The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy

The ten-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.50 percent, but core inflation is still running hot and consumer sentiment just hit a fresh record low. So why isn't the bond market pushing yields higher? Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers: the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.40 percent, the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.64, and the surprising calm in long-term yields. They look at what the bond market is pricing in — a soft landing, maybe a cut late this year — and whether that optimism is justified. Lucas points to the wedge between short-term and long-term yields as a signal that the market believes the Fed's current stance is tight enough to eventually slow the economy, even if inflation hasn't cooperated yet. Luna asks whether the bond market is being too patient, and they discuss what could break the calm: a supply shock, a geopolitical event, or another inflation surprise. Episode 13 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #BondMarket #TenYearYield #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FOMC #TreasuryYields #Investing #ConsumerSentiment #SoftLanding #BreakevenRate #FedFundsRate #CentralBanking #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Russell 2000 has surged 3.4 percent in the past five days, while the S&P 500 gained just 1 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack why small caps are suddenly leading—and what it means for the Fed's next move. With the federal funds rate stuck at 3.64 percent and core CPI still creeping up, the market is betting that rate cuts are coming, but the data tells a different story. They drill into the mechanics: small caps are more sensitive to domestic growth and borrowing costs, and the recent yield curve dynamics are creating a tailwind. But if inflation doesn't cooperate, this rally could be fragile. A focused look at one of the most interesting divergences in markets right now. #SmallCaps #Russell2000 #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #RateCuts #Inflation #CoreCPI #YieldCurve #BondMarket #StockMarket #FOMC #Economics #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #MarketDivergence #DomesticEconomy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into a surprising paradox: as the AI economy booms, blue-collar wages are rising faster than white-collar ones—and the Fed is stuck at 3.64% while inflation creeps higher. Using fresh CPI and PCE data, they explore why this shift complicates the Fed's rate path, and why the bond market is sending mixed signals with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.56% even as breakevens tick up. They also discuss how the war in Iran and a new UK-Gulf trade deal are reshaping energy markets, adding another layer of uncertainty for the Fed. With consumer sentiment at a record low, the hosts ask: can the Fed hold its course, or will it be forced to cut rates to support a nervous economy? A focused look at the intersection of AI, labor markets, and monetary policy. #AIEconomy #BlueCollarWages #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #CPI #PCE #BondMarket #YieldCurve #KevinWarsh #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #LaborMarket #EnergyPrices #IranWar #ConsumerSentiment #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The AI economy is rewriting the American Dream, and blue-collar workers may be the biggest winners. Lucas and Luna dig into new data showing a surge in wages for jobs like electricians, machinists, and warehouse technicians, even as white-collar coding roles face pressure. They connect the trend to the Fed's rate dilemma: with core CPI still sticky at 335.4 and the ten-year breakeven inflation rate at 2.40, the Fed is stuck at 3.64 while inflation expectations inch up. Lucas argues this wage bifurcation is a structural shift that keeps inflation stickier than models predict. Luna asks whether the AI boom is finally spreading beyond tech hubs into heartland factory towns. The episode ends with a forward-looking question about whether the Fed's data-dependent approach can account for this kind of structural change. #AIEconomy #BlueCollar #WageGrowth #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #CoreCPI #BreakevenInflation #LaborMarket #StructuralShift #FedStuck #FOMC #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheFedPodcast #WageBifurcation Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The Fed has held the federal funds rate at 364 for months, but inflation isn't cooperating. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest CPI and PCE data to understand why core inflation is still rising, what the bond market is signaling, and how the war in Iran is complicating the Fed's outlook. They discuss the gap between headline and core CPI, the 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticking up to 2.40%, and what that means for the neutral rate debate. With consumer sentiment at a record low and small caps surging, the hosts explore whether the economy is sending mixed signals—or just painful ones. Listeners will come away with a clearer picture of why the Warsh Fed seems stuck, even as prices creep higher. #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #Inflation #CoreCPI #PCE #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #BondMarket #YieldCurve #ConsumerSentiment #SmallCaps #IranWar #Economics #FOMC #BreakevenInflation #NeutralRate #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the puzzle of the Fed holding its policy rate at 3.64 percent while both CPI and core CPI ticked up in April. They explore what that 0.3 percent monthly core CPI increase means for the Fed's credibility, how the bond market is signaling via the two-year Treasury yield hovering at 3.59 percent, and why the 10-year breakeven inflation rate moving to 2.40 percent suggests traders aren't buying the 'transitory' narrative anymore. They also touch on how the consumer sentiment record low from last week ties into the central bank's dilemma. No broad history lesson — just a sharp, data-driven look at the specific moment the Fed faces this May. #FederalReserve #Inflation #CPI #CoreCPI #MonetaryPolicy #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #BreakevenInflation #ConsumerSentiment #KevinWarsh #FedFundsRate #InterestRates #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Economy #CentralBanking #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — the longest stretch since the 1970s. Lucas and Luna dig into what this inverted curve actually means for the economy in May 2026, with the Fed holding at 3.64 percent and inflation still sticky. They break down the gap between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury, now about 30 basis points, and why this indicator hasn't triggered a recession yet. The episode looks at how Kevin Warsh's Fed is navigating a bond market that keeps the curve flat, and what it might take for a re-steepening. Specific numbers include the 2-year yield at 3.59 percent, the 10-year at 4.56 percent, and the fed funds rate at 3.64 percent. #YieldCurve #InvertedYieldCurve #KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #BondMarket #Treasury #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #Recession #Inflation #Economics #InterestRates #TenYearTreasury #TwoYearTreasury #CentralBanking #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 6 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo zooms in on the Russell 2000, which surged 3.4% in the past week even as the Fed keeps rates at 3.64%. Hosts Lucas and Luna explore why small-cap stocks are outperforming the S&P 500, what the bond market's reaction tells us about economic expectations, and whether this rally can survive a consumer sentiment at a record low. They also touch on the 'AI economy' rewrite of blue-collar work and what it means for smaller companies. A focused, numbers-grounded conversation for anyone trying to read the Fed's next move. #Russell2000 #SmallCaps #FederalReserve #InterestRates #KevinWarsh #BondMarket #ConsumerSentiment #Inflation #AIEconomy #BlueCollarJobs #MonetaryPolicy #StockMarket #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedPodcast #MarketRally #YieldCurve Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine the stunning collapse in consumer sentiment to a fresh record low in May 2026, driven by the Iran war and soaring inflation expectations. They break down the latest data—CPI at 332.4, core CPI at 335.4, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dipping to 2.39%—and discuss what this means for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. With the Fed holding rates at 3.64% and the bond market already punishing the central bank, Lucas argues the sentiment data may force Warsh to choose between fighting inflation and supporting the economy. Luna challenges whether consumer mood really matters for monetary policy, but Lucas counters with historical evidence that the Fed cannot ignore a sentiment collapse of this magnitude. They also touch on the AI economy narrative and how blue-collar job gains could complicate the Fed's outlook. A tight, data-driven conversation on the most important economic story right now. #ConsumerSentiment #RecordLow #IranWar #Inflation #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #MonetaryPolicy #CPI #CoreCPI #BreakevenInflation #BondMarket #FedFundsRate #AIEconomy #BlueCollarWorkers #EconomicData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

In this episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine the market dynamics shaping Kevin Warsh's first week as Fed chair. The ten-year Treasury yield sits at 4.59 percent, the five-year at 4.26 percent—a steep curve that signals bond vigilantes are watching every move. With core CPI ticking up to 335.4 and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate dipping to 2.39 percent, the hosts discuss whether Warsh can balance market credibility with economic growth. They revisit Ed Yardeni's prediction that the Fed must hike in July and explore how the new chair's hawkish reputation may already be priced in. A specific, numbers-driven conversation about the tension between central bank independence and bond market discipline. #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #BondMarket #BondVigilantes #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #TreasuryYields #Inflation #CPI #CoreCPI #BreakevenInflation #EdYardeni #CentralBanking #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedChair Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Episode 3 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy. As Kevin Warsh prepares to be sworn in as Fed chair on Friday, the bond market is already sending a clear signal. Lucas and Luna break down the economic data—CPI at 332.4, core PCE at 129.3, and the ten-year breakeven inflation rate sliding to 2.44 percent—and explain why the Fed's effective rate of 3.64 percent might not be enough to satisfy the so-called 'bond vigilantes.' They explore the history of the term, from the 1990s to today, and examine how a new chair inherits a market that is skeptical, not panicked. If the Fed has to raise in July, as some strategists predict, what does that mean for the curve, for mortgages, and for the political pressure on an incoming chair? One concrete angle, drilled deep. #KevinWarsh #FederalReserve #BondVigilantes #InterestRates #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #CPI #CorePCE #BreakevenInflation #TenYearTreasury #BondMarket #FedFundsRate #Economics #CentralBanking #Finance #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

When Ed Yardeni says the bond vigilantes will force the Fed to hike rates in July, markets listen. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the mechanics behind the recent sell-off in longer-dated Treasuries, the 4.57 percent ten-year yield that has traders rethinking the path of monetary policy, and what incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh inherits from a fixed-income market that is increasingly calling the shots. They look at the five-day jump of 25 basis points on the long bond — the ten-year has climbed from 4.32 to 4.57 percent this week alone — and ask whether the FOMC can hold steady at 3.64 percent when the bond market is pricing in a higher term premium. Specific numbers, one concrete mechanism (the term premium repricing), and a clear takeaway: the bond vigilantes are not a metaphor anymore. #BondVigilantes #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #EdYardeni #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #TreasuryYields #TermPremium #TenYearYield #Inflation #MarketDiscipline #Economics #Macro #CentralBanking #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FixedIncome Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

On May 19, 2026, Kevin Warsh prepares to be sworn in as Federal Reserve chair on Friday, inheriting a central bank under siege from bond vigilantes. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.66 percent, up 4.1 percent in just five days, and inflation projected to hit 6 percent in Q2, markets are pricing in a rate hike as early as July. Lucas and Luna break down what Warsh's appointment means for monetary policy, why the bond market is forcing the Fed's hand, and how the new chair's past at the Fed and on Wall Street shapes his approach. They discuss the April CPI reading of 332.4 — up from 330.29 — and what it signals about sticky inflation. This episode of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo launches with a deep dive into the most consequential Fed transition in a decade, asking whether Warsh can restore credibility before the vigilantes force a policy error. #FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #InterestRates #BondMarket #Inflation #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #BondVigilantes #TreasuryYields #CPI #CentralBank #Economics #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedChair #RateHike #10YearTreasury Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo