Expat Money Matters

The global economy is somewhere between the flash and the bang. Nine weeks into the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the cushioning effects of strategic reserves and at-sea cargo are beginning to wear thin, while commodity analysts at the FT's Global Summit warn that oil at one hundred and fifty dollars per barrel cannot be ruled out. In this weekly market update we cover the practical implications for internationally mobile, cross-border investors: what the "non-linear risk" of a prolonged closure means for energy supply, why gasoline demand in the US is already down five percent year on year, and how the first wave of flight cancellations signals that the conflict is starting to reach beyond financial markets into everyday life. On a more constructive note, we look at Iran's new diplomatic proposal and what continuing negotiations might mean for oil prices. Brent crude is trading at one hundred and eight dollars, with traders pricing in risk but not panic, and the first quarter results season in the United States is running well ahead of expectations. We also address comments from the Bank of England's Deputy Governor on equity market valuations, and look ahead to a pivotal week: four central bank meetings, the Kevin Warsh Federal Reserve nomination process, and results from four of the Magnificent Seven on Wednesday alone.