Expected Volume

Matt wants to find out why people like him and it turns out that Chana is even more interested in that question. On the way, we coin some new terminology and learn about triangles. We then talk around Amanda Askell’s Paladin, Pacifist, Soldier, Scout post like we haven’t read it, because we didn’t. LINKSThe 30-60-90 Triangle: https://mathworld.wolfram.com/30-60-90Triangle.htmlSecular academy in Rome where you must speak Latin: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accademia_Vivarium_NovumRegis High School  in New York: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regis_High_School_(New_York_City)Amanda’s blog we talked around: https://askellio.substack.com/p/paladin-pacifist-soldier-scoutAs always, you can email in questions and comments at [email protected]

Matt has a lousy AI & economics theory that goes nowhere, but we elegantly pivot to talking about human zoos, early internet scholarship, babies taking their first baths, and how important it is that we “take all the galaxies and do all the stuff.” Also, should we trade with ants?Apologies for the audio (again) – Matt will do his pre-checks in the future to make sure the individual mics are working.LINKSOWID productivity charts (turns out I have a professional editor now): https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-pennworldtable?tab=lineIf anyone builds it, everyone dies: https://www.amazon.com/Anyone-Builds-Everyone-Dies-Superhuman/dp/0316595640We don’t trade with ants: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wB7hdo4LDdhZ7kwJw/we-don-t-trade-with-antsAgainst Neutrality about Creating Happy Lives: https://joecarlsmith.com/2021/03/14/against-neutrality-about-creating-happy-livesOn Future People, Looking Back on 21st Century Longtermism: https://joecarlsmith.com/2021/03/22/on-future-people-looking-back-at-21st-century-longtermismAs always, you can email in questions and comments at [email protected]

Chana interrogates Matt (because Matt hadn't prepared anything), so of course she still does most of the talking. Nevertheless, we learn about Matt's childhood, romantic strategies, and the ten characters he plays in real life, plus we hear from Chana's secret admirer. LINKSWhen “Yang” Goes Wrong: https://joecarlsmith.com/2024/01/08/when-yang-goes-wrongAella on seduction: https://aella.substack.com/p/good-at-sex-sex-as-a-status-gameBrangus on seduction: https://ratorthodox.substack.com/p/branguss-10-rules-for-sleeping-withNorm Macdonald's humor: https://youtu.be/tm-uISr3OWw?si=S8na0ypgkcEir0W5On Sincerity: https://joecarlsmith.com/2022/12/23/on-sincerityAs always, you can email in questions and comments at [email protected]

We welcome Frances, some Inkhaven residents, and local crows to tell sappy EA origin stories, and aggressive political stories before quizzing ourselves on Taylor Swift and the NFL with the best rapport and worst audio of the show so far. I'll pay an editor next time...LINKSFrances’s Blog: https://whatweare.substack.com/Matt has a blog too you know: https://frommatter.substack.com/…So [did] Chana: https://themerelyreal.wordpress.com/The Finale of Matt’s old show where he complains about compliments: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJssGodnCQgDeciding to Win: https://decidingtowin.org/As always, you can email in questions and comments at [email protected]

We bring on our first set crasher as we debate whether AI safety uber alles has hollowed out EA and whether we should retvrn to that old time religion of the classic EA trinity. Matt also now knows the 12 virtues of rationality and they hang along the stairs of his house. Other updates since recording are that Matt is probably, actually starting an EA church and Arden is engaged, like to a person, not a cause area!LINKSTyranny of structureless: https://www.jofreeman.com/joreen/tyranny.htmAs always, you can email in questions and comments at [email protected]

We’re making a list and pledging it twice, gonna find out who’s stingy and nice. This Christmas, Matt and Chana are feeling the cringe as they reflect on their turpitude of failing to get on board with the thing everyone they respect has done. We hope Bentham’s Bulldog can whip us into shape before Santa leaves coal in our too-wealthy stockings. LINKSIf you’re feeling so inspired, take the GWWC pledge! https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/pledgeTWITTER POLL on which of Chana’s incredibly obscure video games you know: https://x.com/Mjreard/status/2004092617165070833As always, you can email in questions and comments at [email protected]

Matt ponders his upcoming unemployment (circa September), lack of a system 1, and EA Holy Book concept, for which we bring in the best possible guest to discuss. Unfortunately, Taylor Swift ended up hijacking the conversation.LINKSOn Caring: https://mindingourway.com/on-caring/Unsong: https://unsongbook.com/As always, you can email in questions and comments at [email protected]

Chana vexes about whether her newfound twitter hate is her fault which unfolds into a discussion of internet main characters and how shamelessness and forecasting are connected. Also, stick around until the end for the BEST JOKE YOU HAVE EVER HEARDLINKSVpredator1000 (black or asian guy): https://x.com/VLONEPREDATORSBF tucker interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dN1CR2dyfo8Nathan’s twitter: https://x.com/NathanpmYoungNathan's Substack: https://nathanpmyoung.substack.com/As always, you can email in questions and comments at [email protected]

Matt asks for book recommendations and we end up restructuring the modern workplace, figuring out how money works, and asking whether the rationalists are happy.P.S. Chana has probably found an assistant, but I think she wants more nowLINKSPacific (book): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25816988-pacificUnreasonable Hospitality: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/60018618-unreasonable-hospitality?ref=nav_sb_ss_1_12Aspiration (Agnes Callard): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/37702276-aspiration?ref=nav_sb_ss_2_11As always, you can email in questions and comments at [email protected]

In the first episode we actually *recorded* with a girl, Chana’s boss comes on to defy gender stereotypes by focusing on topics like fashion, dating, weddings, crying, but also moths!As always, you can email in questions and comments at [email protected]/weddingattireapproval: https://www.reddit.com/r/Weddingattireapproval/Reciprocity pro link: https://buck-reciprocity.herokuapp.com/Matt’s blog about hemming and hawing about the EA label: https://frommatter.substack.com/p/ea-adjacency-as-ftx-traumaKilling the moths: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ax5PwjqtrunQJgjsA/killing-the-mothsKilling the ants: https://joecarlsmith.com/2021/02/07/killing-the-antsWe don’t trade with ants: https://worldspiritsockpuppet.substack.com/p/we-dont-trade-with-ants

We resume our popular AI in Context video review series by talking about AIC’s second video on the MechaHitler débâcle. Matt actually thought it was good! It made an argument! But we do need to sort out our relationship to the AI omnicause and figure out what the channel is for. All before we go to the Ren Faire. LINKS:AI in Context MechaHitler Video: https://youtu.be/r_9wkavYt4Y?si=VHjo8zFfouwPDrHSWe Don't Even Have to Try short: https://youtube.com/shorts/Om8KXQt6mDo?si=em3aGLayB08bQdzjScott Dwarkesh clip (in the middle of this long, worth-listening to interview): https://youtu.be/htOvH12T7mU?si=Lb8Mw2ovnuWFX_WBScott list of things he could worry about: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/book-review-if-anyone-builds-it-everyoneAs always, you can email in questions and comments at [email protected]

Matt worries he’s disqualified for being insufficiently util-simped and being too preoccupied with the ideas themselves. Julia comes on and tells cute but harrowing tales of her bright children learning about the world. Everyone tried to avoid osteoporosis.LINKS:Julia’s excellent (and excellently named) blog: https://juliawise.net/I regret that I could not find Chana’s LessWrong Declaration of Independence As always, you can email in questions and comments at [email protected]

Chana discovers anti-elitism is a current theme in US politics in this already extremely dated episode from our brief foray into conflict with Iran, a conflict which, like all others so far, we can now put in the win column of Peter Wildeford’s forecasting record. Oh, and the fire alarm goes off. As always, you can email us with questions and comments at: [email protected]

Matt is sad and grasping at topics and thereby inevitably gets squeezed out of the conversation when two teachers come on to do what they do best: gripe about teaching... and parents and protests and workouts and forecasting. Alex's Reflection on his joke paper going viral: https://lawsen.substack.com/p/when-yo...You can email us with questions and comments at: [email protected]

Chana triumphs at work with the release of her AI 2027 video, but even after two million views and 85,000 subscribers, she still has to win over her biggest critic. But to get there, she’ll have to understand what the hell he’s saying first. Watch 80k’s AI 2027 video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KVDDfAkRgc Read Matt’s lamentations here: https://frommatter.substack.com/p/sadly-80k

Are do gooders getting corrupted by prestige, or just nerdsniped? We explore that question, and, with no hint of irony, what would make good merch for the podcast.Plus! we finally have an email where you can write in with questions: [email protected] Daniel's podcast here: https://axrp.net/Daniel other podcast here: https://thefilancabinet.com/Daniel on Twitter: https://x.com/freed_dfilan

Matt can't resist talking politics and religion, but everything gets better when we pivot to Disney movies (which are allegedly based on books) featuring the great Conor Barnes of 80k Job Board fame!Conor's writing: https://parhelia.conorbarnes.com/ The Daily Show on Shrimp Welfare: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNbIKtGMoaA

Wherein we pontificate on deadlines, Kanye, market economics, and other jiggery-popery!Phil's fateful EA forum post: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/cf8Dth9vpxX9ptgma/against-much-financial-risk-tolerance

Chana wasn't sure there'd be a guest three days after we decided (read: she agreed) to do this show, but there was! ...And she showed up late anyway, so much discussion of punctuality ensued. We also cover veganism, AI, and not alcohol. LINKS:Rumsfeld! The MusicalChatGPT on the lives of factory farmed pigs All found on Andy's great blog, The Weird Turn Pro – renaming in progress, but doubtful