Three Clowns

Ep. 21 — GameStop wants to buy eBayApple yanked the Nasdaq higher while energy cratered, and speculative beta went full gremlin. Then the weekend dropped a jaw-dropper: GameStop floating a $56B swing at eBay. Big macro week ahead with ISM Services and Friday’s jobs report lining up to punch or prop those rate-cut dreams.Today's stories:Intro: Split tape, Apple levitates, meme merger shocker.The Tape: Apple does all the heavy lifting; energy pukes on "de-escalation"; beta sprays into silver/Bitcoin.The Footnotes: Sticky PCE, ISM Prices Paid on deck, Fed boxed in; travel sentiment dinged by a cruise-ship hantavirus headline.The Nerd Corner: AI’s real bottleneck is power — flow batteries, nuclear/PPAs, and why electrons aren’t priced in.The Calls: Scoreboard carnage and three fresh takes for today’s close.The Calls:Tom: Apple closes red, down ~1%.Ray: Silver ETF finishes up at least 2%.Alex: 20-year Treasury yield closes up ≥15 bps from the open.New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 20 — AI Receipts: Google Delivers, Meta StumblesThe market finally asked AI to show the receipts. Google delivered hard cash, Meta got punished for promising spend without payback, and Microsoft learned that even triple-digit AI growth has a bar. Plus: oil whipsaws while energy stocks rally, and the yen move lights up gold.Today's stories: Intro: “Evidence of dissatisfaction,” AI patience runs out, and why the market wants cash now, not vibes later. The Tape: AI fractures into winners and waitlists; Google prints, Meta stalls; AMD vs. Nvidia risk repricing; energy stocks rise even as crude fades; Apple pre-market pop. The Footnotes: Yen intervention boosts gold, Starwood freezes redemptions, private credit flexes with SpaceX, Petrobras output hits records. The Nerd Corner: AI only “works” when it hits your customer’s opex—why usage-based cloud revenue is the real ROI signal. The Calls: Scorecard, then fresh bets on QQQs, energy, and small caps.The Calls: Tom: QQQs close ~1% red today. Ray: Energy ETF finishes up at least 1%. Alex: Russell 2000 closes down at least 1.2%.New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 17 — Higher Yields, AI Split WidensYields are pressing the market, oil is acting like a tax, and the AI trade is finally picking favorites. Nvidia holds the cash-flow crown while AMD eats the punishment, banks catch a bid, and defensives get dunked — all as Powell’s (maybe) last presser looms and Warsh-watch heats up.Today's stories: The Tape: Nvidia vs. AMD split, banks up/defensives down, oil rips as a hedge while energy equities lag, crypto trades like high-beta duration. The Footnotes: Dalio warns on Kevin Warsh, consumer confidence at 10am, Japanese insurers step back from JGBs — a structural push toward higher-for-longer. The Nerd Corner: Inference economics, CUDA lock-in, rising power costs, nuclear PPAs, and why battery supply chains (hello, Congo cobalt) now set the multiple.The Calls: Tom: QQQs close red, about -1% (he’s wrong if Powell nudges yields under 4.20%). Ray: 10-year finishes above 4.35% (he’s wrong if the Fed highlights clear labor cooling). Alex: AMD closes above $320 (he’s wrong if Nvidia guides down AI server pricing and drags chips).New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

<p><strong>Ep. 16 — AI Boom Runs Into Fed Week</strong></p><p>Intel and Meta just poured fresh fuel on the AI fire, sending semis flying — but Brent back above $107 and Powell's last meeting this week are about to test that euphoria. We break down a narrow tape crowding into chips while the rest of the market tiptoes around rates, oil, and dollar plumbing. Who blinks first: AI capex or the 10-year?</p><p><strong>Today's stories:</strong></p><ul><li>Intro: AI rally vs. rates and $107 oil — setting up a collision course ahead of the FOMC.</li><li>The Tape: Mega-cap AI leads while cyclicals, small caps, and healthcare lag — how narrow is too narrow?</li><li>The Footnotes: Hormuz still shut, Brent >$107, Gulf dollar-funding stress, and what that means for the Fed.</li><li>The Nerd Corner: Hyperscalers, multiples vs. the 10-year, nuclear PPAs, and where the AI story could crack first.</li><li>The Calls: Three fearless (or foolish) predictions headed into a stacked week.</li></ul><p><strong>The Calls:</strong></p><ul><li>Tom: QQQ closes red (~-0.75%). Wrong if the 10-year drops back under 4.25%.</li><li>Ray: 10-year finishes above 4.35%. Wrong if Dallas Fed data craters and triggers a safety bid.</li><li>Alex: Nvidia closes green (≥ +0.5%). Wrong if NVDA finishes red.</li></ul><p>New episode every weekday before US market open.<br/>Find us on <a href="https://threeclowns.co">threeclowns.co</a> | <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@ThreeClownsPod">YouTube</a> | <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@threeclownspod">TikTok</a> | <a href="https://x.com/threeclownspod">X</a></p><p><em>Produced using AI-generated voices.</em></p>

Ep. 15 — Oil At 104, Gold SlipsOil keeps ripping and Brent kisses 104 while gold stalls — not your usual fear trade. Tech wobbles, AMD rips, defensives rally, and the market screams rotation over panic. We sort out what actually matters for cuts, cash flows, and the AI tape.Today's stories: The Tape: Oil’s five-day rally, backwardation, defensives up while gold slips — rotation, not fear. The Footnotes: Man Group’s $6B redemption, private credit liquidity mismatch, prediction markets’ spillover risk. The Nerd Corner: AMD “event vol” vs. Intel “existential vol” — and what it means for semis. The Calls: Three spicy closes on NVDA, gold ETF, and QQQs.The Calls: Tom: Nvidia closes above 202; wrong if the 10-year pushes through 4.35%. Ray: Gold ETF finishes below 428; wrong if DXY loses momentum early. Alex: QQQs close above 658; wrong if the 10-year grinds past 4.35%.New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 14 — Oil Spikes, AI Rally TestedIran seizes more ships in the Strait of Hormuz, oil jumps, and futures wobble after all-time highs powered by AI megacaps. Can tech hold when the physical world gets more expensive, or does the bond market quietly break the party?Today's stories:Intro: Record AI highs collide with Hormuz seizures and an energy shock.The Tape: Mega-cap concentration vs. flat rates; crypto proxies rip while coins slip; airlines and shipping feel the squeeze.The Footnotes: Gold bid alongside QQQs, Fed swap-line whispers, Panama Canal congestion, EM stress.The Nerd Corner: It’s still a rates trade—duration math, oil → breakevens → 10-year drift, and the FICO toll-booth risk.The Calls:Tom: Nvidia closes down at least 3% today. I’m wrong if it closes up, or even flat.Ray: DXY closes up at least 0.4% today. I’m wrong if the dollar closes down or flat.Alex: 10-year yield closes below 4.25% today. I’m wrong if it closes above 4.30.New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 13 — Oil Shock, Ceasefire Trade CollideOil's supply math says "billion-barrel hole," headlines say "ceasefire" — and the market is trying to price both at once. Gold whipsaws, bonds sniff a sticky inflation floor, and tech splits between non-optional AI plumbing and consumer squeeze. Plus: Tim Cook steps aside, John Ternus takes Apple’s wheel, and VW pushes edge AI into cars.Today's stories:Intro: Markets cheer a ceasefire while oil’s supply shock refuses to vanish; gold snaps back; tech splits.The Tape: Oil rips, then slips; gold bounces; small caps and utilities drag; yields grind up; AMD/MSFT bid vs. Apple/Google offered.The Footnotes: Vitol’s billion-barrel hole, Iranian tankers rerouting, Ukraine restarting a Russian pipeline, and BHP locks iron ore prices with China.Nerd Corner: Edge AI in cars (VW) vs. cloud AI; Apple’s Ternus era signals device-first strategy; where AI dollars actually land.The Calls: Three fresh predictions on semis, the 10-year, and WTI — with clear invalidations.The Calls:Tom: Semiconductor ETF closes up at least 2% by Friday. Invalidation: crude closes below $75.Ray: 10-year yield closes the week above 4.35%. Invalidation: PCE prints cool enough to let the Fed breathe.Alex: WTI crude closes above $82 by week’s end. Invalidation: WTI closes below $78 by Friday.New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 12 — Warsh Hearing Could Flip MarketsTwo prints and one hearing could reset the whole week — Retail Sales at 8:30 and Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair testimony at 10. Small caps just beat megacaps while oil screamed then stalled; is this real rotation or a three-day duration trade?Today's stories:The Tape: small caps vs megacap AI, “AI on trial,” oil pops then pausesThe Footnotes: peace-talk headlines vs tanker reality in Hormuz; stagflation risk if Warsh leans hawkishThe Nerd Corner: rare earths deal and Detroit-to-defense — contracts, margins, and timelinesThe Calls:Tom: QQQs close ~1% lower.Ray: Gold ETF finishes +1% or more.Alex: 10-year yield closes above 4.35%.New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 11 — Oil Rips, Bonds Price RecessionFriday was a broad risk-on rip. Then Sunday night the US seized an Iranian ship, oil went up five percent, and futures went the other way. The question: was Friday real, or are we walking into a growth scare with energy inputs spiking? The bond market is voting recession — yields are falling while oil is ripping, which is not the inflation trade. It's the "something breaks" trade.Today's stories:The Tape: Friday breadth with gold and silver both up; AMC +15% on squeeze dynamics; crypto moving with equities (Schwab's 0.75% crypto wires TradFi and crypto into the same risk pipes); low-vol ETFs already under scrutiny before Iran blew up the weekend.The Footnotes: Johns Hopkins: Iran can sustain this for months, not weeks — changes the structural math for traders. Hormuz as a plumbing nightmare for 20% of global oil and European LNG. Asia private credit wobbling; Philippines central bank begging banks to hedge FX.The Nerd Corner: What it actually costs to keep a data center running when the grid tightens (4-7¢/kWh locked vs 15-25¢ marginal). AI at 35x earnings is a duration trade, not a defensive one. Crypto correlation with equities: it's one trade, and it only works when nothing moves.The Calls: First daily-format episode — calls expire at today's close, not next week.The Calls:Alex: QQQs close below 645 — day one of geopolitical escalation, tech gets squeezed harder than energy gains.Tom: Nvidia closes red and underperforms the QQQs — duration punished, energy is a tax on everything they're selling.Ray: Russell 2000 down more than 1.5% — rate-sensitive, rising input costs, no AI narrative to protect the multiple.New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 10 — S&P 7,000, Yields Won't QuitThe S&P tags 7,000 as AI semis rip — while the 10-year quietly creeps higher. Oil whipsaws on ceasefire talk, gold won’t blink, and systematic flows keep shoving money into the same ten names. Are we seeing real strength or just a very polite liquidity event?Today's stories:The Tape: All-time high with 250+ decliners; TSMC beat powers AMD; 10-year at 4.309% while stocks rally; oil yo-yos ~5% on ceasefire headlines; regulators probing pre-Trump-post trades.The Footnotes: Gold near ATHs despite lower war premium; oil execs lobby vs market headlines; UK moves to decouple electricity prices from gas.The Nerd Corner: TSMC’s guide as the upstream “receipt”; why AMD popped while NVDA didn’t; the next AI bottleneck is power, not chips.The Calls: Our scoreboard carnage and why daily calls start Monday.The Calls:Tom: Parlay — 10Y > 4.35% and NVDA < 186.68 by Friday; both legs fading.Ray: 10Y at 4.42% by today’s close; he taps out, it’s not happening.Alex: QQQ > 625 by Friday; still on track unless the sky falls.New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 9 — AI Rally Ignores Rising YieldsGeopolitics vanished from the screen in 48 hours and the market ran straight back into AI — even as the 10-year refuses to drift lower. Tech ripped, industrials slumped, and gold's "all-clear" unwind didn't stick. We dig into whether this AI productivity story is real earnings or just a rate bet in new clothes.Today's stories:The Tape — AI-led tech pop while the 10-year creeps higher; gold and oil snap back pre-market; banks print on trading as industrials lag.The Footnotes — Crypto proxies surge on vibes; airline mega-merger chatter as a distress signal; private credit’s “volatility dampening” and the appraisal-to-exit gap.The Nerd Corner — 25% of the S&P can now quantify AI benefits — why the equity math still lives and dies by the discount rate.The Calls — Scoreboard on rates, NVDA, QQQs, and a very narrow 10-year range getting tested.The Calls:Tom: Needs the 10-year to back up ~7 bps and Nvidia to drop 6–7% — theory intact, market uncooperative.Ray: Ep. 8 call for 4.15% is drifting the wrong way; legacy 4.42% from Ep. 5 still out there — two stories, neither hitting today.Alex: QQQ $625 by Friday looks comfy at $639; but his 10-year 4.22–4.28 range is already flirting with the ceiling.New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 8 — House And Fire InsuranceTech and AI ripped while gold and silver screamed higher. The market bought risk and bought protection at the same time — like closing on the house and the fire insurance in one afternoon. We unpack the two clocks driving that split and who gets squeezed next.Today's stories:The Tape: Cuts chatter boosts AI, metals surge, oil sinks — two clocks, one market.The Footnotes: Ceasefire whispers, SEC loosens retail trading limits, BlackRock inflows vs. bearish fund managers.The Nerd Corner: Why prediction markets could be a trillion‑dollar truth machine — and the observer effect risk.The Calls: Three bond paths, one NVDA downside bet.The Calls:Tom: 10-year back above 4.35% by Friday and Nvidia closes down 5%+ from here.Ray: 10-year tags 4.15% by Friday on a "peace dividend" squeeze.Alex: 10-year settles 4.22%–4.28% by Friday — ceasefire meets sticky services.New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 7 — PPI Decides Risk-On or HedgeRisk-on party, gold buying insurance. Today’s PPI is the arbiter: does the rally get confirmed, or do the hedges win and the tape flips? We unpack Monday’s backwards market and what a hot vs. cool print means for AI, energy, small caps, and the 10-year.Today's stories:The Tape — Small caps beat megacap, energy lags despite oil, gold up on a "risk-on" day.The Footnotes — Core PPI as the tell; oil/ships/insurance stickiness; private credit relief; EM stress and the 10Y stuck at 4.30%.The Nerd Corner — The rate–AI trade, 4.45% as the cliff, MSFT vs AAPL sensitivity, BTC as the liquidity canary.The Calls:Tom: If PPI prints hot, NQ gives back at least half its pre-market gains by the close.Ray: 10-year at 4.42% by Friday (episode 5 call stays on).Alex: QQQ closes the week above 625 — AI bid buys the dip.New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 6 — Oil Hits $100, AI ShrugsOil ripped back to $100 on a tighter Hormuz, futures are bleeding, and yet NVDA/AMD are green pre-market. Are we watching AI capex win a staring contest with physics, or is the market again pricing a ceasefire-shaped off-ramp that doesn’t exist?Today's stories:The Tape — Energy dumps even as crude pops, financials wobble on yields, silver outperforms gold, and AI stays bid while futures slide.The Footnotes — Silver’s “industrial demand” signal vs. oil’s cost shock, banks in a stagflation squeeze, and PPI as tiebreaker.The Nerd Corner — From Hormuz to CPI to the 10-year to AI multiples: the math chain and a 4.45% yield “tell.”The Calls — Scoreboard of misses, then fresh bets on NVDA, the 10-year, and QQQ.The Calls:Tom: NVDA closes green today.Ray: 10-year breaks 4.40 before the close.Alex: QQQ closes below 600.New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 5 — CPI Hits As Oil SurgesCPI lands before the bell while oil keeps grinding higher — not just on headlines but on real capacity damage and a tanker-fee threat. Amazon ripped 5.5% on no news, energy stocks fell even as crude climbed, and gold tapped 440 then flinched. Did the market just buy the right story a day early?Today's stories:The Tape: AMZN rips on duration, oil up while XLE sinks, BTC up/COIN downThe Footnotes: Gold taps 440 and backs off; tanker-fee threat; Saudi capacity hitThe Nerd Corner: Why oil up and energy equities down signal a supply shock — and what the curve is saying about multiplesThe Calls: NVDA levels on hot/cool CPI, 10-year next week, and AMZN as a duration proxyThe Calls:Tom: If CPI is hot, NVDA trades 168 by today’s close; if CPI is cool, 192 by Friday (nothing print = 178–186 chop).Ray: 10-year at 4.42% by next Friday as structural inflation outweighs quick-cut hopes.Alex: AMZN below 228 by Friday close if CPI beats the Cleveland Fed nowcast (4.4% headline, 2.6% core).New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 4 — Oil Crashes, AI Rallies, PCE AheadEverything ripped after oil cratered 9% and the market chose the rosiest possible read of the Fed minutes. This morning oil’s bouncing, futures are softer, and core PCE hits at 8:30 — does Goldilocks survive? Also: gold refused to flinch while crypto popped and COIN yawned.Today's stories:The Tape — A buy-everything day: oil nuked, AI led, TSLA lagged; crypto up while COIN hesitated.The Footnotes — Oil’s bounce screams positioning, not regime shift; the Fed minutes fine print wasn’t so dovish; gold holds firm; SEC eyes pre-war headline trades; Dalio says Trump–Xi is about capital flows, not soybeans.The Nerd Corner — Why 5 bps in the 10-year can swing META 6.5%: discount rates, operating leverage, and the cost of capital dressed up as an AI revolution.The Calls — Rate-sensitive trades on the line before PCE/CPI: NVDA, QQQ, and the 10-year.The Calls:Tom: If core PCE and CPI both print even 0.1 hot, NVDA finishes the week under 165.Ray: The 10-year ends the week above 4.45% — services/shelter won’t let CPI play nice.Alex: If core PCE is hot today, QQQ gives back more than half of yesterday’s gains by the close.New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 3 — Hormuz Reopens: Oil -11%, Futures RipCeasefire headlines slam oil -11% and light a fire under futures — but bonds aren't buying the euphoria. Gold holds its bid, Apple's red in a +3% tape, and the FOMC minutes loom at 2 PM.Today's stories: The Tape: consumer pain vs tech hideout; energy and gold diverge; crypto trades liquidity not macro The Footnotes: FOMC minutes setup — why 4.34% on the 10Y says "I don't believe you" Nerd Corner: oil is a headline, AI is a contract — PPAs, renewal risk, and nuclear as the baseload hedgeThe Calls: Tom: AAPL finishes red today even if QQQ stays above +2% — rotation, not a glitch Ray: Europe outperforms the S&P by 1+ pt by Friday — energy relief and record shorts Alex: Gold holds above 440 through Friday's CPI — structural shift signalNew episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 2 — Oil Squeeze, AI Bets, and CPI FridayThree oil supply shocks in one session — Saudi premiums, Ukraine drones, Hormuz — and equities just shrugged. Alex, Tom, and Ray break down the bet the market is making: AI-driven productivity outruns rising energy costs, at least until CPI says otherwise.Today's stories: Three oil shocks, stocks still green — sequencing or denial? Banks rally on fatter NIMs; Dimon's private credit warning Crypto rips, gold yawns — fear vs liquidity in one session Nerd Corner: what Dimon actually said about AI timelines and the private credit bridgeThe Calls: Tom: NVDA down 8–10% if CPI runs hot — belief stays, discount rate bites Ray: 10Y rips through 4.5% after the data — no-landing = inflation rebound Alex: Gold catches the oil move by Friday close — if it doesn't, the hedging playbook is brokenNew episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Ep. 1 — Oil Rips, Tesla Cracks, CPI LoomsOil spikes 11%, Tesla falls 5.5%, gold dumps — all on a "flat" SPY day. Alex, Tom, and Ray unpack the split-screen market: AI and chips hold firm while energy and growth names diverge, with CPI and FOMC minutes looming.Today's stories: Oil +11%: why chips held and gold sold off — real yield signal Tesla delivery miss, margins, and the $350 level everyone's watching REITs/Utilities bid on higher-for-longer; 10Y at 4.35% as floor vs ceiling Nerd Corner: AMD MI300X buzz, sovereign AI demand, and Nvidia still kingThe Calls: Tom: If AMD adds to last week's gains and NVDA pushes premarket, the AI bid is real Ray: Core CPI at 0.4% m/m = summer cut narrative dead Alex: 10Y walking toward 4.50% after FOMC minutes tests "AI is immune to rates"New episode every weekday before US market open.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XProduced using AI-generated voices.

Meet Alex, Tom, and Ray — three old friends who talk markets before the US opening bell every morning. This is episode zero: who we are, what we do, and why we started.Find us on threeclowns.co | YouTube | TikTok | XThis episode was produced using AI-generated voices.