% deficit to 0.2% surplus and inflation down from 289% to 33%.-Vista Energy posts strong Q1 results with $865 million revenue and $694 million net income, up 58% year-over-year.-YPF approves 10-for-1 stock split to boost retail participation, while Genneia-Edison submits top bid for Transener privatization.The tension between improving economic fundamentals and declining public confidence — can Milei sustain the reform agenda through 2027? Let us know what you think in the comments!