Eigen Values

This is a short video to accompany the main article (link below) that dispels the myth that renewables are cheap.We have a long way to go if even consumer champion Martin Lewis blames high electricity bills on gas, when the full cost of renewables is much higher than gas-fired electricity.We need to stop this industrial-scale gaslighting of the public.Thank you for watching and listening. Please like, share and subscribe to receive more content. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Last month I gave a talk to Sacred Cows. This is the video of the event and the main argument is summarised below.Climate Change ExaggeratedAlthough people like Antonio Guterres have made the foolish claim we have entered the era of global boiling, we have to acknowledge that the world has warmed a bit since pre-industrial times. The alarmist response to this is Net Zero which is an example of a so-called mitigation strategy that calls for everyone to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide to save the planet.Mitigation Can Never WorkThe trouble with this approach is that it can only work if two conditions are met. First, mitigation can only work if CO2 is the only climate control knob. But we know this to be wrong, because the IPCC’s first report showed marked temperature fluctuations over thousand-, ten thousand- and million-year timescales when CO2 levels in the atmosphere were pretty constant. Second, mitigation can only work if everyone else follows the same strategy. But we know that global emissions of greenhouse gases are rising sharply even though ours have fallen into insignificance. Global consumption of coal, oil and gas are at record levels. Neither condition is met, so the UK’s Net Zero mitigation strategy can never work.Impact of Net Zero PoliciesNevertheless this has not stopped politicians and policymakers rushing headlong into Net Zero policies that have resulted in the UK having the most expensive industrial electricity costs in the IEA, some 4X those of the US and 2.6X Korean prices. This is leading to energy austerity with UK primary energy consumption down 23% since 1990 while global energy consumption is up 72% over the same period. Our National Energy System Operator, NESO wants to double down on energy austerity and halve our energy consumption per capita from 2023 levels by 2050.High energy prices coupled with energy austerity have led to economic stagnation. There is a strong correlation between reduced energy use and slow growth, with the EU27 and US growing faster than the UK because they have had smaller cuts to energy use. Korea, India China and the rest of the world are using much more energy and their economies are powering ahead.Myths Created to Promote RenewablesDespite the obvious economic and social costs of Net Zero, a series of myths have been created to support the renewables agenda. They claim renewables are cheap, but we pay £11bn/yr in renewables subsidies, £2.5bn for grid balancing and a further £1bn for the capacity market. National Grid have announced £112bn in spending on grid expansion by 2035 which will also find its way on to our bills. Moreover, the cost of renewables is rising and projects like Norfolk Boreas and Hornsea Project Four have been cancelled because the developers cannot make money at the prices they agreed. Ed Miliband wants to spend £260-290bn by 2030 on his Clean Power plan to save only around £7bn/yr of the money we spend on gas-fired generation.The second myth is that Net Zero will create jobs and growth. But the truth is expensive energy costs are destroying high-productivity industries like chemicals, petrochemicals, ceramics and steel that are growing more slowly than the rest of the economy or outright shrinking. Instead we are growing less energy intensive low-productivity sectors that are damaging productivity and growth for the whole economy. Green energy jobs are destroying real jobs and cost around £250K/yr per job.The third myth is that renewables increase energy security. But intermittent sources like wind and solar can never deliver security because we cannot control the weather. As a result we came close to blackouts last month as NESO suffered a margin call. We cannot rely upon interconnectors either, because the Norwegian Government fell because of the impact interconnectors are having on their electricity prices.Finally, it is claimed that wind and solar renewables are green and kind to the environment. But both have very high mineral intensity, meaning massive mines will be scarring the landscape to produce the copper, silver, cobalt and rare earth metals required. They also take up a lot of land, land that would be better utilised to grow food.Adaptation is a Superior StrategyBy contrast, adaptation is a far superior strategy. Deaths from natural disasters and weather events have fallen more than 10-fold over the past century as we have used cheap, abundant energy to tame nature. Global life expectancy has doubled since 1850 and cereal yields are up three times since 1961. These remarkable achievements have come despite, some might argue because of, the rise in temperatures and global CO2 levels.Nuclear Power is the AnswerTurning now to the answer. For humanity to thrive, we need cheap, abundant and reliable energy. This will give us the surplus energy that we need to continue to adapt by building flood defences, improving irrigation developing new crop varieties and so on. Adaptation has the big advantage is that it works regardless of the cause of global warming or climate change. The only technology that is proven to work at scale is nuclear power. This will take time, so we need gas as a transition technology. Nuclear power has the added advantage of being energy dense, reliable and requires very little mining so has the smallest overall environmental footprint. We need nuclear power everywhere all at once.In conclusion, Net Zero is ineffective in achieving its primary goal and can never stop the weather changing. The impact of Net Zero policies is devastating for the economy and high productivity, energy intensive industries in particular. Renewables are not kind to the environment and the lies being told to promote them are untenable. The Net Zero cure is worse than the climate change disease.Many thanks to Will and the team at Sacred Cows for giving me the opportunity to speak. The venue was sold out and judging by the conversations I had afterwards, the event went down very well on the night.Eigen Values is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Episode 16 of the Eigen Values podcast. This time we look the alleged rapid deployment of renewables and find that lapsed planning permissions and terminated CfDs mean that renewables are anything but quick to deploy.This is an audio version of the article that first appeared on Substack on this link:https://davidturver.substack.com/p/where-are-the-quick-renewablesThank you for listening. Please like, share and subscribe to receive more content.This will be the last podcast version for a little while. I am finding that I need to spend more and more time researching and writing and have no time left over for recording. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Episode 15 of the Eigen Values podcast. This time we look at a recent report about Net Zero from the Centre for Policy Studies and call for think tanks to start thinking again.This is an audio version of the article that first appeared on Substack on this link:https://davidturver.substack.com/p/time-for-think-tanks-to-think-againThank you for listening. Please like, share and subscribe to receive more content.Eigen Values is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Episode 14 of the Eigen Values podcast. This time we look at the Climate Change Committee’s latest demands for cuts to emissions, set them in a global context and look at their economic viability.This is an audio version of the article that first appeared on Substack on this link:https://davidturver.substack.com/p/ccc-demands-uneconomic-deep-cuts-to-emissionsThank you for listening. Please like, share and subscribe to receive more content.Eigen Values is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Episode 13 of the Eigen Values podcast. This time we bust the myth of fossil fuel subsidies by comparing the alleged subsidies with fossil fuel taxes.This is an audio version of the article that first appeared on Substack on this link:https://davidturver.substack.com/p/busting-the-fossil-fuel-subsidy-mythThank you for listening. Please like, share and subscribe to receive more content. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Episode 12 of the Eigen Values podcast. This time we look at what the projects announced at the recent international investment summit might mean for energy bills.This is an audio version of the article that first appeared on Substack on this link:https://davidturver.substack.com/p/investment-summit-to-increase-energy-billsThank you for listening. Please like, share and subscribe to receive more content.Eigen Values is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Episode 11 of the Eigen Values podcast. This time we look at how Artificial Intelligence is going to destroy the Net Zero electricity demand forecasts.This is an audio version of the article that first appeared on Substack on this link:https://davidturver.substack.com/p/ai-will-destroy-net-zero-electricity-demand-forecastsThank you for listening. Please like, share and subscribe to receive more content. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Episode 10 of the Eigen Values podcast. This time we look at how UK energy prices compare to our international competitors.This is an audio version of the article that first appeared on Substack on this link:https://davidturver.substack.com/p/uk-electricity-prices-highest-in-worldThank you for listening. Please like, share and subscribe to receive more content. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Episode 9 of the Eigen Values podcast. This time we look at rising subsidies for renewables through the Contract for Difference Scheme. August 2024 saw the third highest subsidies on record and the most ever for the month of August.This is an audio version of the article that first appeared on Substack on this link:https://davidturver.substack.com/p/record-august-cfd-subsidiesThank you for listening. Please like, share and subscribe to receive more content. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Episode 6 of the Eigen Values podcast. This time we cover the National Grid ESO’s response to the Government’s request for assistance to work out how to deliver a net zero grid by 2030.This is an audio version of the article that first appeared on Substack on this link:https://davidturver.substack.com/p/fintan-slyly-moves-the-goalpostsThank you for listening. Please like, share and subscribe to receive more content. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Episode 7 of the Eigen Values podcast. This time we cover the contradictions in Labour’s top two missions for Government. Mission number 1 is to deliver economic growth and Mission number 2 is to deliver a net zero grid by 2030. This episode will show that these two missions are mutually exclusive.This is an audio version of the article that first appeared on Substack on this link:https://davidturver.substack.com/p/mission-impossible-economic-growth-and-net-zeroThank you for listening. Please like, share and subscribe to receive more content. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Episode 6 of the Eigen Values podcast. This time we take look at apparent contracts for cronies awarded to Hornsea Project Three under the Permitted Reduction Scheme that was part of Allocation Round 6, or AR6, auction of renewable capacity. This is an audio version of the article that first appeared on Substack on this link:https://davidturver.substack.com/p/ar6-contracts-for-croniesThank you for listening. Please like, share and subscribe to receive more content. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Episode 5 of the Eigen Values podcast. This time we take look at what the results of the recent AR6 auction of renewables capacity will mean for consumers as well as the impact on the Government’s and Ed Miliband’s policy of doubling offshore wind, tripling solar and quadrupling offshore wind by 2030.This is an audio version of the article that first appeared on Substack on this link:https://davidturver.substack.com/p/what-the-ar6-auction-results-mean-for-consumersThank you for listening. Please like, share and subscribe to receive more content. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Episode 4 of the Eigen Values podcast. This week we take a look at the yawning gap between Government projections of the costs of renewables and the prices they are awarding in the allocation round auctions. This yawning gap resembles the jaws of a crocodile that will surely crush their net zero ambitions.This is an audio version of the article that first appeared on Substack on this link:https://davidturver.substack.com/p/crocodile-jaws-will-crush-net-zeroThank you for listening. Please like and subscribe to receive more content. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to Episode 3 of the Eigen Values podcast. This week we take a look at new work from the Breakthrough Institute on the material intensity of different electricity generation technologies.This is an audio-visual version of the article that first appeared on Substack on this link: https://davidturver.substack.com/p/material-intensity-electricity-generation.Thank you for listening. Please like and subscribe to receive more content. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

IntroductionA number of industry players, for instance NG ESO, are calling for more widespread use of Time Of Use Tariffs (TOUTs) to optimise electricity demand on the grid. In many markets, price signals make markets overall more efficient. However, there is a real risk that in the UK energy markets, TOUTS will be used to clobber consumers with higher prices.How do TOUTs Work in Other Markets?A good example of TOUTs is Uber. At the end of a big event like a concert, there are many people who want to leave a venue at the same time so the demand for transport services goes up. At times like this Uber raises local prices. This effects both the demand and supply side. Demand reduces as some people decide to defer their journey by going to the pub for an hour or deciding to take the Tube or walk home instead of taking a taxi. Supply rises are drivers already active switch location to the source of demand and idle drivers get into their car after deciding higher prices makes it worth their while. Eventually, the market clears at a higher price and both demand and prices fall back to normal levels as the crowd clears.How Will Domestic Electricity TOUTs Work?It is proposed that each day is divided into time slots with different prices at different times of day. Smart meters will automatically record usage by the half-hour and charge different unit rates for each timeslot. In a way, this is a development of the old Economy 7 regime where consumers could charge up their storage heaters overnight on a cheap rate and release the heat during the day to keep their house warm. This sounds OK, until you think about it a little more deeply.Consumers are being encouraged to switch to smart meters and the grid is moving towards a much higher penetration of intermittent renewables like wind and solar. The output from these generators is not controllable, except at times of very high generation and windfarms can be asked to turn off or curtail their output.There will be high-demand, low-generation scenarios, for example on a cold, calm winter evening there is no solar power and very little wind generation. In these situations, prices will rise, but no price signal will be enough to stimulate more generation from wind and solar because we cannot control the weather. Of course, this will be a signal to import more or fire-up other little-used generators, to supply power at extremely high prices to cover their costs. The idea is that consumers shift their demand to different times of the day. It may be possible to defer some demand such as overnight charging of EVs or switching off a fridge for an hour. However, very few, especially families with young children will wish to turn off their heat-pump and let their house start to cool when it is minus 5 outside. Nor will they want to delay their evening meal until after the kids’ bedtime. In effect, consumers will be clobbered by higher prices with no penalty to the generators.In a low demand, high generation scenario like a sunny and windy spring day then the market value of generation may fall to zero, or perhaps even negative. This would be an incentive to use more electricity at those times. But there are very few high demand appliances that can be turned on to consume this excess energy. The car is unlikely to be on the drive; if you are working you cannot just slip home and batch cook meals for the next week and you will not need to turn on the heating. Renewables generators will still receive the full subsidised strike price of their Contract for Difference (CfD), with consumers picking up the balance between the low market value and the strike price, as when we discussed the Agile Octopus tariff. Generators on old-style CfD contracts that are switched off will likely receive a curtailment payment. Even those on newer CfDs with less generous curtailment provisions will simply adjust their auction bids to ensure they make money overall.ConclusionsIn both scenarios the consumer loses. At times of high demand, they must pay through the nose to fire up backup generators, with little scope for making a significant dent in their demand. At times of low demand, they will have little scope to increase their power usage and still pay the full subsidised price for renewable electricity.If supply was flexible and prices not distorted by subsidies, TOUTs might make some sense. They could incentivise marginal changes in price to reduce the size of peaks and troughs in demand to make the entire system more efficient. However, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that TOUTs are being used to design the grid around the needs of producers. It is not sustainable to expect consumers to pay the price of renewables and run their lives around the needs of the grid. We should be aiming for cheap energy abundance.If you have enjoyed this podcast, please share it with your family friends and colleagues and sign up to receive more content.Eigen Values is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe

The first attempt at creating a podcast is my recent article on the contradictions in the recent Climate Change Committee progress report to Parliament. This is an audio version of the article that first appeared here:https://davidturver.substack.com/p/climate-change-committee-contradictions Get full access to Eigen Values at davidturver.substack.com/subscribe